Evening Wrap: ASX 200 steadies on Santos, Woodside gains as uranium and lithium rollercoaster rides continue

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 6.9 points higher, up 0.08%.

A modest gain in the benchmark ASX 200 after out a rough start, with most sectors nudging into the green by the close.

A rebound in Energy stocks like Santos (STO) (+2.1%), and Woodside (WDS) (+1.6%) was most notable, but there was decent support from the big healthcare stocks like Pro Medicus (PME) (+0.9%), Cochlear (COH) (+0.8%), and CSL (CSL) (+0.5%).

The only sector of the market that did it really tough today was uranium (again!), as investors' faith in the sector continues to waiver in the aftermath of Boss Energy's (BOE) (-5.5%) massive plunge yesterday, and as the spot uranium price continues to ebb.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Lithium Carbonate Futures in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 6.9 points higher at 8,704.6, 0.71% from its session low and smack–bang on its session high. But! Despite the seemingly strong finish on the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 120 to 153.

A rebound in Energy stocks like Santos (STO) (+2.1%), and Woodside (WDS) (+1.6%) was most notable across the Aussie market today, but there was decent support from the big Healthcare stocks like Pro Medicus (PME) (+0.9%), Cochlear (COH) (+0.8%), and CSL (CSL) (+0.5%).

Both sectors have seen solid runs over the last 4-weeks, and therefore today's relative strength is simply in keeping with recent trends. The money has to go somewhere... and we know how the big fundies love play their current favourites!

ASX 200 Energy Sector Index (XEJ) (click here for full size image)

ASX 200 Healtcare Sector Index (XHJ) (click here for full size image)

The only sector of the market that did it really tough today was uranium (again!), as investors' faith in the sector continues to waiver in the aftermath of Boss Energy's (BOE) (-5.5%) massive plunge yesterday, and as the spot uranium price continues to ebb. Scroll down to the Biggest Losers table for a snapshot of the broader sector carnage.

Lithium stocks started in a similar fashion, again on the back of heavy losses yesterday, but a few managed to steady somewhat by the close. Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-1.5%) was lower, while IGO (IGO) (0.0%) was steady – but both were roughly 3% better than their respective low points today.

As you'll see in tonight's ChartWatch below, lithium stocks are riding the rollercoaster that is lithium futures pricing in China over the last few days and weeks.

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

Like clockwork... 🕰️ (click here for full size image)

Like clockwork, another tick higher for the Comp. It was only a modest demand-side candle, gapping higher on the open, retesting Friday's high, and then rallying into the close.

But it is a demand-side candle nonetheless... and it confirms what we already know here: The demand-side is firmly in control of price.

I have nothing new to add to my previous analysis here. As usual, watch out for the signs the supply-side may be creeping in to grapple control, such as supply-side candles (i.e., black-bodied and or upward pointing shadows, lower peaks, or a close below 20750 / the short term uptrend ribbon).

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Tap and go 💳 (click here for full size image)

The market breadth (120 ⬆️ vs 153 ⬇️) leaves a little to be desired, but like the Comp, everything ran pretty much to script today for the old Tin Pot.

We tapped static demand at 8616-8640, which coincides nicely with the dynamic demand of the short term uptrend ribbon – and shot back up again = ✅.

This price action formed the downward pointing shadow which we ascribe to the existence of excess demand in the system.

As for that less-than-ideal market breadth – at the end of the day, the technical analysis we do here is of the XJO and not its constituents, and therefore it can be skewed by the performance of just a few heavily weighted stocks.

Naturally, the broader the rally (i.e., the greater the skew of gainers versus decliners), the more likely your portfolio is to benefit from the strong technicals evidenced here. In my experience, strong market breadth is also supportive of the maintenance of a strong and stable uptrend...

The rising XJO does not necessarily lift all ships, so it's important to try to place oneself in the strongest uptrends within the index. Ultimately this must be done on a case by case basis (your homework!).

I'm going "ditto" on the Comp, i.e., there's nothing new to add here. Boring is beautiful for a trend follower in a strong and well-established trend! 😍

Lithium Carbonate Futures (Benchmark month, back-adjusted) GFEX

Fascinating times ahead for lithium lovers! (click here for full size image)

Lithium carbonate is shaping up as chart of the year, both for its cascading downtrend in the first half, and (since the landing gear went up on my plane at the end of June), its stunning about-face rally.

Jan 1 – Jun 23 High to Low = -25.3%

Jun 23 – Jul 25 Low to High = +37.8%

In the last 2 trading sessions – in keeping with the incredible volatility this year – High to low = -11.8%.

I’m still catching up on the reasons for the shenanigans (including antiinvolution, a classic Chinese speculative pump, and regulators stepping in to cool things down!), so I’ll just stick to the technicals here.

