ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 9th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, October 9. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Global markets surge to new highs

[1:48 pm] The ASX 200 is again knocking on the door of the 9,000 point mark, but further afield, there's a number of global stock indices setting records of their own.

To name but three:

Japan's Nikkei 225 passed 48,000 points for the first time ever this week as the pro-business, pro-spending Sanae Takaichi looks set to become the country's new prime minister.

The UK's FTSE 100 also set a new all-time high, passing the 9,500 point mark for the first time due to strong performance from its banking and mining stocks.

The STOXX Europe 600, which had been trading mostly sideways since its Liberation Day recovery, has also moved past 570 points for the first time this month.

By Tom Stelzer

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Fast food, fast moves

[1:27 pm] We reported earlier that Guzman y Gomez had been bouncing around like a piñata following a sales growth guidance beat (and $100m share buyback).

It soared as high as 26% this morning, but is now back to break even on the day.

But one beneficiary appears to be Domino's, which is now up 5.32% today on the back of the GYG result.

By Tom Stelzer

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Tech stocks fade early gains

[1:11 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index was up as much as 1.22% in early trade, now at session lows of -0.37%. Lots of names have faded early gains, such as:

• Wisetech up 1.8%, now down 0.1%

• TechnologyOne up 1.0%, now down 1.4%

• NextDC up 1.1%, now down 1.7%

The catalyst behind the risk-off mood remains unclear, though Nasdaq futures did ease from a 0.16% gain to now -0.06%.

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China exerts export controls on rare earths

[1:06 pm] Rare earth stocks are trading broadly higher, likely in response to new changes in China’s rare earth export policy. The following is a translated excerpt from an announcement published on China’s Ministry of Commerce website.

To safeguard national security and interests, and in accordance with China’s Export Control Law and Dual-Use Items Export Control Regulations, the State Council has approved the following export control measures:

• Exports to foreign military users or entities on China’s control lists will generally not be approved.

• Shipments linked to weapons, terrorism, or military purposes will also be denied.

• Exports for advanced semiconductor and AI development (e.g., 14nm chips, 256-layer memory) will be reviewed case by case.

• Humanitarian exports such as for medical emergencies or disaster relief are exempt but must be reported within 10 business days.

• Foreign exporters must apply via MOFCOM’s online system and provide compliance documentation when transferring controlled items.

Source: MOFCOM

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Symal breaks out to record highs

[12:03 pm] After a relatively lackluster debut last November and almost a year of sideways action, Symal is breaking out with conviction. The stock is up 20% in the last five sessions to fresh all-time highs of $2.17.

Symal is a founder-led, vertically integrated civil construction business that operates four core business pillars: i) contracting; ii) plant and equipment hire; iii) material sales and iv) recycling and repurposing.

Its FY25 results (25 August) highlighted:

• Revenue up 15% to $901.7 million

• Normalised NPAT up 50% to $45.7 million

• Net cash of $46.1 million

• Estimated $1.76 billion work in hand as of 30 June 2025

Symal daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Chalice on the move

[12:01 pm] Chalice Mining opened 5.7% higher, currently up 12.5% ($2.74%) to the highest level since September 2023.

This follows a 7.7% rally for palladium prices overnight, trading at the highest since June 2023.

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Another leg up for copper stocks

[11:59 am] Another day of broad gains for copper names.

The key catalyst as noted earlier: Teck cut 2025 production guidance for Quebrada Blanca (QB2) to 170,000 to 190,000 tons from 210,000 to 230,000 tons (a 19% reduction at midpoint), also lowering forecasts for 2026 to 2028 and trimming guidance at Highland Valley Copper in Canada, marking the latest supply shock in a copper market already strained by disruptions across South America and Central Africa.

A name like Sandfire Resources is now up 31% in the past month and 77% year-to-date.

