The ASX 200 advanced as benchmark bond yields steadied overnight — not falling, but at least not surging — releasing enough pressure on copper, gold, and iron ore prices to send mining stocks sharply higher. Energy was good, but that's commonplace given circumstances... with the defensives and bond proxies firmly on the nose.
Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.
Let’s dive in!
Today in Review
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
| ASX 200 | 8,696.5 | +0.28% |
| All Ords | 8,874.5 | +0.28% |
| Small Ords | 3,357.2 | +0.63% |
| All Tech | 2,765.6 | +0.17% |
| Emerging Companies | 3,007.8 | +1.02% |
Currency | ||
| AUD/USD | 0.7128 | -0.05% |
US Futures | ||
| S&P 500 | 7,663.75 | -0.38% |
| Dow Jones | 52,571.0 | -0.55% |
| Nasdaq | 29,277.0 | -0.59% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Sector | ||
| Energy | 11,237.4 | +2.19% |
| Materials | 23,930.5 | +1.28% |
| Communication Services | 1,563.6 | +0.46% |
| Industrials | 7,923.0 | +0.36% |
| Information Technology | 1,644.4 | +0.30% |
| Utilities | 10,269.0 | +0.28% |
| Health Care | 31,709.3 | +0.08% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 3,496.1 | -0.35% |
| Financials | 9,054.1 | -0.37% |
| Real Estate | 3,213.3 | -0.57% |
| Consumer Staples | 12,970.4 | -1.15% |
ASX 200 Intraday Chart
%20intraday%20chart_16%20Sep.png)
Markets
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 24.0 points higher at 8,696.5, 0.33% from its session low and just 0.1% from its high. Reflecting the narrow gain at benchmark level, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a narrow 154 to 122.
Energy (XEJ) (+2.2%) was Tuesday's best sector, catching the tailwind from Monday's overnight crude surge even as ICE Brent crude futures eased 1.2% to US$107.45/bbl in Asian trade — the sector is clearly on the right side of the current energy crisis, and investors are treating intraday oil pullbacks as buying opportunities rather than exit signals. Refiners and distributors led — Viva Energy (VEA) (+3.3%) and Ampol (ALD) (+2.5%) were the standouts. Oil and gas producers matched the enthusiasm — Beach Energy (BPT) (+3.4%), Woodside Energy (WDS) (+2.8%), Karoon Energy (KAR) (+2.2%), and Santos (STO) (+2.1%) all advanced.
%20intraday%20chart_16%20Sep.png)
S&P/ASX 200 Energy (XEJ) intraday chart
The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+1.5%) recovered as the two forces that had hammered it through September eased simultaneously — benchmark bond yields steadied overnight rather than surging further, and crude's modest pullback reduced the diesel cost pressure on gold mining operations. COMEX gold futures gained 1.0% to US$4,377/oz in Asian trade, helping Pantoro Gold (PNR) (+9.3%), St Barbara (SBM) (+8.2%), Alkane Resources (ALK) (+4.9%), and Newmont (NEM) (+2.3%) to gains.
Materials (XMJ) (+1.3%) rode the same tailwind — steadying bond yields removed the global-growth headwind that had been weighing on commodity demand expectations, while lower crude in Asian trade eased diesel cost concerns. COMEX copper futures gained 0.7% to US$6.488/lb after rising 0.6% overnight, while SGX iron ore futures added 0.2% to US$95.60/t. South32 (S32) (+3.1%), Cobre (CBE) (+3.0%), 29Metals (29M) (+3.0%), and Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+2.9%) led the copper names. Fortescue (FMG) (+2.0%), BHP (BHP) (+1.6%), and Rio Tinto (RIO) (+1.1%) also advanced.
%20intraday%20chart_16%20Sep.png)
S&P/ASX 200 Materials (XMJ) intraday chart
Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-1.1%) was the day's worst sector — an almost mirror-image reversal of yesterday's defensive rotation. Quite simply, here on the OTP, when risk appetite returns and capital flows back into mining and energy – the businesses supplying everyday essentials lose the premium they had commanded probably the day before! 🤦
Endeavour Group (EDV) (-3.8%) was the sharpest faller, with Coles (COL) (-1.1%) and Woolworths (WOW) (-1.1%) both retreating from recent defensive-flow highs.
