Morning Wrap: ASX set for strong start amid off-again, on-again rally, BHP takes another shot at Anglo

ASX 200 futures are up 92pts (+1.09%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Volatility is set to continue early this week after US markets bounced on Friday night

• The only people who have made any money over the past three sessions are the brokers amid on, off, on-again trading frenzy

• BHP has made a renewed takeover approach to rival Anglo American, according to Reuters

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 stronger but finished off session highs (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks all closed higher on Friday night, up around 1% each. Every sector closed higher whilst small caps outperformed - Russell 2000 up 2.8%

• Bitcoin tumbled as much as 8% on Friday to $US80,553, deepening a sell-off that has erased nearly a quarter of its value month-to-date.

• Top five AI spenders have raised combined $108B in debt in 2025, raising worries about AI bubble, volatility and systemic risk (Bloomberg)

• Fed rate-cut doubts and AI exuberance spark expectations of choppy trading into year-end (Reuters)

• Experts argue AI leverage looks stable, but stock valuations are running too hot (Quartz)

• Retail investors swarm into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a fresh meme-style frenzy (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• Apple hardware chief John Ternus increasingly viewed as the leading contender to succeed Tim Cook  (Yahoo Finance)

• Microsoft’s push in enterprise AI runs into a crowded and competitive landscape (CNBC)

• Meta and Microsoft both seek federal clearance to engage in power-trading activities (TechCrunch)

• Sam Altman concedes to "rough vibes" and "economic headwinds" after Google’s latest AI leap (Economic Times)

• Walmart enters Africa with the opening of its first South African store (Reuters)

• Eli Lilly becomes the first pharmaceutical giant to surpass a $1 trillion valuation on surging weight-loss drug demand (Reuters)

• Waymo wins regulatory approval to broaden its robotaxi operations across the Bay Area and Southern California (TechCrunch)

• China’s state-run iron ore buyer expands restrictions on specific BHP shipments (Reuters)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Cleveland Fed's Paulson cautious about December rate cut with policy nearing point where it is no longer restrictive (Bloomberg)

• JPMorgan drops December rate-cut bet but still sees easing in January and April 2026 (Reuters)

• Fed's Collins still leaning against cutting rates in December amid persistent inflation (Reuters)

• Division at Fed has intensified in recent weeks ahead of December policy meeting (Bloomberg)

• ECB's Lagarde warns against seeing monetary policy as a solution to debt problems (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• Trump's administration is working on fallback options if Supreme Court strikes down tariff authorities (Yahoo Finance)

• Executives are starting to become more relaxed out about tariffs after a year of anxiety (link)

• Canada says it will resume US trade talks "when appropriate" (Reuters)

• US, Ukraine and European officials hold Geneva talks on Trump plan to end war in Ukraine (CNBC)

• US is poised to launch a new phase of Venezuela-related operations in the coming days (Yahoo)

• Japan to deploy missiles on island near Taiwan as tension rise with China (Japan Times)

• EU to take direct stakes in Australian critical minerals projects (Reuters)

• US ramping up pressure on Ukraine to accept peace plan, expect Zelensky to sign deal before Thanksgiving (FT)

ECONOMY

• Eurozone private-sector growth holds steady in November as services shine (Bloomberg)

• UK PMI shows economy barely growing (Bloomberg)

• UK retail sales records first drop since May, confidence deteriorates (Guardian)

• Japan export growth better than expected, decline in auto shipments narrows (CNBC)

• Japan manufacturing activity shrinks at a slower pace, output rises to four-month high (Reuters)

ASX TODAY

• AFR reports a PE bid for Monash IVF may be imminent after Genesis Capital bought a 6% stake at $0.80 per share on 21-Nov

• BHP has reportedly revived its bid for Anglo American, according to a source cited by Reuters, only months after Anglo moved ahead with a merger with Canada’s Teck Resources to form a major copper-focused group.

• The Australian reports Rio Tinto is advancing non-core asset sales, though finding a single buyer may be difficult, with its titanium-producing mineral sands unit flagged as the largest asset and Iluka seen as a possible suitor

• The Australian reports Agnico Eagle is monitoring Northern Star and the broader local market, though any move would depend on several factors

• Nine Entertainment denies any verbal deal to sell its radio assets to John Singleton for $25–30 million, with The Australian noting around a dozen interested parties

WHAT TO WATCH 

• The focus this week will be on Wednesday’s monthly consumer price index report, which has now been made the official CPI (previously, the onus was on the quarterly figures).

• Gold was little changed on Friday night, whilst US crude oil sank 1.7%. 

BROKER MOVES

• Accent Group (AX1) downgraded to HOLD from Buy by Morgans; target cut to $1.10 from $1.65

• Accent Group (AX1) downgraded to NEUTRAL from Buy by UBS; target cut to $1.10 from $1.70

• Accent Group (AX1) downgraded to NEUTRAL from Overweight by JPMorgan; target cut to $1.15 from $1.70

• Accent Group (AX1) downgraded to SECTOR PERFORM from Outperform by RBC Capital Markets; target cut to $1.20 from $1.50

• Accent Group (AX1) downgraded to UNDERWEIGHT from Overweight by Morgan Stanley; target cut to $0.95 from $1.80

• Deep Yellow (DYL) upgraded to OVERWEIGHT from Neutral by JPMorgan; target cut to $1.90 from $2.00

• Gorilla Gold Mines (GGM) initiated SPECULATIVE BUY by Canaccord Genuity; target set at $1.00 from $1.00

• Lovisa Holdings (LOV) upgraded to OUTPERFORM from Neutral by Macquarie; target cut to $37.30 from $40.90

• Paladin Energy (PDN) upgraded to OVERWEIGHT from Neutral by JPMorgan; target cut to $8.60 from $8.90

• Reece (REH) upgraded to NEUTRAL from Underperform by Macquarie; target raised to $11.00 from $10.10

• Reece (REH) upgraded to NEUTRAL from Underweight by JPMorgan; target raised to $11.00 from $10.25

• Sims (SGM) upgraded to OVERWEIGHT from Neutral by JPMorgan; target raised to $17.50 from $15.70

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• 24 November: EZZ Life Science (EZZ) – $0.02; Infomedia (IFM) – $0.029

• 25 November: Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) – $0.49; Elders (ELD) – $0.18; Embark Early Education (EVO) – $0.015; Newmont Corporation (NEM) – $0.27

• 26 November: Als (ALQ) – $0.194; Graincorp (GNC) – $0.24; Infratil (IFT) – $0.059 

• 27 November: Amcor (AMC) – $0.198; Technology One (TNE) – $0.30; Webjet Group (WJL) – $0.02

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN), Rand Mining (RND), TPG Telecom (TPG), Tribune Resources (TBR)

• Listing: Black Pearl Group (25/11), Sea Forest (26/11), Equus Energy (27/11), Black Horse Mining (28/11)

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: Integrated Research (IRI), Pro Medicus (PME)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

Germany - Ifo Business Confidence - 8:00 PM