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Analysts take on Transurban

[10:37 am] Transurban provided a first quarter update at its AGM on Wednesday, with numbers largely in-line with market expectations. Group traffic rose 2.7% year-on-year, with a standout performance from North America (both volume and price), offset by weakness in Sydney due to weather and ongoing construction. Here's what brokers are thinking after the update:

• Macquarie maintained Neutral, raised target from $14.18 to $14.55. US traffic and pricing growth exceeded expectations, with likely dividend upgrades from FY26, though US upside is now partly priced in.

• UBS maintained Neutral, raised target from $14.75 to $14.85. WestConnex continues to perform well despite Sydney’s lag, with limited risk from contractor claims and a steady growth pipeline.

• JPMorgan maintained Neutral, lowered target from $14.20 to $14.10. US strength supported upgrades, but Sydney traffic was hit by construction, while Melbourne posted its strongest growth in two years.

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Elders smashed, bouncing off lows

[10:32 am] Unsurprising weakness from Elders after providing some fresh numbers to the market this morning. The stock opened 4.7% lower, down as much as 13.3% in early trade. Currently bouncing off intraday lows, down 7.3%.

As the blog noted earlier: Elders has guided to FY26 underlying EBIT of $142-146 million vs. $161.7 million consensus, a 10.9% miss at the midpoint.

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Massive swing for Guzman Y Gomez

[10:31 am] Absolutely crazy price action for GYG, following a first-quarter trading update this morning. The stock opened 14.8% higher, rallied as much as 26% and currently up just 3.7%.

"The key number in the update is comp sales growth for the Australia segment of 4.0% for 1Q26. This is an improvement from the +3.7% disclosed for the first 7 weeks of the quarter," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Toner.

"We forecast GYG to deliver +4.83% comp sales growth in Australia in 1H26 (cons +5.0%). The 1Q number of 4.0% continues to track below this forecast, necessitating a significant acceleration in comp sales through 2Q26 to hit consensus forecasts."

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ASX 200 higher as miners rally

[10:27 am] The ASX 200 is up 0.33% in early trade, very strong breadth with 155 constituents (78%) trading higher. Big move from the resource sector, with the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index now up 11% since late September and on the cusp of a fresh all-time high.

Heavyweights BHP (+1.8%), Rio Tinto (+0.82%) and Fortescue (+0.57%) broadly higher, though largely thanks to Teck's copper production downgrade last night.

ASX 200 sector performance in early trade (Source: Market Index)

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Elders FY26 trading update

[9:53 am] Elders has guided to FY26 underlying EBIT of $142-146 million vs. $161.7 million consensus, a 10.9% miss at the midpoint.

The company notes that trading conditions have improved in recent months but not enough to offset the challenging conditions in the September quarter.

“Elders noted negative impacts from dry conditions to our Retail business, most pronounced in South Australia and Western Victoria. These impacts continued through April and May as drought conditions persisted," noted CEO Mark Allison.

Source: Announcement | Company page: Elders (ELD)

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Insider transaction: NWR Chairman

[9:49 am] NWR Chairman Michael Arnett sold 200,000 shares on-market, representing approximately 20% of his holdings. He beneficially owns 812,534 shares after the transaction.

Source: Announcement | Company page: NRW (NWH)

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REA issues trading update at AGM

[9:44 am] A few incremental insights from REA Group's AGM:

• National new buy listings down 8% year-on-year in the first quarter of FY26, as anticipated

• First quarter listings remain above long-term averages

• Softer second half comparables should see national FY26 listing volumes in-line with the prior year

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Netwealth 1Q26 trading update

[9:43 am] Netwealth's first-quarter FY26 trading update looks solid at first glance.

• Total FUA at 30 September 2025 up 26.6% year-on-year to $120.8 billion

• Total FUA up $8.0 billion in the September quarter ($4.1bn inflows and $3.9bn market movement)

• FUA net flows for FY26 to not differ materially from FY25

• Total operating expense growth to be in-line with FY25 (ex any impact from First Guardian)

Source: Announcement | Company page: Netwealth (NWL)

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Guzman Y Gomez 1Q26 trading update

[9:40 am] Guzman Y Gomez announced its quarterly results for the period 1 July to 30 September 2025. The key highlights include:

• Australia sales up 17.4% year-on-year to $305.5 million

• Network sales growth of 18.6% to $330.6 million (Australia plus Asia and US)

• Australian restaurants up 14.0% to 227

• Global restaurants up 15.4% to 261

The company reaffirmed the guidance issued at its FY25 results, which includes Australia segment underlying EBITDA as a percentage of network sales to expand to 5.9-6.3% in FY26 vs. 5.7% in FY25.

