Evening Wrap: ASX 200 gold, silver, iron ore, base metals all rocketing! Have Aussie resources investors ever had it so good?

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 16.6 points higher, up 0.19%.

Gold and silver stocks are still going berserk, as are critical minerals stocks (Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) up another 5%!), but they were joined today by iron ore and base metals stocks. Okay, let’s just say that any company involved in digging stuff out of the ground had a very good day! More broadly though, most other sectors slipped – even as US markets bounced.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 16.6 points higher at 8,899.4, 0.63% from its session low and just 0.17% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a modest 147 to 26.

Fund flows: The winds are blowing 💨!

What can I say? Gold (XGD) (+2.9%) and Resources (XJR) (+2.3%) more generally – incredible strength 💪! The two hottest sectors today – but to be fair – they've been that way for several weeks now. The funds have been moving into them en-masse, and I've been pointing this fact out here each day, for just as long as well!

Down the bottom of the sector performance list (if Gold and Resources are "target sectors", think of these as "funding sectors") were Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-1.0%), and Financials (XFJ) (-0.54%). Financials have been neither here nor there, so I wouldn't call it a funding sector just yet based on its technical trends – but it has been at least a temporary funder for two days in a row now... 🤔

Discretionary – definitely a funding sector – and it has been since the last RBA board meeting (hawkish pause). Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.25%) was up today, but miniscule relative to the Nasdaq's bounce and to the ground it's lost over the last couple of weeks. Considering major sector constituents Wisetech Global (WTC) (0.0%) and Xero (XRO) (+0.45%) have featured a few times in my ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends Scan List recently, I'm going to go with funding sector here, too.

The Aussie stock market is small, so when the funds shift capital around, it can have a major impact. Investors should always be aware of which way the fund flow winds are blowing! 💨

Stock specifics: Crow 🐦‍⬛!

"A bit like shooting fish in a barrel with a bazooka" 💥. That's how you'd describe trading small-cap ASX mining stocks right now, particularly those with even the slightest sniff of precious metals or critical minerals exposure! I don't usually call out my ChartWatch ASX Scans wins, but with 3 of them up more than 50% today... permit me to crow for just a moment! 😉

Yes, me too... just like you, I was also thinking that when it's this easy to make money in spec's it's usually a sign of a very hot market 🔥🔥🔥! And we all know markets like this don't last forever. But, with careful consideration of trends, price action, and candles – plus most important of all: diligent and disciplined risk management – there's no reason why one cannot make hay while the sun (and the trends) are shining! 🧐

On this note, if you'd like my opinion on a couple of stocks in your portfolio, or perhaps that you're interested in buying – be sure to register for and attend my ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar using the above link 👆. The next one is tomorrow, so I'll see you at lunchtime!

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

Net-net over the last two sessions we’ve basically matched the move in US stocks. Today’s rally may seem underwhelming (okay, it was!), but we didn’t fall as much yesterday in response to their Friday sell off.

Hey, it is the Old Tin Pot we’re talking about – and we get what we’re given 🤷!

The last candle on the chart above suggests a modest demand-side showing (small white body, modest downward pointing shadow, close above the balance point of the candle – but disappointing it wasn’t at the session’s high).

The short term uptrend ribbon appears to be doing its job of acting as a zone of dynamic excess demand. The old 8877-8893 trading range top (and ex-zone of supply) appears to be acting as a zone of demand. I’ve seen worse technicals, is what I’m trying to say…

It was interesting we even made that lower shadow this morning, though. For me, that’s the most “what’s with that?” thing about today! Why was there a follow through of yesterday’s excess supply when today was supposed to a hold and buy / no big reason to supply sort of day? 🤔

Hey – if we stayed down there – it would have been a very, very bad look indeed. The fact the demand-side limped in to regain some semblance of control by the end of the session is a major relief!

Where to from here? Well, you know I don’t do prognostications (because the future is unknown and impossible to predict!), but I can say from experience that there’s a “warm chance” we can push back up towards the 8991-9055 zone. The demand-side seems to be active enough between 8731-8893 / the short term trend ribbon to consider this a More Often Than Not (MOTN) prospect.

View: I see no reason to deviate from my FRP (Full Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 100%).

Key levels: 8991-9055 is the key zone of supply, I will be very watchful for signs of excess supply in there. 8731 is the most important near-term point of demand, the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of the XJO’s price = ⚠️

Economy

Today

• AUS September NAB Business Confidence

  • Confidence: +7 points vs +4 points in August

  • Conditions: +8 points, unchanged

  • Comments: “Both business confidence and conditions appear to be consolidating slightly above trend after improving through mid-2025,” said NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld.

  • View: Australia’s business sector remains resilient, with the latest survey showing steady activity despite softer hiring and easing forward orders. This resilience, alongside moderating cost pressures (labour costs rose just 1.5%), strengthens the case for the RBA to stay patient.

