ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 8th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, August 8. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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A clean week for gold miners

[1:16 pm] The S&P/All Ords Gold Index is on track to closed out the week on a five-day winning streak, up 12.8%.

Gold prices have climbed slightly higher for the week, up 1.1% to US$3,385. Though prices rallied 2.2% last Friday, after the weaker-than-expected US employment data.

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RBA set to cut 25 bps next week

[11:25 am] The RBA is set to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.60% at its 12 August meeting, according to economists polled by Reuters.

All 40 respondents in the August 4-7 poll expected the central bank to cut rates and over 90% of respondents expect another 25 bp cut in the next quarter.

Inflation eased to 2.1% last quarter, a near four-year low and towards the lower band of the RBA's 2-3% target range.

Source: Reuters

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Nick Scali earnings call highlights

[11:25 am] Nick Scali just wrapped up its FY25 earnings call. Here are the key takeaways:

• The Australian business continued strong Q4 momentum into July, driven by increased store traffic and higher conversion rates.

• Despite cost pressures, gross margins for ANZ operations are expected to hold steady around 65%.

• The New Zealand market showed a solid recovery in Q4, rebounding from a low base last year.

• Gross margins remain robust by leveraging better sourcing deals, enabling competitive pricing that supports strong sales conversion.

• UK Nick Scali stores’ performance was affected by sales team changes rather than product issues.

• UK marketing spend has been deferred until more stores are refurbished, with a focus on boosting brand recall once stores are operational.

• Sales revenue is projected to increase in Q1 2026, with plans to open five new stores throughout the year.

• UK losses are expected to continue until store refurbishments are complete and sales improve.

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QBE shares tank 5%

[11:12 am] QBE shares opened 1.1% lower ($23.17) but now down 5.1% ($22.25) despite reporting a relatively in-line result and full-year guidance. Here are the key numbers (posted from earlier):

• Gross written premium up 6% to $13.82bn vs. $13.76bn ests (0.4% beat)

• Combined operating ratio of 92.8% vs. 93.1% ests (0.3 pts better)

• Adjusted net profit up 28.3% to $997m vs. $841.3m ests (18.5% beat)

• Interim dividend up 29% to 31 cents per share vs. 31.9 cents ests (2.8% miss)

For the full-year, QBE guided to:

• Gross premiums written growth in the mid-single digits (in-line)

• Combined operation ratio of 92.5% (in-line)

• 1H25 exit core fixed income yield of 3.8%

The weakness may be attributed to factors including i) a strong run up heading into the result; ii) the lack of capital management (i.e. special dividend); iii) 1H25 exit core fixed income yield of 3.8% towards the lower end of analyst estimates.

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Nick Scali rallies to all-time highs

[11:06 am] Nick Scali is trading 9.0% higher ($20.91) after reporting a relatively mixed FY25 result. At face value, key metrics like revenue and net profit missed market expectations. But there were positive takeaways across margins, a stronger-than-expected dividend, gross margin expansion in the UK and July ANZ sales momentum.

Here are the key metrics (reposted from earlier):

• Group revenue up 5.8% to $495.3m vs. $507m ests (2.3% miss)

• Gross margin down 200 bps to 63.5% vs. Macquarie ests of 63% (0.5 pp beat)

• Underlying NPAT down 24.4% to $62m vs. $63.4m ests (2.2% miss)

• Total dividend down 11.8% to 60 cents vs. Macquarie ests of 54 cents (11.1% beat)

Nick Scali also noted:

• UK gross margin improved throughout the period with deliveries of Nick Scali product commencing in 2H. 2H gross margin 51.8%, vs 1H 45.1%

• For May and June the gross margin was 58% for the UK branded Nick Scali stores

• ANZ Group gross margin 2H 65.6%, vs 64.4% 1H. FY25 was 65.0%

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Small caps making moves

[10:57 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:28 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Nick Scali earnings slip but margins steady, dividend beat

[9:55 am] Nick Scali reported a slightly weaker-than-expected FY25 result, though there were some encouraging points on margins, dividend and July trading numbers.

• Group revenue up 5.8% to $495.3m vs. $507m ests (2.3% miss)

• Gross margin down 200 bps to 63.5% vs. Macquarie ests of 63% (0.5 pp beat)

• Underlying NPAT down 24.4% to $62m vs. $63.4m ests (2.2% miss)

• Statutory NPAT down 28.3% to $57.7m

• Total dividend down 11.8% to 60 cents vs. Macquarie ests of 54 cents (11.1% beat)

Numbers to watch: The ANZ region delivered $73.2 million net profit, offset by a $11.2 million loss for the UK business. The losses here were widely anticipated due to costs associated with refurbishing and rebranding new stories. The encouraging metric was the jump in UK margins, up 510 bps to 47.1%.

Looking ahead, ANZ written sales orders for July accelerated to 7.7% year-on-year. Losses are expected to continue in the UK until remaining stores are refurbished and individual store sales improve.

