Investors reverted to the 'Defence Playbook' today as crude oil prices built on Friday's near-5% surge. Energy stocks enjoyed broad gains while ever-reliable consumer staples stocks also rose. Nearly everything else was left behind, with lithium stocks coming under renewed pressure as the lithium price tumbled to five-month lows.
Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.
Let’s dive in!
Today in Review
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
| ASX 200 | 8,791.3 | -0.06% |
| All Ords | 8,974.7 | -0.05% |
| Small Ords | 3,315.0 | +0.27% |
| All Tech | 2,926.1 | -0.85% |
| Emerging Companies | 2,771.4 | +0.67% |
Currency | ||
| AUD/USD | 0.6987 | +0.06% |
US Futures | ||
| S&P 500 | 7,492.0 | -0.08% |
| Dow Jones | 52,280.0 | -0.18% |
| Nasdaq | 28,773.25 | 0.00% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Sector | ||
| Energy | 10,217.7 | +1.80% |
| Consumer Staples | 13,105.4 | +0.43% |
| Communication Services | 1,645.9 | +0.39% |
| Industrials | 8,375.8 | +0.16% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 4,060.1 | +0.11% |
| Financials | 9,680.9 | -0.08% |
| Real Estate | 3,576.9 | -0.19% |
| Materials | 22,275.7 | -0.34% |
| Health Care | 26,597.5 | -0.49% |
| Utilities | 9,476.0 | -0.63% |
| Information Technology | 1,720.5 | -1.54% |
ASX 200 Intraday Chart
%20intraday%20chart_20%20Jul.png)
Markets
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 5.4 points lower at 8,791.3, 0.51% from its session high and smack–bang on its session low. As if to demonstrate how fickle our Old Tin Pot of a market is, bucking the lower close on the benchmark, advancers actually beat decliners by a modest 155 to 129 the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO).
Another flat close, and another session where sector performances diverged. Peter and Paul sort of stuff. Interestingly today:
Financials (XFJ) (-0.08%) and Materials (XMJ) (-0.34%) lost ground, albeit both modestly
There was still the 'invisible hand' juicing of prices at 14:30 – but this time it was met by a far more motivated SELL order that kicked in at 15:00. Hey, if you don't want to join them – beat them! 👊
%20intraday%20chart_20%20Jul.png)
ASX 200 Financial XFJ) intraday chart
Interestingly, the big banks looked under pressure / distribution from 14:00 in what looked like a dedicated active sector sell order that was not reflected in other sector performances.
%20intraday%20chart_20%20Jul.png)
ASX 200 Materials (XMJ) intraday chart
When the Materials sector copped its own sell order just after 3pm – the XJO's fate was sealed! Still, one could argue at -5 points it's no big deal. I'm not disputing that, but the close on the low of the candle / upward pointing shadow today's intraday price action created is NOT a vote of confidence in Aussie stocks – particularly in light of the reliable FFS that have helped protect the benchmark from worse performances over the last few weeks.
%20intraday%20chart_20%20Jul.png)
ASX 200 Energy (XEJ) intraday chart
Flows were totally defence-oriented today in light of another pop in Brent crude oil futures (up 2.9% in Asian trade today after surging 4.6% on Friday 🚀). The Energy (XEJ) (+1.8%) sector was naturally well bid, with oil and gas majors higher (Santos (STO) (+2.1%), Karoon Energy (KAR) (+2.0%), and Woodside Energy (WDS) (+1.4%)) and coal stocks advancing (Yancoal Australia (YAL) (+6.0%), New Hope Corp. (NHC) (+2.9%), and Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (+2.7%)).
Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.4%) usually gets a leg up on days like this... We still gotta eat and drink! Graincorp Class (GNC) (+4.2%), Inghams (ING) (+1.4%), and Metcash (MTS) (+1.4%) were the best there.
Lithium Carbonate Futures (Benchmark month, back-adjusted) GFEX chart
Lithium stocks fortunes went from bad to worse as benchmark lithium carbonate futures on China's GFEX closed at their lowest level since 9-Feb. The long term trend ribbon can only do so much... 🤷
It was not a great day for Liontown (LTR) (-4.1%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (-3.9%), PLS Group (PLS) (-3.2%), or Elevra Lithium (ELV) (-2.2%) among others. Not pretty, and yet, ChartWatch followers are likely watching on in relief (and perhaps a little amusement at not getting tagged by 'the great lithium demand story' this time!).
