ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 15th May
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to snap a six-day win streak after a weak lead from Wall Street. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, May 15. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 extends win streak to seven
[4:15 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 finished 17.9 pts higher (+0.22%), marking a relatively rare seven day win streak.
Since 2000, the ASX 200 has logged 41 instances of seven-day-or-longer winning streaks, which have delivered an average gain of 3.52%. This win streak has been rather slow and steady, up just 1.79% over the last seven sessions.
Despite the Index ticking higher, breadth was relatively weak, with 119 of S&P/ASX 200 constituents finishing lower.
For detailed commentary and analysis - read today's Evening Wrap.
Gold stocks continue to slide
[2:00 pm] Gold stocks are broadly lower on Thursday after spot prices closed 2.2% lower overnight and down a further 0.8% in the current session to US$3,150 an ounce.
Here's how S&P/ASX 200 gold names are performing:
Ticker | Company | Price | 1 Day | 1 Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
NEM | Newmont Corporation | $74.73 | -3.98% | -10.37% |
OBM | Ora Banda Mining | $0.95 | -3.37% | -12.61% |
VAU | Vault Minerals | $0.42 | -3.02% | -1.83% |
WGX | Westgold Resources | $2.57 | -2.84% | -14.11% |
WAF | West African Resources | $2.23 | -2.84% | -12.86% |
EMR | Emerald Resources | $4.10 | -2.27% | -11.44% |
PRU | Perseus Mining | $3.27 | -1.66% | -8.78% |
GMD | Genesis Minerals | $3.74 | -1.58% | -14.22% |
NST | Northern Star Resources | $18.04 | -1.56% | -9.56% |
RRL | Regis Resources | $4.30 | -1.26% | -10.59% |
CMM | Capricorn Metals Ltd | $8.47 | -1.05% | -11.35% |
RMS | Ramelius Resources | $2.47 | -1.00% | -11.86% |
GOR | Gold Road Resources | $3.22 | -0.62% | -11.28% |
SPR | Spartan Resources | $1.94 | -0.51% | -14.30% |
EVN | Evolution Mining | $7.74 | -0.32% | -10.52% |
Stocks moving on unusual volume
[1:30 pm] These are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks experiencing unusual volume, as a % of their 20-day average volumes.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | R-Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SMR | Stanmore Resources | 2.03% | $2.01 | 295% |
MSB | Mesoblast | 1.12% | $1.80 | 191% |
TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | -5.26% | $8.64 | 190% |
IFL | Insignia Financial | 0.74% | $3.40 | 159% |
GPT | Gpt Group | -1.07% | $4.64 | 133% |
LLC | Lendlease Group | 0.82% | $5.53 | 132% |
XRO | Xero | 4.25% | $181.25 | 129% |
Top gainers and losers at noon
[12:40 pm] Here are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks making the biggest gains and declines as at 12:40 pm.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | 5.46% | $8.88 |
AAI | Alcoa Corporation | 3.80% | $45.66 |
XRO | Xero | 3.22% | $179.45 |
MCY | Mercury Nz | 3.15% | $5.57 |
WES | Wesfarmers | 2.99% | $83.68 |
MIN | Mineral Resources | 2.05% | $26.58 |
FPH | Fisher & Paykel | 1.81% | $33.76 |
BOE | Boss Energy Ltd | 1.76% | $4.05 |
AUB | Aub Group | 1.71% | $34.48 |
SUN | Suncorp Group | 1.70% | $20.63 |
APA | Apa Group | 1.59% | $8.29 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | -5.15% | $8.65 |
LTR | Liontown Resources | -4.46% | $0.75 |
VAU | Vault Minerals | -4.19% | $0.41 |
LNW | Light & Wonder | -4.03% | $131.48 |
BAP | Bapcor | -3.53% | $5.19 |
NEM | Newmont Corporation | -3.49% | $75.11 |
NWL | Netwealth Group | -3.40% | $30.38 |
REH | Reece | -3.10% | $16.44 |
OBM | Ora Banda Mining Ltd | -3.06% | $0.95 |
WAF | West African Resources | -3.06% | $2.22 |
Unemployment rate steady at 4.1% in April
[11:30 am] Australia's unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in April, in-line with market expectations.
Sean Crick, ABS head of labour statistics, said: "With employment increasing by 89,000 people and the number of unemployed increasing by 6,000 people, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1 per cent for April."
The 89,000 figure was well-above market expectations of 20,000. The rise in employment was larger for females, up 65,000 (0.9 per cent), while male employment was up 24,000 (0.3 per cent), noted the ABS.
