Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 climbs to near all-time high ahead of inflation data

Thu 11 Jan 24, 8:40am (AEDT)

ASX 200 futures are trading 13 points higher, up 0.17% as of 8:20 am AEDT.

The S&P 500 finished higher overnight and within 1% of all-time highs ahead of the highly anticipated December inflation report as well as US bank earnings on Friday. Oil prices ease after US stockpiles unexpectedly edge higher, Wells Fargo upgrades its S&P 500 target, TSMC reports flat December quarter revenues but top market expectations and looking back at yesterday's uranium rally.

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Thu 11 Jan 24, 8:21am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500 4,783 +0.57%
Dow Jones 37,696 +0.45%
NASDAQ Comp 14,970 +0.75%
Russell 2000 1,962 -0.30%
Country Indices
Canada 20,989 +0.09%
China 2,878 -0.54%
Germany 16,690 +0.01%
Hong Kong 16,097 -0.57%
India 71,658 +0.38%
Japan 34,442 +2.01%
United Kingdom 7,652 -0.42%
Name Value % Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold 2,027.8 -0.37%
Iron Ore 140.52 -0.25%
Copper 3.785 +0.62%
WTI Oil 71.32 -1.12%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6697 +0.18%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (AUD) 68,368 -1.98%
Ethereum (AUD) 3,696 +9.69%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond 4.03 +0.27%
VIX 12.75 -0.08%

US Sectors

Thu 11 Jan 24, 8:21am (AEDT)

SECTOR % CHG
Communication Services +1.17%
Information Technology +1.00%
Consumer Discretionary +0.98%
Industrials +0.48%
Health Care +0.42%
Financials +0.21%
SECTOR % CHG
Real Estate +0.13%
Utilities -0.06%
Consumer Staples -0.13%
Materials -0.17%
Energy -1.01%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 int
S&P 500 trends higher but finishes off best levels (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

  • Major US benchmarks finished higher but off best levels after hawkish comments from New York Fed President Williams

  • Williams said that rates are restrictive enough to bring inflation back to target but the Fed may need to maintain a restrictive stance for some time to hit goals

  • Markets appear largely in waiting mode for US inflation data on Thursday and bank earnings on Friday

  • Almost 75% of S&P 500 market cap to report by week ended 9 February 

  • Wells Fargo raises 2024 S&P target from 4,600-4,800 to 4,800-5,000 (Reuters)

  • Oil prices fall after surprise US storage build (Reuters)

  • Global governments to unleash unprecedented bond flood, challenging market dynamics, sparking yield concerns (Bloomberg)

  • IPO market revival hopes reignited after shares of newly listed stocks outperform (FT)

STOCKS

  • TSMC reports largely flat Q4 revenue but still beat both the company's and market's expectations (Reuters)

  • Amazon axing hundreds of Prime Video and Twitch workers (Bloomberg)

  • Salesforce and Slack to pause hiring in tech and product divisions (Fortune)

  • Obesity drugs driving M&A optimism at JPMorgan health care conference (Bloomberg)

  • Boeing CEO admits 'our mistake' after 737 MAX door blowout (Bloomberg)

  • Intel challenges Nvidia, Qualcomm with 'AI PC' chips for automobiles (Reuters)

CENTRAL BANKS

  • ECB's Villeroy says central bank to cut rates once inflation outlook hits target (Reuters)

  • Japan's slower wage growth gives another reason for BOJ to hold (Bloomberg)

  • Australia inflation cools, boosting case for February rate pause (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS

  • US and China military hold first talks since 2021 (FT)

  • US and allies condemn arms transfers between Russia and North Korea (Reuters)

  • China threatens more trade sanctions on Taiwan, ahead of national elections (Reuters)

  • President Biden to send high level delegation to Taiwan after Saturday's election (FT)

ECONOMY

  • Retailers rush to avoid delays to spring collections by stockpiling due to Red Sea disruption (Reuters)

