Evening Wrap: ASX 200 bounces 108 points as bargain hunters scoop up beaten down tech, real estate and healthcare stocks

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 108.6 points higher, up 1.29%.

If you feel like your portfolio is in a washing machine at the moment, you're probably not alone! Stocks have logged their third 100-plus move in three sessions – in the order of up, down, up.

Today's gain was spurred by a modest improvement in US shares on Friday, as a Fed official calmed the market's nerves by hinting there are potentially more rate cuts to come.

Locally, stocks that tend to do well under lower interest rate conditions were sought after most, particularly in high P/E ratio sectors like Information Technology (XIJ) (+2.4%), Health Care (XHJ) (+2.0%) and Communication Services (XTJ) (+1.6%) – but also bond proxy sectors like Real Estate (XPJ) (+2.1%) and Utilities (XUJ) (+2.0%).

Sector performances fell away quickly from there... with a mixed bag in Resources (XJR) (+0.8%) as lithium stocks came under heavy selling pressure (lower benchmark lithium futures prices in China Friday and today), and the Energy (XEJ) (-0.3%) taking the dubious honour as the only major ASX sector to lose ground today.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 108.6 points higher at 8,525.1, 1.29% from its session low and just 0.02% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by an emphatic 249 to 37.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

The zebra is back!!! 🦓

Big ⬜ + Big ⬛ + Big ⬜

= Trend follower’s worst nightmare 😱

Scalpers love this sort of market… I hate it.

My model has one flaw: It does best in low volatility up or down trends!

There’s an old saying: When markets get choppy, trend traders get chopped up! 🪓🪓🪓

Which is exactly why I have a risk management model that's designed to keep me at minimum risk exposure / maximum cash during exactly such times.

But as any trend following model reacts to price action – there must be a lag in moving to greater risk during a market recovery and a lag in moving to lesser risk during a market downturn.

So, if the ASX 200, aka The “Old Tin Pot” decides today’s the first day of its crusade to regain its moniker as the “Golden Le Creuset”, then we'll be lagging behind in terms of getting risk back in. Having said this, it will depend on the technical signals we get / how quickly we get them:

1. Short and long term trend ribbons: ⬆️ / ⬆️, widening (getting stronger), the price is above both ribbons and both ribbons are acting as a zone of dynamic excess demand

2. Price action: Rising peaks and rising troughs (i.e., supply removal and demand reinforcement)

3. Candles: Demand-side candles (i.e., white-bodied candles and or downward pointing shadows)

Until then, i.e., given the prevailing technicals are the opposite of the above on each point above – them I remain comfortable at my present risk settings.

Friday’s low of 8383 will serve as the next go-no-go point for this rally (assuming today’s strong showing becomes a plural!!!).

Looking up, clearly, the long term trend ribbon is going to be the main game in the near future. You know my model – it anticipates the long term trend ribbon will MOTN (More Often Than Not) act as a zone of dynamic supply. In practical terms, this means that it may impede upwards price action.

Clearly then, a close above the long term trend ribbon, presently 8545-8680, will be the next critical step in terms of re-establishing demand-side control. The short term trend ribbon, presently 8715-8775, isn't far behind it – another hurdle for another time.

And that’s the point here: There are many points and zones of potential supply all the way back up to 9116.

The only way to deal with them is to deal with them! I.e., the demand-side must consume them. I.e., there must be sufficient cash + motivation to apply that cash at increasingly higher prices to remove the overhang of stock waiting at those levels.

As I always say here: A quick bounce is a good bounce. The longer it takes for the Old Tin Pot to overcome each point/zone of supply, the more likely this pullback becomes entrenched in the demand-supply environment’s psyche = the more it kills the two critical driving forces of bull markets – Fear Of Missing Out "FOMO" and Hold On for Further Upside "HOFU"! ⚠️🚨

View

I remain comfortable at 1/3RP 🪣. (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%).

