Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips but closes out strong week as lithium bulls move one step closer to realising their dream

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 24.3 points lower, down 0.28%.

It's been nearly 3-years of acute pain for lithium bulls, but something very special happened today to bring them one major step closer to realising their dream of a new bull market. It's so close... they can nearly touch it...😬🙏

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Lithium Carbonate in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 24.3 points lower at 8,807.1, 0.28% from its session high and 0.19% from its low. Despite the seemingly soggy day on the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by 148 to 130 (and this actually gradually improved through the afternoon).

Importantly, for the week, the XJO finished up 145 points or 1.7% higher, 2% from its intraweek low and 0.5% from its intraweek high.

Obviously the title of this evening's wrap teases something big happened in lithium today. You'll have to check ChartWatch below for the latest lithium technicals, but suffice it to say, it was a very good day for the lithium faithful. Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+9%) led the sector higher, with strong performances from IGO (IGO) (+5.7%), Argosy Minerals (AGY) (7.4%), Wildcat Resources (WC8) (+5.9%), and Mineral Resources (MIN) (+2.2%).

More broadly, it was also a very good/week day for the Resources Sector (XJR) (+1.2%). Boosted by those lithium stocks, as well as gold stocks which had a massive week, it logged its fifth straight week of gains. For the chartists, as can be seen in the chart below, the XJR appears to be locking in above the all-important long term trend ribbon.

ASX 200 Resources Sector Index (XJR) chart 08 Aug 2025 (click here for full size image)

There's usually a good chance that if Resources are rising, Financials (XFJ) (-1.1%) or another biggie defensive like Healthcare (XHJ) (-1.5%) is falling. It certainly was the case today – such is the nature of the Tin Pot.

One could argue though, today's dichotomy was largely earnings related and not as much sector rotation stuff (although I still believe the latter is in play!). QBE Insurance (QBE) (-8.8%) was the major drag on the XFJ as it reported worse than expected half year results. Arguably, CSL (CSL) (-4.7%) is also seeing some pre-earnings positioning (it was the key drag on the XHJ).

Between the extremes of Gold (XGD) (+2.2%)-Resources, and Financials-Healthcare, it was all a little ho-hum on a Friday afternoon. Still, this will go down as a solid, record setting week for the ASX, and it augers well for next week 🤞.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

An interesting chart (click here for full size image)

Another 🦓 day – this time ⬛, but to be fair, really only in terms of the colour of the candle.

If we investigate Thursday’s candle further, we’ll find it’s actually a very modest demand-side showing. I say this because its balance point (i.e., mid-point) is higher than Wednesday’s, and it also displays the telltale higher high and higher low of a short term uptrend (i.e., supply removal and demand reinforcement).

Clearly though, it is not a dominant demand-side showing by any means, as it still possesses a black body and it closed only roughly mid-range. In conclusion, the demand-side made some progress from Wednesday’s session, but on the day, they were far from convincing.

But there’s nothing in Thursday’s price action that is terribly at odds with the broader short term trends, price action, or candles – which remain demonstrative of demand-side control – so, we shall stay the course here.

21458 is the critical overhead point of supply. It will provide for us a huge amount of information about the resilience of the demand-side and the threat (if any) the supply-side poses. Big supply side candles from tonight (i.e., long black bodies and or long upward pointing shadows) will be a warning sign that supply is growing in influence.

In the absence of these, it’s continued par for the course / steady trudge higher, and of course demand-side candle showings would indicate the demand-supply dynamics remain very healthy indeed for this bull market.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

An interesting chart (click here for full size image)

Not the ideal showing from the demand-side today, but it was hardly a dominant performance from the supply-side either. Most of the black body of today’s candle was created after lunch. On a Friday.

I think it’s about as sinister as that… Which as per the overall length of today’s candle (i.e., not very long!) suggests little has changed with respect to the prevailing demand-supply environment dynamics. The demand-side remains very much in control here.

Ideally, 8759-8777 continues to behave as a zone of excess demand. The dynamic demand of the short term uptrend is not far beyond that (8655-8710). As long as we close above those two we are excellent, and fine respectively. Below 8655, the short term uptrend is over.

Not a bad week at all for the local bourse. Here’s hoping for a solid follow through next week…🤞

Lithium Carbonate Futures (Benchmark month, back-adjusted) GFEX

An interesting chart (click here for full size image)

A quick note because we only just covered this one yesterday – but given its near limit-up performance today, it definitely deserves another mention.

The result is another strong demand-side candle, another confirmation the short term uptrend ribbon has held and the short term uptrend has resumed, plus the consumption of the threatening 74300 point of supply.

It should now act as a point of demand going forwards, as will the short term uptrend ribbon (approx. 68775-70200). As long as the lithium carbonate price stays above those two levels it remains strong and intact respectively.

