Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 fails to extend bounce, Fed holds rates steady

Thu 30 Jan 25, 8:40am (AEDT)

ASX 200 futures are down 5pts (-0.05%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

  • S&P 500 failed to extend yesterday's bounce amid weakness across most sectors and Nvidia down 4.1%

  • Fed kept rates on hold, flagged solid labour markets and elevated inflation

  • Long list of resource quarterlies today including MinRes and Sandfire, plus a first-half FY25 result from Credit Corp

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Thu 30 Jan 25, 8:27am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500 6,039 -0.47%
Dow Jones 44,714 -0.31%
NASDAQ Comp 19,632 -0.51%
Russell 2000 2,287 -0.09%
Country Indices
Canada 25,473 +0.21%
China 3,251 -0.06%
Germany 21,638 +0.97%
Hong Kong 20,225 +0.14%
India 76,533 +0.83%
Japan 39,415 +1.02%
United Kingdom 8,558 +0.28%
Name Value % Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold 2,770.3 -0.09%
Iron Ore 101.3 -0.04%
Copper 4.2845 +0.82%
WTI Oil 72.84 -1.43%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6229 -0.40%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD) 104,026 +2.62%
Ethereum (AUD) 5,025 +0.91%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond 4.555 +0.09%
VIX 16.47 +0.36%

US Sectors

Thu 30 Jan 25, 8:27am (AEDT)

SECTOR % CHG
Communication Services +0.31%
Consumer Staples +0.26%
Utilities +0.19%
Energy +0.18%
Financials -0.03%
Materials -0.20%
SECTOR % CHG
Industrials -0.38%
Consumer Discretionary -0.50%
Health Care -0.57%
Information Technology -1.09%
Real Estate -1.19%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

SPX 2025-01-30 08-14-52
S&P 500 lower, bounced off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

  • Major US benchmarks finished lower but off worst levels

  • Modest weakness came after Wednesday’s bounce, but S&P 500 and Nasdaq still down a respective 1.0% and 1.6% for the week

  • Equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed by 15 bps after lagging yesterday on weak breadth

  • Today’s big story – Fed kept rates on hold. While mostly a non-event, takeaways leaned hawkish given views on firm labour market and elevated inflation

  • Trump sticking to 1-Feb deadline for tariffs on Canada and Mexico (RT)

  • DeepSeek selloff exposes broader market risks around Big Tech concentration (BBG)

  • Tech selloff not a bear market signal, low probability of falling profits, says Goldman Sachs (BBG)

  • Levered ETFs revenues up 37% year-on-year to US$940bn as speculators look to magnify returns (BBG)

STOCKS

  • ASML rallied 4.3% after Q4 earnings beat, reported €7.09bn in net bookings vs. €3.9bn estimates, representing a 169% increase on the previous quarter (CNBC

  • Starbucks soars 8.1% as it beats low earnings expectations for Q4, reported EPS of 69 cents vs. 67 cents estimates (FT)

  • Amazon announces dozens of corporate job cuts, mostly focused on communications department (BBG)

  • Advantest, Nvidia partner, lifts FY forecast almost 40% in anticipation of elevated spending around AI (BBG)

  • LVMH shares fall as sales growth fails to impress with wealthy shoppers remaining consumers (RT)

  • Ozempic wins US regulatory approval to treat chronic kidney disease with type 2 diabetes (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

  • Fed held rates at 4.25-4.5% as expected, says labour market remains “solid” (from previous “generally eased”) and inflation “remains somewhat elevated (changed from “has made progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective) (BBG)

  • Bank of Canada cuts by 25 bp, as expected, warns of price increases from tariff threats (BBG)

  • Sweden's central bank cut rates by 25 bp, signals end of its easing campaign (BBG)

  • ECB to cut rates as Europe eyes Trump tariffs, traders bet ECB will need to deepen and accelerate rate cuts (BBG)

AI

  • Traders scoop up leveraged NVDA ETFs, betting on quick rebound (RT)

  • DeepSeek threatens to lower demand for Nvidia's top chips, some say concerns overblown (lFT)

  • DeepSeek's more efficient model threatens growth forecasts for energy industry (BBG)

