Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to edge up, S&P 500 ends 5-week winning streak + Cochlear, A2 Milk results

The S&P 500 snapped a 5-week winning streak as another hotter-than-expected inflation report weighed on risk appetite, Goldman Sachs says a record amount of buybacks are set to follow after quarterly reporting season, China's Lunar New Year travel and spending data indicates robust consumer activity over the holiday, lithium stocks soar on production cut speculation and reporting season ramps up, with key results from Bendigo Bank, Cochlear, A2 Milk and more.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, finished near worst levels (Source: TradingView)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 to edge higher after a solid overnight session for the Resource sector (but weakness pretty much everywhere else)

• Companies due to report today include Ampol, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, BlueScope Steel, Cochlear, GPT Group, Reliance Worldwide, Imdex and more

• A2 Milk reports 1H24 NPAT of NZ$85.3m, above NZ$71.6m consensus

• Cochlear reports 1H24 underlying NPAT of $191.8m, in-line with consensus

• Neuren Pharmaceuticals tumbled on Friday after Culper Research released a short report on its partner Acadia and DAYBUE drug (Culper Research)

• CVC Capital seeks to re-enter Australian market with APM buy (AFR)

• ANZ optimistic ACT will approve its purchase of Suncorp (AFR)

• Patriot Battery Metals may be a takeover target (The Australian) 

• Australian government considering tax credits for nickel mining industry (AFR)

• Inghams upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie, target price cut to $4.20 from $4.50

• Whitehaven Coal upgraded to Buy from Accumulate at Ord Minnett, target price cut to $8.60 from $8.80 

• Tyro Payments initiated Buy at Shaw and Partners, target is $1.60 

• Pro Medicus downgraded to Sell from Hold at Bell Potter, target price remains $75.00

• GQG Partners reinstated Buy at Goldman Sachs, target price of $2.40 

MARKETS

• S&P 500 lower, sold off in the last hour of trade to finish near worst levels

• Markets under pressure, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing the week down -0.42% and -1.34% respectively

• Inflation (both CPI and PPI) have come out hotter-than-expected, lending support for the “higher for longer” Fed narrative and pushing out first rate cut expectations to June

• Bullish focus points for the week – Disinflation theme remains intact, small cap outperformance, operational efficiency as a Q4 earnings theme, dry powder dynamic, record buyback authorisations and AI proliferation

• Bearish focus points for the week – Disinflation headwinds with hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI readings, repricing of Fed pivot expectations, market’s track record of premature policy pivots, weaker-than-expected January retail sales, stretched positioning and sentiment indicators and more AI bubble talk 

• Goldman Sachs says corporates have put up a record February in terms of buy back authorisation and purchase 

• BofA’s Flow Show notes US$18.4bn left money funds in the week-ended 14 February, the most in eight weeks (Reuters)

• Analysts see Japan 10-year yield topping 1.0% for first time since 2012 (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• Apple working on AI product to compete with Microsoft's Github copilot (Bloomberg)

• OpenAI teases new AI system that can create realistic videos (Bloomberg)

• Nike plans to cut about 2% jobs in push for US$2bn worth of savings (Bloomberg)

• Coinbase share rally after posting first quarterly profit in two years (CNBC)

• Tech restaurant company Toast will cut 550 employees from workforce (Bloomberg)

• JPMorgan and State Street exit climate change investor coalition (Reuters)

• Senator Rubio asks SEC to block Shein IPO unless China concerns addressed (Reuters)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Atlanta Fed President Bostic argues for patience on rate cuts (Bloomberg)

• BOJ Governor Ueda says stimulus to be reassessed when inflation target in sight (Reuters)

• ECB's Schnabel warns again against cutting rates too early (Bloomberg)

• ECB's Villeroy says central bank should cut gradually rather than too late (Bloomberg)

• RBNZ Governor Orr says more work needed to anchor inflation at 2% (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS

• Biden warns Israeli PM to do more to protect civilians in Rafah offensive (Bloomberg)

• White House confirms "troubling" intel on Russian anti-satellite capability, but says no immediate threat to safety (FT)

• NATO members sounding the alarm on Russia's aggressive posture (FT)

• UK Conservatives in double blow as opposition Labour wins two by-elections (FT)

CHINA

• China Lunar New Year travel and spending data indicate robust consumer activity over holiday (Bloomberg)

• China developer Logan Group wins reprieve after court rules against creditors' liquidation petition (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• US producer inflation increased more than expected in January amid strong gains in the cost of services (Reuters)

• US consumer sentiment steady in February, slightly below consensus (Reuters)

• Japan GDP seen remaining in contraction until Q2 (Nikkei)

• UK retail sales rebound in January after Christmas slump (FT)

Big News for Lithium

Plenty of bullish developments popped up over the weekend for lithium. It's worth noting that names like Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) rallied 7.2% last Friday.

• Unconfirmed speculation: The CATL Jianxiawo mine was reportedly shut down before Chinese New Year and CATL may be reluctant to continue production below 95,000 yuan (US$13,000) a tonne for lithium carbonate.

• Barrenjoey assumptions: The speculation signals that we are approaching the lows for this lithium cycle. If CATL, the world's largest battery producer, is turning off lepidolite production, then surely a lot more producers will follow. If Jianxiawo is taken out of the analysts supply and demand models, it would see the market move from a ~1% surplus to a ~2% deficit in 2024.

• Government tax credits: The AFR reported Albanese government plans to fast-track a system of production tax credits for the nickel mining industry. The article also outlined plans to extend the credits to lithium miners should prices continue to fall.

The most heavily shorted stocks on the ASX include #1 Pilbara Minerals, #3 Core Lithium, #4 Sayona Mining and #16 Liontown Resources.

Super Gains, Super Losses

Nasdaq-listed Super Micro Computer, which specialises in providing high-performance server and storage solutions, rallied as much as 250% year-to-date to a brief high of $1,077.

It finished last Friday's session down 25% from record highs, closing at $803 .The stock hit a daily RSI of 97, the second ever stock to do so. The first was Gamestop.

The move should serve as a reminder that a) be careful buying parabolic moves; b) never risk more than you are willing to lose and c) it's best to be early in (and possibly early out) of bubbles.

Bank of America says the AI-Magnificent 7-Tech bubble has a little more room to run, relative to previous bubbles.

Source: Bank of America, Bloomberg

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Trading ex-div: Diverger (DVR) – $0.10

• Dividends paid: Nickel Industries (NIC) – $0.025 

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.