Market Wraps

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slumps to worst week in 8 months as investors bail out on US interest rate uncertainty

Fri 20 Dec 24, 6:04pm (AEDT)

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Share article

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 101.2 points lower, down 1.24%.

For the week, the XJO finished down 229 points or 2.8% lower, 3.4% from its intraweek high and just 0.2% from its intraweek low. That was its worst weekly performance since April. Ouch!

It wasn't all doom and gloom today, at least. Unlike yesterday's comprehensive bashing, two major ASX sectors actually snuck in gains today – albeit both have a significant energy skew. Resources stocks, also, weren't terrible.

The rest? Well...Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on US Risk-free Bond Yields and the US Dollar Index in today's ChartWatch.

But before we do – What do you think will influence the ASX in 2025, and who will win big? Get first access to top picks, prediction, and exclusive expert insights for 2025, by having your say in Livewire’s Outlook Series Survey. How valuable are the results? Well, our readers’ stock picks delivered, big: +20% on ASX stocks, +25% on ETFs! Complete the quick survey.

Let's dive in!


Today in Review

Fri 20 Dec 24, 4:56pm (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 8,067.0 -1.24%
All Ords 8,317.1 -1.16%
Small Ords 3,039.2 -0.91%
All Tech 3,766.3 -0.74%
Emerging Companies 2,220.5 -0.42%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6225 -0.22%
US Futures
S&P 500 5,849.5 -0.33%
Dow Jones 42,265.0 -0.22%
Nasdaq 20,984.5 -0.61%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Utilities 8,882.8 +1.54%
Energy 8,292.8 +1.24%
Information Technology 2,713.1 +0.17%
Real Estate 3,779.5 -0.37%
Industrials 7,590.7 -0.44%
Materials 16,100.5 -0.55%
Consumer Staples 11,668.9 -0.61%
Health Care 44,367.4 -0.84%
Communication Services 1,625.0 -0.93%
Financials 8,463.1 -2.40%
Consumer Discretionary 3,845.1 -2.53%

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Markets

XJO Intraday Chart 20 December 2024
ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 101.2 points lower at 8,067.0, 1.25% from its session high and just 0.20% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a dismal 80 to 203.

For the week, the XJO finished down 229 points or 2.8% lower, 3.4% from its intraweek high and just 0.2% from its intraweek low. That was its worst weekly performance since April. Ouch!

It wasn't all doom and gloom today, at least. Unlike yesterday's comprehensive bashing, two major ASX sectors actually snuck in gains today – albeit both have a significant energy skew. Utilities (XUJ) (+1.5%) was the best, as old-reliables like AGL Energy (ASX: AGL) (+2.2%), APA Group (ASX: APA) (+1.4%), and Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) (+1.3%), each did well.

Ironically in such a bad close to the week, this year’s worst performing sector, Energy (XEJ) (+1.3%), also rebounded. It was aided by a nice pop in Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) (+1.9%) as investors processed yesterday’s news it had swapped some assets with Chevron to “simplify its portfolio and unlock long term value”. Uranium stocks were also generally higher – despite another dip in the uranium price overnight.

Resources (XJR) (-0.16%) were down, but it wasn’t a wholesale disaster…I suspect the plunge in the Australian dollar against the US dollar is helping there – check out today’s ChartWatch section below for more analysis on that item.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

$0.225

+$0.02

+9.8%

-15.1%

-70.6%

Karoon Energy (KAR)

$1.295

+$0.065

+5.3%

-4.4%

-36.2%

Black Cat Syndicate (BC8)

$0.600

+$0.03

+5.3%

-1.6%

+135.3%

Larvotto Resources (LRV)

$0.450

+$0.02

+4.7%

-23.1%

+508.1%

Iperionx (IPX)

$4.60

+$0.18

+4.1%

+9.5%

+268.0%

Chalice Mining (CHN)

$1.110

+$0.03

+2.8%

-18.4%

-36.8%

AGL Energy (AGL)

$10.98

+$0.24

+2.2%

+1.9%

+20.1%

Fortescue (FMG)

$18.20

+$0.35

+2.0%

+0.5%

-35.2%

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

$23.55

+$0.45

+1.9%

-3.9%

-24.1%

Deep Yellow (DYL)

$1.075

+$0.02

+1.9%

-9.7%

+9.1%

Beach Energy (BPT)

$1.355

+$0.025

+1.9%

+6.3%

-15.6%

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

$5.00

+$0.09

+1.8%

+5.5%

-1.8%

St Barbara (SBM)

$0.300

+$0.005

+1.7%

-14.3%

+53.8%

Ampol (ALD)

$27.07

+$0.42

+1.6%

-5.5%

-22.6%

APA Group (APA)

$7.15

+$0.1

+1.4%

+0.4%

-18.1%

WA1 Resources (WA1)

