Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 lower as tech stocks ease, Copper soars to 11-month high

The S&P 500 slipped overnight from a record reached in the previous session, gold prices kick on after a pullback, copper prices break out above the key US$4.0 level, Macquarie downgraded three of the four big banks to Underperform, the Australian government is set to underwrite $1.1 billion in loans to support the rare earths and lithium industry and oil prices push towards four-month highs.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower but off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to rise for a third consecutive session, led by resource-related stocks

• Innodata withdraws bid to acquire Appen (Investing.com)

• WAM loads up on Cettire, likening the ‘noise’ to Afterpay (AFR)

• Westpac actively looking to replace CEO Peter King by year end (The Australian)

• Australian government to underwrite close to $1.1bn in loans and grants to support rare earths and lithium (The Australian)

BROKER MOVES

• Centaurus Metals reinstated Speculative Buy with $0.80 target (Canaccord)

• Liontown downgraded to Hold from Speculative Buy but target increased to $1.30 from $1.10 (Canaccord)

• Liontown upgraded to Neutral from Underweight and target increased to $1.35 from $0.90 (Barrenjoey)

• Lynas Rare Earths initiated Underweight with $5.00 target (Morgan Stanley)

• Macquarie downgraded three big four banks 

  • ANZ downgraded to Underperform from Neutral but target increased to $27 from $25

  • NAB downgraded to Underperform from Neutral but target increased to $32.50 from $30

  • Westpac downgraded to Underperform from Outperform but target increased to $26 to $25

  • CBA retained Underperform but target increased to $95 from $88

MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed overnight but mostly off worst levels

• S&P 500 eased slightly following another record close in the previous session (the 17th so far this year)

• Big tech was mostly lower, led by Tesla (-4.5%), Apple (-1.2%) and Nvidia (-1.1%)

• Treasury yields were higher across the curve, most are on a three-day win streak

• No major narrative changes following slightly hotter-than-expected CPI print – Broader disinflation trend still intact, markets still pricing in ~85 bps of rate cuts this year and analysts continue to push back against bubble talk

• Copper prices soar to highest level since April 2023 (Reuters)

• Oil prices up around 3% to a 4-month high as US crude stocks drop, Russian refinery attacks (Reuters)

• Investors see US stock market due for a pullback, a lot of good news priced-in (Reuters)

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• Stripe's total payment volumes surpassed US$1tn in 2023 up 25% year-on-year (CNBC)

• Toyota agrees to give factory workers biggest pay bump in 25 years (Reuters)

• Volkswagen considering partnership to produce cheaper EVs to compete with low-cost Chinese rivals (FT)

• Tesla shares slide after Wells Fargo downgraded the EV maker, noting “risk to volume as price cuts are having a diminishing impact” (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed likely to hold until June, with rate-cut pace in focus (Reuters)

• Wells Fargo joins other mega banks and changes first rate cut projection to June (Reuters)

• BOJ's Ueda says wage negotiations critical in deciding when to phase out its big stimulus program (Reuters)

• ECB's Villeroy notes of broad agreement to cut rates in spring (Bloomberg)

• BoE Chief Bailey argues central banks need to consider how long to keep higher for longer (Reuters)

GEOPOLITICS

• Putin says Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if Russian sovereignty is threatened (Reuters)

• Ukraine continues second day of assault on Russian energy infrastructure (FT)

• Israeli parliament approved 2024 budget with defense spending at all-time high (Bloomberg)

• House Republicans vow to proceed with vote to ban TikTok (Reuters)

• US reportedly preparing $400m weapons package for Ukraine despite blockage in Congress (Reuters)

ECONOMY

• UK economic growth rebounds in January after falling into a technical recession second half of 2023 (Bloomberg)

Resources Are In For A Good Time

Solid overnight session for all-things materials and energy. We'll go through some of the key movers below.

Copper: Copper prices rallied 3.2%, breaking above the key US$4.0 level to levels not seen since April 2023. Top Chinese copper smelters jointly agreed to production cuts at some loss-making plants to cope with a shortage of the raw material, according to Reuters. The agreement comes as fees to process copper concentrate have dropped to their lowest in more than a decade. The Global X Copper Miners ETF opened 2.3% higher overnight and finished the session up 6.0%. This should drive a strong response for local copper names (not that we have many left). A few notable names to watch include Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR), 29Metals (ASX: 29M) and Aeris Resources (ASX: AIS).

Gold: Most large cap gold names finished 2-3% lower on Wednesday after gold prices snapped a 9-day win streak. Gold prices bounced overnight, recouping most of Wednesday's pullback. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF opened 0.7% higher and finished the session up 2.4% – Marking the highest close since 2 January.

Energy: Oil prices are pushing four-month highs after US Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected 5.5 million barrel draw in gasoline inventories for the week ending 8 March. This was well-above consensus expectations of a 1.9 million barrel draw. Likewise, oil inventories experienced a 1.5 million barrel draw vs. expectations of a 1.3 million barrel increase. The drawdowns reflect an extended winter break for local refiners and some near-term tightness in US oil markets. Interestingly, Woodside (ASX: WDS) looks like it was going to fall off a cliff – Briefly touching $28.64 on Wednesday or the lowest since May 2022.

Woodside daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Trading ex-div: SRG Global (SRG) – $0.02, TPG Telecom (TPG) – $0.09, Regis Healthcare (REG) – $0.063, PWR Holdings (PWH) – $0.048, Eagers Automotive (APE) – $0.50, Southern Cross Media (SXL) – $0.01, Breville Group (BRG) – $0.16, Shriro (SHM) – $0.02, Austin Engineering (ANG) – $0.004, Embelton (EMB) – $0.15, Inghams (ING) – $0.12

• Dividends paid: Eumundi (EBG) – $0.035, Resmed (RMD) – $0.048, Bell Financial Group (BFG) – $0.04, APA Group (APA) – $0.265, Count (CUP) – $0.015, EVT (EVT) – $0.14, Ansell (ANN) – $0.252

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 pm : US Producer Price Index (Feb)

• 11:30 pm: US Retail Sales (Feb)