As mentioned yesterday, the elephant in the room – nay, still sitting on the price action – remains the long term trend ribbon. Ideally, we close above it, even more ideally, we log a trough in-but-preferably-above it. This will tell us the long term trend ribbon has transitioned to a zone of excess demand 🐘.

Ordinarily, it would be at this point I would call a new bull market. However, it makes sense to also wait for a close above the critical 80840 point of supply. Either way, after today's massive demand-side showing, it is clear that the near-3 year bear market in lithium is over... we're just waiting to confirm what the lithium bulls have wanted so badly for so long...

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Saturday

• 11:30 CHN Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) July

  • CPI: -0.1% p.a. forecast vs +0.1% p.a. in June

  • PPI: -3.2% p.a. forecast vs -3.6% p.a. previous

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +19.4% American Rare Earths (ARR) – Letter to Shareholders, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up.

• +18.7% Benz Mining Corp. (BNZ) – No news since 06-Aug Benz Mining Diggers and Dealers Presentation, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.1% Artrya (AYA) – Presentation - 19th Annual Bioshares Investor Conference, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.8% Meeka Metals (MEK) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +14.6% Wrkr (WRK) – Placement to Raise $15 million and Capital Raising Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +12.2% Iress (IRE) – Response to media speculation.

• +10.8% Amplia Therapeutics (ATX) – No news since 07-Aug Presentation - Targeting Pancreatic Cancer and Beyond, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +9.1% Block (XYZ) – Quarterly Report for the Quarter Ended June 30, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +9.0% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, second strong gains in benchmark GFEX lithium carbonate futures today…, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +8.7% Minerals 260 (MI6) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +8.3% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today.

• +7.1% AMP (AMP) – Continued positive response to 07-Aug AMP 1H 25 Results, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.9% Nick Scali (NCK) – NCK FY25 Results Presentation and NCK FY25 4E and Annual Report, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.3% Andean Silver (ASL) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.2% Westgold Resources (WGX) – Westgold Files Updated Technical Report and yesterday's FY26 Guidance, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.9% Wildcat Resources (WC8) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +5.7% IGO (IGO) – Director Resignation, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +5.2% WA1 Resources (WA1) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.2% Torque Metals (TOR) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.1% Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +5.1% Vection Technologies (VR1) – Vection Defence focus AI presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -14.6% GQG Partners (GQG) - FUM as at 31 July 2025, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -13.6% Avita Medical (AVH) - AVITA (AVH) Appendix 4D for H1 2025 and AVITA second quarter 2025 financial and business update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -13.2% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - Change in substantial holding.

• -11.2% Light & Wonder (LNW) - LNW Q2 2025 Earnings release.

• -10.5% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -9.0% Austin Engineering (ANG) - Change in substantial holding from Thorney International PL, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.8% QBE Insurance Group (QBE) - 2025 Half Year Results Presentation.

Broker Moves

Audinate Group (AD8)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.00

AGL Energy (AGL)

• Retained at Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.88

AMP (AMP)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.00 from $1.90

• Retained at Neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $1.60 from $1.55

• Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $2.02 from $1.80

• Retained at Neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $1.65 from $1.55

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.95 from $1.90

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.95 from $1.85

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.80 from $1.70

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $29.50 from $27.50

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $68.80 from $71.60

• Retained at Outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $73.90 from $77.60

• Retained at Sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $61.50 from $63.50

• Retained at Neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $67.50 from $69.00

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $57.10

• Retained at Sell at UBS; Price Target: $63.65 from $69.10

Amplia Therapeutics (ATX)

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.42

AVITA Medical, Inc. (AVH)

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.00 from $3.76

Accent Group (AX1)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.95

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.65

Brambles (BXB)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $23.60 from $20.15

CAR Group (CAR)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $42.50

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at Sell at Morgans; Price Target: $97.40

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.80 from $4.00

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $19.40 from $19.50

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.35

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.90 from $4.10

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.05 from $5.55

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.80

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $178.00 from $194.00

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $176.00 from $193.00

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $180.00 from $188.00

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $175.00 from $190.00

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $224.00 from $187.00

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $199.00 from $195.00

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Retained at Sell at Citi; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.50

• Downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $0.50 from $0.48

• Retained at Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.55

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.85 from $12.15

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.35

Michael Hill International (MHJ)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.75

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $37.50

Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $30.90 from $30.80

Nufarm (NUF)

• Retained at Sell at Citi; Price Target: $2.60 from $3.75

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.00 from $1.85

PlaySide Studios (PLY)

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.43 from $0.50

Perenti (PRN)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.20 from $1.90

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $26.10

REA Group (REA)

• Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $284.00 from $262.00

• Downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi; Price Target: $279.25 from $275.00

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $300.00 from $280.00

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $118.00

South32 (S32)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.45

Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.30

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Initiated at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $0.55

Westgold Resources (WGX)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.60

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.65

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.05 from $7.80

Worley (WOR)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $17.00 from $18.00

Scans