$13.60

+$0.19

+1.4%

-12.3%

+59.4%

Origin Energy (ORG)

$10.54

+$0.14

+1.3%

-2.4%

+27.3%

Stanmore Resources (SMR)

$2.98

+$0.03

+1.0%

-2.6%

-22.8%

Adriatic Metals (ADT)

$4.04

+$0.04

+1.0%

-4.3%

+20.6%

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

$0.650

+$0.005

+0.8%

-13.3%

+202.3%

Santos (STO)

$6.40

+$0.04

+0.6%

-5.9%

-16.1%

Boss Energy (BOE)

$2.28

+$0.01

+0.4%

-23.0%

-44.5%

Viva Energy Group (VEA)

$2.56

+$0.01

+0.4%

-1.9%

-23.8%

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

$3.74

+$0.01

+0.3%

+2.7%

-29.0%

The best performing stocks from today’s best performing ASX sectors

The rest. Well, the rest was the rest. I suggest that’s enough bad news for the week. It's moving well into the evening your time on Friday 20 December…so let’s just ⏭️ to the next bit! 🍷🍻

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

$1.105

-$0.065

-5.6%

-15.6%

-34.2%

Wesfarmers (WES)

$69.56

-$3.66

-5.0%

-0.2%

+25.3%

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

$2.50

-$0.12

-4.6%

-18.3%

+204.9%

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

$6.39

-$0.27

-4.1%

-2.3%

+40.4%

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

$12.77

-$0.51

-3.8%

-4.7%

+33.2%

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

$150.26

-$5.73

-3.7%

-3.8%

+35.9%

Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

$6.48

-$0.24

-3.6%

-4.8%

+7.8%

GQG Partners (GQG)

$2.17

-$0.08

-3.6%

+1.9%

+29.2%

Credit Corp Group (CCP)

$15.80

-$0.53

-3.2%

-9.7%

+0.5%

Nick Scali (NCK)

$14.77

-$0.48

-3.1%

+9.1%

+21.6%

Fleetpartners Group (FPR)

$2.83

-$0.09

-3.1%

-11.8%

-7.2%

Lovisa (LOV)

$29.00

-$0.88

-2.9%

+8.1%

+24.5%

De Grey Mining (DEG)

$1.740

-$0.05

-2.8%

+14.5%

+32.3%

Westgold Resources (WGX)

$2.89

-$0.08

-2.7%

+2.8%

+32.6%

Generation Development Group (GDG)

$3.68

-$0.1

-2.6%

-1.9%

+129.2%

Emerald Resources (EMR)

$3.39

-$0.09

-2.6%

-7.6%

+16.9%

The Star Entertainment Group (SGR)

$0.190

-$0.005

-2.6%

-9.5%

-64.5%

Judo Capital (JDO)

$1.785

-$0.045

-2.5%

-10.1%

+91.9%

Kogan.Com (KGN)

$5.99

-$0.15

-2.4%

+22.7%

+13.7%

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

$8.28

-$0.2

-2.4%

+1.3%

+46.5%

JB HI-FI (JBH)

$91.90

-$2.21

-2.3%

+3.6%

+80.1%

ANZ Group (ANZ)

$27.94

-$0.67

-2.3%

-13.4%

+9.0%

Macquarie Group (MQG)

$218.90

-$5.11

-2.3%

-4.6%

+20.7%

National Australia Bank (NAB)

$36.37

-$0.83

-2.2%

-7.9%

+19.8%

G8 Education (GEM)

$1.330

-$0.03

-2.2%

+3.5%

+17.7%

The worst performing stocks from today’s worst performing ASX sectors

ChartWatch

US 10 Year T-Bond Yield

US 10 Year T-Bond Yield chart 20 December 2024
A Christmas cracker!

I alluded to the massive disconnect between the new Federal Reserve December Economic Projections and what the market was expecting in yesterday's Evening Wrap. Here’s a couple of pictures to demonstrate just how much it put markets on the back-foot.

The first, above, of the US 10-year T-bond Yield, shows a steepening rise in one of the world’s key risk-free rate benchmarks. Pre-Fed, 4.38% vs post Fed 4.52%...and as bad as 4.595% last night.

Sure, the Fed cut rates by 0.25%, but the market took that on board and increased them by over 0.20%.

This recent rise in this chart undermines the stock market in several important ways…which I discuss in detail in a very pertinent article I wrote today about short selling.

In short: Stocks hate higher risk-free market yields. And that’s what they got this week.

We’re trend followers here in ChartWatch (I assume I have converted you as well!). So then, what do we think about this chart? What are the trends? Where is it most likely to go next?

And…extrapolating that out…what could it mean for stocks? 🤔

Using support and resistance in a yield chart is a bit pointless, but 4.74 will be interesting. We definitely don’t want to get above there 💥 .

