Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Nasdaq finish flat as bond yields tick higher

Major US benchmarks finished flat overnight ahead of key inflation data later this week, gold prices settle at another all-time high but shares in gold miners eased, Bitcoin prices add another 3% overnight and within an arms reach of recent highs, Ansell receives a number of broker upgrades following its $400m capital raise to acquire Kimberly-Clark's businesses and the ASX is set to open higher on Tuesday after falling 1.3% in the past week.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 slightly lower amid a relatively range bound session (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

• S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq hovered around breakeven amid a range bound session while the small cap Russell 2000 outperformed

• Relatively quiet start to the week ahead of US inflation and first quarter earnings season

• Bond yields continued to creep higher, with the US 10-year up 21 bps in April as a firmer US growth backdrop seems to be getting more attention 

• Both gold and copper settled higher and reversed early declines of around 1%

• Bitcoin rallied 3.3% to US$71,600 and less than 3% away from recent highs 

• Wells Fargo raises year-end S&P 500 target to 5535 from 4625 citing political outcomes that support more M&A, a multi-year easing cycle ahead and further margin growth (Reuters)

• US banks to kick off first quarter earnings season on Friday, with JPMorgan, Citi, State Street and Wells Fargo all reporting (IG)

• Traders eye 4.5% yield threshold as next test with attention on CPI data (Bloomberg)

• Investors continue to reduce bets on Fed rate cuts, now pricing in just two by the end of 2024 (FT)

• Global stock market concentration hits highest in decades, raising risk for passive investors (FT)

• Oil market will get 'extremely tight' in 2H24, says Citadel (Bloomberg)

• AI demand could lift copper demand by 1m tons by 2030, says Trafigura (Reuters)

• Driving force behind gold rally still unclear with sticky inflation and geopolitics the top contenders (Bloomberg)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to open higher after falling 1.37% in the last five sessions

• Sub-sectors that performed positively overnight include lithium, copper, airlines, steel and fintech while sub-sectors such as uranium, gold miners and energy stocks eased

• Mineral Resources sold 31.5m Develop Global shares at $2.00 per share or 13% of the company to raise cash (AFR)

• Platinum Asset Management reports 31-Mar funds under management of $15.46bn vs. $15.56bn at 29-Feb (PTM)

BROKER NOTES

• Ansell upgraded to Buy from Hold; target increased to $30.85 from $26.0 (Jefferies) 

• Ansell upgraded to Outperform from Underperform; target increased to $26.70 from $25.40 (CSLA)

• Flight Centre downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $18.30 from $20.10 (Goldman Sachs)

• Elders upgraded to Add from Hold; target increased to $9.00 from $7.40 (Morgans)

• MinRes downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $70 from $72 (BofA)

• Nickel Industries downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $0.90 from $1.0 (BofA)

• Regis Resources upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $2.15 from $1.90 (UBS)

• Sandfire Resources downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target up to $9.35 from $8.85 (UBS)

• Whitehaven upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target increased to $8.70 from $6.30 (UBS)

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• 99 Cents Only Stores files for bankruptcy (Bloomberg)

• Alibaba slashing cloud prices globally (Bloomberg)

• Google planned acquisition of HubSpot likely sparks antitrust challenges (Reuters)

• Taiwan Semiconductor’s Arizona subsidiary will receive up to US$6.6bn from the Biden Administration to support semiconductor manufacturing in the US (CNBC)

• Tesla will unveil its robotaxi concept on 8 August (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS

• Hamas reportedly rejects latest ceasefire deal (Times of Israel)

• Netanyahu confirms there is a set date for Rafah invasion (Reuters)

• Russia claims Ukraine attempted to strike nuclear power plant with drone (Reuters)

• Yellen warns China on aiding Russia's war in Ukraine and ready to sanctions Chinese banks (CNBC)

• Yellen says US has taken major steps to stabilise relations with China with relationship on stronger footing (FT)

• Biden to warn China about increasingly aggressive activity in the South China Sea this week during summits (FT)

ECONOMY

• Japan real wages sink for 23rd consecutive month amid higher inflation (Bloomberg)

• Japan service sector sentiment drops in March as bad weather dampens consumer mood (Reuters)

• German industrial production posts surprise beat, led by construction (Bloomberg)

• OECD data shows food inflation across advanced economies drops to its lowest level since before Ukraine war (FT)

• Chinese spending surges during recent long holiday spending, surpasses pre-Covid levels (Reuters)

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 9 April: Brickworks (BKW) – $0.24

• Wed 10 April:

• Thu 11 April:  Cosol (COS) – $0.01, Duxton Water (D20) – $0.036

• Fri 12 April: Kogan (KGN) – $0.075

• Mon 15 April: WAM Active (WAA) – $0.03, Cadence Capital (CDM) – $0.03, SDI (SDI) – $0.015, New Hope (NHC) – $0.17

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Westpac Consumer Confidence (Apr)

• 12:30 pm: NAB Business Confidence (Mar)