GYG also announced an on-market buyback of up to $100 million shares, expected to commence in the second quarter of FY26. The announcement stated:

"The buyback reflects the company’s robust balance sheet and cash generation, while preserving capacity to fund the ongoing expansion of the restaurant network."

Not sure why GYG would initiate a buyback when its stock is trading at 197x FY25 earnings.

Source: Announcement | Company page: Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

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Develop Global reports update Sulphur Springs Project

[9:28 am] Develop Global reported an updated Definitive Feasibility Study for its Sulphur Springs Zinc-Copper project in WA.

The updated DFS delivers an NPV uplift of 76% to $921 million, with average annual pre-tax cash flow of $252 million. Upfront capital requirements sit at $329 million.

“Develop now has two projects in Sulphur Springs and our Woodlawn Copper-Zinc mine in NSW which give us substantial exposure to what is set to be one of the great investment themes of a generation,” said Managing Director Bill Beament.

Source: Announcement | Company page: Develop Global (DVP)

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September FOMC minutes

[9:20 am] September FOMC minutes reveal a deeply divided committee spanning 75 bps of policy preference, with most supporting gradual cuts despite elevated inflation uncertainty.

• Mixed inflation views: some saw muted tariff effects while others flagged stalled progress toward 2%, but a majority stressed upside inflation risks, suggesting the hawkish wing is gaining influence despite delivering the 25bp cut

• Labour market concerns broadening: members noted slowing job gains and rising unemployment, with a few acknowledging conditions had been weakening longer than previously recognised, strengthening the case for continued easing

• Wide policy divergence: "almost all" backed 25bp, but a few preferred holding rates unchanged (fearing de-anchored inflation expectations) while Governor Miran dissented dovishly for 50bp

• Forward guidance soft: most judged "further cuts this year would likely be appropriate," suggesting at least one more 25 bp reduction is baseline, though "likely" rather than definitive language preserves optionality if data shifts materially

Source: FOMC Minutes

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Copper is about to get real tight

[9:15 am] In the past few weeks, we've seen three of the world's top copper mines hit by various challenges, taking approximately 1.6Mt of supply off the market (approx ~7% of global output).

• Grasberg (Freeport-McMoRan): Last month a mudflow incident killed at least two people and forced Freeport to slash production guidance for both 2025 and 2026. This is the world's second-largest copper mine.

• Kamoa-Kakula (Ivanhoe/Zijin JV): Earlier this year, this giant copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo flooded.

• Cobre Panama (First Quantum): This mine has been completely shut down since November 2023 after Panama's Supreme Court ruled the mining contract unconstitutional amid massive public protests over environmental concerns.

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Copper stocks in focus

[9:10 am] Copper names like Sandfire, Aeris Resources, 29Metals and more could get a kick this morning as the sector suffers another major supply shock.

Overnight, Teck Resources downgraded copper guidance at flagship Chilean mine for the second time in three months, hitting output through 2028 just weeks after Anglo American's mega acquisition.

Teck cut 2025 production guidance for Quebrada Blanca (QB2) to 170,000 to 190,000 tons from 210,000 to 230,000 tons (a 19% reduction at midpoint), also lowering forecasts for 2026 to 2028 and trimming guidance at Highland Valley Copper in Canada, marking the latest supply shock in a copper market already strained by disruptions across South America and Central Africa.

Copper prices remain relatively unchanged overnight, however the Global X Copper Miners ETF rallied 3.9% to fresh all-time highs.

