ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 29th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, July 29. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 bounces off worst levels

[2:11 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is trading 0.19% lower, up from session lows (-0.62%).

Most sectors have followed this price action, bouncing from intraday lows (e.g. ASX 200 Materials Index almost breakeven, from session lows of -0.82%).

Sectors including Tech (+0.3%), Utilities (+0.2%), Energy (+0.1%) and Healthcare (+0.1%) have all reversed into positive territory.

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Viva Energy tumbles on 1H25 miss

[12:45 pm] Viva Energy shares are trading sharply lower after its first-half update fell short of market expectations. Here are the key points:

• Viva Energy provided a trading update for the first half of 2025, reporting unaudited EBITDA across its Convenience & Mobility (C&M) and Commercial & Industrial (C&I) to be approximately $310 million vs. prior guidance of $270-330 million.

• Group EBITDA to be approximately $300m vs. Macquarie forecasts of $334m (10% miss)

• Total C&M fuel sales down 0.5% year-on-year

• Convenience sales down 10% year-on-year, driven by a decline in tobacco sales, which fell 27% due to impact of new packaging laws

• Geelong refining margin of $8.2/bbl vs. $10.4/bbl a year ago and Macquarie ests of $8.75/bbl (6.2% miss)

Despite the company's upgrade, Group EBITDA and refining margins fell short of analyst expectations.

Viva shares opened 5% lower ($2.08), fell as much as 11.8% ($1.93) and currently down 8% ($2.02).

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Chinese lithium futures open sharply lower

[11:32 am] Chinese lithium carbonate futures tumbled 6.3% to 70,500 yuan in early trade, extending Monday’s 8% plunge that triggered a trading halt after hitting the daily limit down.

Interestingly, lithium stocks are holding up relatively well, with Pilbara Minerals down 0.5% and Liontown trading flat. Though most lithium names sold off sharply on Monday (PLS down 11.7%).

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Small caps making moves

[11:31 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:35 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Liontown slips on Q4 production report

[10:25 am] Liontown shares opened lower this morning (-2.3%), a move that is relatively in-line with the broader lithium sector (PLS down -1.5%). Here are the key numbers for the June quarter:

• Q4 revenue down 7.7% quarter-on-quarter to $96m

• Q4 spodumene shipments of 97.3kdmt vs. 96kdmt ests (1.4% beat)

• Grade of concentrate sold was 5.2%, in-line with market expectations

• Realised price (SC6.0 basis) was $740/dmt vs. $718/dmt ests (3.1% beat)

• Unit operating costs (FOB) at A$898/t vs. A$903/t ests (0.6% beat)

• Cash and cash equivalents of $155.6m

Liontown also guided to FY26 production of 365-450kdmt at unit operating costs (FOB) between A$855-1,045/dmt.

To add some perspective, Goldman Sachs (Apr-25) was expecting 448kt production at unit costs of A$980. This suggests that production and cost guidance (at the midpoint) is a respective 9% miss and 3% beat vs. GS forecasts.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Liontown Resources (LTR)

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Boss Energy extends selloff

[10:10 am] Boss Energy is down 7.9% ($1.76) in early trade. The stock has almost halved (-48.3%) in the last two sessions, trading at levels not seen since June 2022.

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Greatland Gold opens 13% lower

[10:02 am] Greatland Gold has opened 12.9% lower ($6.00) after reporting the worse-than-expected production and cost guidance for FY26.

The stock is now down 9% from its IPO offer price of $6.60.

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Greatland Gold guides to soft FY26

[9:55 am] Greatland Gold reported a mixed FY25 gold production of 198.3koz vs. 196-210koz guidance at an AISC of A$1,849/oz vs. $2,100-2,250/oz guidance. So slightly softer-than-expected production at substantially lower costs.

However, its FY26 guidance was well below market expectations. Here are the key numbers (vs. Citi ests):

• Gold production of 260-310koz vs. 325koz ests (12.3% below ests)

• AISC of A$2,400-2,800/oz vs. $2,492/oz ests (4.3% above ests)

The downgrade follows " an assessment undertaken subsequent to the final FY25 results and as part of the FY26 budget process, which included risk weighting the potential for lower gold grade of the existing ROM stockpiles mined in 2024 prior to Greatland’s acquisition of Telfer, and certain open pit areas intended to be mined in FY26."

