Market Wraps

ASX 200 rallies as tariff war escalates, major resources and energy stocks best on measured Chinese response so far

Wed 05 Feb 25, 6:09pm (AEDT)

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Commodities in article

Share article

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 42.9 points higher, up 0.51%.

Share prices on the ASX rallied today as investors' response to the escalating trade war switched to "relief" in the wake of a so far measured Chinese response to President Trumps tariffs. This is opposed to the recent "despair" setting.

Resources and Energy stocks bounced strongly as respective commodities prices rallied, but so too did Information Technology and Real Estate stocks on lower risk-free market yields. The only major drag on the market was Healthcare, it continues to be dogged by tariff war losers.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Gold and Silver in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!


Today in Review

Wed 05 Feb 25, 4:57pm (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 8,416.9 +0.51%
All Ords 8,683.4 +0.58%
Small Ords 3,210.1 +1.25%
All Tech 3,999.3 +1.15%
Emerging Companies 2,329.8 +1.20%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6249 -0.10%
US Futures
S&P 500 6,034.25 -0.47%
Dow Jones 44,569.0 -0.29%
Nasdaq 21,544.5 -0.58%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Materials 16,868.6 +1.61%
Information Technology 2,888.0 +1.56%
Energy 8,900.7 +1.47%
Real Estate 3,863.8 +0.85%
Industrials 7,787.1 +0.85%
Communication Services 1,664.7 +0.65%
Consumer Discretionary 4,088.9 +0.40%
Utilities 8,677.4 +0.29%
Financials 8,950.6 -0.06%
Consumer Staples 11,606.7 -0.10%
Health Care 45,034.2 -0.55%

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Markets

XJO Intraday Chart 05 February 2025
ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 42.9 points higher at 8,416.9, 0.51% from its session low and 0.29% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a resounding 228 to 55.

Sector moves today smacked of a combination of trade war relief and lower risk-free market yields. My guess is the latter move is also something to do with uncertainties over the developing trainwreck that is the former.

So, first-up winners were China trade-centric sectors like Resources (XJR) (+1.6%) and Energy (XEJ) (+1.5%). I note that base metals were generally stronger over night (decent gains in Aluminium, Copper, Tin and Zinc, although Nickel missed out). Crude oil prices also staged a strong rally from sharp falls experienced early in Tuesday’s trading session.

Australian 10 Year Government Bond Yield chart 05 February 2025
Australian 10 Year Government Bond Yield (click here for full size image)

The chart above shows local risk-free market yields dropping nicely today, and this helped ASX-listed interest rate sensitives like high-PE/long duration sectors Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.6%) and Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.65%), and bond proxies Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+0.84%).

Today's best performing sector/sub sector was Gold (XGD) (+1.9%) as the gold price is a major beneficiary of both the uncertainty the tariff war creates as well as lower risk-free market yields, and indeed, it notched a new record high today (I have detailed technical analysis on Gold and Silver in tonight's ChartWatch).

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Pantoro (PNR)

$0.125

+$0.015

+13.6%

+28.9%

+212.5%

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

$3.12

+$0.3

+10.6%

-11.1%

-14.1%

Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6)

$3.92

+$0.36

+10.1%

-1.3%

+61.8%

Predictive Discovery (PDI)

$0.330

+$0.03

+10.0%

+32.0%

+65.0%

Aurelia Metals (AMI)

$0.205

+$0.015

+7.9%

+10.8%

+78.3%

Insignia Financial (IFL)

$4.62

+$0.3

+6.9%

+13.8%

+120.0%

Peninsula Energy (PEN)

$1.190

+$0.07

+6.3%

-13.1%

-53.0%

Webjet (WJL)

$0.785

+$0.045

+6.1%

-4.8%

0%

WA1 Resources (WA1)

$15.44

+$0.81

+5.5%

+10.7%

+54.1%

OOH!Media (OML)

$1.170

+$0.06

+5.4%

-1.7%

-26.6%

BWP Trust (BWP)

$3.45

+$0.16

+4.9%

+3.3%

+1.5%

Droneshield (DRO)

