Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slumps on inflation shocker, resources stocks rally as US government bets big on uranium

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 86.3 points lower, down 0.96%.

A substantially worse than expected set of inflation data sunk Aussie stocks today as investors factored out the possibility of further RBA interest rate cuts. Most sectors were lower, with the exception of gold and resources stocks, which bounced back nicely from recent heavy losses. Uranium stocks stole the show, however, as the sector received a massive boost from news the US government is increasing its investment in nuclear power production – Boss Energy (BOE) rose 20%.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 86.3 points lower at 8,926.2, 1.07% from its session high and just 0.05% from its low. smack–bang on its session low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 120 to 158.

Fund flows: Haves and have-nots...

Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+2.2%), Resources (XJR) (+1.2%), Energy (XEJ) (+0.5%), Utilities (XUJ) (+0.4%) – the four best performing sectors today. Decent performances on a down day too. Is it just a coincidence that Financials (XFJ) (-1.9%) was at the other end of the spectrum? After all, it feels like for much of this year if Resources is up, Financials is down, and vice-versa. Maybe.

Certainly, neither Financials, nor bond-proxy Real Estate (XPJ) (-1.7%), liked that nasty inflation data today. Fewer rate cuts (read as none at all) means the yields on key government bonds were sharply higher today – and this makes the yields on Financials and Real Estate look relatively less attractive. For Financials, there’s the double whammy of likely slower mortgage growth.

Australian Government 2-year Bond yield chart (click here for full size image)

As for Energy and Utilities, there's definitely a positive read through from the US government's decision to invest heavily in nuclear energy to shore up the USA's energy security. Uranium stocks went ballistic today, see Stock Specific below for the full list of performances.

Gold? A bounce – perhaps overdue? It's interesting that gold and silver prices weren't markedly higher overnight, but they did close well off their respective lows... we all know what that candle looks like – and more importantly what it means! 🧐

Health Care (XHJ) (-2.3%) was the worst performing sector – but that was largely due to "dip-keeps-dipping" CSL (CSL) (-4.0%). I note that Pro Medicus (PME) (-4.4%) also had a tough day (make sure you catch today’s ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar recording! 😉).

The haves and have-nots. Daily fund flows across the Old Tin Pot – we wouldn't have it any other way!

Stock Specific: Unanimous uranium

As mentioned above, and explained in greater detail here, it was a very good day for ASX uranium stocks indeed. And it couldn't have come at a better time for them, as with the exception of Silex Systems (SLX) (+4.7%), most had been savaged in the broader critical minerals pullback of the last week and a bit...

Boss Energy (BOE) (+19.8%) topped the sector performance list, possibly because it reported a clean sheet in its third quarter report today – but it still has plenty of work to do to reverse it's short and long term chart trends. Nexgen Energy (NXG) (+10.8%) and Silex Systems are the two best in the sector for me when it comes to strong short and long term uptrends.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

It just got a little too much for the Old Tin Pot today, didn’t it? As most major international stock indices rose overnight and across Asia today, it threw up its hands and slunk away to take have a little lie down. 😴

That lie down, aka, a black-bodied candle with close on the session’s low, has caused its price to close below the short term uptrend ribbon – which is never a good look when it comes to maintaining our confidence that the demand-side remains in control ⚠️.

As US stocks have grown stronger, ours have grown broadly weaker – a symptom of global fund flows simply overlooking us as a potential risk allocation option.

The question of whether we’ll be back on their radars any time soon is beyond the scope of ChartWatch… but what I can say is, right now, I’m struggling to justify retaining my present FRP stance. I note:

• Consistent with demand-side control = ✅

• Consistent with supply-side control = ⚠️

1. Falling peaks and falling troughs (the next trough to 8963 is not apparent, but as the price is below this point, when it does form – it must be below 8963) ⚠️

2. At best neutral on candles, but after today – clearly a shift towards a predominance of supply-side showings ⚠️

3. A close below the short term uptrend ribbon ⚠️

Versus good stuff / not so bad stuff:

1. The pullback so far, though the price action isn’t great – it’s pretty mild in terms of overall progress…

2. 8843 and 8731 are likely the main games in terms of critical points of demand – and they’re holding for now…

3. Long term uptrend remains impeccable… ✅

View: To cut to 2/3RP overall portfolio exposure or not? 🤔 Today’s volume (or lack thereof) points to malaise, not malice. I will probably regret this, but I’m going to give it one more day – so sticking with FRP (Full Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 100%). A close below 8843 is a deal breaker, as would be another clear supply-side control showing in Thursday’s candle.

Key levels: 8843 is also a key level that the price ideally should not cross; but ultimately, 8731 remains the critical go-no-go zone for the XJO bull market = ⚠️.

Economy

Today

• AUS September Consumer Price Index (CPI)

  • Headline: +1.3% q/q and +3.2% p.a. vs +1.1% q/q and +3.1% p.a. forecast and +0.7% q/q and +2.1% p.a. in the June quarter

  • Trimmed Mean: +1.0% q/q and 3.0% p.a. vs +0.8% q/q and +2.8% p.a. forecast and +0.6% q/q and +2.7% p.a. in the June quarter

  • Observations: Top end of the RBA's 2-3% target band... big jump in headline, but more modest increase in trimmed mean – but the chart above shows first blip up – so doesn't yet signal a trend! Still, not good news for the RBA or mortgage holders as it will clearly pare rate cut expectations, which prior to today, were still pegging one -0.25% move early next year.

