The S&P/ASX 200 closed 46.7 points higher, up 0.55%.
Aussie stocks tipped a new record high today as investors waded back into the ASX on hopes interest rate cuts will come sooner than thought following yesterday's big inflation beat.
Winners came from sectors exposed to consumers and mortgage holders, like Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Financials. There were few underperformers, mainly in the Gold sector.
Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Uranium and Iron Ore in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Thu 30 Jan 25, 5:15pm (AEDT)
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The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 46.7 points higher at 8,493.7, 0.59% from its session low and 0.29% from its high. Despite the solid gain in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers only narrowly beat decliners by 147 to 129.
1.2 points and 1.5 points. The two most interesting numbers from today’s record breaking day of trading on the ASX.
1.2 points is how much today’s high edged out the previous all time high on the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) of 8514.5 (i.e., the new XJO all time high now stands at 8515.7).
1.5 points is how much below the XJO’s previous record high close of 8495.2 we finished.
The similarities between the last time we were here and this time are substantial – nearly identical candles as per the XJO chart below. Looking at what happened next after that 3 December peak – let’s hope that’s where the similarities will end! 🙏
The reason for the revisiting of all time highs is the opposite of the reason for the demise from them last time. Interest rates. This time, at least locally, the feeling is interest rate relief is on the way following yesterday's better than expected CPI data.
Compare this with December's withering rise in long term risk-free market yields that hobbled investors appetite for risky assets like stocks...How quick things change in the markets!
The table and graph below show how local interest rate expectations have changed through January – which is likely to go down as a very solid month of gains for the XJO. I picked the first day of the month, last week, yesterday, and today to compare the data for the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures Implied Yield Curve ("the curve").
The curve leverages market pricing of short term interest rate futures to infer the market's view of where the RBA's Official Cash Rate ("OCR") will be at the end of each month going forward. I've gone out 6 months.
| Jan-25 | Feb-25 | Mar-25 | Apr-25 | May-25 | Jun-25 |
3-Jan | 4.34% | 4.28% | 4.16% | 4.00% | 3.93% | 3.83% |
22-Jan | 4.34% | 4.27% | 4.16% | 4.06% | 4.01% | 3.90% |
28-Jan | 4.34% | 4.27% | 4.14% | 4.04% | 3.97% | 3.84% |
29-Jan | 4.34% | 4.26% | 4.11% | 4.00% | 3.92% | 3.79% |
What we can see here is how expectations for the OCR have pared back through the month, albeit gradually over the course of the month, and in a more pronounced fashion over the last week. Basically, markets now expect a 100% chance of the first 0.25% rate cut to 4.10% in April (there's a RBA meeting on Mar-31 - Apr-1).
This is at odds with what you might have read about in the papers over the last 24-hours that one is due next month in February. Markets imply just a 36% probability of that occurring.
Looking further out, markets believe that there's a 100% chance of a second 0.25% cut to 3.85% by the end of June (and a 72% chance of this by the end of May).
Turning our attention back to today's trade, the main themes were:
The continued unwinding of the DeepSeek sell off, so we saw gains in Energy (XEJ) (+1.2%) – particularly in uranium stocks
A rising iron ore price driving gains in local iron ore producers and helping Resources (XJR) (+0.65%) to a tidy gain
The promise of lower local official rates / hopes of mortgage relief/cost of living pressures driving gains in consumer sectors like Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.1%) and Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.95%), and Financials (XFJ) (+0.66%).
There were few laggards, mainly in the Gold (XGD) (-0.24%) sub-index.
The last time we covered uranium was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 8 January.
It’s been a while since we last covered this one, and iron ore below, and given the strong performance of both sectors in trading today – I felt it timely for a review.
In the last update, we were tracking yet another countertrend rally (i.e., a bounce within the broader short and long term downtrend environment) – yet another up-blip triggered by seemingly bullish news with respect to near-term uranium supply.
Each time Kazatomprom or Cameco (the world’s two largest producers) announce even a hint of a production issue – the uranium price pops back up…and then rolls over again in line with the trends.
That last blip didn’t break the mould. It faded quickly and a new low in this bear cycle was made (68.70).
The realignment with the short and long term downtrend was aided by some potentially bearish news – the prospect that DeepSeek and other new and developing AI technologies may not be as energy intensive as originally thought.
Less demand for energy equals less demand for uranium.
The uranium price is again up-blipping – as markets back away from assuming the most dire of the possible outcomes from the DeepSeek news.
So here we are again, up-blipping in well-established short and long term downtrends.
I think you already know my views here. Because my views aren’t really my views. I just follow the trends – always – and the trends remain down.
Major demand is expected at the June-September 2023 base pattern high of 62.05. Major supply is expected at 74.60-75.55, but really, all the way back up…
ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 8 January was also the last time we covered iron ore.
