ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 8th December

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, December 8. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. It'll wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 lower after four-day win streak

[1:40 pm] The ASX 200 is experiencing a rather quiet, rangebound session, currently down just 0.17%, off session lows of -0.45%. Market breadth is mixed, with 52% of constituents trading lower, though there are a few pockets of strength across sectors like telcos, banks, technology (which appears to be bouncing from oversold conditions), and real estate. The market feels a little lethargic, trying to stabilise from the recent drawdown, with the last five sessions featuring small price changes and tight trading ranges. Investors are expected to remain cautious ahead of major events this week: the RBA meeting on Tuesday and the Fed meeting on Thursday, which could inject volatility should we see something left field.

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Uranium stocks broadly lower

[12:13 pm] Uranium stocks have given back most of their gains over the past two days, a move likely driven by comments Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made on the "Joe Rogan Experience" podcast.

"I think in the next six to seven years, we're going to see a whole bunch of small nuclear reactors pop up," Huang said. "It's probably the smartest way to do it ... takes the burden off the grid, you can build as much capacity as you need, and you can even contribute power back to the grid."

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[11:03 am] Lithium stocks have topped the leaderboards while uranium and gold names experience a small pullback after recording broad-based gains last Friday.

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Chalice Mining fades early gains

[10:51 am] Chalice briefly rallied 7.7% ($1.88) in early trade but pulled a massive 180, now down 9.8% ($1.58).

The company released the pre-feasibility study for its Gonneville project this morning, which noted:

• Pre-tax NPV (8%) of $1.4bn, increasing to $2.0bn at spot prices

  • Base case assumes palladium prices of US$1,300/oz vs. spot of ~US$1,500/oz

• Pre-production capital costs of $820m (includes contingency)

• Stage 1 payback of 2.7 years, reducing to 2.4 years at spot

• Diversified revenue stream of 51% palladium, 22% nickel, 17% copper and 10% byproducts

• 50% of resource remains unmined and below the modelled pit shell

As I noted earlier, the PFS assumptions are more conservative this time round (vs. the August 2023 scoping study which assumed palladium prices of US$2,000/oz). However, the downward pressure may be attributed to:

• Nickel base case forecast of US$18,750 a tonne vs. current spot of ~US$15,000

• Pre-production capex of $820 million, which is relatively large vs. pre-tax NPV of just $1.4 billion

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ASX 200 flat in early trade

[10:47 am] Not a whole lot of action at the index level, with the market currently down 0.11% (vs. session low of -0.45%). Working its way through the recent low, and hanging above the key 200-day moving average.

ASX 200 daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Analysts' take on Rio Tinto

[10:02 am] Rio Tinto hosted its Capital Markets Day last Thursday, after market close. The update reinforced the new CEO’s focus on simplification, cost discipline and tighter capital allocation. Guidance skewed slightly better-than-expected for FY25, with brokers broadly welcoming the sharper execution focus. Overall sentiment was modestly positive, though investors remain attentive to how asset sales and volume growth targets will play out over the next two years.

• UBS Neutral, target raised from $130.00 to $138.00. Strategy is seen as evolutionary with a focus on volume and cost efficiency, supported by capital recycling and slightly moderated lithium expansion plans.

• Morgan Stanley Equal-weight, target maintained at $129.50. Cost-out ambitions and 2028 lithium goals land below expectations, with a slower Simandou ramp prompting discussion of potential rotation into BHP.

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52-week highs and lows by sector

[9:58 am] Here's a count of S&P/ASX 200 stocks that hit a fresh 52-week high/low last week, by sector.

• Materials: 14 Highs, 0 Lows

• Industrials: 6 Highs, 0 Lows

• Energy: 2 Highs, 0 Lows

• Real Estate: 1 High, 0 Lows

• Financials: 0 Highs, 2 Lows

• Discretionary: 0 Highs, 1 Low

• Health Care: 0 Highs, 1 Low

• Staples: 0 Highs, 1 Low

• Telecommunications: 0 Highs, 1 Low

• Utilities: 0 Highs, 0 Lows

• Technology: 0 Highs, 0 Lows

This is another data point that suggests the materials sector is in the midst of a broad breakout, following ~4 years of sideways trade. The 14 miners that tagged a 52-week high last week include:

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Analysts' take on Premier Investments

[9:48 am] Shares in Premier Investments nosedived 15.8% last Friday to the lowest level since September 2020 following a softer-than-expected earnings guidance. Peter Alexander recorded record Black Friday sales, though not enough to offset continued weakness in Smiggle and near-term challenges regarding macro pressures and broader discretionary sector softness.