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Greatland Gold (GGP)

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Viva Energy guides to mixed 1H25

[9:47 am] Viva Energy provided a trading update for the first half of 2025, reporting unaudited EBITDA across its Convenience & Mobility (C&M) and Commercial & Industrial (C&I) to be approximately $310 million vs. prior guidance of $270-330 million. Other takeaways from the update include:

• Group EBITDA to be approximately $300m vs. $329m consensus

• Total C&M fuel sales down 0.5% year-on-year

• Convenience sales down 10% year-on-year, driven by a decline in tobacco sales, which fell 27% due to impact of new packaging laws

• Geelong refining margin of $8.2/bbl vs. $10.4/bbl a year ago

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Viva Energy (VEA)

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Boss Energy faces steep target price cuts

[9:42 am] Boss Energy’s shares crashed 44% on Monday after management withdrew guidance for Honeymoon to reach nameplate capacity by FY27, citing higher costs, capital spend, and operational challenges at East Kalkaroo that undermine long-term economics.

Analyst sentiment has turned cautious with multiple price target cuts, as the market awaits clarity from an independent review and the incoming CEO’s execution.

• RBC Capital Markets maintained Sector Perform, lowering target from $3.90 to $2.75. Cost blowouts and leachability concerns risk nameplate delivery, with life-of-mine output downgraded and a cautious valuation stance maintained.

• JPMorgan maintained Overweight, lowering target from $4.10 to $2.25. FY26 guidance is reasonable but cost structure and orebody complexities cast doubt on nameplate achievement; share price drop seen as exaggerated.

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Analysts take on Perseus

[9:30 am] Perseus Mining delivered a solid Q4 report, with FY25 production at the top end of guidance and costs below expectations, supported by strong output from Yaouré.

While FY26 guidance was softer due to ramp-up delays and higher royalties, analysts largely viewed it as temporary and maintained positive outlooks given the company’s strong balance sheet and growth pipeline.

In response to the quarterly, UBS analysts retained a Buy rating but lowered their target price to $4.15 from $4.20.

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Capricorn receives KEP expansion approval

[9:28 am] Capricorn Metals has received key regulatory approval to develop its Karlawinda Expansion Project (KEP), paving the way for gold production to increase by ~25% to 150koz per annum.

The expansion includes a parallel crushing and ball mill circuit to boost processing capacity from 4Mtpa to 6.5Mtpa, with procurement and early site works already underway. Final approvals and an updated cost estimate are expected in early Q2.

Most analysts expect Karlawinda to hit a 6.5Mtpa run rate around FY27.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Capricorn Metals (CMM)

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Sandfire reports June quarter, FY25 production

[9:15 am] Here are the key takeaways for Sandfire's FY25 production and preliminary earnings (vs. Citi ests):

• Total copper production up 10% year-on-year to 107.2kt vs. 109kt ests (1.7% miss)

• Group copper equivalent production up 12% year-on-year to 152.4kt

• MATSA C1 unit cost down 20% to $1.54/lb

• Motheo C1 unit cost down 19% to $1.37/lb

• Group capex down 4% to $208m vs. $208m ests (in-line)

• Group net debt down 69% to $123m vs. $166m ests (26% better-than-expected)

• Group unaudited revenue of $1.18bn vs. $1.16bn ests (1.7% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA of $528m, unclear if comparable to underlying EBITDA ests of $519m (1.7% beat, if applicable)

For FY26, Sandfire guided to:

• Copper production of 102-114kt vs. 111kt ests (2.7% miss at the midpoint)

• Flagged a 10% increase in Motheo's underlying operating unit costs

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Sandfire Resources (SFR)

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Ora Banda reports June quarter production

[9:05 am] Ora Banda's June quarter production report should contain no surprises as the company pre-released the numbers earlier this month, which noted FY25 gold production of 92.4koz vs. its guidance of 95koz.

