Evening Wrap: ASX 200's tiny gain hides rampant bull market in copper and critical minerals stocks like SFR, CSC, LYC and ARU

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 22.2 points higher, up 0.25%.

Fund flows into resources themes like copper, precious metals and critical minerals show no signs of abating… however… I note that "hot" is "very hot" right now. Nothing goes up in a straight line forever if you get my drift! 🔥🔥🔥

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 22.2 points higher at 8,969.8, roughly at the mid-point of the session's range, 0.25% from its session low and 0.31% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by to 168 to 109.

Fund flows

Another subdued day with few major leads outside of the continuing Resources (XJR) (+1.7%) is king plus small caps are melting up dynamic (S&P/ASX Emerging Companies Index (XEX) (+1.4%)). Fund flows into these themes show no signs of abating… however… I note that "hot" is "very hot" right now. Nothing goes up in a straight line forever if you get my drift! 🔥🔥🔥

The rest were thoroughly uninteresting 🥱. Bond proxies struggled again, Utilities (XUJ) (-0.58%) the worst, and National Australia Bank (NAB) (-1.4%) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) (-0.2%) dragging on Financials (XFJ) (-0.47%).

Stock specifics

The big miners continue to gather steam, check my technical analysis on them in today's edition of ChartWatch Markets. Copper exploded today (copper prices rose on COMEX overnight, again, see that article for analysis). Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+5.3%) and Capstone Copper Corp (CSC) (+7.6%) gapped higher and largely stayed there.

The FOMO panic buying extended in to critical minerals, with Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) (+8.8%) and Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (+5.3%) also showing strong gains. Sure, it's hot... but make hay while the sun is shining I always say. ChartWatch ASX Scans has been all over SFR, CSC, and LYC for several months, ARU is a more recent edition.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

We’re treading water here. A decent start met overhead supply lurking in the 8991-9055 supply zone. The demand-side didn’t have the desire to push the point… roughly steady in the afternoon... and overall, largely a snoozefest…🥱 At least the market breadth was half decent (168-109).

“Half decent”.

Sounds like the perfect description of the XJO’s technicals at the moment. Notice I didn’t call it the “Golden Le Creuset” or the “Old Tin Pot” there? 😉

That’s because I’m not completely sure which personality the XJO wants to take on here! We’re still in the shadow of last week’s strong move out of the 8731-8893 trading range – but this week’s performance has left a great deal to be desired.

Today’s upward pointing shadow, just tipping 8991-9055 is frustrating, but is more likely symptomatic of malaise rather than indecision. I still believe the demand-side is in control here, simply that they’re not in any great hurry yet.

We need a catalyst to break through 8991-9055. I’m not sure what that will be (I don’t do predictions, remember), but I do expect that when it comes, we’ll see a rush of FOMO demand flooding into a market with little motivated supply.

View: Sticking with the prevailing uptrend and FRP (Full Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 100%).

Key levels: 8991-9055 is the key zone of supply, I will be very watchful for signs of excess supply in there. 8731 is the most important near-term point of demand, the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of the XJO’s price = ⚠️

Economy

Today

• AUS September MI Inflation Expectations

  • +4.8% p.a. vs +4.7% p.a. in August (i.e., high and worse than expected!)

Later this week

Thursday

• 23:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks

Friday

• 12:00 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock speaks

• 22:30 (Tentative due to shutdown) USA September Non-farm Payrolls

  • Non-Farm Employment Change: +52,000 forecast vs +22,000 in August

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in August

  • Unemployment Rate: +4.3% forecast vs +4.3% in August

Saturday

• 01:00 USA October Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment (54.6 forecast vs 55.1 previous)

• 01:00 USA October Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations (+4.7% p.a. in September)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +226.1% Infini Resources (I88) – Extensive Downhole Uranium Intersected at Portland Creek.

• +41.2% Marmota (MEU) – Greenewood maiden drill program yields bonanza gold grades, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +29.0% Strickland Metals (STK) – Gravity Survey Highlights New Porphyry Targets at Rogozna, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends.

• +26.7% Haranga Resources (HAR) – Continued positive response to 08-Oct Spectacular High-Grade Gold Intercepts Confirmed, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +22.6% L1 Group (L1G) – Assets Under Management - September 2025.

