5 underperforming ASX small-caps of FY23 (and what the brokers make of them)

The following ASX-listed companies are drawn from the worst 20 ASX mid-caps (the ASX 300, excluding the top 100) in terms of their share price movement between 1 July 2022 and 30 June 2023. From several sectors – gaming, real estate, industrial and financial – their 12-month returns ranged from -12% to -55%.

This article takes a look at some of the headline events that affected the companies in the last year or more and outlines a few recent broker ratings for each.

Five of the biggest falling ASX mid-caps of FY23

Source: Market Index

Star Entertainment Group (ASX: SGR)

The share price of the casino company dropped like a stone in FY2023, on the back of a series of setbacks including:

•  $450 million of fines after regulator AUSTRAC found the company breached anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing laws

• Class action lawsuits

• An impending new NSW Government casino tax.

 But Market Matters’ James Gerrish was decidedly upbeat on his outlook for the company when he appeared on an episode of Livewire’s Buy Hold Sell in March, naming the company a BUY – albeit a narrow one – when it traded at $1.40 (its latest closing price, on Monday 10 July, was just over $1).

“I think they've cleared off one area of their business that was a real headache, which is their balance sheet. They can focus on all those other issues they've got from a regulatory standpoint, competition and the like. So, it's a buy, just, at $1.40,” Gerrish said.

 The latest rating move for Star’s stock was a downgrade by Macquarie. On 23 April, the investment bank dropped SGR to NEUTRAL from Outperform, with a price target of $1.35.

Just a few days before that, CLSA analyst Justin Barratt upgraded the stock to OUTPERFORM from Underperform, with a price target of $1.50.

The five-year share price performance of Star Entertainment Group

Elders Limited (ASX: ELD)

Elders, a diverse Australian agribusiness company, provides livestock, real estate and various services across cattle feed and processing, wool agency, grain marketing and others. Its share price has fallen almost 30% since the start of the year – around half of which came after management reported its half-year earnings result on 15 May, with net profit after tax down 46.5% on the same period 12 months ago.

On 28 June, Bell Potter upgraded Elders to BUY from Hold – but analyst Jonathan Snape cut his price target to $7.25 from $7.45.

The company was also upgraded by CLSA around six weeks earlier, with analyst Richard Barwick lifting his rating to BUY from Outperform on 16 May. But the analyst dropped his price target to $8.75 from $11.55.

On the same day, WILSONS upgraded Elders to MARKET-WEIGHT from Underweight. But as with the above brokers, analyst James Ferrier cut his price target to $7.04 from $7.20.

The five-year share price performance of Elders Limited.

Magellan Financial Group (ASX: MFG)

Global asset manager Magellan Financial Group has faced multiple challenges in recent years. These have ranged from exits and reshuffling of key personnel to large outflows of investor money, including the loss of several large institutional mandates. In recent weeks, short-seller Sandon Capital launched a campaign to wind up one of the company’s listed investment trusts, the Magellan Global Fund.

But James Gerrish of Market Matters said recently he has turned more positive on the stock. He alluded to the improved performance of Magellan funds and says the company is “cheap, with a path to redemption.”

“We intend to wait until FY23 results, due out on 18 August, for more information,” Gerrish said.

Macquarie downgraded the stock to UNDERPERFORM from Neutral on 9 July and cut its price target to $7.25 from $7.50.

Some months earlier, UBS upgraded Magellan to BUY from Sell, analyst Shreyas Patel increased his price target to $10 from $8.60.

The five-year share price performance of Magellan Financial Group.

Link Administration (ASX: LNK)

Link is a technology-enabled provider of outsourced administration services for superannuation funds and corporate markets. At the end of June, the firm lost the contract for one of its institutional clients, HESTA. The superannuation fund represents approximately 4% of Link Group’s FY23 estimated group revenue, according to the company’s ASX announcement.

Since then, LNK’s share price has fallen more than 15% – adding to challenges including the flow-on effects from the collapse of a large client within its UK business back in 2019.

On 6 July, Barrenjoey downgraded Link to UNDERWEIGHT from Neutral, with analyst Andrew Adams cutting his price target to $1.70 from $2.35.

Citi downgraded the company to NEUTRAL from Buy three days earlier, with analyst Nigel Pittaway cutting his price target to $1.60 from $2.45.

The five-year share price performance of Link Administration.

Arena REIT (ASX: ARF)

In what has been a torrid 18 months plus for listed property companies, as rates ratcheted upward, management of Arena REIT last month wrote down its portfolio value by $1 million. The assets Arena manages are primarily childcare centres along with medical centres and government-tenanted properties.

Arena REIT was upgraded to OUTPERFORM from Neutral by Macquarie, and its price target increased to $4.05 from $3.94, on 10 February this year.

On the same day, the company was upgraded to OVERWEIGHT from Underweight by Jarden, analyst Lou Pirenc lifting his price target to $4.30 from $4.25.

The five-year share price performance of Arena REIT.