Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 dips as oil prices rally, Aussie yields set to cross 5%

ASX 200 futures are down 28 pts (-0.32%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks spent the session trending lower as oil prices continued to climb to levels not seen since August 2022

• Iran hit vessels in Gulf waters, while new leader Mojtaba Khamenei reiterates plans to keep the Strait closed and use it as a weapon against enemies

• Brent and WTI up 8-9% to close above US$100 and US$95 respectively, suggesting conflict is far from ending and driving hawkish outlooks/commentary from global central banks

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Fri 13 Mar 26, 8:22am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,673	-1.52%
Dow Jones	46,678	-1.56%
NASDAQ Comp	22,312	-1.78%
Russell 2000	2,489	-2.12%
Country Indices
Canada	32,841	-0.84%
China	4,129	-0.10%
Germany	23,590	-0.21%
Hong Kong	25,717	-0.70%
India	76,034	-1.08%
Japan	54,453	-1.04%
United Kingdom	10,305	-0.47%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	5,079.11	-1.94%
Copper	5.78	-1.13%
WTI Oil	96.39	+10.39%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7077	+0.01%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	70,315	-0.63%
Ethereum (AUD)	2,919	-0.10%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.273	+1.54%
VIX	27.29	+12.63%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, closed at intraday lows (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks lower and finished at worst levels

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq now down 1% and 0.3% respectively for the week

• Brent is settling above US$100 and WTI above US$95 for the first time since Aug-22 (the Monday spike doesn’t count since prices settled lower)

• Today’s big story – Continued skepticism surrounding an off-ramp in Iran, with new Iranian leader Khamenei planning to keep the Strait closed, Sec Wright noting it could be weeks before military escorts tankers and higher oil prices continuing to feed the hawkish repricing of central bank outlooks

• Bond traders no longer pricing in Fed rates cuts for 2026 (BBG)

• S&P does not see software credit rating downgrades from AI impact on software (BBG)

• Deutsche Bank flags ~$30bn exposure to private credit, reiterates they are not exposed to significant risks (BBG)

• Private credit funds facing potential reduction in "back leverage" from major banks, may impact returns and ability to attract investors (BBG)

ENERGY

• Iran strikes vessels in Gulf waters, Oman evacuates ships at key export terminal, with Brent briefly popping back above US$100 (BBG)

• Iran is allowing some countries, including China, to use Strait of Hormuz (N18)

• Russia's Novorossiysk oil exports 10 days behind schedule in March (BM)

• Russia government is generating an extra US$150m per day in oil revenue amid price surge (FT)

• US confirms plans to release 172m of barrels from SPR, Trump vows to fill reserve back up (BBG)

• IEA warns of unprecedented oil market disruption due to Iran conflict (BBG)

• US oil reserves hit a three-decade low as global supply faces disruption (AX)

• Trump preparing to invoke Defense Production Act to pave way for Stable Offshore Corp to restart oil production off California's coast (BBG)

• China oil refiners have begun cancelling exports of refined fuel cargoes as Beijing looks to manage Middle East disruptions (BBG)

IRAN

• Trump vows to finish the job in Iran after earlier predicting war will end soon (BBG)

• Iran's Mojtaba Khamenei said Strait of Hormuz should remain closed, continue to be used as a tool to pressure enemies, US bases in the region should immediately be closed and will be attacked (BBG)

• 22% chance of a US-Iran ceasefire by end of March, according to Polymarket (POM)

• Iran says ceasefire contingent on guarantee of no future strikes, reparations and recognition of legitimate rights (BBG)

• Trump defends economic policies amid rising gas prices fueled by Iran conflict (WP)

STOCKS

• Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater move to cap private credit fund withdrawals following wave of redemption requests (BBG)

• Honda scraps 3 EVs planned for the US, blaming tariffs and Chinese competition (TC)

• Tinder unveils new speed dating video feature along with deeper AI integration (BBG)

• Oracle reportedly plans layoffs, citing efficiency gains from AI coding tools (FT)

• AI service costs are set to rise as companies prioritise profitability over user acquisition (AX)

• Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone will feature iPad-like layouts and side-by-side apps for multitasking (BBG)

• Atlassian to lay off around 10% of workforce as AI forces change in mix of skills needed (RT)

