Morning Wrap: ASX set to edge lower after choppy session on Wall St, copper slides to 8-month low

US stocks were slightly lower after a volatile session, a US$26bn stablecoin collapse triggers a cryptocurrency selloff, UK GDP growth turns negative in March, copper flags potential concerns for the global economy and oil prices won’t go down. 

Let’s dive in.

Stocks

• Major US indices continued to sell off shortly after open before staging a final-hour rally to close around breakeven

• Cryptocurrencies collapsed yesterday after stablecoin, TerraUSD, failed to maintain its one-to-one peg to the US dollar

  • Terra hit lows of 19 cents to the dollar

  • Another crypto token which operates in the same ecosystem, Luna, has lost -99.65% of its value in the past 24 hours 

• 6 out of 11 US sectors were green

• Healthcare, discretionary and real estate outperformed

• Utilities, tech and financials fell more than others

• 54% of US stocks advanced

• 76% of US stocks trade below their 200-day moving average (76% on Thursday, 70% a week ago)

• Affirm (+23%, after hours: +31%) delivered a revenue beat for the March quarter despite “volatile market conditions”

  • Gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose 73% to US$3.9bn

  • March quarter losses were -US$54.7m compared to a -US$287m loss a year ago

• Coinbase (+8.9%) shares are down more than -75% this year but the company’s CEO repeatedly said that bankruptcy is not likely despite freefalling crypto prices 

Economy

• US initial jobless claims rose 1,000 to 203,000 for the week ended May 7

  • Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal were expecting new claims to fall to 194,000

  • The US labour market remains tight. However, higher interest rates, notable layoffs in the tech sector and slower economic growth could weigh

• US producer price index (PPI) rose 11% on-the-year in April, down from a record 11.5% increase in March

  • Measures how much manufacturers are paying for products and raw materials

  • Excluding food, energy and trade services, core PPI rose 6.9% from a year ago

• UK GDP fell -0.1% in March as the country struggles to cope with inflation

  • The country’s economy grew 0.8% in the March quarter, but January was the only positive month

  • Economists expect further declines this year

Commodities

• Iron ore prices dipped to US$130.2 a tonne. Demand for seaborne cargoes was heard to be positive because prices had likely dipped to reasonable levels, a Chinese buyer told Fastmarkets

• Oil prices refuse to go down, even in the face of inflation and global growth concerns

• Gold is breaking down after another strong move by the US dollar 

#1 Copper

Copper tumbled overnight to an 8 month low amid concerns of a slowdown in the global economy.

There isn't much to be positive about after prolonged lockdowns in China, aggressive interest rate hikes, a drawn out war in Ukraine and weaker-than-expected GDP readings.

Copper prices are down almost -15% since mid-April, which is rather uncharacteristic for the rather slow moving metal.

The plus side is that copper remains within its longstanding 15-month trading range. Although things could get ugly if it breaks towards the downside.

Copper price (Source: TradingView)

#2 Energy

You'd expect oil prices to weaken after what you've just heard about copper.

Nope. Oil seems well supported around US$100 a barrel.

This comes as a massive surprise after OPEC analysts lowered their global oil demand outlook for 2022 by 210,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 100.29m b/d.

"Many energy traders remain fixated over the EU’s potential ban on Russian crude, which now seems to be losing momentum. ​ The EU is struggling to get Hungary’s support, which could suggest this embargo won’t happen anytime soon," said Oanda senior market analyst, Ed Moya.

"In this market environment, oil will struggle if China moves forward with city-wide lockdowns. Despite all the fears of weakening growth prospects, oil markets should be supported by a strong summer vacationing seasoning that will see lots of driving, flying, and cruise ship trips."

#3 BNPL

US-listed BNPL rival, Affirm, looks like its on track to rally more than 50% in two sessions (up 23% overnight and up 31% in after hours).

On Wednesday, Affirm was down -91.8% from its all-time highs last November. Under such depressing circumstances, it looks a decent March quarter result was enough to inspire a sharp re-rate.

Chief Executive Max Levchin said that the company was “especially proud of the re-engagement we are driving with consumers as 81% of our transactions were from repeat Affirm users.”

The bounce for Affirm could bring some life back into local BNPL names.

More broadly speaking, a number of US tech names that are down 70-90% had some relief bounces overnight, including:

• Etsy +12.9%

• Draftkings +10.7%

• Block +6.4%

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Ex-dividend: JHG

• Dividends paid: CLW, DXC, DXI, GVF, MFF, SOL, VTG, WPR

• Listing: None 

• Issued shares: ACF, AFP, AND, BID, BKT, BLG, BRL, CAM, CHK, CIW, DDD, ENR, KGL, MEA, MFG, MLS, MRD, MZZ, NAB, NBI, NRZ, NUH, NZK, NZM, PG1, PSC, RNO, SEN, SRN, WAT, WRM, XTC, ZMI

Other things of interest (AEST):

• RBA Governor Speech at 12:00 pm