Morning Wrap: ASX futures rise as Google revives AI trade

ASX 200 futures are up 35pts (+0.41%) as of 9:00 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• The Buffett effect is in full force. Google jumped more than 6%, pulling U.S. markets higher. The Nasdaq rallied 2.69% - its best session since May - while Broadcom and Tesla surged 11% and nearly 7%. With confidence in AI returning, the ASX tech index in particular could get a lift today.

• But the rally was narrow. Tech once again stole the spotlight. The equal-weight S&P 500 rose just 0.42%, underscoring how concentrated the gains were.

• Watch ASX gold today. With gold higher overnight, and TSX-listed gold miner ETFs ripping over 6%, local gold stocks could see solid price action.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 stronger but finished off session highs (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending not far from best levels.

• Cap-weighted S&P 500 outpaced equal-weight by more than 100 bp amid strong performance for big tech; GOOGL, TSLA were the standouts.

• Treasuries were firmer with the curve flattening; yields down ~3-4 bp at the long end.

• Dollar index was flat.

• Gold finished up 0.4%.

• Bitcoin futures were up 5.3% after dropping in eight of the nine prior sessions.

• WTI crude settled up 1.3%, reversing earlier declines.

STOCKS

• Amazon's AWS says it will invest up to $50B to build and deploy AI infrastructure purpose-built for the US government (release)

• Novo Nordisk announced its trial to treat Alzheimer's disease with GLP-1 drugs failed to meet goal (CNBC)

• Apple announces it will eliminate dozens of roles as it streamlines its sales organization (Bloomberg)

CENTRAL BANKS

• SF Fed's Daly says she supports a cut next month due to a sudden deterioration in the labor market being more likely than an inflation flare-up (link)

• Fed Governor Waller says he supports December rate cut, but January decision more uncertain (Reuters)

• Fed's SRF being tested as a tool to calm short-term funding markets, but some banks reluctant to use it (link)

• ECB's Lagarde says Europe jeopardizing its own future by missing AI boat (Reuters)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• Russian official says European-modified Ukraine peace plan "doesn't fit us at all," prefers initial Trump plan (Politico)

• Trump, China's Xi spoke this morning on trade, Taiwan, and Ukraine; Trump accepts invite to visit Beijing in April (AP, Axios)

ECONOMY

• National Retail Federation predicts record Black Friday shopper turnout, though sales growth expected to slow (Reuters)

• Deloitte survey says consumers planning to spend 4% less this year on Black Friday (CNBC)

• NABE survey suggests expectations for slight growth, sticky inflation, and slight job gains for 2026 (Reuters, report)

• Fewer global companies signaled price hikes during Q3 (Reuters)

ASX TODAY

• Web Travel Group will post it 1H26 report

• Star Entertainment will hold its annual general meeting in Brisbane in the morning

• Fleetwood shares will be worth watching after the company announced CEO Bruce Nicholson will depart effective immediately

• SRG Global secures A$650M of contracts with blue-chip clients across Australia and NZ

WHAT TO WATCH

• The focus will be on tomorrow's monthly consumer price index report, which has now been made the official CPI (previously, the onus was on the quarterly figures).

• The ABC reports SEEK job ad volumes declined this month, down 0.4% in October, suggesting further slowing in the Australian jobs market

BROKER MOVES

• Qube Holdings (QUB) downgraded to HOLD from Buy by Ord Minnett; target increased, however, to $5.20 from $4.52

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• 25 November: Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) – $0.49; Elders (ELD) – $0.18; Embark Early Education (EVO) – $0.015; Newmont Corporation (NEM) – $0.27

• 26 November: Als (ALQ) – $0.194; Graincorp (GNC) – $0.24; Infratil (IFT) – $0.059 

• 27 November: Amcor (AMC) – $0.198; Technology One (TNE) – $0.30; Webjet Group (WJL) – $0.02

Economic calendar (AEDT):

United States - Expect a barrage of key economic data out of the U.S. overnight including retail sales, producer price index (PPI), and home prices