• +18.6% Ioneer (INR) – Continued positive response to US government's equity stake in Thacker Pass lithium project, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +18.2% European Lithium (EUR) – CRML Signs Another Offtake LOI Tanbreez Rare Earths Project, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +17.3% G50 Corp (G50) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.3% Meteoric Resources (MEI) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.3% Trigg Minerals (TMG) – No news since 08-Oct Geological Breakthrough At Antimony Canyon Patented Claims, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +13.3% COG Financial Services (COG) – Investor Presentation Capital Raising, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.0% Renascor Resources (RNU) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +11.1% Race Oncology (RAC) – International G4 Expert Laurence Hurley Joins Race SAB, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.8% Lindian Resources (LIN) – Continued positive response to 08-Oct Kangankunde Early Works Program Completed On Time and Budget, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.7% Broken Hill Mines (BHM) – Mining and Processing of High Grade Ore at Main LodeN, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.5% Encounter Resources (ENR) – Continued positive response to 06-Oct Outstanding High-Grade Niobium Intersections Expand Green rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.4% Metals X (MLX) – No news, upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity and price target increased to $0.95 from $0.58, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.3% Chalice Mining (CHN) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -21.2% Findi (FND) - Guidance & market update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -9.9% Benz Mining Corp. (BNZ) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -9.6% Painchek (PCK) - No news, pulled back after yesterday's sharp rally due to PainChek FDA Cleared to Commence Sales in US$100M US Market.

• -9.6% Austal (ASB) - Becoming a substantial holder (possible short seller activity).

• -9.3% Betmakers Technology Group (BET) - No news 🤔.

• -8.8% Argent Minerals (ARD) - No news, general weakness across the broader Silver sector today.

• -7.1% Silver Mines (SVL) - No news, general weakness across the broader Silver sector today.

Broker Moves

29Metals (29M)

• Retained at sell at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.30 from $0.16

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.25

Abacus Group (ABG)

• Initiated at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.31 from $1.29

Acusensus (ACE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.05 from $1.30

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.30

Ampol (ALD)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $35.00

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Initiated at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $37.54

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.50

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $44.00

Boab Metals (BML)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.77 from $0.60

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.20

CAR Group (CAR)

• Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $42.20

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Initiated at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $130.18

Comet Ridge (COI)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.25 from $0.24

Carnarvon Energy (CVN)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.16 from $0.18

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $11.00 from $9.26

Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $4.30 from $4.85

Develop Global (DVP)

• Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.40

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Initiated at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.00

Emerald Resources NL (EMR)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.00

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at trim at Morgans; Price Target: $10.20 from $7.30

FireFly Metals (FFM)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.65

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $19.10 from $19.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $19.00 from $20.00

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $24.00

Hillgrove Resources (HGO)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.05 from $0.08

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.10

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $5.50 from $5.00

Imdex (IMD)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $3.80 from $3.45

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $38.50 from $37.10

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $32.00 from $29.00

Karoon Energy (KAR)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.05

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.50 from $6.00

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.00

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.70

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.35

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.30 from $0.20

Meeka Metals (MEK)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.31 from $0.27

Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $10.20 from $10.00

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.65 from $8.55

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.65

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $10.70

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70

Minerals 260 (MI6)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.50 from $0.38

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $45.00 from $41.00

Metals X (MLX)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.95 from $0.58

Medallion Metals (MM8)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.61 from $0.41

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Initiated at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $38.00

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.68

National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.80

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $27.44 from $124.00

NRW Holdings (NWH)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.50 from $4.05

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $1.55

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.35

• Retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $1.45 from $1.28

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $13.50

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $10.30 from $9.00

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.60

Pantoro Gold (PNR)

• Downgraded to trim from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $5.96 from $5.22

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $23.30

Redox (RDX)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.50

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $112.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.00

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $6.00 from $5.80

South32 (S32)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.20

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $14.25 from $12.50

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $16.00 from $12.75

Strickland Metals (STK)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.50

Santos (STO)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $7.75

Strike Energy (STX)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.11 from $0.17

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.60

Turaco Gold (TCG)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.63 from $1.29

Transurban Group (TCL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.10

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $14.30 from $14.09

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $14.10 from $14.20

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.55 from $14.18

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $13.88

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $14.60 from $14.50

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $14.85 from $14.75

Tesoro Gold (TSO)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.27 from $0.21

Viva Energy Group (VEA)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.90

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Initiated at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $37.63

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $33.00

Scans