Evening Wrap: ASX 200 sneaks gain as stronger gold, iron ore, and lithium stocks offset sagging BEN, CBA

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 11.9 points higher, up 0.14%.

The ASX 200 wasn't able to back up its +100 point rebound yesterday, but it did manage to modestly add to those gains after a topsy-turvy session.

Gold stocks were outstanding (Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+3.4%)) – despite not a great deal happening in the gold and silver prices – with smalls Ora Banda Mining (OBM) (+9.8%), Focus Minerals (FML) (+9.0%), and Meeka Metals (MEK) (+8.9%) faring best, but with bigs Newmont Corp. (NEM) (+4.6%), Westgold Resources (WGX) (+4.6%), and Evolution Mining (EVN) (+3.5%) not too far behind.

Resources (XJR) (+1.6%) more generally were pretty good, also, as the iron ore majors were bolstered by a stronger iron ore price in Asia today (Champion Iron (CIA) (+4.2%), Fortescue (FMG) (+2.7%), and Rio Tinto (RIO) (+2.3%)). Lithium stocks bounced back from yesterday's heavy losses (Wildcat Resources (WC8) (+8.2%), Core Lithium (CXO) (+7.5%), and Galan Lithium (GLN) (+6.8%)), as critical minerals stocks were in broad demand.

Not faring so well, the big banks and insurance companies, as the Financials (XFJ) (-0.7%) sector sagged – Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) (-7.4%) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) (-1.2%) were among the worst there.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 11.9 points higher at 8,537.0, roughly at the mid-point of the session's range – 0.36% from its session low and 0.42% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a modest 169 to 106.

Stock Specific: Um... 🤔

Just highlighting a couple of broker rec's here from the Broker Moves section below. Supplementing them with a chart. No comment from me, just providing factual information...

Accent Group (ASX: AX1)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.80

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.08 from $1.83

Accent Group (ASX: AX1) chart

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

We had our bounce yesterday – i.e., we reacted to strong US futures through the day (i.e., we led Monday’s candle on the Comp – not followed it!). US futures were largely flat today (down 0.1% at the time of writing), hence our more subdued performance.

Hey – did you think we were ever going to take a leap out into the wild wilderness of risk on our own!? 🤦

In yesterday's update, I noted that in my experience, a quick and large bounces is the most likely lead to a sustained reversal an entrenched pullback. Today was a missed opportunity to build on yesterday's promising start in that regard.

Instead, we tickled the dynamic supply that sits within the long term trend ribbon – now joining with the short term downtrend ribbon to create a “mega” supply zone which must be overcome if the ASX 200’s bull market is still intact.

The candles and price action in this zone (in total, presently 8540-8745) will be crucial:

• Demand-side is taking back control:

  • Demand-side candles (i.e., white-bodied and or downward pointing shadows)

  • Setting of a higher trough and or eventually a higher peak

  • Close above the long term and or short term trend ribbon

• Supply-side is reinforcing its control:

  • Supply-side candles (i.e., black-bodied and or upward pointing shadows)

  • Setting of a peak(s), particularly lower peaks at or below the trend ribbons

  • Close below the 8383 point of demand = ⚠️🚨

View

I remain comfortable at 1/3RP 🪣. (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%). There is no change to my view because there is insufficient evidence in the technicals that the demand-side is back in control of the ASX 200’s price = I believe that the MOTN (More Often Than Not) still lies with lower and not higher prices in the near future.

Key levels

8383 is the closest point of demand. A close below this price would confirm the new long term downtrend (i.e., the bull market in ASX stocks is over! 🤯). The short and long term trend ribbons are the closest zone of supply (presently 8540-8745). In the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, the ASX 200 must close back above this zone to demonstrate the demand-side is back in control.