Bottom line: Net profits may look weak, but margins were strong (especially in the UK), dividends above consensus and first month of FY26 highlight sales acceleration.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Nick Scali (NCK)

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GQG reports monthly FUM decline

[9:45 am] GQG reported total funds under management of US$166.6 billion as at 31 July, down 3.3% from $172.4 billion a month ago.

"As an investment manager for our clients, we remain defensively positioned in our strategies in an effort to reduce risk within client portfolios ... As a result of this positioning, we continued to experience underperformance across all strategies as compared to their respective benchmarks year to date," the company said in the announcement.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: GQG Partners (GQG)

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Block earnings call highlights

[9:41 am] Block wrapped up its Q2 earnings call a few hours ago. Here are the key takeaways:

• Q3 and Q4 2025 are expected to show sequential acceleration in gross profit and operating income, with Q3 gross profit at $2.6bn and adjusted operating income of $460m (18% margin)

• Borrow product has 6 million monthly active users, expanding eligibility and increasing limits to drive growth

• Cash App’s post-purchase BNPL has surpassed 1 million active users, with strong growth anticipated into 2026 and beyond

• Square’s sales efforts are delivering strong returns, doubling growth rates by Q4 2025, supported by robust lifetime value to customer acquisition cost (LTV to CAC) ratios

• Full-year 2025 gross profit is expected at $10.17bn, reflecting over 14% year-on-year growth, with adjusted operating income of $2.03bn and a 20% margin

• Looking longer term, Cash App’s post-purchase BNPL will significantly contribute to growth post-2025, supported by continued strong field sales performance and healthy unit economics and loss rates for Borrow

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Fortescue secures landmark yuan-denominated loan

[9:37 am] Fortescue secured a syndicated term loan facility of 14.2 billion yuan (US$2bn) with participation from leading Chinese, Australian and international lenders.

"This is the first RMB Syndicated Term Loan of its kind by an Australian corporate – a landmark transaction that reflects the depth of Fortescue’s long-standing relationships in China," noted the company.

Executive Chairman Dr Andrew Forrest said “This isn’t just a financial transaction. It’s a signal of what is possible when partners are aligned in ambition. As the United States steps back from investing in what will be the world’s greatest industry, China and Fortescue are advancing the green technology needed to lead the global green industrial revolution."

The key loan terms include:

• Tenor: 5 years

• Interest rate: Fixed, 3.8% per annum

• Arrangers: Bank of China, Sydney branch and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Fortescue (FMG)

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Analysts take on AMP results

[9:29 am] AMP reported a mixed 1H25 result on Thursday, including:

• Revenue up 1.8% to $632m vs. $636.2m consensus (0.6% miss)

• Asset under management up 3.7% to $153.9bn

• Underlying NPAT up 9.2% to $131m vs. $138.2m consensus (5.1% miss)

Despite the revenue and NPAT miss, other key metrics like net interest margins, return on equity and costs were better-than-expected. The stock opened the session down 4.1% and spent the session trending higher, closing up 4.7%.

Here's what brokers are thinking this morning:

• JPMorgan raised target to $1.65 from $1.55, maintaining neutral; notes simplified operating model and improving adviser trends but remains cautious on S&I margin guidance due to fee pressure and ongoing litigation risk.

• Jarden raised target to $1.60 from $1.55, maintaining neutral; views S&I revenue margins as slow to recover and flags bank outlook depends on digital product traction amid legal constraints on capital return.

• UBS raised target to $1.80 from $1.70, maintaining neutral; sees business execution on track, S&I margin recovery tied to account mix, and more promising FY26 as cost programs mature, but capital flexibility limited until litigation resolves.

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QBE tops 1H25 earnings expectations

[9:26 am] QBE reported a better-than-expected 1H25 result, with the announcement noting:

• Solid momentum continued in the period, with the drag from exited lines now fading.

• The combined operating ratio improved to 92.8% from 93.8% in the prior period. The result was supported by favourable central estimate development and catastrophe experience, an encouraging outcome following recent efforts to strengthen portfolio resilience and reserve stability

The key numbers for 1H25 include:

• Gross written premium up 6% to $13.82bn vs. $13.76bn ests (0.4% beat)

• Combined operating ratio of 92.8% vs. 93.1% ests (0.3 pts better)

• Catastrophe claims ratio of 5.4%, net cost of catastrophe claims of $479m vs. catastrophe allowance of $549m

• Adjusted net profit up 25.7% to $997m vs. $841.3m ests (18.5% beat)

• Interim dividend up 29% to 31 cents per share vs. 31.9 cents ests (2.8% miss)

For the full-year, QBE guided to:

• Gross premiums written growth in the mid-single digits (in-line with market expectations)

• Combined operation ratio of 92.5% (also in-line)

• 1H25 exit core fixed income yield of 3.8%

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: QBE Insurance (QBE)

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Blackstone mulls Iress takeover

[9:14 am] Iress is in negotiations with Blackstone for a potential buyout valuing the business at around $1.9 billion, with an offer expected to exceed $10 per share, according to the AFR.

