Evening Wrap: ASX 200 up on solid gains in CBA, WES, and XRO - it's starting to feel a lot like a bull market again!

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+1.3%) could be the most loved stock on the ASX by investors, and the most hated by brokers and fund managers. It keeps going up (much to the joy of everyday investors), and brokers and fund managers keep calling it a sell.

It's going to annoy those brokers and fund managers even more today, as it closed at a record high after reporting better than expected March quarter results.

Apart from CBA's heroics, it was another steady day of gains for Aussie stocks today...but that's only true at the benchmark level. Scratch a little deeper, and there was a tinge of a bearish undertone! 🤔

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Gold in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 17.9 points higher at 8,297.5, 0.49% from its session low and just 0.07% from its high. But, and it’s a big BUT! In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by a miserable 88 to 190 – that’s worse than 2:1!

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) could be the most loved stock on the ASX by investors, and the most hated by brokers and fund managers. It keeps going up (much to the joy of everyday investors), and the brokers and fund managers keep calling it a sell / overvalued.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) (click here for full size image)

CBA is going to annoy analysts at the big brokers and fund managers even more today, as it closed at a record high price of $169.74, up 1.3%. The reason? I could offer you the excuse, which let's face, it is the one and only true reason: Demand for CBA shares exceeded its supply – but I better also offer the reason droned in every other market wrap you'll read – stronger than expected March quarter results.

(Permit me to proudly add here that CBA is the most featured (i.e., highest conviction) stock in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends lists – with 51 appearances since Scans started 12 months ago – 52 if you count tomorrow's edition 💪!)

Elsewhere today, Information Technology (XIJ) (+2.1%) picked up where it left off yesterday, and indeed all week, as it continued to ride the Nasdaq recovery rocket. Today, accounting software developer Xero (XRO) (+4.7%) led the charge, but Appen (APX) (+4.7%), and Audinate (AD8) (+3.4%) weren't far behind.

Financials (XFJ) (+1.1%), bolstered by that CBA result, also did well, as did Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (1.0%) which largely tracked major constituent Wesfarmers (WES) (+2.2%) rise.

There were plenty of stragglers today, though, as market yields rose and put a dent in yield sensitive sectors like Real Estate (XPJ) (-1.3%), and a continued fall in the gold price added more salt to the wounds of the Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-2.5). I have detailed technical analysis for you on the gold price in ChartWatch below.

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

Double green back on the screen 🟩🟩! (click here for full size image)

Super quick here, because, well nothing has really changed since our last update!

There’s another demand-side showing – albeit a more modest one than the recent heroics. The rest of the technicals for the Comp are impeccable.

Oh, actually, something did just change – what am I thinking – we have a green long term uptrend ribbon!!! 🤯

In combination with our also-green short term uptrend ribbon, we are back to double-green – the first time since 21-Feb. There’s something very reassuring about seeing double-green on my trend ribbons.

Apart from that, you gotta think there’s at least some slowing on upside momentum here, if only due to the modesty of Wednesday’s candle. Perhaps the supply I’m expecting to kick in…um…any minute now…is beginning to manifest?

You know the drill here: Candles. Watch. Like a hawk 👀

• ⬛ bodies + ⬆️ pointing shadows = 👎!

• ⬜ bodies + ⬇️ pointing shadows = 👍!

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Yawwwwnnnn...🥱 (click here for full size image)

Solid enough today, and in keeping with everything we would expect to happen in a short and long term demand-side controlled environment.

Also, it was a better showing compared to US indices overnight. Somewhat encouraging!

But, as mentioned above, the breadth was terrible today. It’s hard to put too much weight on today’s downward pointing shadow, white body, and high close (all credible demand-side indicators) when roughly two stocks were down for every one that was up.

Despite this, I can’t see reason not to stay the course here. Trends, price action, and candles all look solid to me ✅✅✅. I’d need to see some pretty convincing examples of these going the other way to change my mind.

8353-8445 is supply.

8138-long term uptrend ribbon is demand.

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Gold is losing its shine...📉 (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered gold was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 6 May, we also covered the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Sub-Index (XGD) on 9 May.

In both updates, and really going back to as early as April 23, the message has been clear: You might want to consider a reduced exposure to gold and ASX gold stocks (as in the words “Species ending event” 🦕🌠 were used!).

The chart above shows gold’s short term trend has transitioned from uptrend / demand-side control, to equilibrium / neutrality, and now to downtrend / supply-side control. It did this by:

• Printing lower peaks (3448.2 vs 3509.9)

• A growing predominance of supply-side candles (i.e., those with black bodies and or upward pointing shadows)

• The break of the 3209.4 trough – putting the price action into falling peaks and falling troughs

• The short term trend ribbon changing colour to amber

• The price closing below the short term trend ribbon (i.e., it’s no longer acting as a zone of dynamic demand)

Gold is not unique in transitioning from up to downtrend in this way – it happens the vast, vast majority of the time (on occasion a step or two might be missed!).

As we have also said in recent updates, the long term uptrend remains intact. The long term uptrend itself is now the most likely next stop for the short term downtrend – presently kicking in around 2970. I note the confluence of a few static points of demand/supply around the 3000 level – plus the fact it is a significant round number – will add to the potential demand-side response there.

In the meantime, I see no reason to fight the short term downtrend.