$0.660

+$0.03

+4.8%

-10.2%

+40.4%

Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT)

$0.440

+$0.02

+4.8%

-3.3%

+158.8%

Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU)

$13.76

+$0.58

+4.4%

+14.6%

-40.6%

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

$9.29

+$0.39

+4.4%

-8.7%

0%

Sayona Mining (SYA)

$0.024

+$0.001

+4.3%

-11.1%

-40.0%

Lotus Resources (LOT)

$0.245

+$0.01

+4.3%

+4.3%

-19.7%

Nuix (NXL)

$4.74

+$0.19

+4.2%

-24.2%

+203.8%

The Star Entertainment Group (SGR)

$0.125

+$0.005

+4.2%

-32.4%

-75.7%

Alcoa Corporation (AAI)

$57.75

+$2.28

+4.1%

+0.8%

0%

Today's top 20 stocks from the Top 500

There wasn’t a great deal of damage in today’s broad gain – a welcome and essential response to the tepid trading session we observed yesterday – with the only major loser of note. Falls in Trump Tariff impacted Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (ASX: FPH) (-2.2%), and worsening technical trends CSL (ASX: CSL) (-1.2%) were mainly to blame.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Kelly Partners Group (KPG)

$10.30

-$1.43

-12.2%

+2.5%

+90.4%

Mesoblast (MSB)

$3.02

-$0.17

-5.3%

-9.9%

+1039.6%

29METALS (29M)

$0.205

-$0.01

-4.7%

-14.6%

-32.2%

Block (SQ2)

$139.42

-$5.78

-4.0%

-5.6%

+34.7%

Macquarie Group (MQG)

$229.38

-$8.64

-3.6%

+2.2%

+19.9%

EBR Systems (EBR)

$1.730

-$0.065

-3.6%

+26.3%

+149.0%

DUG Technology (DUG)

$1.135

-$0.04

-3.4%

-12.4%

-47.0%

Zip Co. (ZIP)

$2.26

-$0.07

-3.0%

-29.2%

+211.7%

Develop Global (DVP)

$2.41

-$0.07

-2.8%

+1.7%

0%

Guzman y Gomez (GYG)

$39.37

-$1.13

-2.8%

+0.7%

0%

Orora (ORA)

$2.25

-$0.05

-2.2%

-7.4%

-19.9%

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH)

$31.08

-$0.69

-2.2%

-9.5%

+36.0%

Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ)

$82.98

-$1.66

-2.0%

-6.7%

+16.7%

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals. (PAR)

$0.545

-$0.01

-1.8%

+36.3%

+73.0%

Generation Development Group (GDG)

$4.37

-$0.08

-1.8%

+18.8%

+148.1%

IDP Education (IEL)

$12.31

-$0.2

-1.6%

+0.4%

-36.3%

Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund (QRI)

$1.625

-$0.025

-1.5%

-3.3%

+0.9%

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

$29.15

-$0.43

-1.5%

+17.9%

+155.9%

Healius (HLS)

$1.375

-$0.02

-1.4%

-3.2%

-1.8%

Resolute Mining (RSG)

$0.365

-$0.005

-1.4%

-8.8%

-9.9%

Today's worst 20 stocks from the Top 500

ChartWatch

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX chart 05 February 2025
Stairway to golden heaven! 😇🪽 (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered gold was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 31 January.

In that update, I spoke of a clear “wall of demand-side control” being exhibited in the gold technicals. The natural conclusion to draw from such a perception is that the price of gold is likely to continue higher.

It has.

But not because of anything I said or did. I don’t move prices. My opinions and actions are irrelevant.

Not because I’m good at what I do (I’ll let you be the judge of that).

Gold has continued to rally because there is greater demand for it than there is supply.

And that’s all that matters.

Look at the above chart. Go on. Look at it. I’ve taught you what to look for: rising trend ribbons, respect of those trend ribbons, good price action, demand-side candles.

What’s the value of me doing any further analysis here when you can so clearly now do it for yourself on what so clearly remains a picture of demand side control? 🤷

Of course, the million dollar question is not whether gold is going to go up. It’s how much gold is going to up?