The stock fell 9% on the day of the announcement (11-Jul), to near year-to-date lows.

Today's announcement noted a cash position of $84.2 million, up only $3.5 million from the prior quarter due to ongoing capex, resource development and exploration expenditure.

Ora Banda reaffirmed its FY26 production guidance of 140-155koz at an AISC of A$2,800-2,900/oz.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Ora Banda (OBM)

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Monadelphous announces over $110 million in new contract wins

[9:00 am] Monadelphous has announced over $110 million in new contract wins and extensions across the resources and infrastructure sectors, further strengthening its construction and maintenance pipeline.

• Awarded an electrical and instrumentation construction contract at Rio Tinto’s Parker Point Stockyard project near Dampier, with completion expected by mid-2026.

• Secured a contract for electrical and instrumentation works on the Fitzroy to Gladstone Pipeline project in Central Queensland, to be completed by late 2025.

• Received a five-year extension to its long-standing maintenance contract at Newmont’s Boddington and Tanami gold operations, continuing a relationship that began in 2015.

The company frequently announces new contract wins, though most have little to no impact on the share price.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Monadelphous Group (MND)

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A busy week of earnings

[8:58 am] It's a massive week for US corporate earnings, with 38% of the S&P 500 reporting Q2 earnings (vs. 16% last week and 11% next week).

Earnings from the tech heavyweights roll in this week, with Meta and Microsoft reporting Wednesday after the bell, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday, as investors zero in on AI-driven growth, cloud momentum, and spending trends.

• Meta is expected to post strong ad revenue following Alphabet's solid ad results, but investor focus will be on rising AI-related expenses and capex; analysts remain positive on the AI outlook and are looking for updates on monetisation, particularly in advertising.

• Microsoft’s results will centre on Azure, with previews highlighting potential tailwinds from security and cloud migrations; AI tools are expected to contribute roughly half of Azure’s ~36% y/y growth.

• Amazon’s AWS is also under the spotlight, with analysts anticipating a slight deceleration from Q1 but flagging AI demand and increased capex as potential catalysts for a 2H reacceleration.

• Apple faces a relatively low bar amid tariff risks, AI challenges, and China competition, though some analysts see scope for increased AI capex or a partnership announcement with a proprietary AI firm like Anthropic or Perplexity.

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq eke out record highs

[8:55 am] It was another record-setting session overnight, with the S&P 500 (+0.02%) and Nasdaq (+0.33%) rising for a sixth straight day and both closing at all-time highs. But for most investors, it didn’t feel like a win— the Equal-weight S&P 500 fell 0.59% and eight of eleven sectors finished in the red, suggesting broad market weakness beneath the surface.

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US earnings stand tall, beat rate above historic averages

[8:50 am] FactSet’s latest Earnings Insight report highlights a stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings season so far, with broad-based beats and emerging macro and thematic drivers shaping market sentiment.

• Q2 S&P 500 EPS growth is tracking at 6.4%, ahead of the 4.9% expected at the start of earnings season.

• 80% of companies have beaten EPS estimates so far, outperforming the one-year average of 77%.

• 80% have also exceeded sales expectations, a significant beat compared to the one-year average of 62%.

• The average earnings surprise is just over 6%, roughly in line with the one-year average, suggesting that while beat rates are high, the magnitude of surprises is more muted.

• Management commentary has pointed to a resilient US macro environment, despite looming second half tariff risks, which are partly offset by mitigation strategies.

• AI remains a dominant theme, with companies citing higher capex, improved monetisation, and productivity gains as key drivers.

• Analysts highlight improving earnings revision ratios, broader margin expansion, and a pickup in corporate activity as signs of growing confidence.

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Good morning!

[8:32 am] ASX 200 futures are down 60pts (-0.69%) despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edging out another record close.

While the S&P 500 finished 0.02% higher, the Equal-weight S&P 500 tumbled -0.59%, suggesting poor breadth. The major benchmarks were buoyed a handful of megacap names like Tesla (+3.0%), Nvidia (+1.8%) and Broadcom (+1.4%).

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.