Real Estate (XPJ) (-0.5%) remained in the crosshairs — a bond-proxy sector in an environment where risk-free yields are still near multi-year highs. When yields are elevated, stable property trust income streams face stiff competition from government bonds, and capital has been draining from the sector accordingly. Lendlease (LLC) (-1.9%), GPT Group (GPT) (-1.1%), Dexus (DXS) (-1.1%), and Goodman Group (GMG) (-0.9%) were all lower.
Financials (XFJ) (-0.4%) split along sub-sector lines. Insurance stocks — which had recently benefited from rising bond yields lifting their fixed-income portfolio returns — appeared to give back some of those gains ahead of tonight's US Federal Open Market Committee meeting, an event that could materially reprice rate expectations in either direction. Suncorp (SUN) (-3.2%), Insurance Australia Group (IAG) (-2.5%), Medibank Private (MPL) (-1.5%), and NIB Holdings (NHF) (-1.4%) all fell.
The major banks were only modestly negative — Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (-0.6%) and National Australia Bank (NAB) (-0.5%) edged lower while the other two majors were broadly flat — a notable underperformance relative to the broader market's strength.
%20intraday%20chart_16%20Sep.png)
S&P/ASX 200 Financials (XFJ) intraday chart
In other commodities moves, GFEX lithium carbonate futures in China fell 2.6% to CNY 125,820/t — their lowest close of the entire calendar year — in what is shaping up as one of the worst months on record for the commodity.
Lithium Carbonate Futures (Benchmark month, back-adjusted) GFEX chart. Source: SMM, Capolingua
Local lithium stocks showed signs of selling fatigue however, with declines considerably more modest than the commodity price signal alone would have suggested. Elevra Lithium (ELV) (-2.7%), Liontown Resources (LTR) (-1.9%), IGO (IGO) (-1.7%), and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-0.2%) were lower, while Core Lithium (CXO) (+2.8%) and Wildcat Resources (WC8) (+1.5%) actually logged gains — a potential early signal that the relentless selling pressure in the sector may be starting to exhaust itself.
Today's best ASX Top 300 gainers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pantoro Gold (PNR) | $2.82 | +$0.24 | +9.3% | +16.5% | -46.0% |
| St Barbara (SBM) | $0.86 | +$0.065 | +8.2% | +47.0% | +81.1% |
| EQ Resources (EQR) | $0.465 | +$0.035 | +8.1% | +50.0% | +1450.0% |
| Codan (CDA) | $48.94 | +$3.42 | +7.5% | +8.9% | +60.6% |
| BCI Minerals (BCI) | $0.575 | +$0.04 | +7.5% | +22.3% | +59.7% |
| Ryman Healthcare (RYM) | $1.65 | +$0.11 | +7.1% | -3.5% | -27.6% |
| Alkane Resources (ALK) | $1.92 | +$0.09 | +4.9% | +25.1% | +89.2% |
| Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) | $5.36 | +$0.24 | +4.7% | +12.1% | +82.9% |
| Bellevue Gold (BGL) | $1.58 | +$0.065 | +4.3% | +6.0% | +56.4% |
| Forrestania Resources (FRS) | $0.38 | +$0.015 | +4.1% | -1.3% | +85.4% |
| Austal (ASB) | $4.34 | +$0.17 | +4.1% | -0.5% | -45.0% |
| L1 Gold Fund (LGF) | $2.33 | +$0.09 | +4.0% | +7.7% | +16.7% |
| Centuria Capital Group (CNI) | $1.325 | +$0.05 | +3.9% | -11.7% | -42.5% |
| Infratil (IFT) | $11.32 | +$0.39 | +3.6% | -9.8% | +1.6% |
| Tasmea (TEA) | $9.01 | +$0.31 | +3.6% | -5.0% | +85.8% |
| Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC) | $4.48 | +$0.15 | +3.5% | +22.1% | +6.4% |
| Beach Energy (BPT) | $0.90 | +$0.03 | +3.4% | +4.0% | -24.7% |
| Viva Energy Group (VEA) | $3.15 | +$0.10 | +3.3% | +14.1% | +56.7% |
| West African Resources (WAF) | $3.80 | +$0.12 | +3.3% | +12.1% | +25.0% |
| Cuscal (CCL) | $5.75 | +$0.18 | +3.2% | +5.7% | +47.8% |
Today's worst ASX Top 300 losers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) | $17.33 | -$1.15 | -6.2% | -1.7% | +298.4% |
| Life360 Inc (360) | $19.40 | -$1.12 | -5.5% | -17.6% | -62.1% |