I don’t know.

I can’t know.

Because I can’t tell the future.

So, you’ll either have to go and find someone who can (please let me know this person’s Instagram account when you do), or like me you’ll just have to be patient and wait for the signals of supply-side control to appear on the above chart.

When we see them, and then we’ll know. Well, we’ll have a better idea! 🧐

Silver Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Silver Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX chart 05 February 2025
Silver, in perennial second place...🥈 (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered silver was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 22 January.

In that update, we were tracking a promising push out of the dynamic demand of the long term uptrend ribbon – not dissimilar to the technical picture we’re presented with today.

It's just that silver is now a little more progressed in the reaffirmation of its newly exhibited demand-side control, and following a another retest of the aforementioned demand zone. Both are positives.

The price action and candles on the last push from the 30.11 point of demand/long term trend ribbon are solid – a steep ascent plus white bodies and or downward pointing shadows.

The price has made its way towards the 33.33 point of supply. This means it’s a little bit of crunch time for silver. The quicker and more emphatically it can consume the latent supply at 33.33 the more likely it is to finally join gold in a decent upside move.

The next leg of that upside move (assuming 33.33 is cleared, that is) should be towards the major supply zone at 35.15-35.47. But we shouldn’t get too far ahead of ourselves – because silver 'aint no gold! 🥈

Demand is at 31.61 and the short term uptrend ribbon (currently 31.40-31.60). As long as silver continues to close above those two I suggest the newly minted short term uptrend remains intact.

Candles at 33.33 are the big sticking point now. We want to see emphatic demand side candles here – to tell us there really isn’t any latent supply lurking in the system at 33.33 and or there’s plenty of demand around in spite of it.


Economy

Today

  • CHN Caixin Services PMI January

    • 51.0 vs 52.3 forecast and 52.2 in December

    • Readings over 50 indicate growth in the sector, so the services industry in China continued to grow in January, albeit at a much lower rate than in December and also at a slower rate than expected

    • The data is consistent with a weaker than expected manufacturing PMI on Monday (50.1 vs 50.6 forecast and 50.5 in December)

Later this week

Thursday

  • 02:00 USA ISM Services PMI January (54.2 forecast vs 54.1 in December)

  • 23:00 UK Bank of England Official Bank Rate (4.50% forecast vs 4.75% previous)

Friday

  • 00:00 USA Prelim Nonfarm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs December Quarter

    • Productivity: +1.8% p.a. forecast vs +2.2% p.a. in September quarter

    • Labor Costs: +3.3% p.a. forecast vs +0.8% p.a. in September quarter

Saturday

  • 00:30 USA Non-Farm Payroll Data January

    • Employment Change: +154,000 forecast vs +256,000 in December

    • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in December

    • Unemployment Rate: 4.1% forecast vs 4.1% in December


Latest News


Interesting Movers

Trading higher

Trading lower

  • -12.2% Kelly Partners Group (KPG) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts, Investor Presentation 1H25 Half Year Results.

  • -5.3% Mesoblast (MSB) - No news. 🤔

  • -4.7% 29METALS (29M) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

  • -4.0% Block (SQ2) - No news, move is consistent with recent volatility.

  • -3.7% Vaneck China New Economy ETF (CNE) - Chinese markets returned from CNY holiday today, down roughly 2% at the time of writing.

  • -3.6% Macquarie Group (MQG) - No news, possibly some bad press on company culture in an AFR article today... 🤔

  • -3.6% EBR Systems (EBR) - No news, pullback after recent strong rally.

