Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, S&P 500 posts best day since April 2025

ASX 200 futures are down 22 pts (-0.24%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Massive rally across Asian, European and US markets, broadly in-line with what we experienced on Wednesday

• Every ex-defensive/value sector rallied at least 2% on Wall Street, though ceasefire and Hormuz reopening remains volatile as Israel continues to strike Lebanon

• Commodity prices remain highly volatile, with Brent closing 6.5% lower (vs. session lows of -12.6%) and gold pretty much flat despite rallying as much as 3.3%

• Kerry also makes his return after a two-week break

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Thu 09 Apr 26, 8:35am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,783	+2.51%
Dow Jones	47,910	+2.85%
NASDAQ Comp	22,635	+2.80%
Russell 2000	2,620	+2.97%
Country Indices
Canada	33,621	+1.15%
China	3,995	+2.69%
Germany	24,081	+5.06%
Hong Kong	25,893	+3.09%
India	77,563	+3.95%
Japan	56,308	+5.39%
United Kingdom	10,609	+2.51%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,711.99	+0.08%
Copper	5.73	+3.35%
WTI Oil	96.5	-14.04%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7043	-0.00%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	71,433	+1.94%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,139	+2.68%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.291	-1.20%
VIX	21.04	-18.39%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 traded mostly sideways after the massive gap up (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks posted their best session since April 2025, finishing near session highs

• S&P 500 now up for a sixth straight session, the longest winning streak since October and now down just 1.75% YTD (vs. -8.0% a few days ago)

• Risk appetite rebounded sharply, with US crude settling below US$100 amid easing concerns about an energy crisis and reviving bets the Fed will cut rates in 2026. Treasuries wavered, the dollar erased its year-to-date advance as the haven bid unwound, and Bitcoin topped US$71,000 (BBG)

• Nvidia, Meta, Tesla, AMD, and Micron each surged between 4% and 10% as the ceasefire triggered a broad risk-on rotation into previously beaten-down AI and speculative tech names (TE)

• Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer said the technology sector is increasingly attractive, noting its valuation relative to expected consensus growth has fallen below that of the global aggregate market for the first time since the sector hit record highs last October (BBG)

• The VIX dropped sharply to near 20, closer to its historic average, as markets priced in a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium. The S&P 500 logged a rare move where it rallied past both its 50 and 200-day moving averages (CNBC)

• European markets surged, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 advancing nearly 4% and Germany's DAX gaining 4.8%. Dubai's benchmark jumped 8.5%, its biggest intraday gain since December 2014 (CNBC)

• Hedge funds rushing to close bearish bets against US market at fastest pace since 2020 (BBG)

ENERGY

• The Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked as of Wednesday, with only 3 ships observed departing against the normal 135 per day. More than 800 vessels remain trapped inside the Persian Gulf, mostly awaiting departure (BBG)

• Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline (the Hormuz bypass carrying roughly 5 million barrels per day) was struck by a drone hours after the ceasefire, but damage was limited and crude flows through the Yanbu port continued without interruption (BBG)

• Iran told mediators it plans to limit number of ships crossing Strait of Hormuz to roughly a dozen a day, charge tolls payable by cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan (WSJ)

• Trump wants Strait of Hormuz open 'without limitation', including tolls (CNBC)

• Kuwait reports damage at oil facilities, power stations after Iranian drone attack (AlA)

• Physical crude continuing to trade at huge premiums despite lower futures prices (BBG)

IRAN

• The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, averting Trump's threatened escalation. Trump announced the agreement on Truth Social, with mediator Pakistan inviting both sides to Islamabad for in-person talks on April 10. (BBG)

• Iran reportedly tells mediators talks with US conditional on Lebanon ceasefire (TOI)

• Israel says Iran ceasefire doesn't apply to Lebanon, strikes commercial and residential areas in central Beirut (PBS)

• Iran may withdraw from ceasefire agreement if attack on Lebanon continues (CBS)

• Iran publicly releases 10-point framework Trump called "a workable basis" for talks (NYT)

• Trump says any country supplying Iran with military weapons will face immediate 50% tariffs (NYP)

STOCKS

• Meta debuts Muse Spark, says significantly narrows performance gap with OpenAI and Anthropic, shares surge 6.5% (AX)