| 4DMedical (4DX) | $3.54 | -$0.20 | -5.3% | -2.7% | +102.9% |
| James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX) | $37.30 | -$2.06 | -5.2% | -14.9% | +24.6% |
| Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) | $16.87 | -$0.88 | -5.0% | +0.8% | +19.6% |
| Endeavour Group (EDV) | $3.00 | -$0.12 | -3.8% | -16.0% | -18.7% |
| Suncorp Group (SUN) | $19.16 | -$0.64 | -3.2% | -2.7% | -8.5% |
| SEEK (SEK) | $12.03 | -$0.40 | -3.2% | -20.8% | -58.0% |
| Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) | $0.165 | -$0.005 | -2.9% | -23.3% | -10.8% |
| GQG Partners Inc. (GQG) | $1.05 | -$0.03 | -2.8% | -27.3% | -38.6% |
| L1 Global Long Short Fund (GLS) | $1.995 | -$0.055 | -2.7% | -2.7% | +34.7% |
| Elevra Lithium (ELV) | $6.54 | -$0.18 | -2.7% | -28.9% | +94.1% |
| Insurance Australia Group (IAG) | $8.04 | -$0.21 | -2.5% | -1.2% | -6.7% |
| Wisetech Global (WTC) | $32.27 | -$0.78 | -2.4% | -25.6% | -66.4% |
| Catapult Sports (CAT) | $2.91 | -$0.07 | -2.3% | -22.0% | -56.7% |
| Spark New Zealand (SPK) | $1.63 | -$0.035 | -2.1% | +1.2% | -22.4% |
| Orora (ORA) | $1.40 | -$0.03 | -2.1% | -7.0% | -34.6% |
| SKS Technologies Group (SKS) | $7.56 | -$0.15 | -1.9% | -20.4% | +119.8% |
| Liontown (LTR) | $1.02 | -$0.02 | -1.9% | -20.0% | +17.2% |
| Qantas Airways (QAN) | $8.70 | -$0.17 | -1.9% | -13.0% | -21.3% |
Chartwatch
Nasdaq Composite Index
Nasdaq Composite Index chart
Analysis
No surprise with respect to last night’s candle. Now, you could say: “But Carl, Monday’s candle was solid, you said so yourself… it is a surprise then that Tuesday’s wasn’t. Look. Black bodied candle, closed below the last trough.”
Yes, but you’re forgetting the important bit: we’re in a choppy market. Chop-chop-chop!!! 🪓🪓🪓
We totally expect to get a good candle and then a bad one! It's 50-50 tonight. No candle would surprise me now.
And that’s just the way it is... And it’s why I’ve pulled back on risk. 🛡️
But more on the Comp’s technical analysis and our Analysis, Accept, and Act in today’s webinar… Recording below 👇
View
1/2RP. (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%).
Key Levels
26701-863 is the closest key point of supply vs 25910 as the closest key point of demand, and then the long term trend ribbon (presently 24307-25187).
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)
%20chart_16%20Sep.png)
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) chart
Analysis
Could have been worse... but to give us any real hope that the demand side is looking to make a stand here: should have been far better! 🫤
Again, full analysis in the webinar recording...
View
8935-40 is likely to now act as a zone of supply, but the short term trend ribbon (presently 8987-8993) is most likely the biggest barrier the OTP will have to contend with on the way back up. 8708-8656 is the next key zone of demand.
(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position | FFS: Fund Flow Shenanigans!)
***CHARTWATCH LIVE WEBINARS — NEW VIDEO DROPPED!!! 📺🍿***
How to protect your portfolio in a "Market Meltdown". This expert is in cash and is taking a vacation! 🏖️
ChartWatch LIVE Webinars – WEEKLY Wednesday's @ 12pm AEDT
Learn more about technical analysis and trend following through real case studies on ASX stocks. Australia's premier technical analyst, Carl Capolingua, shares his unique insights on stocks as requested by viewers. Ask about a company in your portfolio or anything related to trading and investing and get Carl's expert opinion.
Places are limited so >REGISTER NOW!<
Economy
TODAY
No major economic data releases in our time zone today...
LATER THIS WEEK
WEDNESDAY
22:30 USA August Core Retail Sales (+0.5% m/m forecast vs -0.3% m/m previous)
THURSDAY
04:00 USA FOMC Meeting
Federal Funds Rate: +0.25% p.a. forecast to 3.75% to 4.0% p.a.