Graincorp 1H25 earnings call highlights
[11:15 am] Here are some of the key takeaways from Graincorp's 1H25 earnings call. The stock is currently trading 7% higher after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings.
Transformation program: Release 2 of the transformation program mirrors Release 1, with an estimated cost of $80m and incorporates de-risking strategies for smoother execution.
East Tamaki closure: Closure costs in 1H25 remained modest, following $10m in expenses for FY24.
Canada JV: Facing macroeconomic challenges; a strategic review is underway with the JV partner to address performance issues.
Crush margins: Pressured by dry conditions and oversupply in global markets, with recovery timing uncertain.
Flooding impact: Improved soil moisture, but crop yield outcomes remain uncertain due to inconsistent weather conditions.
Current themes: i) Increased global grain and oilseed production continues to pressure margins; ii) Expanded market access helps mitigate risks from geopolitical tensions and iii) Investments in infrastructure have enhanced logistics and processing capabilities.
Xero recovers from early dip
[10:40 am] Xero shares are up 3% after an initial fall of 2.5% in early trade. Today's FY25 result contained a few moving pieces, but bullish sentiment seems to have taken hold.
Xero's FY25 net profit rose 30% to $227.8 million but fell short of market expectations by approximately 6.8%, due to elevated marketing, sales, and administrative costs.
Despite this, key operational metrics were robust: revenue met expectations, subscriber growth slightly underperformed, average revenue per user exceeded forecasts by 6.3%, and average monthly churn remained low at 1.03%.
The net profit miss clearly drove some selling in early trade, however, the market appears to be moving on the pricing strength, sound subscriber growth and cash flow beats.
Small caps making moves
[10:30 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers as at 10:30 am.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
MYX | Mayne Pharma Group | 11.52% | $6.39 |
BTR | Brightstar Resources | 10.09% | $0.60 |
APX | Appen | 7.40% | $1.26 |
IMM | Immutep | 7.14% | $0.30 |
MEI | Meteoric Resources | 6.25% | $0.10 |
NGI | Navigator Global Investments | 6.06% | $1.75 |
TBN | Tamboran Resources Corporation | 5.88% | $0.18 |
HGH | Heartland Group Holdings | 5.52% | $0.77 |
TRA | Turners Automotive Group | 5.51% | $5.17 |
QAL | Qualitas | 4.98% | $2.74 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
STK | Strickland Metals | -8.33% | $0.11 |
AVR | Anteris Technologies | -5.93% | $6.50 |
TTT | Titomic | -5.45% | $0.26 |
ONE | Oneview Healthcare | -5.26% | $0.27 |
SMI | Santana Minerals | -4.63% | $0.52 |
PLL | Piedmont Lithium | -4.55% | $0.11 |
AUC | Ausgold | -4.51% | $0.64 |
BBT | Betr Entertainment | -4.48% | $0.32 |
BC8 | Black Cat Syndicate | -4.09% | $0.82 |
KCN | Kingsgate | -3.98% | $1.93 |
Top gainers and losers at open
[10:25 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers as at 10:25 am.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
AAI | Alcoa Corporation | 3.71% | $45.62 |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | 3.56% | $8.72 |
GYG | Guzman Y Gomez | 3.04% | $32.89 |
360 | Life360 | 2.82% | $30.59 |
BOE | Boss Energy | 2.01% | $4.06 |
MSB | Mesoblast | 1.97% | $1.82 |
LLC | Lendlease Group | 1.82% | $5.58 |
MIN | Mineral Resources | 1.77% | $26.50 |
GDG | Generation Development Group | 1.63% | $4.98 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | -5.98% | $8.58 |
LNW | Light & Wonder | -3.99% | $131.53 |
NEM | Newmont Corporation | -3.07% | $75.44 |
VAU | Vault Minerals | -3.02% | $0.42 |
MCY | Mercury Nz | -2.88% | $5.40 |
CEN | Contact Energy | -2.72% | $8.58 |
RMS | Ramelius Resources | -2.41% | $2.43 |
STO | Santos | -2.10% | $6.29 |
OBM | Ora Banda Mining Ltd | -2.04% | $0.96 |
PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | -2.04% | $20.17 |
Navigator Global rallies strong FY25 guidance
[10:15 am] Navigator Global Investments shares rallied 7% in early trade after the company guided to FY25 adjusted EBITDA of US$106-110 million, up 17-22% year-on-year. This marks an 11% beat against consensus expectations of US$97 million.