Thoma Bravo has also expressed interest, adding competitive tension to the process.

Australian-listed software companies have seen a wave of buyouts, including Infomedia ($651m), Nearmap ($1.1b), Altium ($9b), Nitro Software ($500m+), and Bigtincan (undisclosed).

Source: AFR

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What does this mean for Zip?

[9:12 am] It'll be interesting to see how Zip performs, given the strong Block and weak Sezzle results.

Block is more diversified with products like Cash App and Square, so Sezzle may have more influence on sentiment/sector look through.

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Sezzle sinks on weak guidance

[9:08 am] Nasdaq-listed Sezzle shares (de-listed from the ASX in early 2024) down 19% in after hours as a strong Q2 result was unable to offset weaker-than-expected guidance. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue of $98.7m vs. $94.9m consensus (4.0% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA of $37.9m vs. $33.3m consensus (13.8% beat)

• Full-year EPS guidance ex-items of $3.25 vs. $3.43 consensus (5.3% miss)

• FY total revenue growth guidance of 60-65% vs. 63% consensus (in line)

• FY adjusted EBITDA guidance $170.0-175.0m vs. $178.3m consensus (1.9-4.7% miss)

For a stock that's rallied ~570% in the past year, it cannot afford to miss!

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Block shares to rally on strong Q2 result

[9:05 am] NYSE-listed Block shares currently up 5.4% in after hours. Here are the key numbers for Q2:

• Revenue of $6.05bn vs. $6.30bn ests (4.0% miss)

• Adjusted EBITDA of $891m vs. $827.8m ests (7.6% beat)

• EPS up 32% to 62 cents vs. 47 cents ests (31.9% beat)

Management said "we expect to accelerate gross profit growth further in Q4, exiting the year at 19% gross profit growth, with the drivers of acceleration consistent with our prior outlook."

• Full-year gross profit guidance now $10.17bn vs. prior guidance $9.96bn (2.1% upgrade)

• Full-year operating income guidance now $2.03bn (ex-items) vs. prior guidance $1.90bn (6.8% upgrade)

"We've continued to see attractive returns on go to market spend and healthy risk loss in our underwriting products and we will continue to be data driven and prudent in our growth investments," noted the company.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Block (XYZ)

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Overnight data points of interest

[8:58 am] A few US-related economic data points of interest:

• US continuing jobless claims came in at 1.97m vs. 1.95m consensus, now at the highest level since November 2021

• More Fed policymakers flag slowing labour market, open to September rate cut (Daly, Kashkari and Cook)

• NY Fed's July Survey of Consumer Expectations noted year-ahead inflation expectations up to 3.1% from 3.0% a month ago, five-year expectations up to 2.9% from 2.6%

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Apple shares surge on tariff exemption

[8:55 am] Trump announced a 100% tariff on chip imports, but promised exemptions for countries shifting production to the US.

Apple pledged an additional $100 billion for domestic manufacturing under its American Manufacturing Program (AMP), lifting its total US commitment to $600 billion. The investment is seen as a move to avoid steep tariffs on iPhones, particularly amid new 100% chip import tariffs and escalating country-specific duties.

Apple shares have now rallied 8.5% in the last two sessions.

The funny thing is, Apple's total capex over the last four years totaled ~US$43 billion. So how on earth are they going to invest $600 billion? Does this figure include buybacks?

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Trump tariffs take effect

[8:51 am] Trump's new tariffs are now live, pushing the average US tariff rate to 15.2%, according to Bloomberg. This marks the highest effective US tariff rate in almost a century.

The EU, Japan and others have struck trade deals with different rates, while countries without a deal (e.g. Switzerland) have been hit with much higher tariffs.

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Light & Wonder shares dip overnight

[8:46 am] Light & Wonder shares slipped 2.0% on Thursday after the company reported a relatively soft Q2 result and full-year guidance. But its NYSE-listed shares fell 14% overnight (down as much as 23.5% intraday).

• Q2 revenue of $809m vs. $851.1m ests (4.9% miss)

• Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $352m vs. $351.7m ests (0.1% beat)

• CY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.43-1.47bn vs. $1.43bn ests (1.4% beat at the midpoint)

• CY25 adjusted NPATA guidance of $550-575m vs. Macquarie estimates of $612m (8.1% miss)

JPMorgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral, lowering its target price from $168 to $146. The analysts flagged concerns on the company's ability to meet its FY25 guidance.

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Good morning!

[8:40 am] ASX 200 futures are down 25pts (-0.28%) as Trump's global tariffs took effective overnight, lifting the US' effective tariff rate to the highest level in a century.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.