In that update, we were tracking similar down-down on the short and long term trends – albeit within a well defined trading range between 87.25-88.05 (lower bound) and 112.50-113.05 (upper bound).
Unlike uranium, the iron ore price has managed to steady, and even push into a fledgling short term uptrend. The long term trend has neutralised – but it’s not like the downtrend prior was cascading!
It’s still pretty much sideways here, but the price action (rising peaks and rising troughs) and candles (predominance of demand-side candles = white-bodied and or downward pointing shadows) indicates a return to demand-side control.
That control will be tested at the approaching 106.85-107.85 zone of supply – where the last promising rally almost identical to this one flittered out.
I think there’s better then even chance we’ll give 106.85-107.85 a good shake, and potentially even crack it. Should this occur, the upside will be far more strongly capped at the real zone of supply in the near term – 112.50-113.05.
You know my hunch is wrong if candles turn supply-side (i.e., black bodied and or upward pointing shadows) and we start to print falling peaks, and subsequently, falling troughs.
Today
There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today
Friday
00:15 EUR European Central Bank (ECB) Main Financing Rate (+2.90% forecast vs +3.15% previous)
00:30 USA Advance GDP December Quarter (+2.7% p.a. forecast vs +3.1% p.a. in September Quarter)
Saturday
00:30 USA Core PCE Price Index December (+0.2% m/m and +2.5% p.a. forecast vs +0.1% m/m and +2.4% p.a. in November)
+7.7% Karoon Energy (KAR) - 2024 Fourth Quarter Report and Additional US$75m buyback
+6.7% Lotus Resources (LOT) - Quarterly Activities and Cash Flow Reports - December 2024
+6.4% Emerald Resources (EMR) - Continued positive response to 28-Jan Emerald Continues Exploration Success, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends 🔎📈
+5.8% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - No news, second day of "DeepSeek probably not so bad" relief rally…🤦
+5.4% Aurelia Metals (AMI) - No news, some positive broker coverage today (see Broker Moves section below), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends 🔎📈
+5.1% Develop Global (DVP) - Continued positive response to yesterday's Quarterly Activities Report and Quarterly Cash Flow Report
+4.7% Boss Energy (BOE) - Continued positive response to yesterday's December 2024 Quarterly Results, generally positive broker coverage today (see Broker Moves section below), ditto DeepSeek relief rally
+4.6% Tasmea (TEA) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+4.3% Strike Energy (STX) - No news, generally stronger ASX energy sector today on continued DeepSeek relief rally, rise is consistent with prevailing short-term uptrend, long-term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈
+4.3% Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) - No news, generally strong ASX resources sector today on DeepSeek relief rally
+4.3% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - Quarterly Activities Report and Quarterly Cash Flow Report, ditto DeepSeek relief rally
+4.3% Qoria (QOR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+3.9% Droneshield (DRO) - Continued positive response to yesterday's $11.8 million Asia Pacific contracts and Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, generally positive broker coverage today (see Broker Moves section below)
+3.8% Paladin Energy (PDN) - No news, ditto DeepSeek relief rally
+3.8% Aussie Broadband (ABB) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends 🔎📈
+3.7% Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+3.5% Kelly Partners Group (KPG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
-25.4% Zip Co. (ZIP) - 2Q FY25 Results Update
-16.0% QPM Energy (QPM) - Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report
-12.6% Credit Corp Group (CCP) - Appendix 4D and Interim Financial Statements December 2024 and Credit Corp Group H1 of 2025 Results Presentation
-10.7% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) - December 2024 Quarterly Report
-8.3% Magellan Financial Group (MFG) - Update to Executive and Investment Teams
-7.7% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - Reversion to prevailing short and long-term downtrends after yesterday's Divestment of The Star Sydney Event Centre assets, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-7.7% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-4.6% Appen (APX) - Q4 FY24 Quarterly Activity Report and Appendix 4C
-4.1% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - Change in substantial holding (reduction)
-4.1% Adriatic Metals (ADT) - Quarterly Activities Report & Cashflow and Cashflow Presentation Q4 2024 Results
-4.0% Spartan Resources (SPR) - Major New 85,000m Drilling Program Commences
Life360 (360)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $26.00 from $24.00
29METALS (29M)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $0.20 from $0.25
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.30
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.29
4DMEDICAL (4DX)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.00 from $1.10
Alpha HPA (A4N)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00
Australian Clinical Labs (ACL)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.25 from $4.00
Adriatic Metals (ADT)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.75
Amplitude Energy (AEL)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.29 from $0.28
Alcidion Group (ALC)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.09
Atlas Arteria (ALX)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.80
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.30
Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $4.63 from $4.61
Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.30 from $5.00
Aurelia Metals (AMI)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.25 from $0.26
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.31 from $0.30
Ansell (ANN)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $39.00 from $38.00
Amotiv (AOV)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $14.00
ARB Corporation (ARB)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $50.00
Airtasker (ART)
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.56 from $0.52
Aroa Biosurgery (ARX)
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.93 from $1.05
Autosports Group (ASG)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.35 from $2.80
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.80 from $2.10
Articore Group (ATG)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.65
Anteris Technologies (AVR)
Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $15.00
Accent Group (AX1)
Downgraded to neutral from buy at Jarden; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.35
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.40
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.40
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.45 from $2.50
Bapcor (BAP)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $5.00
Baby Bunting Group (BBN)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.60
BCI Minerals (BCI)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.49
Brickworks (BKW)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $27.30 from $27.70
Boss Energy (BOE)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.55 from $5.75
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.40
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.80 from $4.50
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.70
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.40
Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.50
Breville Group (BRG)
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $38.00
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $28.00 from $27.00