Today's best ASX Top 300 gainers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQ Resources (EQR) | $0.295 | +$0.075 | +34.1% | +9.3% | +676.3% |
| 4DMedical (4DX) | $3.43 | +$0.23 | +7.2% | -24.4% | +1194.3% |
| Deep Yellow (DYL) | $1.305 | +$0.075 | +6.1% | -15.8% | -28.1% |
| Yancoal Australia (YAL) | $5.68 | +$0.32 | +6.0% | -5.2% | -2.7% |
| Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) | $15.26 | +$0.77 | +5.3% | -14.3% | +1078.4% |
| Macmahon Holdings (MAH) | $0.905 | +$0.045 | +5.2% | -5.7% | +201.7% |
| South32 (S32) | $4.08 | +$0.18 | +4.6% | -1.2% | +41.2% |
| Contact Energy (CEN) | $7.80 | +$0.34 | +4.6% | -1.3% | -5.5% |
| Graincorp (GNC) | $5.23 | +$0.21 | +4.2% | +4.4% | -29.2% |
| Viva Energy Group (VEA) | $2.43 | +$0.09 | +3.8% | +11.5% | +5.7% |
| Tasmea (TEA) | $9.28 | +$0.33 | +3.7% | +6.8% | +165.1% |
| AMP (AMP) | $2.09 | +$0.07 | +3.5% | +34.0% | +36.2% |
| Stanmore Resources (SMR) | $2.78 | +$0.09 | +3.3% | +13.0% | +28.1% |
| Ventia Services Group (VNT) | $6.15 | +$0.19 | +3.2% | -6.7% | +16.5% |
| Metals X (MLX) | $1.41 | +$0.04 | +2.9% | -2.1% | +116.9% |
| New Hope Corporation (NHC) | $5.38 | +$0.15 | +2.9% | -2.0% | +32.5% |
| Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.92 | +$0.025 | +2.8% | -17.1% | +40.5% |
| Whitehaven Coal (WHC) | $7.63 | +$0.20 | +2.7% | -6.5% | +23.7% |
| Dicker Data (DDR) | $11.94 | +$0.31 | +2.7% | -3.9% | +37.6% |
| West African Resources (WAF) | $2.77 | +$0.07 | +2.6% | -10.9% | +23.1% |
Today's worst ASX Top 300 losers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aura Consolidated Group, Inc. (AXQ) | $3.63 | -$1.06 | -22.6% | -47.0% | -47.0% |
| Weebit Nano (WBT) | $5.41 | -$0.43 | -7.4% | -36.7% | +149.3% |
| Echo IQ (EIQ) | $1.39 | -$0.11 | -7.3% | +13.5% | +504.3% |
| SKS Technologies Group (SKS) | $7.85 | -$0.51 | -6.1% | -15.6% | +252.0% |
| PEXA Group (PXA) | $7.51 | -$0.39 | -4.9% | -33.7% | -40.9% |
| Liontown (LTR) | $1.275 | -$0.055 | -4.1% | -35.6% | +37.8% |
| Mineral Resources (MIN) | $54.59 | -$2.19 | -3.9% | -21.1% | +87.7% |
| Summerset Group Holdings (SNZ) | $6.74 | -$0.26 | -3.7% | -3.4% | -37.6% |
| Zip Co (ZIP) | $2.87 | -$0.11 | -3.7% | -1.7% | -5.9% |
| WEB Travel Group (WEB) | $2.35 | -$0.09 | -3.7% | -21.9% | -52.0% |
| L1 Group (L1G) | $1.07 | -$0.04 | -3.6% | -7.0% | +64.6% |
| Wisetech Global (WTC) | $33.71 | -$1.24 | -3.5% | -8.6% | -70.7% |
| SiteMinder (SDR) | $3.34 | -$0.12 | -3.5% | -17.5% | -27.5% |
| PLS Group (PLS) | $4.19 | -$0.14 | -3.2% | -28.7% | +145.0% |
| MAAS Group Holdings (MGH) | $5.46 | -$0.17 | -3.0% | +1.9% | +30.9% |
| Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) | $17.09 | -$0.53 | -3.0% | +2.4% | -6.5% |
| Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT) | $11.83 | -$0.35 | -2.9% | -0.8% | -11.6% |
| Alcoa Corporation (AAI) | $65.15 | -$1.83 | -2.7% | -21.6% | +42.2% |
| James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX) | $36.59 | -$1.01 | -2.7% | +6.2% | -10.8% |
| Cuscal (CCL) | $4.77 | -$0.13 | -2.7% | -4.0% | +49.1% |
Chartwatch
Nasdaq Composite Index
Nasdaq Composite Index chart
Analysis
What a difference a couple of candles makes!
