Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Nasdaq bounce + Commodities surge (copper, gold and more)

ASX 200 futures are up 27 pts (+0.30%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher, recouped roughly half of last Friday's losses

• Massive session for commodities, gold surged through US$4,100 with ease, copper recovered the entirety of Friday's selloff and more

• Trump declares Gaza war over, eyes Middle East normalisation though topics like Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance and Israeli withdrawal still to be negotiated

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped up, trended higher to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher, closed near session highs, recouped roughly half of last Friday’s declines

• Massive session for commodities, with gold at fresh all-time highs and above US$4,100, copper up almost 6% and more (oil, palladium, coal etc.)

• Rebound largely tabbed to slight de-escalation in US-China trade tensions, still no movement on US government shutdown

• JPMorgan attributes extreme Friday selloff to levered ETFs (BBG)

• Hedge funds pivoted into global industrial stocks last week and dumped US equities (RT)

• Gold breaks US$4,100 with ease on trade tensions, soaring demand and rate-cut optimism (RT)

• IPO market is still in regulatory limbo due to shutdown despite apparent SEC fix (YF)

STOCKS

• OpenAI picks Broadcom to build its first AI processor in latest chip deal, Broadcom shares up 9.8% (RT)

• Hydrogen company Bloom Energy announces deal with Brookfield to put fuel cells in AI data centers (CNBC)

• JPMorgan says it will invest $10 billion into industries critical for national security (CNBC)

• Apple will open iPhone Air pre-orders in China on 17-Oct (BBG)

• Salesforce to invest $15bn in San Francisco as AI race heats up (USN)

• Amazon to hire 250,000 workers during holiday season for third straight year (YF)

• Michelin cuts guidance for 2025 due to weak North America sales (BBG)

• GM's early bet on US rare earth magnets shields it from China supply crunch (WSJ)

TARIFFS

• White House signaled openness to deal with China (BBG)

• Bessent said he still expects Trump and Xi to meet (YF)

• Xi draws trade war red lines with rare earths controls as Trump threatens 100% tariffs (BBG)

• Switzerland accelerates China trade talks to counter US tariff squeeze (BBG)

• Australia eyes mineral price floors and US deal to challenge China rare earth dominance (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson makes first speech, said she favors two more 25 bp cuts this year (BBG)

• Economists scrap forecasts for negative Swiss rates amid SNB caution (BBG)

GEOPOLITICS 

• Trump declares Gaza war over, eyes Middle East normalisation on Israel trip (RT)

• Trump urges Israel and Palestinians to embrace peace after Hamas frees all living hostages (CBS)

• Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance and full Israeli withdrawal remain sticking points to be negotiated (EN)

• Trump and Zelensky to discuss Tomahawks for Ukraine at White House Friday, according to sources (AX)

ECONOMY

• US growth outlook brightens with AI Boom, but tariffs and weak hiring cloud jobs (WSJ)

• China's exports surge 8.3% in September despite US trade tensions (FT)

ASX TODAY

• Alliance Aviation Services under the eyes of private equity, Pacific Equity Partners running the ruler (The Aus)

• Myer block trade: 35m shares or ~2% of the company crossed at 47.5 cents per share, Solomon Lew the likely buyer (AFR)

• Johns Lyng Group scheme arrangement with Pacific Equity Partners approved by NSW Supreme Court, shares will be suspended from close of trading on 14 Oct (JLG)

• Light & Wonder confirms plans to delist from the Nasdaq, effective prior to open on 13-Nov-25, transitions to sole primary listing on the ASX (LNW)

• ResMed receives patent infringement complaint from Fractus in the Southern District of California, alleges ResMed’s sleep apnea devices infringe multiple Fractus patents (RMD)

• Wildcat Resources looking for partner for its Tabba Tabba lithium mine, willing to sell 50% of the mine (AFR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Legendary lead in for commodities: The commodity bull market is in full throttle (I say 'bull' market but its more like supply crunch/safe havens and US nationalisation). Copper up massively overnight, with Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) up 6.0%. VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) up 14.0%, with MP Materials surging 21.2% and plenty of ASX-listed ADRs up massively (e.g. Ioneer up 20.1% overnight). Pretty much every commodity you can name (palladium, silver, uranium and to a lessor extend nickel, coal etc.) all up strongly overnight.

BROKER MOVES

• Santos reinstated Overweight with $7.90 target (JPM)

• Treasury Wine Estates downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $6.50 from $10.00 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 14 Oct: Sandon Capital Investments (SNC) – $0.005, Star Combo Pharma (S66) – $0.004, Wam Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.003

• Wed 15 Oct: Cadence Capital (CDM) – $0.03, Cadence Opportunities Fund (CDO) – $0.07, Horizon Oil (HZN) – $0.015, Perenti (PRN) – $0.043, United Overseas Australia (UOS) – $0.005, Wam Research (WAX) – $0.05

• Thu 16 Oct: Gowing Bros (GOW) – $0.03, K & S Corporation (KSC) – $0.08, Wam Microcap (WMI) – $0.053

• Fri 17 Oct: FFI Holdings (FFI) – $0.125

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: BlueScope Steel (BSL), Endeavour Group (EDV), Hub24 (HUB), Love Group (LVE), Qube Holdings (QUB), Saunders International (SND), Veris (VRS), WT Financial (WTL)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: Nexsen (NXN) at 12:30 pm

• AGMs: Aussie Broadband (ABB), Telstra (TLS) 

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 am: Australia Business Confidence (SEP)

• 10:30 am: RBA Meeting Minutes 

• 4:00 pm: UK Unemployment Rate (Aug)

• 2:20 am: Fed Chair Powell Speech