“After another year of strong performance and profit distributions from NGI’s partner firms, as well as strong investment performance from Lighthouse, NGI has materially upgraded our expectations for FY25 earnings," said Chief Executive Stephen Darke.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Navigator Global
NRW lifts impairment provision
[9:50 am] NRW Holdings faces a potential $113.3 million impairment provision in FY25 due to proposed South Australian legislation.
On May 13, 2025, the South Australian Premier announced the drafting of the Whyalla Steel Works Amendment Bill 2025.
The proposed bill would transfer ownership of infrastructure, constructed and funded by Whyalla Ports at the Port of Whyalla, to OneSteel. It declares this personal property void, deeming it part of the land and vesting ownership to OneSteel without any mention of compensation to Whyalla Ports.
NRW Holdings’ subsidiary, Golding, is owed approximately $113.3 million under a Master Service Agreement (MSA) for work completed prior to the appointment of KordaMentha as Administrator of OneSteel on February 19, 2025.
NRW, through Golding, is actively pursuing all available recovery options and reserves its full legal rights in response to this development.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: NRW Holdings (NWH)
Treasury Wine CEO steps down
[9:45 am] Treasury Wine Estates CEO Tim Ford is stepping down after a 14-year career with the company and five years as chief executive.
Sam Fischer will succeed Mr Ford as CEO from 27 October 2025. Mr Fischer is the current CEO of Lion (owned by Kirin Group), an alcohol beverage industry leader whose portfolio spans beer, wine, spirits and ready to drink beverages.
Its worth noting that Mr Ford beneficially owns approximately 925,000 Treasury Wine shares (approx $8.4m worth at current prices).
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)
Delta Lithium to spin out gold assets
[9:40 am] Delta Lithium confirmed plans to spin out its Mt Ida gold assets into a new company – Ballard Mining.
A recent presentation highlighted the following for Mt Ida's gold assets:
Mt Ida is one of the very few, large +1Moz, high-grade undeveloped gold projects in WA
High-grade lode Gold in a Proven Gold District 10.3Mt @ 3.3g/t Au for 1,102,000 oz
Includes the high-grade Baldock Deposit 7Mt @ 4.1g/t Au for 930,000 oz
Recent drilling extended JORC resources 46% with regional targets delivering 3 new resources
Existing shareholders are expected to receive one Ballard share for every 11.25 shares in Delta lithium via an in-specie distribution.
The company plans to launch a $25-30 million IPO, with Delta shareholders able to participate in a priority offer.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Delta Lithium (DLI)
Graincorp 1H25 tops estimates, declares special dividend
[9:30 am] Graincorp reported a broadly better-than-expected 1H25 result and narrowed its FY25 guidance (slightly higher compared to prior ranges). Here are the key highlights:
Underlying EBITDA up 23% to $201.7m vs. $172m consensus (17.2% beat)
Underlying NPAT up 21% to $58.1m vs. $57.6m consensus (0.8% beat)
Interim dividend unch at 24 cents per share plus special dividend of 10 cents per share
Share buyback increased to a maximum $75m vs. prior $50m
FY25 underlying NPAT guidance of $65-95m vs. prior $60-95m (3.2% upgrade at the midpoint)
FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $285-325m vs. prior $270-320m (3.3% upgrade at the midpoint)
A few key comments from CEO Robert Spurway:
“GrainCorp delivered a solid half-year result, capitalising on a large east coast harvest against the backdrop of a competitive global margin environment."
“Strong volumes in Queensland and Northern NSW underpinned this result, offsetting the impact of below average conditions in Victoria and Southern NSW.“
"Our first half performance demonstrates the resilience of our business and contributes to the upgrade of FY25 earnings guidance.”
“Summer rainfall has built a healthy soil moisture profile in Queensland and Northern NSW once again, supporting a strong planting window and creating the potential for an above-average crop."
To add some perspective, Graincorp previously (mid-Feb 2025) reported weaker-than-expected EBITDA and NPAT guidance, driven by strong offshore grain supply and weaker demand-compressing margins. However, management announced the $50 million buyback due to balance sheet strength.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Graincorp (GNC)
Fortescue doubles down on green iron and hydrogen
[9:20 am • The Australian] Fortescue CEO Dino Otranto told The Australian that the company is shifting its focus from proton exchange membrane electrolyser technology, which it deems unsuitable, to advancing green iron production in the Pilbara using hydrogen-based solutions.
Otranto emphasised that Fortescue is now solely dedicated to this green iron initiative, noting that shareholders support the move, seeing a clearer path to commercial viability for both its energy and metals businesses.