It wasn’t that long ago the lack of supply-side motivation and engagement — a direct product of the typical summer malaise that grips US markets around this time of the year — looked like it may precipitate a look at the 26789-27191 all-time high.
Granted, there’s been a bit of bad news generated by You Know Who regarding You Know What, but it seems it’s the lack of demand side motivation and engagement that threatens to flip the current equilibrium / sideways short term trend into a downtrend that may even challenge the long term uptrend ribbon.
Friday’s candle is definitely in the MOTN group of candle scenarios that one would expect to play out after Thursday’s supply side showing.
It wasn’t a total write off, though, the Comp closed well off its lows — but it also closed well off its session high, and well down from Thursday’s close. It is the latter that’s more important to me as a technical analyst.
= Supply side control ⚠️🚨
So, is it panic stations!? No, I don’t think so. Even after Thurs-Fri’s little one-two supply side punch, the broader short term trend remains sideways… Arguably we’re still dealing with a market in some form of equilibrium.
It will, however, be fascinating to see how the price action responds around the 24980-25015 demand zone. The “It’s okay, there’s nothing to worry about here” moment will come if / when we don’t even get there, logging a strong demand side candle to form a higher trough to 25015 (i.e., long white-bodied candle and or long downward pointing shadow, preferably on elevated volume to demonstrate the BTD crowd has removed a significant amount of the pesky latent supply that’s lurking in the system).
The opposite, i.e., strong supply side candle closing within 24980-25015 — is truly going to put the proverbial cat among the proverbial pigeons! 😼 (i.e., long black-bodied candle and or long upward pointing shadow).
If one is appropriately placed with respect to one’s portfolio risk, then neither prospect should scare one much.
Me, I am a natural bull… It’s far easier to be a trend follower in a low volatility bull market than high volatility bear markets (as they tend to be). So, let’s all hope the next candle is long and white, and the next short term trend out of the present equilibrium is up! 📈
Hope for the best 🙏
Prepare for the worst 🛡️
That’s always the plan! 🧐
View
I am at 1/2RP on my US portfolio (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).
Key Levels
Dead simple! 26789-27191 is the key zone of supply vs 24980-25015 is the key zone of demand. In between = 1/2RP vs >= FRP and <= 1/3RP.
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)
%20chart_20%20Jul.png)
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) chart
Analysis
See how the last uptrend of any note is slowly disappearing from the left-edge of my chart!?
It won’t be long until the whole chart space is filled with a herd of Zebras… Just like the Great African Steppes! 🦓🦓🦓
No analysis from me today. Why? 🤔
Because: No candle + No volume + No price action + No trend = What am I, as a trend follower, supposed to do!? 🤷
Well, apart from Accept there’s likely a better place to put my capital to work right now (i.e., Act by sitting in cash 💰!)
And of course… YouTube time!
Just like the Great African Steppes! 🦓🦓🦓
View
I'm 1/2RP on my Aussie portfolio ⚖️ (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).
Key Levels
8984-9022 is the key zone of supply, while demand is at 8708-8656.
(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position | FFS: Fund Flow Shenanigans!)
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Economy
Today
CHN People's Bank of China Loan Prime Rate
1-year LPR: unchanged at 3% p.a.
5-year LPR: unchanged at 3.5% p.a.
Later this week
Tuesday
No major economic data releases scheduled for Tuesday
Wednesday
No major economic data releases scheduled for Wednesday
Thursday
11:30 AUS June Employment Data
Employment change: +15,200 m/m forecast vs +40,300 m/m in May
Unemployment rate: 4.4% unchanged forecast
22:15 EUR European Central Bank (ECB) Main Financing Rate (no change at 2.4% p.a. forecast)
Friday
09:00 AUS July Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Manufacturing: vs 51.5 in June (revised up from 51.2)
Services: vs 50.5 in June (revised up from 49.9)
23:45 USA July Flash PMIs
Manufacturing: 54.5 forecast vs 51.5 in June (revised down from 55.7)
Services: 51.4 forecast vs 50.5 in June (revised down from 51.3)
Saturday
00:00 USA June New Home Sales (604,000 forecast vs 580,000 in May)
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
- EQ Resources (EQR) $0.30+34.1%
Rose after it announced Andrew Forrest (via Wonongarra) has taken a $190 million stake, giving him a 16.8% holding and topping the register.