Key levels

8284 is the closest point of demand. The long term uptrend ribbon is the closest zone of supply (presently 8545-8680). In the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, the ASX 200 must close back above this point to demonstrate the demand-side is moving back into control.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Tuesday

• No major economic data releases scheduled

Wednesday

• 00:30 USA October Core Producer Price Index (PPI)

• 00:30 USA October Core Retail Sales

• 02:00 USA October Pending Home Sales

• 11:30 AUS October Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Thursday

• 00:30 USA October Core Durable Goods Orders

• 00:30 USA September Quarter Preliminary Gross Domestic Product

Friday

• 10:50 AUS October Private Sector Credit

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +44.3% Monash IVF Group (MVF) – Monash IVF rejects NBIO proposal to acquire MVF.

• +20.6% Gentrack Group (GTK) – FY25 Results - Investor Presentation.

• +19.4% Qube Holdings (QUB) –Process deed with MAM following indicative proposal.

• +12.7% Reece (REH) – Continued positive response to 21-Nov Q1FY26 Trading Update.

• +9.5% SKS Technologies Group (SKS) – Continued positive response to 20-Nov AGM 2025 Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +8.1% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – No news.

• +8.0% Iress (IRE) – Trading Halt, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +8.0% Sims (SGM) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.4% Superloop (SLC) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +7.1% Life360 (360) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

Trading lower

• –18.0% Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) – Update on FIRB condition and scheme.

• –11.9% Stakk (SKK) – No news since 20-Nov Stakk secures strategic partnership with Stride Bank.

• –9.8% Lake Resources (LKE) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, (lithium stocks responding to Friday’s sharp decline in benchmark lithium futures in China, lack of bounce today…).

• –9.1% Core Lithium (CXO) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• –8.7% Chrysos Corp. (C79) – 2025 AGM Presentation.

• –8.0% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• –6.5% Liontown Resources (LTR) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• –5.8% Wildcat Resources (WC8) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• –5.2% Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• –4.4% Accent Group (AX1) – Continued negative response to 21-Jan Trading Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• –4.4% Boss Energy (BOE) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• –4.3% Galan Lithium (GLN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• –3.6% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• –3.4% IGO (IGO) – Ceasing to be a substantial holder, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, (Schroder Investment Management).

• –3.2% Mineral Resources (MIN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• –3.0% Ioneer (INR) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

Broker Moves

The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.60 from $9.40

Autosports Group (ASG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.85 from $3.63

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.80 from $4.20

Accent Group (AX1)

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $1.15 from $1.70

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.80

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.65

• Downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.50

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.70

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $44.00

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.85

Brambles (BXB)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $25.65

CAR Group (CAR)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $46.50

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $23.40 from $21.35

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $0.19 from $0.26

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Initiated at buy at UBS; Price Target: $16.00

Dyno Nobel (DNL)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.55 from $3.35

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.40

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $1.90 from $2.00

Gorilla Gold Mines (GG8)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.00

Gentrack Group (GTK)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $11.80

Infratil (IFT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.34

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.50

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.00

Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $40.90 from $42.42

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $33.40 from $37.00

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $37.30 from $40.90

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $42.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.00 from $42.00

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $19.45

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $27.00 from $21.00

Megaport (MP1)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $17.00 from $16.50

Monash IVF Group (MVF)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.90 from $0.96

Oceania Healthcare (OCA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.04 from $0.99

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $8.60 from $8.90

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.40

Pro Medicus (PME)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $340.00

Qube Holdings (QUB)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.90

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.30

REA Group (REA)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $255.00

Reece (REH)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $12.40 from $13.10

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $12.64 from $12.88

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $11.00 from $10.25

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.00 from $10.10

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $14.50

Ridley Corporation (RIC)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $3.03 from $3.25

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $129.50

SEEK (SEK)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $31.00

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.45

Sims (SGM)

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $15.50 from $15.00

• Retained at underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $13.00 from $12.00

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $17.50 from $15.70

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.10 from $15.70

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $14.00

Technology One (TNE)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $38.70 from $44.50

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.55

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $100.00 from $127.50

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $89.00 from $125.60

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $130.00

Scans