Wednesday

• 03:20 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

• 12:30 CHN September Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Producer Price Index (PPI)

  • CPI: -0.2% p.a. forecast vs -0.4% p.a. in August

  • PPI: -2.3% p.a. forecast vs -2.9% p.a. in August

Thursday

• 06:45 AUS RBA Gov Bullock Speaks

• 11:30 AUS September Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

  • Employment Change: +20,000 forecast vs -5,400 in August

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.3% forecast vs 4.2% in August

• 23:30 (Tentative due to shutdown) USA September Core PPI

• 23:30 (Tentative due to shutdown) USA September Retail Sales

Friday

23:30 (Tentative due to shutdown) USA September Building & Housing Permits

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +100.0% Cobalt Blue Holdings (COB) - Response to ASX Price Query and LGM: NiCo Young Update and Cobalt Blue MoU, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +67.6% Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +55.6% Resolution Minerals (RML) - RML Briefing Ambassador ahead Meeting with US President, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +53.8% European Lithium (EUR) - Continued positive response to 13-Oct EUR sells further 3.85million CRML shares for US$50m (A$76m), general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +42.0% Northern Minerals (NTU) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +31.0% Hastings Technology Metals (HAS) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +29.3% SRG Global (SRG) - TAMS Acquisition Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +29.1% Australian Rare Earths (AR3) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +26.9% Ionic Rare Earths (IXR) - US Strategic Investment Enhances IXR Rights Issue, Placement, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +25.4% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +24.6% American Rare Earths (ARR) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +21.6% Larvotto Resources (LRV) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +19.8% Syrah Resources (SYR) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +18.5% St George Mining (SGQ) - Continued positive response to 13-Aug A$72.5M Raised For Araxa Rare Earths-Niobium Project, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +18.4% Manuka Resources (MKR) - Response to ASX price query letter, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +18.2% Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +17.1% Meteoric Resources (MEI) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.4% West Wits Mining (WWI) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.3% Benz Mining Corp. (BNZ) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.1% Minerals 260 (MI6) - Australian Gold Conference Presentation, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -10.4% Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today (yesterday's hero!).

• -9.3% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - Co-PSMA trial achieves primary endpoint.

• -8.4% Dateline Resources (DTR) - No news (yesterday's hero!).

• -7.8% Elsight (ELS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today (yesterday's hero!).

• -7.1% Trigg Minerals (TMG) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -7.0% Cettire (CTT) - No news 🤔.

• -6.8% EQT Holdings (EQT) - Continued negative response to 13-Oct Update on ASIC proceedings against ETSL, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.5% Droneshield (DRO) - No news since 13-Oct DroneSentry Solution Recognised as NPSA Rated, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today (yesterday's hero!).

• -6.4% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) - No news (yesterday's hero!).

Broker Moves

AIC Mines (A1M)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.55 from $0.50

Alpha HPA (A4N)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00

Aeris Resources (AIS)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.66 from $0.55

Alkane Resources (ALK)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.45

Aurelia Metals (AMI)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.38 from $0.39

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $38.92 from $36.20

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $34.00 from $30.00

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $31.11 from $29.28

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.00 from $33.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $30.50

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $30.00

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $30.00 from $26.50

Arena REIT (ARF)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.01

Baby Bunting Group (BBN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.04

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.40

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $45.00

Beacon Lighting Group (BLX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.38

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.10

Bathurst Resources (BRL)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.98 from $0.94

Catapult Sports (CAT)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.90 from $6.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.00

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.01

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.56

Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.20

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.10

Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.41

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.32 from $0.26

Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.16

Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.14

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.46

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $10.20 from $9.55

Fletcher Building (FBU)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.50

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.25 from $5.90

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.50

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.73

Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.69

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.26

HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.78

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.41

HUB24 (HUB)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $109.00

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.10 from $6.60

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.74

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.50 from $16.50

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.39 from $0.34

Minerals 260 (MI6)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.55 from $0.50

Metals X (MLX)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.80

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $140.00

National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.63

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $25.80 from $24.30

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.60

PlaySide Studios (PLY)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.43

Pantoro Gold (PNR)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.65 from $6.35

Polymetals Resources (POL)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.60 from $1.40

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.10

Qualitas (QAL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.98

QPM Energy (QPM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.13

Region Group (RGN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.47

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $119.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $112.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $130.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.70 from $4.30

St Barbara (SBM)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.58 from $0.50

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.15

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.00

SEEK (SEK)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $31.65

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $16.45 from $13.35

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.16

Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $23.80 from $26.40

Stanmore Resources (SMR)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.55

Tuas (TUA)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.50

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.50 from $7.00

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $9.50 from $9.90

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $7.70 from $9.20

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $8.50 from $10.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.40 from $8.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.90 from $8.70

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Morgans; Price Target: $6.35 from $10.10

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.00 from $9.50

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.50 from $10.00

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.84 from $0.80

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.49

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.00 from $4.25

Westgold Resources (WGX)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.60 from $6.00

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.90

Scans