Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips on BHP, RIO losses, but lithium stocks LTR and PLS recharged as sector rerating continues

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 10.2 points lower, down 0.12%.

A 3% gain in the benchmark lithium carbonate contract on China's GFEX helped the ASX lithium sector to strong gains today: Liontown (LTR) (+14.8) and PLS Group (PLS) (+6.1%) were two of the best.

The broader resources sector, however, was lacklustre – BHP Group (BHP (-0.83%) and Rio Tinto (RIO) (0.93%) sagged on a second session of losses in the iron ore price; the critical minerals reversal continued, leaving Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (-3.8%) and Iluka Resources (ILU) (-3.4%) sharply lower; and the precious metals sector pulled back, leaving Newmont Corporation (NEM) (-1.4%) and Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) (-2.1%) nursing modest losses.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 10.2 points lower at 8,624.4, 0.34% from its session low and 0.12% from its high. Despite the dip in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers nudged ahead of decliners by 149 to 124.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Given the distraction of the Market Index Christmas Party on Friday, our last update on the ASX 200 a.k.a. the Old Tin Pot was on Thursday.

Before you accuse me of being remiss with respect to my responsibility of providing you daily analysis of the OTP – in my defence: Nothing’s really changed!

As “if you squint then Friday’s candle looked half-decent”, today’s candle is similarly squint-worthily decent! Small, downward pointing shadow, close there or thereabouts vs the session high... 🔍

We’ve now suffered through five nothing-much candles in a row, and taking out the credible supply-side showing on 1-Dec, a couple more before that.

"Tedious" is a word that comes to mind. "Excruciatingly boring" are a couple more. 🥱

But! Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised given that the recent strong performance of US stocks is providing daily positive leads... which are being undermined by the struggles of our major sectors as documented here each evening – Financials, Healthcare, Technology, Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and increasingly, Real Estate.

There's a bunch of index points missing from a potential strong rally there...

Can I be so bold to add that my trend ribbons are also putting a dampener on proceedings!? 😉

One thing that's becoming clearer for me is this: the next really big, decisive candle will likely dictate the market’s path of least resistance for the remainder of this year.

You can see that volume has ground to a halt: there’s very little commitment or desire among the demand and supply sides to act – so if we do see one party commit – it would be a very strong signal.

1. Santa Claus is Coming to Town Scenario = Big white candle + close on session high + ideally on above average volume to demonstrate substantial demand-side engagement (i.e., cash coming into the market) but also that it has cleared out the dead wood latent supply that very likely sits in the market all the way back up to 9116 + ideally > the short term downtrend ribbon (presently 8640-8690)

2. The Grinch Who Stole Christmas Scenario = Big black candle + close on session low + ideally on above average volume to demonstrate substantial supply-side engagement (i.e., stock coming into the market) but also that it has cleared out the latent demand that presently stands ready to “buy the dip” while 8383 holds + ideally < long term trend ribbon (presently 8545-8670)

Whatever’s in store — and as a trend follower who’s just as comfortable going short as going long, I don’t much care which outcome we get — I hope it happens soon!

View

I remain comfortable at 1/3RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%).

Key levels

8383 is the closest point of demand. A close below this price would confirm the new long term downtrend (i.e., that the bull market in ASX stocks is over! 🤯). The short term trend ribbon is the closest zone of supply (presently 8640-8690). In the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, the ASX 200 must close back above this zone to demonstrate the demand-side is back in control.

Economy

Today

• CHN November Trade Balance

  • CNY 793 billion vs CNY 670 billion forecast and 640 billion in October

  • Better than expected, shows strong demand for Chinese exports, likely on thawing relations between China and the US on the trade front.