FOMC Statement & Economic Projections
Kevin Warsh press conference at 04:30
22:30 USA August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (28.9 forecast vs 47.4 in August)
FRIDAY
09:30 Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Rate (+0.25% p.a. forecast to 1.25% to 1.0% p.a.)
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
- Vysarn (VYS) $0.84+11.3%
ASX filing today showed that founding director Peter Hutchinson purchased a further 622,017 shares in the company worth $502,748 in on market transactions on 15 September. 💰
- Metal Powder Works (MPW) $1.65+10.4%
ASX filling showed that Curraweena Investment Trust has become a substantial shareholder in the company with a 5.06% stake.
- American Tungsten and Antimony (AT4) $0.06+9.4%
Announced today that commencement of the restart of the leach and electrowinning circuit at the Del Sol Hydromet Refinery Nevada, USA. The circuit has commenced processing material from the White Spar Antimony Mine in Arizona. Assaying will be undertaken with third-party laboratory verification scheduled to be performed.
- St Barbara (SBM) $0.87+9.4%
No news. Performance reflected general strength in the broader gold sector, but note that today's up-move continues that started on 10-Sep after the announcement of the Simberi Interest sale.
- Pantoro Gold (PNR) $2.82+9.3%
Also benefited from a broadly stronger gold sector, but also announced what management described as "significant" extensions to the high-grade mineralisation at the company's Racetrack Discovery prospect. Significant new intercepts included: 11.12 m @ 5.48 g/t from 488.6 m and 2.0 m @ 24.11 g/t Au from 236.66 m.
- Mastermyne Group (MYE) $0.78+8.3%
No news. MYE is a regular in the ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends List. 📈
- Codan (CDA) $48.64+6.8%
No news. Performance reflected general strength in the broader gold sector. CDA is a regular in the ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends List. 📈
- Tungsten Mining NL (TGN) $0.40+5.3%
Announce that it has completed a metallurgical testwork campaign that confirmed the ability to produce a +50% or +65% WO3 product from the company's Watershed tungsten project. in QLD. Also announced that preparations for its proposed
secondary listing on the Nasdaq are "progressing well", with the TGN targeting Q4 2026. TGN is a regular in the ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends List. 📈 - Silver Mines (SVL) $0.16+5.0%
Updated the market on the approvals process at the company's Bowdens Silver Project in NSW.
- Meeka Metals (MEK) $0.13+4.2%
Announced an initial 270k oz resource at the company's Mt Holland project in WA.
Trading Lower
- Alurion Resources (ALU) $0.51-5.6%
No news. ALU is a regular in the ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends List. 📉
- Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ) $0.55-3.5%
Announced that the retail component of its accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer at a price of $0.70 had closed. The company had received applications from a total of 113 eligible retail shareholders who subscribed for 909,226 of the 9,915,132 shares available. Which is a bit weird they got even that much... given AQZ closed at $0.58 on Friday... 🤔
Broker Moves
Company | Broker | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ANZANZ Group Holdings | Citi | Retained | Buy | $39.25 |
AUBAUB Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $34.80 |
BGABega Cheese | Morgans | Retained | Hold | $7.05 |
BGDBarton Gold Holdings | Canaccord Genuity | Retained | Speculative Buy | $2.05 |
CATCatapult Sports | Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $4.10(from $3.97) |
CSLCSL | Ord Minnett | Upgraded | Accumulate(from Hold) | $180.00(from $168.00) |
DMPDomino's Pizza Enterprises | UBS | Retained | Buy | $22.00 |
EMREmerald Resources NL | Canaccord Genuity | Downgraded | Hold(from Buy) | $6.90 |
EVNEvolution Mining | Barrenjoey | Retained | Overweight | $16.00 |
GWAGWA Group | Macquarie | Retained | Neutral | $2.30 |
GYGGuzman Y Gomez | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $29.00 |
IAGInsurance Australia Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $8.80 |
JHXJames Hardie Industries Plc | Citi | Retained | Buy | $42.60 |
| Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $47.10 | |
| Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $48.00 | |
LMGLatrobe Magnesium | Shaw and Partners | Retained | Buy | $0.06 |
LOVLovisa Holdings | Bell Potter | Upgraded | Buy(from Hold) | $27.00 |
MP1Megaport | Citi | Retained | Buy | $24.60 |
MPKMany Peaks Minerals | Ord Minnett | Initiated | Buy | $1.60 |
MPLMedibank Private | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $5.00 |
NEMNewmont Corporation | UBS | Retained | Buy | $210.00 |
NHCNew Hope Corporation | Barrenjoey | Retained | Neutral | $5.10(from $5.20) |
| Morgans | Retained | Hold | $6.05(from $5.45) | |
| Ord Minnett | Downgraded | Lighten(from Hold) | $5.10(from $5.20) | |
NHFNIB Holdings | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $7.15 |
NICNickel Industries | Barrenjoey | Retained | Overweight | $1.80 |
| Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $1.80 | |
NUFNufarm | Morgans | Retained | Buy | $4.15 |
NUZNeurizon Therapeutics | Morgans | Retained | Speculative Buy | $0.20 |
NWLNetwealth Group | Bell Potter | Retained | Buy | $30.00(from $30.50) |
| Citi | Retained | Buy | $28.50(from $28.80) | |
| Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $27.00(from $30.25) | |
| Ord Minnett | Upgraded | Buy(from Accumulate) | $25.00(from $24.00) | |
PVTPivotal Metals | Morgans | Initiated | Speculative Buy | $0.03 |
REHReece | Macquarie | Retained | Underperform | $15.20 |
RWCReliance Worldwide Corporation | Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $4.75 |
S32South32 | Barrenjoey | Retained | Overweight | $5.70 |
SGHSGH | Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $46.40 |
SUNSuncorp Group | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $19.80 |
TCGTuraco Gold | Canaccord Genuity | Retained | Speculative Buy | $1.35 |
| Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $1.00 | |
TLCThe Lottery Corporation | Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $5.90 |
TLXTelix Pharmaceuticals | UBS | Retained | Buy | $22.00(from $31.00) |
TREToubani Resources Inc | Canaccord Genuity | Retained | Speculative Buy | $1.25 |
TWETreasury Wine Estates | Citi | Retained | Buy | $6.95 |
UNIUniversal Store Holdings | UBS | Retained | Buy | $9.25 |
WBCWestpac Banking Corporation | UBS | Retained | Buy | $45.00 |
WLCWhiteRock Lithium Corp. | Canaccord Genuity | Retained | Speculative Buy | $7.00(from $6.25) |
Scans
Top Gainers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| VTA | Vita Resources NL | $0.021 | +31.25% |
| VKA | Viking Mines Ltd | $0.011 | +22.22% |
| WCN | White Cliff Minerals Ltd | $0.023 | +21.05% |
| A8G | Australasian Metals Ltd | $0.21 | +20.00% |
| ABE | Australian Bond Exchange Holdings Ltd | $0.037 | +19.36% |
Top Fallers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| KFM | Kingfisher Mining Ltd | $0.061 | -21.80% |
| PFT | Pure Foods Tasmania Ltd | $0.018 | -21.74% |
| DTZ | DOTZ Nano Ltd | $0.026 | -18.75% |
| TZN | Terramin Australia Ltd | $0.019 | -17.39% |
| LRM | Lion Rock Minerals Ltd | $0.018 | -16.28% |
52 Week Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| A8G | Australasian Metals Ltd | $0.21 | +20.00% |
| KLI | Killi Resources Ltd | $0.325 | +16.07% |
| MYE | Mastermyne Group Ltd | $0.78 | +8.33% |
| EQR | EQ Resources Ltd | $0.465 | +8.14% |
| CTQ | Careteq Ltd | $0.015 | +7.14% |
52 Week Lows
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| KFM | Kingfisher Mining Ltd | $0.061 | -21.80% |
| BRY | Barys Resources Ltd | $0.011 | -15.39% |
| TRM | Truscott Mining Corporation Ltd | $0.04 | -9.09% |
| AZ9 | Azzuro Resources Plc | $0.013 | -7.14% |
| BNR | Bulletin Resources Ltd | $0.026 | -7.14% |
Near Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLB | Stelar Metals Ltd | $0.32 | +25.49% |
| BEAR | Betashares Australian Equities Bear Complex ETF | $7.52 | +0.67% |
| RHC | Ramsay Health Care Ltd | $53.57 | +1.23% |
| AN3PI | Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd | $102.00 | +0.20% |
| PCI | Perpetual Credit Income Trust | $1.10 | -0.45% |
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| WLE | Wam Leaders Ltd | $1.28 | +0.39% |
| WES | Wesfarmers Ltd | $72.83 | +0.36% |
| NWL | Netwealth Group Ltd | $18.77 | -0.37% |
| KSL | Kina Securities Ltd | $1.075 | -0.46% |
| FLT | Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd | $10.87 | +0.65% |