In my experience, which goes back over 30 years, one-day rallies of +10% on record volume are usually pretty good indicators of a major low in a market.

The 24-Jul candle, with its long white body and high close was exactly this. It was followed by another 5%-odd rally the next day on near-record volume. A massive overhang of supply was cleaned out of the lithium market.

The price action, candles and volume heading into those two white candles are consistent with substantial demand-side control.

In keeping with my clear out of supply theory, points of supply at 63020, 65680, 72420 and 77000 were consumed – without much trouble, either.

The short term trend ribbon has swung to up, and the long term trend ribbon has transitioned to neutral / equilibrium. On Friday, the price closed above the long term trend ribbon. These factors are all consistent with trend change from down to up.

Putting aside the last two day’s selloff, my experience of these matters suggests that a long term low in the lithium carbonate price is very likely in.

But there are some other factors at play here, mainly to do with a potential speculative bubble. When bubbles burst, they’ll do so with a major about-face and on similarly high volume. So, the last couple of trading sessions gives some cause for concern and caution here.

Let me conclude by saying that the above chart has gone a very long way to stamping the low of the 3-year bear market in lithium. The price action, volatility and volume cannot be ignored.

It is worth however, waiting to see how the next few sessions play out as GFEX trading restrictions aimed at curbing speculative traders work their way through the system.

68020 is a key point of demand, as is the dynamic demand of the short term uptrend ribbon. If this rally is to stick, we really shouldn’t close below either of them. Today's candle, with it's downward pointing shadow bottoming at 68600 is a good start...

Don’t / Never underestimate the power of the long term trend ribbon to impede upward price action in a bear market. If only by pure coincidence, it appears that it’s having an impact right now.

Clear signals of a resumption of demand-side control are required to restart the new rally, and therefore confirm the transition from bear to new bull market. As you know, this means testing, holding, and bouncing off the long term trend ribbon.

Long white candles and or long downward pointing shadows are essential in the candles to bring this about – while long black candles and or long upward pointing shadows will likely numb lithium bulls’ hopes just as fast.

One thing is for sure... there are fascinating times ahead for lithium lovers and technical analysts alike!

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Wednesday

• 00:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings June (7.49 million forecast vs 7.77 million previous)

• 00:00 USA Conference Board Consumer Confidence July (95.9 forecast vs 93.0 previous)

• 11:30 AUS Consumer Price Index June Quarter

  • Headline: +0.8% q/q and +2.1% p.a. vs +0.9% q/q and +2.1% p.a. in March

  • Trimmed Mean: +0.7% q/q forecast vs +0.7% p.a. in March

• 22:30 USA Advance GDP June Quarter (+2.4% p.a. forecast vs -0.5% p.a. (revised down from -0.3% p.a.) in March)

Thursday

• 04:00 USA Federal Funds Rate & Statement (no change at 4.50% forecast)

• 04:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Press Conference

• 11:30 AUS Retail Sales June (+0.4% m/m vs +0.2% m/m in May)

• 11:30 AUS Building Approvals June (+1.7% m/m vs +3.2% m/m in May)

• 11:30 CHN Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) July (+1.7% m/m vs +3.2% m/m in May)

  • Manufacturing: 49.7 forecast vs 49.7 in June

  • Non-manufacturing: 50.3 forecast vs 50.5 in June

• Tentative JPN BOJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement & Press Conference (unchanged at <0.50% forecast)

• 22:30 USA Core PCE June

  • Price Index: +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% m/m in May

  • Personal Income: +0.2% m/m vs -0.4% m/m in May

  • Personal Spending: +0.4% m/m vs -0.1% m/m in May

Friday

• 00:00 USA Non-Farm Payrolls July

  • Employment Change: +108,000 forecast vs 147,000 in June

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% forecast vs +0.2% in June

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.2% forecast vs 4.1% in June

Saturday

• 00:00 USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (49.5 forecast vs 49.0 previous)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +9.2% Larvotto Resources (LRV) – No news, rebounded after yesterday's sharp sell-off due to 25-Jul $60 million Equity Raising Successfully Completed.

• +5.6% Platinum Asset Management (PTM) – No news, generally stronger asset managers today on broadly stronger risk assets across the globe, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +4.4% Tasmea (TEA) – Change of Director's Interest Notice - Trent Northover, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +4.1% Catapult Group International (CAT) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +3.7% EVT (EVT) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +3.6% Austal (ASB) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +3.6% EBR Systems (EBR) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +3.6% Warriedar Resources (WA8) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends🔎📈

Trading lower

• -23.9% Greatland Gold (GGP) – June 2025 Quarter Presentation and June 2025 Quarterly Activities Report.