Have you read today's ChartWatch Markets on Iron Ore & ASX Iron Ore Miners BHP, CIA, FMG, & RIO? 🤔

Fortescue (ASX: FMG) chart from today's ChartWatch Markets article

My analysis on everything not the Old Tin Pot has moved to a dedicated series called ChartWatch Markets. You can read it weekdays except Wednesday (because I run the ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar on that day! 📺).

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Wednesday

• 00:30 USA October Core Producer Price Index (PPI)

• 00:30 USA October Core Retail Sales

• 02:00 USA October Pending Home Sales

• 11:30 AUS October Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Thursday

• 00:30 USA October Core Durable Goods Orders

• 00:30 USA September Quarter Preliminary Gross Domestic Product

Friday

• 10:50 AUS October Private Sector Credit

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +24.8% Metallium (MTM) – No news since 24-Nov MTM to Establish US ADR Program and Commence Nasdaq Listing, bounced perfectly from long-term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +14.6% Droneshield (DRO) – $5.2m European military contract, today’s move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +12.7% Ramsay Health Care (RHC) – 2025 AGM Chair and Managing Director Address & Presentation.

• +12.3% Lindian Resources (LIN) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends 🔎📈

• +11.0% Titan Minerals (TTM) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.0% Ausgold (AUC) – Becoming a substantial holder (T. Rowe Price Associates), general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +10.9% Horizon Minerals (HRZ) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +10.7% Iperionx (IPX) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +10.3% Sun Silver (SS1) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +9.8% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +9.4% AIC Mines (A1M) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +9.3% Winsome Resources (WR1) – High-Grade Intersection from Adina Infill Drilling, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +9.3% Web Travel Group (WEB) – Resignation of Chief Financial Officer and 1H26 Investor Presentation.

• +9.0% Focus Minerals (FML) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +8.9% Meeka Metals (MEK) – Managing Directors AGM Presentation, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +8.6% Southern Cross Gold Consolidated (SX2) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +8.6% Temple & Webster Group (TPW) – No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +8.2% Wildcat Resources (WC8) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +8.1% Unico Silver (USL) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +7.7% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) – FY25 Sustainability Report, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +7.5% Core Lithium (CXO) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

Trading lower

• –9.5% Fleetwood (FWD) – Departure of Managing Director & CEO.

• –8.3% Felix Gold (FXG) – Shallow High-Grade Gold Results and Treasure Creek.

• –7.4% Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) – Deficiencies in approach to ML & TF, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• –6.1% Iress (IRE) – Response to media speculation.

• –4.6% Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq-100 Complex ETF (SNAS) – No news, (short Nasdaq ETF).

• –4.6% Race Oncology (RAC) – No news since 24-Nov Race Oncology 2025 Chairs Address and AGM Presentation.

Broker Moves

APA Group (APA)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $7.70

Accent Group (AX1)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.80

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.08 from $1.83

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $11.00

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.50

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $42.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $48.00

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $45.00

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.11 from $1.10

Chrysos Corporation (C79)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.40 from $6.70

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.75 from $26.35

Echo IQ (EIQ)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.40

EROAD (ERD)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.50

FleetPartners Group (FPR)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.90

Gentrack Group (GTK)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $11.00 from $9.80

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.70

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $11.30 from $11.80

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $9.65 from $9.75

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.60

Kogan.com (KGN)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.30 from $4.30

Lindsay Australia (LAU)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.00

Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $33.50 from $42.00

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $40.00 from $44.50

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $0.50

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $15.55

Macmahon Holdings (MAH)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.65 from $0.50

Monash IVF Group (MVF)

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.90

• Retained at buy at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $1.02

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.25

Qube Holdings (QUB)

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $5.20 from $4.65

• Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.25

• Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.20 from $4.50

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.20 from $4.52

Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $37.10

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $36.00

Serko (SKO)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.00 from $5.98

Santana Minerals (SMI)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.63

Sunstone Metals (STM)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.07 from $0.05

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.50 from $1.00

Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.60

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $23.60

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.50

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $7.40

Scans