Source: The Australian
Orora reaffirms FY25 guidance
[9:15 am] Orora reaffirmed its 2H25 EBIT to be flat year-on-year. The company reported that cans volume growth has returned to long-term run rates of about 4% year-to-date in 2H25, while modest volume growth at Saverglass is being offset by a product mix favoring premium wine and champagne.
Orora also forecasts FY25 capex at $285–295m and depreciation & amortisation at A$155–165m. Interestingly, Macquarie (Mar-25) had forecasted FY25 capex of $314m.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Orora (ORA)
Xero misses FY25 profit estimates
[9:10 am] Xero reported a mostly weaker-than-expected set of numbers for FY25 (for the year ended 31 March 2025). Here are the highlights (all figures in NZD):
Operating revenue up 23% to $2.1bn, in-line with consensus
Subscribers up 6% to 4.41m vs. 4.47m consensus (1.3% miss)
Average revenue per user up 15% to $45.08 vs.$42.38 consensus (6.3% beat)
EBITDA up 28% to $638.46m vs. $668.3m consensus (4.4% miss)
Net profit after tax up 30% to $227.8m vs. $244.5m consensus (6.8% miss)
Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenue to be around 71.5% in FY26
Citi analysts expected EBITDA margins of 31.0% vs. the reported 30.4% (60 bp miss).
Overall, it appears that Xero managed to report an in-line top line result, supported by strong ARPU growth. However, the earnings miss suggests some higher-than-expected costs or product mix changes. The earnings miss and above consensus operating expense guidance for FY26 could place some downward pressure on the stock today.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Xero (XRO)
Broker Ratings
[8:45 am] A decent set of notes so far. Aristocrat price targets cut (but still buy-rated) as expected.
Aristocrat Leisure retained Buy; target cut to $71 from $74 (CITI)
Aristocrat Leisure retained Outperform; target cut to $70 from $75 (MQG)
Catapult Group downgraded to Hold from Buy; target up to $4.40 from $4.00 (BP)
Iluka upgraded to Buy/High Risk from Neutral; target up to $5.20 from $4.40 (CITI)
Judo Capital upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target down to $1.55 from $1.60 (CITI)
Technology One retained Neutral; target up to $31 from $27.9 (MQG)
Top stories from Livewire
Is now the time to consider currency hedging? | The Australian dollar's fall to ~65 cents has boosted unhedged international equity returns for local investors, with S&P 500 ETFs yielding 14.3% annually versus 12.5% for U.S. investors. Experts cite inflation, commodities, and sentiment as drivers, recommending hedging for income assets but not growth ones. A 50/50 hedged-unhedged approach may balance risks without frequent adjustments.
Warren Buffett’s remarkable investing life – in charts | Warren Buffett, retiring as Berkshire Hathaway's CEO, achieved a 5.5 million percent return over 60 years through investments like National Indemnity and Apple, far outpacing the S&P 500, though missteps like Dexter Shoe reveal his fallibility. His successor Greg Abel inherits a large cash pile, while Buffett defines true success as earning love, not just wealth.
Iron ore strength hiding in plain sight | Iron ore prices held firm at US$95-$100 per tonne despite market turmoil, signaling China's economic resilience and driving a 28% gain in a recommended stock. Australia's lower-grade iron ore could support higher prices long-term as steelmakers favor cleaner, high-grade ore from Canada and Brazil.
2 ideas in 200 words | Iluka Resources, with a $1.8bn market cap, is undervalued given its $1bn inventory and $400m Deterra stake, with transformational assets like Balranald and Eneabba rare earths refinery poised for growth despite pricing skepticism. IPH Limited faces soft FY25 results due to Canadian patent office tech issues but is strategically focusing on higher-margin international work, trading near a 7-year low with a strong FY26 outlook.
What's driving stocks?
[8:40 am] It was a relatively uneventful overnight session, with no major directional drivers.
S&P 500 still slightly positive year-to-date and up more than 18% from its early April low
No major tariff/trade developments, though the White House hinted another deal could be announced when Trump returns from his overseas trip
US 10-year yield continues to climb, now trading above the key 4.5% level – which could place downward pressure on equities
Despite the cooler-than-expected US CPI print on Wednesday, markets are now pricing in less than 50 bps of easing this year
Good morning!
[8:35 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are pointing to a 36 pt fall (-0.43%) after a relatively weak lead from Wall Street, where megacap tech stocks cushioned broad-based weakness.
If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.