Economy

Today

• AUS Employment Change & Unemployment Rate April

• Change: 89,000 vs +20,900 forecast and +36,400 in March (revised higher from +32,200)

• Full time / Part time: +59,500 FT / +29,500 PT

• Unemployment rate: 4.1% as forecast, unchanged from March

• Participation rate: 67.1% vs 66.8% in March

• Comment / Implications: Well above expectations, strong growth in FTE and PTE shows extremely resilient local jobs market. If not for jump in participation rate, unemployment rate would have dipped to 3.9-4.0%. RBA will certainly weigh this data when deciding if or not to cut by 0.25% on Tuesday. Implied yield curve is showing expectations shifting to July for next cut.

Later this week

Thursday

• 22:30 USA Core PPI m/m April (+0.3% m/m forecast vs -0.1% m/m in March)

• 22:30 USA Retail Sales m/m April (flat m/m forecast vs +1.4% m/m in March)

• 22:40 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks

Friday

• 00:00 USA Building Permits & Housing Starts April

  • Permits: 1.45 million forecast vs 1.48 million in March

  • Starts: 1.37 million forecast vs 1.32 million in March

Saturday

• 00:00 USA Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment May (53.1 forecast vs 52.2 in April)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +170.8% Peak Rare Earths (PEK) – Reinstatement to Quotation and Scheme and Entitlement Offer Presentation.

• +14.3% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news since 13 May Sale of Non-Core Asset, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +12.8% Brightstar Resources (BTR) – May Production Update - Processing Underway, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.8% Graincorp (GNC) – Half Year Accounts and GrainCorp 1H25 results and updated earnings guidance.

• +8.2% Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) – Court approves convening of scheme meeting, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +7.1% Immutep (IMM) – High Response Rates achieved in Lung Cancer in INSIGHT-003.

• +6.5% Syrah Resources (SYR) – Balama production targeted by end of June 2025 quarter, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.7% Insurance Australia Group (IAG) – IAG enters strategic alliance with RACWA, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.0% Genusplus Group (GNP) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.7% Xero (XRO) – FY25 Annual Results Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.7% Appen (APX) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +3.4% Audinate Group (AD8) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +3.3% Alcoa Corporation (AAI) – No news 🤔.

• +3.1% Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +2.8% Superloop (SLC) – Achievement of Milestone 3 of the Origin Contract, retained at buy by Citi and at overweight by Jarden (see broker Moves section for details), general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +2.2% Wesfarmers (WES) – No news, general strength across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -14.3% Koonenberry Gold (KNB) – KNB resolves matters with Requisitioning Shareholders.

• -8.3% NRW (NWH) – NRW Response to Proposed SA Govt Whyalla Legislation, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -7.7% Actinogen Medical (ACW) – ACW Science Forum today - Preparing for commercialization, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -6.5% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today.

• -6.5% Aurelia Metals (AMI) – No news, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today.

• -6.4% Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) – No news, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs 🔎📉

• -6.0% Resolute Mining (RSG) – Chairman's AGM Address, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today.

• -5.6% Novonix (NVX) – No news, repelled perfectly from long term downtrend ribbon! 🔎📉

• -5.2% Bapcor (BAP) – No news 🤔.

• -5.2% Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) – Sam Fischer to succeed Tim Ford as CEO of TWE, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.1% Bellevue Gold (BGL) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

Aussie Broadband (ABB)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.80

Adriatic Metals (ADT)

• Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $4.50 from $5.30

Ampol (ALD)

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $31.80 from $30.80

Alkane Resources (ALK)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.400

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $71.00 from $74.00

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $73.70 from $74.60

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $74.00 from $77.00

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $72.00 from $80.00

• Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $70.00 from $78.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $73.20

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $76.00 from $84.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $72.40 from $74.50

Amcor (AMC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $18.00 from $19.00

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.150

Brickworks (BKW)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.00

Bubs Australia (BUB)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.200

Catapult Group International (CAT)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.00

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $100.00

• Retained at underperform at CLSA; Price Target: $143.00 from $142.00

• Retained at sell at Jarden; Price Target: $110.00

• Retained at sell at Jefferies; Price Target: $110.00

• Retained at underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $117.00 from $112.00

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $105.00

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $128.00

• Retained at reduce at Morgans; Price Target: $97.40 from $101.00

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $105.00

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $115.00

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.75

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.03

Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.51

Core Lithium (CXO)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at Jarden; Price Target: $0.100 from $0.070

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.05

Domain Australia (DHG)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.43

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.75

EBR Systems (EBR)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.23 from $2.69

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.10

Firefly Metals (FFM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.950

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.75

Graincorp (GNC)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $9.75

Gold Road Resources (GOR)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.05

Gentrack Group (GTK)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: NZ$11.75 from NZ$7.50

GWA Group (GWA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.15

Homeco Daily Needs Reit (HDN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.140

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.20 from $4.40

Judo Capital (JDO)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.550 from $1.600

James Hardie Industries (JHX)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $40.20

Lindsay Australia (LAU)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.090 from $1.020

Minerals 260 (MI6)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.280

Nine Entertainment (NEC)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $1.800 from $1.850

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $20.85

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $21.50

OOH!Media (OML)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $1.800

Pantoro (PNR)

• Retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.30

Prospect Resources (PSC)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.450 from $0.400

Reece (REH)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.40

Region Group (RGN)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.03

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.57

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.55

SGH (SGH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $56.10

Superloop (SLC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.65

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $2.60

Santana Minerals (SMI)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.300

Southern Cross Gold (SX2)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.80

Technology One (TNE)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $31.00 from $27.90

Tuas (TUA)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.10

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.30

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $156.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $185.00

Scans