Later this week

Tuesday

• 14:30 AUS Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Cash Rate & Statement of Monetary Policy

  • No change at 3.6% forecast

• 15:30 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock Press Conference

Wednesday

• 02:00 USA November JOTS Job Openings

• 05:00 USA 10-y Bond Auction

• 12:30 CHN November Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Producer Price Index (PPI)

  • CPI: +0.7% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% p.a. in October

  • PPR: -2.0% p.a. forecast vs -2.1% p.a. in October

Thursday

• 06:00 USA Federal Reserve December FOMC Meeting

  • -0.25% to 3.75% forecast

  • Economic projections (plus Dot Plot), and FOMC Statement also due

• 06:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell press conference

• 11:30 AUS November Employment

  • Change: +20,300 forecast vs +42,200 in October

  • Unemployment rate: 4.4% forecast vs 4.3% in October

Friday

• 05:00 USA 30-y Bond Auction

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +14.8% Liontown Resources (LTR) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.0% Terracom (TER) – Change in substantial holding (Gleneagle Securities 11.2% to 20.0%).

• +9.3% Artrya (AYA) – Second US Commercial Customer - Northeast Georgia and S&P DJI Announces December 2025 Quarterly Rebalance (S&P/ASX All Technology Index inclusion effective 22-Dec), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +6.1% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.7% Zip Co. (ZIP) – No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +5.4% Wildcat Resources (WC8) – General strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.4% Argosy Minerals (AGY) – General strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -13.6% Locksley Resources (LKY) – U.S. Investors Lead Oversubscribed $17m Placement.

• -11.5% Andean Silver (ASL) – Successful $30m Placement plus SPP.

• -8.4% Felix Gold (FXG) – Successful $18m Placement.

• -7.7% Silex Systems (SLX) – S&P DJI Announces December 2025 Quarterly Rebalance (ASX 200 inclusion effective 22-Dec).

• -5.7% Anson Resources (ASN) – ASN Signs MoU Lithium Chloride Offtake Agreement with Nusano.

Broker Moves

29Metals (29M)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.55

Atlantic Lithium (A11)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.24 from $0.23

Alcoa Corporation (AAI)

• Initiated at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $84.00

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.90

Aeris Resources (AIS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.70

Aurelia Metals (AMI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.40

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.80 from $1.70

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $44.00

Benz Mining Corp (BNZ)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.10

Challenger (CGF)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.25

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.90 from $1.60

Champion Iron (CIA)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.75 from $5.00

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.30 from $11.40

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.80 from $14.00

Carnaby Resources (CNB)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.70 from $0.80

Cochlear (COH)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $300.00

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.25 from $0.26

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Initiated at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $17.57

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00 from $16.50

Centaurus Metals (CTM)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.58 from $0.60

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.30 from $7.05

DPM Metals Inc. (DPM)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $52.00 from $49.00

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Initiated at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $7.70

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $21.05

IDP Education (IEL)

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $6.40 from $6.25

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.50 from $5.75

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.10

Image Resources NL (IMA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.13

Jupiter Mines . (JMS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.29

Karoon Energy (KAR)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70

Lindsay Australia (LAU)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.00

Liontown (LTR)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.00 from $0.65

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.39

Metcash (MTS)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.90

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Initiated at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $185.70

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.80

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $1.06 from $0.62

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.85

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.00

NRW Holdings (NWH)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.95

NEXTDC (NXT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $18.35

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.00 from $20.50

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $20.50 from $19.00

PLS Group (PLS)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.80 from $3.00

PMET Resources Inc (PMT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.45

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $0.65

Premier Investments (PMV)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $16.70 from $24.00

• Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $14.00 from $23.70

• Upgraded to positive from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $19.32 from $22.72

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.20 from $20.80

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.60 from $24.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $16.10 from $19.80

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $19.00 from $24.00

• Retained at buy at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $28.96

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $150.00 from $144.00

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $5000.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $130.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.60 from $7.20

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00 from $15.50

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.90

St George Mining (SGQ)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.20

Strike Energy (STX)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.11

Sovereign Metals (SVM)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.65

Turaco Gold (TCG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.10 from $0.80

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.00 from $6.50

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.68

Westgold Resources (WGX)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.00 from $7.40

Scans