• RBC Sector Perform, target cut from $19.80 to $16.10. Softer retail momentum and Smiggle weakness dominate, with valuation seen fair and the buyback providing some support.

• Morgan Stanley Overweight, target cut from $24.00 to $20.60. Smiggle UK softness and leadership gaps hit forecasts, partially offset by record Peter Alexander sales and expectations of a post-March buyback.

• UBS Buy, target cut from $24.00 to $19.00. Smiggle margin pressure drives downgrades while Peter Alexander expands its addressable market, leaving long-term upside from share price dislocation.

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Copper extends record run

[9:40 am] LME copper futures up 1.3% overnight to a record US$11,653 a tonne.

LME copper futures chart (Source: TradingView)

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National Storage REIT accepts Brookfield-GIC takeover bid

[9:28 am] National Storage REIT has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with a Brookfield-GIC consortium for a cash acquisition at a price of $2.86 per share (~26% premium).

NSR's board of directors has unanimously recommended that all shareholders vote in favour of the proposed transaction. The implementation of the scheme is anticipated to occur in the second quarter of 2026.

NSR made its ASX debut back in December 2013, with an IPO offer price of 98 cents per share and a market cap of $240 million.

Company page: National Storage REIT (NSR)

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Australian Vintage secures UK/Ireland distribution deal

[9:22 am] Australian Vintage has executed a five-year distribution agreement with Invivo & Co to represent their celebrity-backed wine portfolio in the UK and Ireland.

The partnership is anticipated to add 500,000 cases and $15 million in annual revenue to AVG, and is expected to be both margin and cash flow accretive.

For perspective, the Invivo deal represents approximately 5.8% of FY25 sales ($257 million, down 1% year-on-year).

Company page: Australian Vintage (AVG)

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Chalice completes Gonneville PFS

[9:20 am] Chalice Mining's Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for the Gonneville Palladium-Nickel-Copper Project confirmed strong economic metrics and significant future upside, despite only modelling half the known resource.

• Pre-tax NPV (8%) of $1.4bn, increasing to $2.0bn at spot prices

  • Base case assumes palladium prices of US$1,300/oz vs. spot of ~US$1,500/oz

• Pre-production capital costs of $820m (includes contingency)

• Stage 1 payback of 2.7 years, reducing to 2.4 years at spot

• Diversified revenue stream of 51% palladium, 22% nickel, 17% copper and 10% byproducts

• 50% of resource remains unmined and below the modelled pit shell

At a glance, the PFS reads well and assumptions appear relatively conservative. For perspective, Chalice released a rather abysmal scoping study back in August 2023, which was based on palladium assumptions of US$2,000/oz.

Company page: Chalice Mining (CHN)

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Gold ETF inflows reaches record highs

[9:08 am] Global gold ETF assets under management reached a record month-end peak of US$530 billion in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of inflows, according to the World Gold Council.

Here are the key takeaways from the WGC's November report.

• Record AUM and Holdings: Total global gold ETF AUM climbed 5.5% month-on-month to US$530 billion, while total holdings rose 1.0% to 3,932 tonnes, both being the highest month-end values in history.

• Regional Flow Shift: The global inflows of US$5.2 billion was largely powered by Asia (US$3.2 billion), which took the lead as North American inflows slowed down and European demand flipped from negative to positive.

• Asian Drivers: Chinese investors were the main regional driver (US$2.2 billion), encouraged by equity market weakness, a rebounding gold price, geopolitical tensions, and newly announced VAT reform that pushed investment motives toward gold ETFs.

• North America Slows: North American inflows extended their streak to six months (US$1 billion) but were subdued, reflecting a balance between a rising gold price and intensified US-Venezuela tension against cooling expectations for an immediate Fed rate cut.

