Morning Wrap: US stocks climb as yields ease, copper tumbles, ASX to edge lower

Wall Street managed to finish higher as defensives outperformed, US and European economic data continues to soften, energy stocks begin to give back year-to-date gains and several central banks hiked interest rates.

Let’s dive in. 

Markets

US stocks continue to bounce in the face of softening economic data and more hawkish comments from the Fed.

The Fed's Michelle Bowman signalled support for a 75 bps rate hike in July and a series of 50 bps in subsequent meetings. Bowman said "depending on how the economy evolves, further increases in the target range … may be needed after that."

Defensive stocks rallied in the face of weakening economic data. Flash PMI readings show that inflation is taking a toll on economic growth. Several European countries and the US reported manufacturing and services activity falling to year-to-date lows.

• 7 out of 11 US sectors were green

• Utilities, Health Care and Real Estate sectors rose more than 2%

• Staples, Discretionary and Tech also outperformed

• Energy and Materials underperformed

• 59% of US stocks advanced

• 77% of US stocks trade below their 200-day moving average (78% on Thursday, 79% a week ago)

Stocks

• Factset Research (+8%) rallied after reporting better-than-expected results. The financial data company said it expects growth to be at the upper end of its previous guidance for the full year

• Netflix (+1.6%) executives confirmed ads are coming to the streaming services

• Occidental Petroleum Corp (+0.6%) as Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway continues to increase its stake in the oil and gas company. Occidental shares are are up 81% year-to-date

• United Airlines (-2.5%) after trimming 12% of flights out of Newark in an attempt to reduce delays. The airline plans to cut 50 flights daily from 1 July 2022

Economy

• Norway raises interest rates by 50 bps to 1.25%

  • 4th hike this year and the largest in 20 years 

• Philippines raises interest rates by 25 bps to 2.5%

  • 2nd hike this year

• Mexico raises interest rates by 75 bps to 7.75%

  • 9th rate hike this year

• The US, France, Germany and the UK all reported manufacturing and services PMIs for June

  • All PMIs came in below May readings

  • All PMIs were below 55 and above 50 (below 50 indicates contraction)

  • French PMIs slumped to the weakest since peak Omicron disruptions, which was at the beginning of 2022

  • US manufacturing activity fell to lowest levels since July 2020

• US filings for unemployment benefits fell -2,000 to 229,000

  • The figure remains close to a 5-month high, potentially indicating that the tight labour market is starting to cool

Commodities

• Iron ore futures snap a massive losing streak, supported by firmer buying sentiment for cargoes with August laycans, sources told Fastmarkets

• Oil prices slip amid softening economic data and emerging demand destruction concerns

• Gold retreats amid another round of hawkish commentary from the Fed 

#1 Copper

Dr Copper is getting more sick with every passing day, down another -5.2% overnight to US$3.75/lb and -17.9% since 2 June.

Copper futures (Source: TradingView)

Likewise, the Global X Copper Miners ETF gave back another -6.1% overnight, and down -25.8% since its 7 June high.

Thursday was a painful day for ASX-listed copper miners, with Oz Minerals (ASX: OZL), Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR) and 29 Metals (ASX: 29M) all down more than -5%.

Copper needs to stabilise otherwise its more bad news for local miners.

#2 Tech

We're seeing a few tech ETFs stabilise in recent days, making a push towards 2-week highs. (Bigger picture: these ETFs are down around -50% from last year's highs)

The Global X Cloud ETF headlined overnight gains, up 4.8%. This was led by names including:

• Salesforce (+3.3%)

• Dropbox (+2.8%)

• Zoom (+2.2%)

Buyers also returned to beaten up fintech names including:

• Coinbase +13.4%

• Affirm +12.4%

• Block +10.9%

#3 Energy

Oil prices continue to soften in the face of tight supplies and declining production.

"Looking at the respective futures curves, both Brent and WTI are still heavily in backwardation, suggesting that prompt oil supplies remain as tight as ever, even as prices across the curves fall," said Oanda senior market analyst, Jeffrey Halley. "

Increasing recession fears appear to be prompting a culling of heavy speculative long positioning in both contracts, even as in the real world, energy tightness is as real as ever."

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Ex-dividend: None

• Dividends paid:  ATM, MEC, WBC 

• Listing: None

• Issued shares: ACR, AVL, BCA, BIO, CCA, CR9, CXO, DTR, EHL, FTZ, GMA, GOR, IMB, KFE, LKE, MFG, MRL, MTH, NAB, OCA, OFX, ORN, PIA, RF1, RRR, SGH

Other things of interest (AEST): 

• UK Retail Sales (May) at 4:00 pm

• US New Home Sales (May) at 12:00 am