  • Microsoft, OpenAI suspect group linked to DeepSeek may have improperly obtained OpenAI data (FT)

  • White House assessing national security implications from DeepSeek amid claims of IP theft (RT)

  • Alibaba releases AI model it says beats DeepSeek (RT)

ECONOMY

  • German consumer confidence deteriorates amid higher layoffs and national elections next month (WSJ)

  • Australia inflation moderates, annual trimmed mean rose 3.2% in Q4 compared to economist forecasts of 3.3%, odds of February RBA rate cut soar to 90% (BBG)

Industry ETFs

Thu 30 Jan 25, 8:25am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Commodities
Uranium 28.29 +2.57%
Copper Miners 38.57 +1.53%
Silver 28.005 +1.36%
Steel 61.54 +0.65%
Gold Miners 37.9 +0.53%
Lithium & Battery Tech 40.82 +0.37%
Strategic Metals 40.92 +0.10%
Industrials
Agriculture 27.91 +1.27%
Global Jets 26.185 +0.63%
Aerospace & Defense 154.27 -0.43%
Construction 76.46 -0.77%
Healthcare
Biotechnology 137.49 -0.48%
Name Value % Chg
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 25.3 +3.10%
Renewables
Solar 33.63 +3.00%
CleanTech 6.6601 +2.62%
Hydrogen 20.83 -0.24%
Technology
Semiconductor 214.38 +0.41%
FinTech 32.94 +0.37%
Video Games/eSports 86.29 +0.14%
E-commerce 30.1558 +0.02%
Sports Betting/Gaming 20.05 -0.40%
Electric Vehicles 23.14 -0.52%
Cybersecurity 34.11 -1.27%
Robotics & AI 33.33 -1.33%
Cloud Computing 25.94 -1.52%

ASX TODAY

  • Euroz Hartleys guides to 501% year-on-year NPAT growth to $6.3m (EZL)

  • MinRes reiterates FY25 guidance, with Onslow Iron progressing towards its nameplate 35Mtpa run rate (MIN)

  • Sandfire Resources lifts 1H25 production by 5% to 75.1kt (representing 49% of annual guidance), retained full-year guidance with volumes now expected to be marginally skewed to 2H (SFR)

  • Sigma Healthcare receives 100% Chemist Warehouse shareholder approval for proposed merger, implementation to occur on 12-Feb (SIG)

  • Vulcan Energy holder Hancock Prospecting decreases stake from 6.5% to 7.5% (VUL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

  • Credit Corp – One of the first companies to report 1H25 results. Macquarie is forecasting $287.4m revenue, $86.7m EBITDA, $46.2m NPAT and an interim dividend of 34 cents per share

BROKER MOVES

  • Accent Group downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $2.43 from $2.47 (JARD)

  • Accent Group downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $2.10 from $2.35 (JARD)

  • Bluescope Steel assumed Buy; target up to $24.60 from $18.37 (JEF)

  • Vault Minerals upgraded to Buy from Overweight; target up to $0.52 from $0.52  (JARD)

Key Events

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

  • Thu 30 Jan: Djerriwarrh Investments (DJW) – $0.072, 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.052, Perpetual Credit Income Trust (PCI) – $0.007, KKR Credit Income Fund (KKC) – $0.017, Gryphon Capital Income Trust (GCI) – $0.014

  • Fri 31 Jan: Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.016, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.014, Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.01

  • Mon 3 Feb: Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFI) – $0.12, BKI Investment Company (BKI) – $0.039, Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – $0.012

  • Tue 4 Feb: Amcil (AMH) – $0.01

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

  • Dividends paid: Bravura Solutions (BVS), RAM Essential Services (REP), Region Group (RGN), Tower (TWR)

  • Listing: None

  • Earnings: Credit Corp (CCP), Champion Iron (CIA)

  • AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

  • 4:30 pm: France GDP Growth (Q4)

  • 7:00 pm: Germany GDP Growth (Q4)

  • 8:00 pm: Eurozone GDP Growth (Q4)

  • 11:15 pm: ECB Interest Rate Decision (Consensus: 25 bp cut)

Written By

Kerry Sun

Content Strategist

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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