• Australian Growth: Australian gold ETFs continued to expand, reaching US$6.9 billion in total AUM and netting over US$935 million YTD (Year-To-Date).

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RBA and Fed rate decisions

[9:00 am] The RBA (Tuesday) is expected to leave rates on hold at 3.60%, though commentary will likely lean hawkish following the stronger-than-expected October CPI and consumer spending data.

"The RBA will likely express caution about reading too much into the new monthly CPI showing a further rise in inflation and reiterate that it expects some of that to be temporary," noted AMP's Shane Oliver, adding that "if trimmed mean inflation in the December quarter does not fall back as we expect than a hike as early as February is possible."

In the US, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.50-3.75%, despite the latest inflation print rising to 3.0%, the highest since January. Several dissents are likely, with Miran calling for a 50 bp cut and some Fed officials advocating for no cut.

CME's Fedwatch tool currently expects a 86.2% likelihood of a 25 bp cut.

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Hassett says the Fed should cut rates

[8:53 am] National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has publicly advocated for a 25 bp rate cut at the Fed's meeting this week, which coincides with speculation that President Trump may nominate him to lead the central bank.

• Hassett stated on Fox News that the FOMC should cut rates and appears likely to do so, citing recent communication from Fed officials.

• He explicitly endorsed a 25 bp cut, expressing a long-term desire to reach a much lower interest rate.

• Trump has praised Hassett and is expected to announce his nomination for the next Fed Chair in early 2026.

Source: Bloomberg

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Apple's mass exodus

[8:50 am] The historically stable Silicon Valley giant is facing a major executive and engineering talent exodus, mostly driven by concerns over its position in the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence sector.

• Apple has seen an exceptional level of C-suite turnover, with the heads of AI, interface design, legal, and government affairs all leaving recently, reporting directly to CEO Tim Cook.

• The most concerning potential departure is Johny Srouji, the senior vice president of hardware technologies and architect of Apple’s crucial in-house chip development.

• There is a severe “brain drain” of AI talent, with engineers fleeing to competitors like Meta, OpenAI, and various startups, threatening Apple’s ability to deliver its delayed Apple Intelligence platform and Siri overhaul.

Apple just updated their leadership page ... (this is a joke btw).

This is a joke by the way

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Netflix in exclusive talks to buy Warner Bros

[8:47 am] Netflix has entered exclusive negotiations to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s film studios and streaming service in a move that would fundamentally reshape the global entertainment landscape (and probably result in higher prices for consumers).

• Netflix is offering a significant $5 billion breakup fee to secure the deal which analysts estimate could value the assets at US$75 billion.

• Transaction targets premium assets including HBO Max and franchises like Harry Potter while excluding linear cable channels such as CNN which will be spun off separately.

• Regulatory scrutiny is expected to be intense given the combined entity would hold approximately 450 million subscribers and dominate the streaming market.

Source: Bloomberg

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December quarter ASX 200 rebalance

[8:45 am] S&P Dow Jones announced its quarterly rebalance of S&P/ASX Indices after market close on Friday.

The changes for the S&P/ASX 200 Index include:

• Additions: Aussie Broadband (ABB), NexGen Energy (NXG), Ora Banda Mining (OBM), Pantoro Gold (PNR), Resolute Mining (RSG), Silex Systems (SLX)

• Removals: Bapcor (BAP), Boss Energy (BOE), Corporate Travel Management (CTD), HMC Capital (HMC), Inghams Group (ING), IPH (IPH)

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 13pts (-0.15%) as of 8:30 am AEDT. The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher but off best levels

• S&P 500 up 0.19%, down from session highs of 0.56%

• US weekly recap: Nasdaq (+0.91%), Russell 2000 (+0.84%), Dow (+0.50%), S&P 500 (+0.31%)

• Carvana, CRH, Comfort Systems enter the S&P 500, replacing LKQ, Solstice Advanced Materials and Mohawk Industries

• Netflix enters exclusive negotiations with Warner Bros. Discovery

• Copper extends record run, with LME futures up 1.2% overnight to a record US$11,653 a tonne

Catch up on all the overnight moves and news via today's Morning Wrap.