- Coast Entertainment Holdings (CEH) $0.53+15.2%
Rose after approval for a 55-hectare Coomera development and a review of capital options; management flagged strong 2025-26 metrics (ticket sales +33%, visitation +29.3%, revenue +20.8%) supporting expected EBITDA growth.
- 4DMedical (4DX) $3.43+7.2%
Rose on no news, rebounded after Friday's sharp selloff and lack of positive news drivers in Thursday's announcement.
- Deep Yellow (DYL) $1.31+6.1%
Rose after awarding $34 million in civil and concrete construction contracts for the Tumas uranium project in Namibia, locking in contractors ahead of a final investment decision due in the December quarter.
- Yancoal Australia (YAL) $5.68+6.0%
Rose on no news; performance reflected general strength in the broader coal/energy sector.
- South32 (S32) $4.08+4.6%
Rose after exceeding 2026 production guidance across key operations; quarterly sales volumes jumped 15% as assets outperformed and working capital release supported cash generation.
- Viva Energy Group (VEA) $2.43+3.9%
Rose on no news; performance reflected general strength in the broader energy sector.
- New Hope Corporation (NHC) $5.38+2.9%
Rose on no news; performance reflected general strength in the broader coal/energy sector.
- Whitehaven Coal (WHC) $7.63+2.7%
Rose on no news; performance reflected general strength in the broader coal/energy sector.
Trading Lower
- Pioneer Credit (PNC) $0.63-10.1%
Fell after announcing a $17m placement (~28.3m shares at $0.60) and reporting FY26 preliminary unaudited results (cash collections $148.1m, NPAT $23.2m, up 248% on FY25).
- Weebit Nano (WBT) $5.41-7.4%
Fell after upgrading revenue guidance for the year to at least A$13.5m (previously at least A$12m), driven by expansion of customer projects.
- Jade Gas Holdings (JGH) $0.10-4.8%
Fell after executing a non-binding collaboration agreement with PT Beijing Energy Linking to potentially fund 100% of phase 1 capex (estimated US$762.5m / A$1.1bn) for the Red Lake Project; binding agreements targeted by end of the quarter.
- Liontown (LTR) $1.28-4.1%
Fell on no news; performance reflected general weakness in the broader lithium sector (GFEX lithium carbonate futures down ~3.2%) and LTR is a recent regular in ChartWatch downtrends scans.
- Wisetech Global (WTC) $33.71-3.6%
Fell on no news; performance reflected general weakness in the broader information technology sector and prevailing short- and long-term downtrends (WTC is a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends List).
- PLS Group (PLS) $4.19-3.2%
Fell on no news; performance reflected general weakness in the broader lithium sector (GFEX lithium carbonate futures down ~3.2%) and PLS has recently appeared in ChartWatch downtrends scans.