Trend ribbons are more relevant in that they’re just giving us broader strokes as to general price direction. Ideally this one is trading back below the short term uptrend ribbon tout suite – or it’s probably going to get uglier for stocks.

US Dollar Index Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE

US Dollar Index Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE chart 20 December 2024
All hail King dollar!

Higher risk-free yields in the US means greater demand for the US dollar. That’s economics 101.

The market’s utter dismay over the Fed’s hawkish pivot this week is demonstrated in the massive jump in the US dollar index, which collates the relative performance of the US dollar against a basket of major global currencies. You will note (chart not shown) our own Aussie battler utterly dissolved against King Dollar this week.

Cancel that trip to the USA. I’m guessing that based on how your portfolio did this week there are now two reasons why you can’t afford it! 😭

A higher Greenback does create problems for the US economy, it makes the products and services of US companies far less competitive. That will likely have impacts on the US stock market. It does, however, help with inflation – and that will assist the Fed’s calculations.

For ASX-listed stocks, our exporters will be cheering developments here as most major commodities are priced in US dollars. Also, those companies that have substantial earnings in US dollars will be rubbing their hands in glee over the prospect of translating them back into zillions more Aussie pesos!


Economy

Today

  • CHN 1-yr & 5-yr Prime Rate

    • No change at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively as forecast

Later this week

Saturday

  • 00:30 Core PCE Price Index November (+0.2% m/m and 2.9% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m and 2.8% p.a. in October)

  • 00:30 Personal Income & Personal Spending November (+0.2% m/m and +0.4% m/m in October & +0.5% m/m and +0.4% m/m in October respectively)


Latest News


Interesting Movers

Trading higher

Trading lower


Broker Notes

  • Bega Cheese (BGA)

    • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.55 from $4.80

  • De Grey Mining (DEG)

    • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.20

  • Data#3 (DTL)

    • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.60 from $10.00

  • IGO (IGO)

    • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.70 from $5.30

  • James Hardie Industries (JHX)

    • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $56.00

  • Liontown Resources (LTR)

    • Upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.75

  • Mineral Resources (MIN)

    • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $35.00 from $33.00

  • Monash IVF Group (MVF)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.50

  • Nine Entertainment (NEC)

    • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.60 from $1.70

  • Paladin Energy (PDN)

    • Retained at Citi; Price Target: $13.50 from $11.50

    • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.50

  • Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

    • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.90

  • Patriot Battery Metals (PMT)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $0.50

    • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $0.60

  • Readytech (RDY)

    • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.97

  • South32 (S32)

    • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.90

  • Technology One (TNE)

    • Initiated at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $28.44

  • Vault Minerals (VAU)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.57

  • Veem (VEE)

    • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.90

  • Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

    • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $23.00

    • Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $29.50

    • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $26.25 from $26.80

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $27.00

    • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $27.50

    • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $34.00


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
LM1 Leeuwin Metals Ltd $0.10 +66.67%
QHL Quickstep Holding... $0.555 +40.51%
BEL Bentley Capital Ltd $0.014 +40.00%
IFG Infocus Group Hol... $0.024 +33.33%
VMT Vmoto Ltd $0.074 +32.14%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
CSS Clean Seas Seafoo... $0.094 -24.80%
PAM Pan Asia Metals Ltd $0.042 -20.76%
MSB Mesoblast Ltd $2.42 -20.66%
MDR Medadvisor Ltd $0.215 -20.37%
SCP Scalare Partners ... $0.165 -17.50%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
QHL Quickstep Holding... $0.555 +40.51%
BXN Bioxyne Ltd $0.023 +15.00%
ERG Eneco Refresh Ltd $0.024 +9.09%
SHG Singular Health G... $0.24 +9.09%
BTC BTC Health Ltd $0.077 +8.45%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
CSS Clean Seas Seafoo... $0.094 -24.80%
PAM Pan Asia Metals Ltd $0.042 -20.76%
SCP Scalare Partners ... $0.165 -17.50%
4DS 4DS Memory Ltd $0.05 -16.67%
8VI 8VI Holdings Ltd $0.04 -16.67%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
PCI Perpetual Credit ... $1.17 0.00%
WVOL Ishares MSCI Worl... $41.91 -0.43%
IPX Iperionx Ltd $4.60 +4.07%
GCI Gryphon Capital I... $2.05 -0.49%
VVLU Vanguard Global V... $73.02 -0.82%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
GRR Grange Resources Ltd $0.22 -2.22%
CUV Clinuvel Pharmace... $11.79 -1.26%
AUI Australian United... $10.18 -2.30%
SEK Seek Ltd $22.34 -4.57%
DUG DUG Technology Ltd $1.285 -1.91%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Carl Capolingua

Content Editor

Carl has over 30-year's investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.

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