• -13.0% Sun Silver (SS1) – No news, today's move is consistent with recent volatility.

• -9.7% Green Critical Minerals (GCM) – No news, general weakness across the broader Battery Materials sector today.

• -8.7% Minerals 260 (MI6) – Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -8.3% Wildcat Resources (WC8) – Tabba Tabba Pfs Confirms Potential For Long-Life Mine, general weakness across the broader Battery Materials sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.0% Brainchip (BRN) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.8% Vection Technologies (VR1) – Vection Secures $7.2m Defence Order.

• -6.4% Viva Energy Group (VEA) – 1H2025 Trading Update and Unaudited Group Result, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -5.8% Paladin Energy (PDN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -5.7% Lotus Resources (LOT) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -5.6% Appen (APX) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -5.5% Boss Energy (BOE) – Ceasing to be a substantial holder plus continued negative response to 28-Jul June 2025 Quarterly Results Presentation and Honeymoon FY26 Guidance, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -5.2% Deep Yellow (DYL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -0.1% Tuas (TUA) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -5.0% Silex Systems (SLX) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -4.5% Core Lithium (CXO) – No news, general weakness across the broader Battery Materials sector today.

Broker Moves

29Metals (29M)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.30

AIC Mines (A1M)

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.45 from $0.48

Adriatic Metals Plc (ADT)

• Retained at Hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.00

Aeris Resources (AIS)

• Upgraded to Speculative Buy from Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.28 from $0.23

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $70.00

ALS (ALQ)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.45

Accent Group (AX1)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.95 from $2.50

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at Buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $1.35 from $1.40

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.15

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.75

• Retained at Neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $0.90

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.30

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $41.00

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.86

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.95 from $4.10

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.50 from $5.30

• Downgraded to Negative from Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $1.60 from $3.20

• Retained at Hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $2.00 from $5.00

• Retained at Overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.25 from $4.10

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.25 from $4.45

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.65 from $3.25

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.10 from $4.10

• Retained at Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.75 from $3.90

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.88 from $3.26

• Retained at Sell at UBS; Price Target: $3.50

Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT)

• Initiated at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.27

BlueScope Steel (BSL)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $25.00 from $25.30

Bubs Australia (BUB)

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.17 from $0.14

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.20

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.20

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $11.00

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $12.00

Core Lithium (CXO)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.11

Cygnus Metals (CY5)

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.25

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $6.75 from $6.93

Domain Holdings Australia (DHG)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.43 from $3.25

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.30

Develop Global (DVP)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.30 from $5.00

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.84

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.80

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Initiated at Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.40

Emerald Resources NL (EMR)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.00

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $7.60

FireFly Metals (FFM)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.60

Fortescue (FMG)

• Upgraded to Hold from Sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $17.40 from $15.87

FleetPartners Group (FPR)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.68 from $3.77

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $11.00

Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.20

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.20

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $36.00

Gold Road Resources (GOR)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.25

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.40

Helloworld Travel (HLO)

• Upgraded to Overweight from UNKNOWN at Jarden; Price Target: $2.80 from $2.61

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.70

HMC Capital (HMC)

• Retained at Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.46 from $6.30

Hazer Group (HZR)

• Initiated at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.70

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $5.20

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50

Intelligent Monitoring Group (IMB)

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.90 from $0.80

Imdex (IMD)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.80

Imricor Medical Systems Inc (IMR)

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.22 from $2.28

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $46.80 from $39.80

Johns Lyng Group (JLG)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.00 from $2.70

Lunnon Metals (LM8)

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.60

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $188.00

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.45

• Retained at Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.55

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.32

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $31.00

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $16.65

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Downgraded to Hold from Accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $222.87 from $223.89

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $115.00

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $21.00 from $21.78

NRW Holdings (NWH)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.65

Predictive Discovery (PDI)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.45

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.30 from $7.45

Peninsula Energy (PEN)

• Retained at Hold at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.00

Proteomics International Laboratories (PIQ)

• Retained at Hold at Morgans; Price Target: $0.43

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.15

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.50

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at Buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $4.80

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.80 from $3.90

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.60

• Retained at Buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $4.20

• Downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.90

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.10 from $4.00

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.15 from $4.20

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $120.00

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $113.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.90

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.10

• Retained at Accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $5.10 from $5.20

Resolute Mining (RSG)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.90

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.82

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $12.00

Stanmore Resources (SMR)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $2.30 from $2.25

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.10

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.40

Sayona Mining (SYA)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.02

The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.30 from $5.35

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at Buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $0.70

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.68

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.75

• Retained at Buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $0.67

• Retained at Buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.47 from $0.48

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Retained at Sell at UBS; Price Target: $2.38

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.40

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $6.60 from $6.10

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.00 from $7.60

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.00 from $6.30

Scans