Broker Moves
Company | Broker | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
AGLAGL Energy | Ord Minnett | Retained | Hold | $11.75 |
ALDAmpol | Ord Minnett | Downgraded | Accumulate(from Buy) | $37.10(from $36.60) |
AMPAMP | Macquarie | Retained | Neutral | $1.94(from $1.82) |
AUBAUB Group | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $27.30 |
BPTBeach Energy | Ord Minnett | Retained | Hold | $1.10(from $1.16) |
CBACommonwealth Bank of Australia | Macquarie | Retained | Underperform | $111.00 |
EDVEndeavour Group | Morgan Stanley | Downgraded | Underweight(from Equal Weight) | $3.00 |
FPRFleetPartners Group | Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $3.40 |
HUBHUB24 | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $120.00 |
IAGInsurance Australia Group | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $9.00 |
| UBS | Retained | Buy | $8.80 | |
KARKaroon Energy | Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $2.20(from $2.30) |
MPLMedibank Private | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $5.10 |
NABNational Australia Bank | Macquarie | Retained | Neutral | $39.00 |
NHFNIB Holdings | Citi | Retained | Buy | $8.00 |
NUZNeurizon Therapeutics | Morgans | Retained | Speculative Buy | $0.20 |
ORGOrigin Energy | Ord Minnett | Upgraded | Hold(from Lighten) | $10.40 |
QBEQBE Insurance Group | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $27.20 |
RIORio Tinto | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Underweight | $149.00 |
RRLRegis Resources | Argonaut Securities | Retained | Buy | $9.00(from $9.30) |
| Canaccord Genuity | Retained | Buy | $6.70(from $7.35) | |
| JPMorgan | Retained | Neutral | $6.10(from $6.60) | |
| Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $6.80(from $8.00) | |
| Ord Minnett | Retained | Hold | $5.60(from $6.00) | |
| RBC Capital Markets | Retained | Outperform | $9.00(from $11.10) | |
SIGSigma Healthcare | Bell Potter | Retained | Hold | $3.00 |
SPGSPC Global Holdings | Unified Capital Partners | Initiated | Buy | $0.15 |
STOSantos | Ord Minnett | Retained | Accumulate | $7.60(from $7.80) |
SUNSuncorp Group | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $19.25 |
VEAViva Energy Group | Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $2.85 |
VGLVista Group International | Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $2.99(from $3.10) |
WBCWestpac Banking Corporation | Macquarie | Retained | Underperform | $30.00 |
WDSWoodside Energy Group | Morgans | Retained | Hold | $33.40(from $34.00) |
| Ord Minnett | Retained | Sell | $24.75 | |
WOWWoolworths Group | RBC Capital Markets | Downgraded | Underperform(from Sector Perform) | $35.00(from $33.50) |
WTCWisetech Global | Bell Potter | Retained | Buy | $71.75 |
ZIPZip Co | Citi | Retained | Buy | $3.55(from $2.60) |
Scans
Top Gainers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| HMG | Hamelin Gold Ltd | $0.145 | +45.00% |
| EQR | EQ Resources Ltd | $0.295 | +34.09% |
| AD1 | Adneo Ltd | $0.031 | +24.00% |
| MNE | Macallum New Energy Ltd | $0.195 | +21.88% |
| MIO | Macarthur Minerals Ltd | $0.023 | +21.05% |
Top Fallers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| TAT | Tartana Minerals Ltd | $0.019 | -24.00% |
| AXQ | Aura Consolidated Group, Inc | $3.63 | -22.60% |
| JNS | Janus Electric Holdings Ltd | $0.225 | -22.41% |
| KZR | Kalamazoo Resources Ltd | $0.115 | -17.86% |
| SER | Strategic Energy Resources Ltd | $0.125 | -16.67% |
52 Week Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHD | Benjamin Hornigold Ltd | $0.225 | +7.14% |
| AMP | AMP Ltd | $2.09 | +3.47% |
| SIQ | Smartgroup Corporation Ltd | $13.30 | +2.39% |
| CDO | Cadence Opportunities Fund Ltd | $2.50 | +1.63% |
| MMS | Mcmillan Shakespeare Ltd | $20.14 | +1.36% |
52 Week Lows
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| AXQ | Aura Consolidated Group, Inc | $3.63 | -22.60% |
| SPLR | Starpharma Holdings Ltd | $0.11 | -15.39% |
| GTI | Gratifii Ltd | $0.023 | -14.82% |
| EPM | Eclipse Metals Ltd | $0.012 | -14.29% |
| VOLT | ETFs Global Lithium Miners ETF | $6.54 | -8.91% |
Near Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| WVOL | iShares MSCI World Ex Aust Minimum Volatility ETF | $45.04 | +0.07% |
| IAGPF | Insurance Australia Group Ltd | $106.00 | +0.22% |
| GCI | Gryphon Capital Income Trust | $2.08 | +0.48% |
| VVLU | Vanguard Global Value Equity Active ETF | $80.00 | +0.82% |
| IHD | iShares S&P/ASX DIV Opportunities Esg Screened ETF | $17.05 | -0.47% |
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOON | Global X Space Tech ETF | $33.59 | -8.75% |
| CCR | Credit Clear Ltd | $0.125 | -3.85% |
| CBO | Cobram Estate Olives Ltd | $3.29 | -3.24% |
| DUR | Duratec Ltd | $2.22 | -2.20% |
| GLN | Galan Lithium Ltd | $0.29 | -9.38% |