  • Global chip sales rose for first time in more than a year as demand rebounds (Bloomberg)

Industry ETFs

Thu 11 Jan 24, 8:21am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Commodities
Uranium 28.74 +0.95%
Copper Miners 36.55 +0.27%
Gold Miners 29.105 -0.22%
Silver 20.945 -0.26%
Steel 69.874 -0.41%
Lithium & Battery Tech 47.11 -0.74%
Strategic Metals 55.26 -1.90%
Industrials
Construction 62.56 +1.51%
Aerospace & Defense 122.3036 +0.69%
Global Jets 19.075 +0.34%
Agriculture 20.62 -0.15%
Healthcare
Biotechnology 137.96 -0.71%
Cannabis 5.55 -2.63%
Name Value % Chg
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 22.38 -1.50%
Renewables
Solar 48.28 +0.77%
Hydrogen 6.38 -0.16%
CleanTech 9.95 -0.60%
Technology
Robotics & AI 28.41 +2.45%
Cybersecurity 29.28 +1.70%
Video Games/eSports 56.431 +1.15%
FinTech 24.75 +0.28%
E-commerce 20.6801 +0.19%
Cloud Computing 22.05 +0.09%
Semiconductor 557.8 -0.34%
Sports Betting/Gaming 16.5 -0.60%
Electric Vehicles 23.58 -0.67%

What Happens After a 20% Gain?

The S&P 500 rallied 24.2% last year and finished within 2% of all-time highs. But what happens in the year that follows the ~20% gain?

Since 1950, the gain for the S&P 500 after a 20% yearly rise is another 10.0% gain (and higher 80% of the time). Although its pretty normal for the market to experience a slow start to the year as well as weakness during the seasonally weak months of May and September.

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Source: Carson Investment Research

Another High Stakes CPI Print

US inflation data for December is due at 12:30 am tonight. Here's what to expect:

  • Core inflation expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, the same pace as November

  • Core inflation expected to ease to 3.8% from 4.0% in November

  • Headline inflation forecast to rise 0.2% month-on-month, up from 0.1% in November

  • Headline inflation forecast to rise 3.2%, up from 3.1% in November

The forecasts suggest the continued case of sticky inflation from the service sector while areas such as used cars, energy and housing costs continue to ease.

Saxo Bank believes the market could be "more sensitive to an upside surprise in the CPI data this week, rather than a downside surprise" as it looks for more disinflation momentum to justify rate cut expectations.

While rate cut expectations have somewhat ease in recent weeks, the base case is still six 25 bp cuts by year end.


The Uranium Rally

It was absolute euphoria for uranium stocks on Wednesday. Most ASX-listed names opened around 3-5% higher and rallied intraday to close 5-12% higher.

We noted the catalyst in yesterday's Morning Wrap: The US Department of Energy is seeking bids from contractors to help establish a domestic supply of enriched uranium for use in next generation nuclear power plants.

Here are some interesting observations and highlights from the rally:

  • The US imports approximately a third of its enriched uranium from Russia

  • There's only one US facility that can enrich uranium

  • That facility was offline for more than 20 years and only resumed production in October 2023

  • The US is on a tight deadline to free itself from its dependency on Russian supply

It's this kind of urgency (coupled with soaring uranium spot prices – which crossed US$90 a pound earlier this month) that can drive such euphoric moves for uranium stocks.

Tracking the performance of the US-listed Global X Uranium ETF can help with anticipating how local names will perform in the upcoming session. On Tuesday night, the ETF rallied 4.0%.

The ETF's top holdings include a few ASX-listed names, so such rallies can result in fund flows to maintain desired weightings.

Key Events

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

  • Trading ex-div: None 

  • Dividends paid: None

  • Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

  • 11:30 am: Australia Balance of Trade (Nov)

  • 12:30 am: US Inflation (Dec)

Written By

Kerry Sun

Content Strategist

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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