Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 slips on strong jobs data, Tech stocks set for further weakness

ASX 200 futures are up 3 pts (+0.03%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks slightly lower, with the S&P 500 (-0.01%), Dow (-0.13%) and Nasdaq (-0.16%) all closing around the midpoint of today's trading range

• Breadth was still very solid, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.18%) closing at a fourth straight all-time high, buoyed by strength in resources and defensives

• US nonfarm payrolls increased 130,000 last month, almost double market expectations

• The busiest results day yet, with AMP, Breville, Insurance Australia, Origin and more due to report

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 flat after a volatile open (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks lower, finished around the midpoint of today's trading range

• Breadth was positive, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.18%) closing at a fourth straight all-time high amid gains for resources and defensives

• Stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls offset recent batch of disappointing labour data, resulting in bond yields edging higher and a slight easing of Fed rate cut expectations (likelihood of three 25 bp cuts down to 24.0% from 26.9%, according to CME's Fedwatch tool)

• Market breadth continues to improve, with strength shown in resources and defensives, while software stocks continued to tank (e.g. SAP, Salesforce, Intuit, Autodesk etc. all down 3-5% overnight)

• Bill Ackman bets $2bn in Meta, says stock is deeply undervalued (CNBC)

• CME Group is reportedly planning first ever rare earth futures contract (RT)

• Bankers say software selloff disrupting M&A and IPO pipeline due to volatility, valuation uncertainty (RT)

• Wealth management, brokerage firms become latest group to be hit AI competition concerns (BBG)

• Sell-side analysts argue software selloff creates rebound opportunities (BBG)

• Asia stocks see heavy foreign outflows amid February's tech-driven selloff (RT)

• Chinese regulators ramp up market overnight to create conditions for a "slow bull" (RT)

STOCKS

• Charles Schwab CEO says AI is poised to aid the wealth-management sector rather than hurt it (BBG)

• Kraft Heinz halted efforts to split company due to deteriorating conditions in food industry (RT)

• Heineken CEO says company will cut up to 6,000 jobs in AI productivity savings push (CNBC)

• Susquehanna-backed crypto lender BlockFills halts withdrawals, restricts trading on platform (FT)

• Micron says HBM4 chip have started to ship early, sees strong demand through 2026 (SW)

• Ford reportedly boosting company-wide bonus to 130% (CNBC)

• Elliott Investment Management acquires stake in London Stock Exchange amid AI disruption and falling listings (FT)

• OpenAI explores shopping in ChatGPT as a key revenue stream but faces state sales tax challenges (TI)

• Blackstone raises Anthropic investment by $200m, lifting its stake to ~$1bn, valuing company at $350bn (BBG)

• Cloudflare forecasts Q1 and annual sales above estimates, driven by AI technology demand, shares up 5.3pc (RT)

• Robinhood Q4 profit declines 34% as crypto trading revenue falls, management outline plans for market expansions, shares tumble 8.8pc (BBG)

• Mattel shares dive 25pc after holiday results miss estimates and 2026 profit forecast declines (BBG)

• TSMC expands to Japan to meet soaring AI demand (NK)

TARIFFS & TRADE

• House Speaker Johnson's effort to block votes on tariffs fails, opening path for vote on blocking Canada tariffs (POL)

• Taiwan to assess US rare earths deposits for potential refining (RT)

• European parliament nearing approval of US trade deal after lawmakers agree to some changes (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Traders trim rate cut bets after January nonfarm payrolls come in stronger than expected (USN)

• Fed's Schmid says further rate cuts risk allowing high inflation to persist even longer (BBG)

• Trump-Takaichi summit looms over March BOJ meeting, US may step up pressure to normalise policy (NK)

• PBOC reaffirms moderately loose monetary policy, vow to support domestic demand (RT)

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser stresses importance of preventing higher inflation being entrenched (BBG)

GEOPOLITICS

• Trump says 'nothing definitive' yet reach during talks with Iran (RT)

ECONOMY

• US January payrolls of ~130,000 vs. 75,000 ests, the highest since December 2024, unemployment rate unch at 4.4% vs. 4.3% ests (BBG)

• Trump plans to use government funding and Pentagon contracts to support US coal power plants (BBG)

• China CPI inflation slows partly due to calendar effects, PPI deflation narrows amid commodity rally (CNBC)

ASX TODAY

• I'm already nervous about the sheer volume of results starting to pour in. We'll be transferring all the usual coverage you see here to the Live Blog. I hope to cover as many results as humanly possible (plus whether or not that beat ests) before market open.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Nickel: Nickel prices rallied 3.0% to US$17,966 (still ~7% off recent highs but up ~25% since mid-Dec). Indonesia ordered the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay, to cut its 2026 production quot to 12Mt (vs. 42Mt in 2025, so a 71% cut) to tighten global supply and lift prices. Not many nickel plays left on the market, but definitely a positive catalyst for names like Nickel Industries, Centaurus, Nico Resources and more.

• Tech weakness: US software stocks continued to tank overnight, with most names down 3-5%. Just flicking through the charts of a few names, Adobe (-2.8%) undercut recent lows, SAP (-4.5%) just 2.7% away from recent lows, Salesforce (-4.3%) also failed to hold recent lows. Goes to show how fickle the recent bounce was. Not a good lead in for local names.

BROKER MOVES

• Computershare upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight; target up to $32.40 from $32.10 (MS)

• James Hardie upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $41.50 from $33.00 (JPM)

• SGH downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $53.05 from $54.30 (MQG)

• SGH downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target remains $54.50 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 12 Feb: Apiam Animal Health (AHX) – $0.10, Korvest (KOV) – $0.25, Scentre Group (SCG) – $0.089

• Fri 13 Feb: Argo Investments (ARG) – $0.185, Bailador Technology (BTI) – $0.039, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Whitefield Income (WHI) – $0.006

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: AMP (AMP), Breville Group (BRG), EVT (EVT), Insurance Australia Group Ltd (IAG), Northern Star Resources (NST), Origin Energy (ORG), Orora (ORA), Pro Medicus (PME), South32 (S32), Temple & Webster Group (TPW), Viva Leisure (VVA)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 6:00 pm: UK GDP growth (Dec)