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xAI to raise $20 billion

[9:05 am] Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI is set to raise $20 billion, split into ~$7.5 billion equity and up to $12.5 billion debt via a special purpose vehicle that will purchase Nvidia processors and rent them back to xAI for five years. The capital will fund xAI's Colossus 2 data center in Memphis as the company burns through $1 billion per month despite raising ~$10 billion earlier in 2025.

Nvidia plans to invest up to $2 billion in the equity portion, continuing its strategy of financing its customers to accelerate its own chip sales.

CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC his only regret is he "didn't give [Musk] more money," adding "almost everything that Elon's part of, you really want to be part of as well".

Source: Bloomberg

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Block brings Bitcoin payments for US merchants

[9:03 am] Block subsidiary Square has launched fully integrated Bitcoin payments and Bitcoin conversions (automatically convert up to 50% of daily card sales into Bitcoin).

Bitcoin Conversions beta users have already accumulated 142 bitcoin as of October 1, 2025 since the 2024 pilot launch, demonstrating material uptake among small businesses using the tool as a long term savings diversification strategy alongside traditional banking functions like payroll and inventory management.

Cryptocurrency payment users in the US expected to grow 82% between 2024 and 2026, with Square positioning itself to capture this shift by offering near instantaneous settlement and significantly lower transaction rates versus traditional card processing, helping sellers "keep more of every sale" while maintaining optionality to hold earnings in bitcoin or US dollars.

NYSE-listed Block shares finished the overnight session up 2.6%.

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US government shutdown enters 8th day

[8:56 am] The two-week shutdown has moved from symbolic to economically damaging, with over 250,000 federal workers missed paychecks this week with another 2 million at risk if it extends into week three, while unpaid air traffic controllers calling in sick are causing flight delays and the DC regional economy is sliding toward recession from lost incomes.

Here are some of the latest highlights from Bloomberg:

• Trump is exploring unprecedented steps that would transform a temporary funding lapse into permanent damage. A White House legal memo challenges four decades of precedent and a 2019 law by arguing back pay isn't guaranteed (Trump says some workers "don't deserve to be taken care of"), plus potential mass layoffs and federal grant cancellations are under consideration

• Economic toll is quantifiable and accelerating, with economists estimating each shutdown week costs approximately 0.1 percentage point of GDP, while IRS has furloughed nearly half its workforce and vendor invoices are piling up across agencies, creating cascading payment disruptions through the economy

• Meanwhile, the 535 members of Congress continue receiving paychecks under the 27th Amendment, insulating them from personal financial consequences of their inaction, a political optics problem as millions face unpaid bills and job uncertainty

Source: Bloomberg

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Lynas signs MoU to establish US rare earth supply chain

[8:46 am] Lynas has signed an MoU with Noveon Magnetics (the only operational US sintered rare earth magnet manufacturer) to to establish an end-to-end domestic US rare earth magnet supply chain.

The partnership covers the full value chain from separated rare earth oxides through metal/alloy production to finished high-performance magnets for defense, automotive, and industrial applications.

This responds directly to ongoing supply chain disruptions and urgent end-user demand, with both companies prioritising magnets for national defence systems and critical infrastructure alongside commercial electrification/automation.

The MoU is non-binding pending definitive agreements, but both companies are committed to working with US policymakers and agencies to ensure the supply chain is "protected, scalable, and aligned with national interests".

Source: Announcement | Company page: Lynas (LYC)

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S&P 500 at all-time highs

[8:41 am] The S&P 500 cruised to another fresh all-time high overnight. What a slick uptrend, with shallow pullbacks of no more than 3%.

S&P 500 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:35 am] ASX 200 futures are up 38pts (+0.38%) as of 8:30 am AEDT. The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher, though the Dow finished flat amid a tech and growth-led session

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs as the market shrugged off recent AI bubble concerns, with notable gains from AMD (+11.3%), Broadcom (+2.7%) and Nvidia (+2.2%)

• Gold prices rallied through US$4,000 with ease, while silver prices are on the verge of cracking US$50, copper mines also in focus after another major supply shock

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.