• Delta CEO Ed Bastian said the fuel bill will be $2bn higher in Q2, with all-in fuel costs of $4.30 per gallon. He declined to update the full-year forecast citing fuel uncertainty, but maintained the company expects to lead the industry with $1bn profit in Q2 (CNBC)

• Roth Capital downgraded a basket of US energy producers including Diamondback Energy, Permian Resources, Matador Resources, SM Energy, Magnolia Oil and Gas, and Talos Energy, citing expectations that front-month oil prices are likely to move closer to US$70/bbl near term. (CNBC)

• European airline stocks posted some of the biggest gains of the session, with Lufthansa and EasyJet each rising more than 10% and Tui surging more than 11%, all pricing in lower jet fuel costs on an easing of the Hormuz disruption (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• FOMC minutes from the March 17-18 meeting showed a growing number of Fed officials believed the Iran war could further stoke inflation, with some wanting to signal the committee may have to consider raising rates if conditions deteriorate (BBG)

• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson says the US economy continues to grow but sees risks on both sides of the dual mandate, reiterating that in the short term overall inflation is expected to move higher on elevated energy prices, with sustained higher oil posing a more material risk (Fed)

ECONOMY

• The IMF, World Bank and World Food Programme jointly warned Wednesday that rising food prices and food insecurity will result from ongoing transport bottlenecks and elevated oil, gas and fertiliser prices, even as the ceasefire was announced (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Pretty quiet on the news front, with no major corporate announcements to cross the desk so far.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• More headline volatility: A speaker of Iran’s parliament posted on X that three of the ten points in the “workable basis for negotiation” were violated, making a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations “unreasonable”. White House speaker Karoline Leavitt also noted Trump rejected Iran’s 10-point plan.

• What now: The ASX was the first market to digest the ceasefire news, with futures pointing towards a slightly weaker open. Most overnight ETFs, while up 3-7%, finished off best levels (e.g. Copper Miners up 6.8% vs. session high of 9.75%). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Energy sector reversed half of its intraday decline (closed 3.5% lower vs. session low of 6.6%).

• Thoughts on positioning/sentiment: The market has been well hedged, with Goldman Sachs’ global long-short ratio at the lowest in over 15 years. US fund manager exposures also dipped from 100.8% (so slightly leveraged long) in Oct-25 to 60.2% in 18-Mar-26, according to the NAAIM Index. You’ve also got sentiment indicators (AAII bull-bear, CNN Fear & Greed) at rather extreme bearish levels. These perhaps explain why the market hasn’t gone much lower, and why we’re seeing such a strong response to ceasefire headlines.

BROKER MOVES

• Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure initiated Buy with $5.75 target (UBS)

• Deterra Royalties initiated Buy with $4.85 target (Morgans)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 9 Apr: Bisalloy Steel (BIS) – $0.08, Horizon Oil (HZN) – $0.015, Katana Capital (KAT) – $0.005

• Fri 10 Apr: Dominion Income Trust 1 (DN1) – $0.642

• Mon 13 Apr: Sandon Capital Investments (SNC) – $0.005, WAM Global (WGB) – $0.066

• Tue 14 Apr: Turners Automotive Group (TRA) – $0.074, WAM Alternative Assets (WMA) – $0.03

• Wed 15 Apr: Cadence Capital (CDM) – $0.03, Cadence Opportunities Fund (CDO) – $0.075, Clover Corporation (CLV) – $0.01, WAM Leaders (WLE) – $0.048

• Thu 16 Apr: Acorn Capital Investment Fund (ACQ) – $0.035, Latitude Group Holdings (LFSPA) – $1.494, WAM Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.006

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Adrad (AHL), Atlas Arteria (ALX), Bhagwan Marine (BWN), Brambles (BXB), Capricorn Metals (CMM), CSL (CSL), CVC (CVC), Fleetwood (FWD), HMC Capital (HMC), NRW (NWH), Pacific Current (PAC), Perenti (PRN), Qube (QUB), Regis Healthcare (REG), SGH (SGH), Ventia Services (VNT)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 pm: US Core PCE

• 11:30 pm: US Q4 GDP Final