• Eli Lilly uncovers dangerous impurity in compounded weight-loss drugs containing B12, urging recall (RT)

• Honda anticipates significant financial loss after discontinuing electric vehicle models (FT)

TARIFFS & TRADE

• US launches Section 301 trade probes with China, EU, Mexico, South Korea, Japan and India among targets (RT)

• Trump administration reassures EU on trade deal commitment amid parliament delays (POL)

• South Korea greenlights a $350bn investment fund for US industries (FT)

• South Korea concerned about impact on chipmaking as Hormuz closure disrupts shipment of essential materials (NK)

• Asia company executives begin warning over supply chain risk from Iran conflict (NK)

CENTRAL BANKS

• US Fed's Bowman unveils relaxed bank capital rules (RT)

• Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh meets with more senators as Thom Tillis blockade continues (CNBC)

ECONOMY

• US reports budget deficit of US$1tn for first five months of FY26, down 12% year-on-year (RT)

• EU warns inflation could soar above 3% in 2026 if Brent and gas prices remain elevated (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• AMA Group Chair Brian Austin discloses purchase of 1.5m shares (AMA)

• Domino's Pizza same store sales have been growing in the first two weeks of February, says Chairman Jack Cowin (BBG)

• Vulcan CEO Gavin Williamson discloses purchase of ~8,000 shares, effectively doubling his beneficial ownership (VSL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Yields: Bond yields continue to push levels which typically pressure equity markets and yield-sensitive pockets of the market. The Aussie 10-year is trading around 4.99%, the highest since July 2011.

• Refiners: Will be interesting to see how names like Viva Energy and Ampol trade as the oil supply situation continues to deteriorate. China banned refined fuel exports yesterday (incl gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel), which is effectively ~5% of our fuel imports gone.

• Energy: Bespoke Investment noted the S&P 500 energy sector only gains an average 4.3% when oil rallies 25% or more in a week. Nevertheless, oil is trading like it wants to stay higher for longer, which is also applying upward pressure on coal (absolutely soaring in recent days).

• A heavy day: Lots of sectors on the S&P 500 down more than 1%, while Energy, Utilities and Staples offered some relative safety. Our overnight ETF watchlist also flags broad weakness across the resource, tech and healthcare space.

BROKER MOVES

• Liontown upgraded to Overweight to Neutral; however target lowered to $2.10 from $2.30 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 13 Mar: Ariadne Australia (ARA) – $0.005, CAR Group (CAR) – $0.425, Fleetwood (FWD) – $0.095, Glennon Small Companies (GC1) – $0.01, Glennon Small Companies (GC1PA) – $0.34, Guzman Y GOMEZ (GYG) – $0.074, Wisetech Global (WTC) – $0.096

• Mon 16 Mar: Austin Engineering (ANG) – $0.003, Capricorn Metals (CMM) – $0.05, Chorus (CNU) – $0.173, Comms Group (CCG) – $0.001, Data#3 (DTL) – $0.135, FFI Holdings (FFI) – $0.10, HUB24 (HUB) – $0.36, Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) – $0.10, Pengana Capital Group (PCG) – $0.025, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Po Valley Energy (PVE) – $0.00, Ramelius Resources (RMS) – $0.03, Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $0.013, Wam Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.006, Whitefield Income (WHI) – $0.009

• Tue 17 Mar: Credit Corp Group (CCP) – $0.32, Duratec (DUR) – $0.018, Reece (REH) – $0.054, Seek (SEK) – $0.27

• Wed 18 Mar: Adrad Holdings (AHL) – $0.014, Auckland International Airport (AIA) – $0.055, Brisbane Broncos (BBL) – $0.03, Cti Logistics (CLX) – $0.06, LGI (LGI) – $0.013, Supply Network (SNL) – $0.36

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Ansell (ANN), Ashley Services Group (ASH), Insurance Australia Group (IAG), JB Hi-Fi (JBH), Schaffer (SFC), SHAPE Australia (SHA), Stanmore Resources (SMR), Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Earnings: EQR Resources (EQR)*

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 6:00 pm: UK GDP

• 11:30 pm: Canada Unemployment Rate

• 11:30 pm: US Core PCE Price Index

• 11:30 pm: US Durable Goods Orders

• 1:00 am: US JOLTs Job Openings