Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, S&P 500 slips but Nasdaq hits new record high + QBE, Nick Scali earnings

ASX 200 futures are down 25pts (-0.28%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• The S&P 500 eased overnight while the Nasdaq pushed higher thanks to gains from Apple

• Apple has committed US$600bn in US investments, now exempt from Trump's 100% chip tariff

• Block rallies on full-year earnings guidance upgrade, QBE and Nick Scali to report this morning

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 faded early strength to close lower (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower but off worst levels

• Today’s big story – Trump’s global tariffs took effect overnight, including a 100% tariff on chips but exemptions for those willing to invest in the US

• Apple shares lifted the market after rallying 8.4% in the last two sessions, company confirmed US$100bn investment in the US, bringing total commitments to US$600bn 

• Trump signs executive order allowing alternative assets like cryptocurrencies, private equity in 401(k)s (CNBC)

STOCKS

• Trump calls for Intel CEO resignation due to conflict of interest with Chinese businesses and personal shareholdings (CNBC)

• OpenAI unveils GPT-5 for all users, flexes abilities in writing, coding, and healthcare (FT)

• Apple lost dozen of its AI staff to rivals, highlighting difficulties staying relevant in industry talent war (FT)

• Taiwan's TSMC exempted from US chip tariffs (BBG)

• Sony raises profit forecast despite Trump's tariffs (RTE)

• Allianz boosts profit with strong insurance and Pimco performance (BBG)

• Merck cuts sales outlook amid currency headwinds (BBG)

• Maersk brushes off US tariffs to lift profit outlook (FT)

TARIFFS & GEOPOLITICS

• Trump says chip tariffs at 100% with exemptions, baseline tariffs go into effect, pushing effective tariff rate to highest level in a century (BBG)

• Trump said Apple exempt from the 100% tariff on semiconductors as it was committing to build in the US and commitment to purchase more components from US suppliers (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Bank of England cut rates by 25 bps to 4.0% but four of its nine policymakers flagged worries of higher inflation (RT)

• More Fed officials flag concerns about slowing labor market, pointing to increasingly likely September rate cut (BBG)

• PBoC boosts gold reserves for ninth straight month (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US initial job claims come in at 226,000 vs. 219,000 consensus, continuing claims at 1.97m vs. 1.95m consensus and at the highest level since Nov-21 (BBG)

• China July exports surprise to the upside, imports see biggest jump in a year (CNBC )

• Australia posts stronger-than-expected trade surplus as exports rebound (INVST)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Austin Engineering 48.2m share block trade crosses at 28 cents per share, representing 7.8% of the company (ANG)

• Blackstone in discussions to acquire IRESS with an offer north of $10 per share (AFR)

• Block reports Q2 adjusted EBITDA $891m vs. $827.8m ests, Q3 gross profit guidance of $2.6bn vs. $2.54bn ests, upgrades full-year guidance (XYZ)

• Fortescue secures syndicated term loan facility of 14.2bn yuan (A$2bn) from leading Chinese, Australian and international lenders (FMG)

• GQG Partners reports July net outflows of $1.4bn, FUM at $166.6bn vs. $172.4bn a month ago (GQG)

• Infratil and NZ Super to sell Retire Australia to Invesco Real Estate for $845m, Infratil to receive approx $300m (IFT)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Light & Wonder: ASX-listed shares slipped on Thursday after the weaker-than-expected quarterly, but NYSE-listed LNW shares tumbled 14%, also faced broker downgrades.

• AMP: AMP opened 4% lower on Thursday after its 1H25 flagged miss at the NPAT level, though underlying numbers like ROE, FUM etc. were relatively strong. The stock V-shaped its way up to a +4.7% close. I wonder if brokers will upgrade the stock off the back of this.

• BNPL: Some mixed signals here – Block reported a solid Q2 beat and full-year guidance upgrade, but US-listed Sezzle shares are down 22% after hours after guiding to softer-than-expected full-year earnings (EPS $3.25 vs. $3.43 consensus). This could weigh on a name like Zip

• QBE Insurance, Nick Scali: These are the two main reporters today. Will take a closer look at the numbers vs. market estimates on the live blog.

BROKER MOVES

• Light & Wonder downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $146 from $168 (JPM)

• REA Group upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $284 from $262 (BP)

• Vault Minerals initiated Buy with $0.55 target (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 8 Aug: Amcil (AMH) – $0.055, Argo Investments (ARG) – $0.20 

• Mon 11 Aug: Alcoa (AAI) – $0.108, Domain Holdings (DHG) – $0.088

• Tue 12 Aug: Dominion Income Trust (DN1) – $0.595

• Wed 13 Aug: ResMed (RMD) – $0.065

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

• Earnings: Block (XYZ), Nick Scali (NCK), QBE Insurance (QBE)

• IPOs: Orezone Gold (ORE) at 11:00 am

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.