  • -3.4% DUG Technology (DUG) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

  • -3.0% Zip Co. (ZIP) - Continued negative response to 30-Jan 2Q FY25 Results Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉


Broker Moves

  • Australian Finance Group (AFG)

    • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.850 from $1.650

  • Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $80.00 from $75.00

  • Atlas Arteria (ALX)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.66 from $5.64

  • Amcor (AMC)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.00

    • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.50

  • AUB Group (AUB)

    • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $34.50 from $34.00

  • Bellevue Gold (BGL)

    • Initiated at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $1.000

  • Bannerman Energy (BMN)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.17 from $4.33

  • Boss Energy (BOE)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.45 from $5.55

  • BWP Trust (BWP)

    • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $3.40

  • Brambles (BXB)

    • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $22.50 from $19.10

  • Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

    • Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $105.00

  • Droneshield (DRO)

    • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.900 from $1.200

  • Deterra Royalties (DRR)

    • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.30 from $4.40

  • Deep Yellow (DYL)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.830 from $1.900

  • Frontier Digital Ventures (FDV)

    • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.490 from $0.610

  • Imdex (IMD)

    • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.950

  • IPH (IPH)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.11

  • Karoon Energy (KAR)

    • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.60 from $240.00

  • Laramide Resources (LAM)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.250 from $1.300

  • Lotus Resources (LOT)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.370 from $0.380

  • Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ)

    • Initiated at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $81.70

  • Macquarie Group (MQG)

    • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $255.00 from $248.00

  • Mitchell Services (MSV)

    • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.500 from $0.550

  • Nufarm (NUF)

    • Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.35 from $4.25

    • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $3.75

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.11 from $4.22

    • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $5.00

    • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.50

  • Nextdc (NXT)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $18.70 from $20.00

  • Predictive Discovery (PDI)

    • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.400 from $0.450

  • Paladin Energy (PDN)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $14.90 from $15.20

  • Peninsula Energy (PEN)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.46 from $2.50

  • Pro Medicus (PME)

    • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $310.00 from $285.00

  • Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $27.37 from $26.70

    • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $25.20 from $22.50

  • Pepper Money (PPM)

    • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.550

  • Resimac Group (RMC)

    • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.000 from $0.900

  • Steadfast Group (SDF)

    • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.50

  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

    • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.68 from $1.00

  • Silex Systems (SLX)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.52 from $6.21

  • Strickland Metals (STK)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.170

  • Suncorp Group (SUN)

    • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $20.50

  • Transurban Group (TCL)

    • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.80 from $14.20

  • Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.97

  • Vysarn (VYS)

    • Initiated at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.550

  • Worley (WOR)

    • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $16.00 from $16.50

  • Woolworths Group (WOW)

    • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $36.10


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
OZM Ozaurum Resources... $0.105 +61.54%
EQR EQ Resources Ltd $0.042 +44.83%
AIV Activex Ltd $0.011 +37.50%
TGN Tungsten Mining NL $0.12 +36.36%
CVB Curvebeam Ai Ltd $0.15 +30.44%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
BEL Bentley Capital Ltd $0.012 -25.00%
SVG Savannah Goldfiel... $0.015 -25.00%
NGS Nutritional Growt... $0.032 -20.00%
VRX VRX Silica Ltd $0.038 -17.39%
BXN Bioxyne Ltd $0.039 -17.02%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
OZM Ozaurum Resources... $0.105 +61.54%
TGN Tungsten Mining NL $0.12 +36.36%
BBT Bluebet Holdings Ltd $0.395 +19.70%
AQD Ausquest Ltd $0.047 +17.50%
EXT Excite Technology... $0.014 +16.67%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
NOR Norwood Systems Ltd $0.025 -16.67%
A11 Atlantic Lithium Ltd $0.20 -13.04%
IBX Imagion Biosystem... $0.015 -11.77%
BKT Black Rock Mining... $0.029 -9.38%
ODA Orcoda Ltd $0.086 -7.53%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
OZBD Betashares Austra... $44.39 +0.27%
WVOL Ishares MSCI Worl... $43.39 -0.82%
AII Almonty Industrie... $1.54 +12.82%
IAGPF Insurance Austral... $104.76 -0.29%
GCI Gryphon Capital I... $2.05 +0.99%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
VUL Vulcan Energy Res... $4.20 +0.48%
PLY Playside Studios Ltd $0.215 0.00%
RFG Retail Food Group... $2.03 -1.93%
ARB ARB Corporation Ltd $36.87 -0.35%
CXL CALIX Ltd $0.53 -5.36%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Carl Capolingua

Content Editor

Carl has over 30-year's investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.

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