Bluescope Steel (BSL)
Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $24.60 from $18.37
Car Group (CAR)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $39.50 from $38.00
Credit Corp Group (CCP)
Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $26.48
Codan (CDA)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $17.25 from $16.90
Champion Iron (CIA)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.40
COG Financial Services (COG)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.25 from $1.50
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.34 from $1.35
Cochlear (COH)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $340.00 from $332.00
CSL (CSL)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $286.00 from $278.00
Corporate Travel Management (CTD)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $14.50 from $13.00
Cettire (CTT)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.30
Retained at underperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.90
Domain Australia (DHG)
Retained at negative at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.85 from $3.20
Downer EDI (DOW)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.26
Droneshield (DRO)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.20
Develop Global (DVP)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.50
EML Payments (EML)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.20
Fineos Corporation (FCL)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.44
Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $19.00
Fortescue (FMG)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $21.00
G8 Education (GEM)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.80 from $1.70
Gold Road Resources (GOR)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.85 from $2.55
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.72 from $2.65
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.75 from $2.65
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.60
GWA Group (GWA)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.10 from $3.05
Healius (HLS)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.75
Hub24 (HUB)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $65.00
Insurance Australia Group (IAG)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.65
Integral Diagnostics (IDX)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.87
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.45
IGO (IGO)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.00
JP Morgan Global Select Equity Active ETF (JHC)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $68.10 from $65.10
James Hardie Industries (JHX)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $56.00
Karoon Energy (KAR)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.00
Kogan.Com (KGN)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.50 from $6.00
Lovisa (LOV)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.45
Retained at underperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $25.00
Metals Acquisition (MAC)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $21.00 from $21.25
Microba Life Sciences (MAP)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.36 from $0.35
Mineral Resources (MIN)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $35.00
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $52.00
Medibank Private (MPL)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.90
Monash IVF Group (MVF)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.56
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.75 from $1.50
Nanosonics (NAN)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.25 from $3.25
NIB (NHF)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $6.00
Netwealth Group (NWL)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $27.50
Pilbara Minerals (PLS)
Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $3.90 from $3.60
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.95
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.60
Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.80
Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $3.90
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.55
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $3.15 from $3.25
Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $2.40
Premier Investments (PMV)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $26.15 from $33.00
Pepper Money (PPM)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.70
Praemium (PPS)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.00
Perseus Mining (PRU)
Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.60
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.00 from $4.15
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.10
Retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $3.80
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.70
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.35
QBE Insurance Group (QBE)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $22.00
REA Group (REA)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $265.00 from $230.00
Regis Healthcare (REG)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $8.25 from $7.50
Reece (REH)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $25.85
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.40 from $24.10
Ramsay Health Care (RHC)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $56.00 from $52.00
Resmed Inc (RMD)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: US$238 from US$232
Ramelius Resources (RMS)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.20
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.60
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.80
Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.85
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.55 from $6.50
Siteminder (SDR)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $7.00 from $6.50
Sandfire Resources (SFR)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $10.50
SGH (SGH)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $51.90 from $50.90
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $52.00 from $44.00
Sonic Healthcare (SHL)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $32.00
Suncorp Group (SUN)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $19.90
Temple & Webster Group (TPW)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $16.00 from $14.00
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.97
Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $16.00 from $16.50
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $14.60
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $14.00
Universal Store (UNI)
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $7.00 from $6.50
Vault Minerals (VAU)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.55 from $0.54
Upgraded to buy from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $0.52 from $0.42
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.57
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.53 from $0.55
Ventia Services Group (VNT)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.85 from $5.77
Woodside Energy Group (WDS)
Upgraded to buy from neutral at Bank of America; Price Target: $27.10 from $25.50
Whitehaven Coal (WHC)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.00
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.90 from $9.10
Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $8.50 from $8.49
Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $8.10 from $8.20
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.50 from $9.00
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.95
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $9.50 from $9.65
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.60
Zip Co. (ZIP)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.60
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