  • Expert comments:

    • “Quite a material miss relative to the central bank’s expectations." — Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX & Macro Strategist – APAC at Convera

    • "The forecast 'miss' may look small by just looking at the figures (at 'only' 0.2 percentage points), but for inflation data, this constitutes a big miss." — Diana Mousina Deputy Chief Economist, AMP

Later this week

Thursday

• 05:00 USA Federal Reserve FOMC meeting & Press Conference

  • Fed Funds Rate: -0.25% to +4.00% forecast

Friday

• 00:00 USA September Core PCE Price Index

  • Personal Income: +0.4% m/m forecast vs +0.4% m/m in August

  • Personal Spending: +0.4% m/m vs +0.6% in August

• 12:30 CHN October Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

  • Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 forecast vs 49.8 om September

  • Non-Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 forecast vs 50.0 in September

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +28.8% Resolution Minerals (RML) - Significant Gold Discovery at Horse Heaven Project.

• +19.8% Boss Energy (BOE) - September 2025 Quarterly Results Presentation, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +16.7% Dateline Resources (DTR) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +16.7% Focus Minerals (FML) - Continued positive response to 28-Oct Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +15.0% Lumos Diagnostics Holdings (LDX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.9% VHM (VHM) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +14.3% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +13.6% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +13.3% Investigator Resources (IVR) - Webinar Shareholder Invitation - Q3 Activities and Outlook.

• +12.8% Aura Energy (AEE) - No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +12.7% Nick Scali (NCK) - Chair and MD 2025 AGM addresses with Trading Update.

• +12.5% Nanoveu (NVU) - EMASS Announces Collaboration with Arrow Electronics.

• +11.8% Almonty Industries (AII) - Almonty to Acquire Strategic U.S. Tungsten Project.

• +11.3% Paladin Energy (PDN) - No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +11.1% Elevate Uranium (EL8) - Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +10.8% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +10.7% Hastings Technology Metals (HAS) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +10.7% BetaShares Global Uranium ETF (URNM) - No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today (uranium stocks ETF).

• +8.7% Global X Uranium ETF (ATOM) - No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today (uranium stocks ETF).

Trading lower

• -20.0% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) - Commitments Received for A$475m Placement (price goes up… so what does management do… and at more than half the price of last week's peak!).

• -12.2% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today.

• -10.8% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - Continued negative response to 28-Oct Financial support transaction, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.7% Strike Energy (STX) - TEG Commences Legal Proceedings against Talon (L7) and Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.1% Objective Corp. (OCL) - No news 🤔.

• -7.9% Energy Transition Minerals (ETM) - Arbitration update.

• -7.1% Austal (ASB) - CEO Presentation 2025 AGM, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today.

• -5.6% Elsight (ELS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today.

Broker Moves

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.31 from $0.34

Alcidion Group (ALC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.13

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $79.00

Ansell (ANN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $33.50

Austal (ASB)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.86

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $61.90 from $67.10

AUB Group (AUB)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $45.00 from $38.85

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $40.20 from $38.20

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $42.00 from $38.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $45.00 from $39.00

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $42.17 from $36.67

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.60

Betmakers Technology Group (BET)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.26 from $0.27

Boab Metals (BML)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.77

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.10

Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.30

Breville Group (BRG)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $36.03

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $38.20

Big River Industries (BRI)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.60 from $1.65

Bathurst Resources (BRL)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.88 from $0.98

BlueScope Steel (BSL)

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $24.50 from $24.00

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $144.80

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.20

Computershare (CPU)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $33.30

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $195.00 from $230.00

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $230.00 from $265.00

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $287.14 from $304.17

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $285.00

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $249.51 from $293.83

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $235.00 from $258.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $189.00 from $280.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $275.00 from $300.00

DUG Technology (DUG)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $2.45

• Retained at speculative buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $3.10 from $3.20

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.82 from $2.89

Develop Global (DVP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.00 from $5.40

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.80

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.46

Elevra Lithium (ELV)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $9.50

EMvision Medical Devices (EMV)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.15

Hansen Technologies (HSN)

• Initiated at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.40

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.80

ikeGPS Group (IKE)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.14

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.30

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.10

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $40.00

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.00

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $173.00 from $176.00

Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $40.90

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.30 from $1.15

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $0.50

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $0.81

• Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $0.52

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.65

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $0.80

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.55

Metal Powder Works (MPW)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.10

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $226.00

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $42.50

Nick Scali (NCK)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $24.40

Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $25.00 from $22.00

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.85

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.35

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.85 from $0.80

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $23.30

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.80 from $5.25

• Upgraded to outperform from unknown at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.90

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.70

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $4.19 from $3.64

Resolute Mining (RSG)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.30

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.25

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.00

Sheffield Resources (SFX)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.11 from $0.10

Sims (SGM)

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $15.70 from $14.40

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.90

SHAPE Australia Corporation (SHA)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $6.10

Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $3.39

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.00

Syrah Resources (SYR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.70

Trajan Group Holdings (TRJ)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.25

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.50

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $6.50

Viva Energy Group (VEA)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.00

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $32.20

Westgold Resources (WGX)

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.45 from $6.35

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.40

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $5.80

Worley (WOR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.00

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $31.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $30.00

Scans