Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 fails to extend bounce, Fed holds rates steady

ASX 200 futures are down 5pts (-0.05%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 failed to extend yesterday's bounce amid weakness across most sectors and Nvidia down 4.1%

• Fed kept rates on hold, flagged solid labour markets and elevated inflation

• Long list of resource quarterlies today including MinRes and Sandfire, plus a first-half FY25 result from Credit Corp

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, bounced off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished lower but off worst levels

• Modest weakness came after Wednesday’s bounce, but S&P 500 and Nasdaq still down a respective 1.0% and 1.6% for the week

• Equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed by 15 bps after lagging yesterday on weak breadth

• Today’s big story – Fed kept rates on hold. While mostly a non-event, takeaways leaned hawkish given views on firm labour market and elevated inflation

• Trump sticking to 1-Feb deadline for tariffs on Canada and Mexico (RT)

• DeepSeek selloff exposes broader market risks around Big Tech concentration (BBG)

• Tech selloff not a bear market signal, low probability of falling profits, says Goldman Sachs (BBG)

• Levered ETFs revenues up 37% year-on-year to US$940bn as speculators look to magnify returns (BBG)

STOCKS

• ASML rallied 4.3% after Q4 earnings beat, reported €7.09bn in net bookings vs. €3.9bn estimates, representing a 169% increase on the previous quarter (CNBC) 

• Starbucks soars 8.1% as it beats low earnings expectations for Q4, reported EPS of 69 cents vs. 67 cents estimates (FT)

• Amazon announces dozens of corporate job cuts, mostly focused on communications department (BBG)

• Advantest, Nvidia partner, lifts FY forecast almost 40% in anticipation of elevated spending around AI (BBG)

• LVMH shares fall as sales growth fails to impress with wealthy shoppers remaining consumers (RT)

• Ozempic wins US regulatory approval to treat chronic kidney disease with type 2 diabetes (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed held rates at 4.25-4.5% as expected, says labour market remains “solid” (from previous “generally eased”) and inflation “remains somewhat elevated (changed from “has made progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective) (BBG)

• Bank of Canada cuts by 25 bp, as expected, warns of price increases from tariff threats (BBG)

• Sweden's central bank cut rates by 25 bp, signals end of its easing campaign (BBG)

• ECB to cut rates as Europe eyes Trump tariffs, traders bet ECB will need to deepen and accelerate rate cuts (BBG)

AI

• Traders scoop up leveraged NVDA ETFs, betting on quick rebound (RT)

• DeepSeek threatens to lower demand for Nvidia's top chips, some say concerns overblown (lFT)

• DeepSeek's more efficient model threatens growth forecasts for energy industry (BBG)

• Microsoft, OpenAI suspect group linked to DeepSeek may have improperly obtained OpenAI data (FT)

• White House assessing national security implications from DeepSeek amid claims of IP theft (RT)

• Alibaba releases AI model it says beats DeepSeek (RT)

ECONOMY

• German consumer confidence deteriorates amid higher layoffs and national elections next month (WSJ)

• Australia inflation moderates, annual trimmed mean rose 3.2% in Q4 compared to economist forecasts of 3.3%, odds of February RBA rate cut soar to 90% (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Euroz Hartleys guides to 501% year-on-year NPAT growth to $6.3m (EZL)

• MinRes reiterates FY25 guidance, with Onslow Iron progressing towards its nameplate 35Mtpa run rate (MIN)

• Sandfire Resources lifts 1H25 production by 5% to 75.1kt (representing 49% of annual guidance), retained full-year guidance with volumes now expected to be marginally skewed to 2H (SFR)

• Sigma Healthcare receives 100% Chemist Warehouse shareholder approval for proposed merger, implementation to occur on 12-Feb (SIG)

• Vulcan Energy holder Hancock Prospecting decreases stake from 6.5% to 7.5% (VUL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Credit Corp – One of the first companies to report 1H25 results. Macquarie is forecasting $287.4m revenue, $86.7m EBITDA, $46.2m NPAT and an interim dividend of 34 cents per share

BROKER MOVES

• Accent Group downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $2.43 from $2.47 (JARD)

• Accent Group downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $2.10 from $2.35 (JARD)

• Bluescope Steel assumed Buy; target up to $24.60 from $18.37 (JEF)

• Vault Minerals upgraded to Buy from Overweight; target up to $0.52 from $0.52  (JARD)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 30 Jan: Djerriwarrh Investments (DJW) – $0.072, 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.052, Perpetual Credit Income Trust (PCI) – $0.007, KKR Credit Income Fund (KKC) – $0.017, Gryphon Capital Income Trust (GCI) – $0.014

• Fri 31 Jan: Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.016, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.014, Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.01

• Mon 3 Feb: Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFI) – $0.12, BKI Investment Company (BKI) – $0.039, Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – $0.012

• Tue 4 Feb: Amcil (AMH) – $0.01

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Bravura Solutions (BVS), RAM Essential Services (REP), Region Group (RGN), Tower (TWR)

• Listing: None

• Earnings: Credit Corp (CCP), Champion Iron (CIA)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 4:30 pm: France GDP Growth (Q4)

• 7:00 pm: Germany GDP Growth (Q4)

• 8:00 pm: Eurozone GDP Growth (Q4)

• 11:15 pm: ECB Interest Rate Decision (Consensus: 25 bp cut)