Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slides as investors bail before critical Fed rates meeting, coal and lithium stocks rally

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 59.2 points lower, down 0.67%.

Stronger energy and lithium stocks were not enough to ward off losses in most other sectors today. Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary names were the hardest hit as the world's attention turns to tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in New York. Will the Fed come through with the interest rate cuts the market so desires – or will it baulk at looming Trump tariff inflationary pressures!? There's plenty at stake! ⚠️

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P/ASX 200, and Uranium in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 59.2 points lower at 8,818.5, 0.67% from its session high and just 0.17% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by a dismal 86 to 184 – that's nearly an exact mirror image or yesterday's market breadth, by the way 🤦.

Why were we so mediocre today – after promising so much yesterday? Well, firstly, Old Tin Pot – remember!? And secondly, we're on the eve of one of the biggest risk events this year: Tonight's FOMC interest rate decision.

Check here if you haven't already read my assessment of what's at stake. It won't be the rate call, that's completely factored in: We will be getting a 0.25% cut from the Fed, rather, it's what's said in the statement and what chairman Powell says in the post-meeting press conference that will make or break the market's response.

Investors want more rate cuts (they always want more rate cuts), but they also want to be reassured that the Fed doesn't think the US economy is sliding into the toilet 🚽. We also don't want to hear Old JP talk about stuff like "inflationary pressures", or an "uncertain inflationary outlook". No siree Bob. Or in this case, Jerome...

Personally, I think he'll largely stick to the playbook. No Fed Chairman – since perhaps Alan "irrational exuberance" Greenspan (boy I lost a few bucks that day!) – wants to crash the stock market. But, there's definitely some uncertainty lingering here, and its understandable Aussie stocks reacted the way they did.

Best vs worst? 🤔

I note that Energy (XEJ) (+0.5%) and lithiums bounced today – both likely tracking favourable underlying commodity price moves. Coal prices in particular were sharply higher overnight, and that helped the likes of Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (+5.2%) and Yancoal (YAL) (+2.8%).

But one can't also help think that these two got a little leg up from New Hope Corporation's (NHC) (-8.3%) demise. It reported FY25 results that were clearly not up to the market's expectations. In a research note released late this afternoon, Macquarie warned of a "weakened earnings outlook" for the company.

Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (4.1%), IGO (IGO) (+1.9%), and Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR) (+3.5%) each gained as benchmark lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) in China logged their fifth-straight day of gains.

At the other end of the spectrum, perhaps not surprisingly given interest rates expectations are on the table, the so called "interest rate senstives" of Real Estate (XPJ) (-1.6%) and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-1.0%) led the losses.

Making less sense, were the beatings in the uranium and silver sectors. I couldn't find anything on the newswires as to why uranium stocks got belted today, simply that: What went up on the good news on Monday night in the US (i.e., Cameco and co.) went straight back down on Tuesday night in the US. So, local uraniums followed suit today 👎.

As for silver, well, the silver price did dip very slightly after notching that key point of supply we discussed in yesterday's ChartWatch, but nothing more than a smidge of a pullback. It certainly wasn't enough to justify the losses across the ASX silver sector today. But, that's not how Aussie precious metals stocks, work... is it? 😭

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq Composite Index chart (click here for full size image)

I won’t do the copy and paste for a second night – even though absolutely nothing has changed in the Comp’s techincals: ST & LT trends, price action, and candles are all combining to allow a very confident assessment of demand-side control.

“Very confident of demand-side control” = More Often Than Not (“MOTN”) the outcome is higher prices down the track.

Not forever and ever, amen. Just MOTN tomorrow’s candle (okay, and probably the next few after that) are up, and a better than not chance we’re up next week/next few weeks etc… because we can get silly about how far out we extrapolate. Clearly, the further out you want to go, the less certain any outcome is going to be.

The trend follower’s mantra is simply: What scenario matches with MOTN? Up? Okay, that’s how I’ll position myself of now. When things change, when the trend changes, I’ll position myself in a different manner as required.

Investing is that simple / complicated if you let it be.

We’ll see when the you know what hits the fan here – it will look like a bunch of big black candles, probably preceded by a bunch of upward pointing shadows. It will develop into lower peaks, then lower troughs, and then the challenging of the trend ribbons. Those trend ribbons will neutralise and change direction, and well, by then – our risk settings are long ago adjusted!

The critical thing to note is: We will see it.

This important fact, and our confidence in it – is what allows us to follow the trend and profit from the bull market. All the while every other smarty pants value investor out there is telling us not to because “it will all end in tears” 🧐.

They’re right. It probably will, at least that’s how every other bull market ended! But the worst thing you can do in a bull market – which is exactly what these smarty pants regret every miserable day of their lives the bull market keeps chugging on – is not to be invested.

So, I proceed as per the prevailing trends (⬆️/⬆️) = Stay the course, FRP (Full Risk Position).

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

We got a little excited over the last few sessions that the Old Tin Pot might shake off its September malaise and realign with July-August's record breaking heroics.

But, on the eve of one of the greatest risk events so far this year (i.e., tonight's FOMC meeting), it all got a little too much for the Old Tin Pot, which had to sit down, have a nice cup of tea, and put a blanket on its lap.

I'm not reading much into today's candle – yes, it's a modest supply-side showing (black-bodied) – but today was never going to be an emphatic and confident "stand our our own two feet moment", was it? 🤦

So scratch it. We'll put it down to pre-risk-event nerves. Let's regroup tomorrow, armed with whatever candle we've been given by the Comp (🤞), and then take it from there...

Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Delayed response, but the right response ✅ (click here for full size image)

As is sometimes the case, i.e., depending on the timing of the release of uranium market moving news pre-or-post COMEX trading – there can be a bit of a delay in the response in this chart.

But there it is, a very modest up-blip on the back of Monday's news that the US is continuing to pivot more and more towards nuclear energy production.

A modest up-blip, but one that I feel is important. It sets another higher trough (75.50), and importantly that trough is at/above the short term uptrend ribbon – i.e., this ribbon continues to act as a zone of dynamic excess demand.

The short term uptrend ribbon is growing in stature, and the price action shows a choppy-but-generally higher path – indicating a strong likelihood that the demand-side is in control of the short term price.

As for the long term trend, it's still line-ball, with the long term trend ribbon neutral (amber) – but now showing signs of convergence (i.e., potentially building towards a transition to uptrend).

There are several troughs logged above the long term trend ribbon, indicating it too is growing in stature as a zone of dynamic excess demand.

In conclusion: Uranium's short and long term trends are improving. Not red hot, but on the right track.

76.75 is the next point of supply to contend with, but the false-bull-market major point of supply at 79.45 is the main game. If we close above there – then it will very hard to argue that a new uranium bull market hasn't begun.

We don't want to see a close below the short term uptrend ribbon – that's a short term uptrend killer. Nor do we want to see a close below the long term uptrend ribbon – that's a recipe for a return to long term uranium dormancy!

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Wednesday

• 22:30 USA Building Permits & Housing Starts August

  • BP's: 1.37 million forecast vs 1.35 million in July

  • HS's: 1.36 million forecast vs 1.43 million in July

Thursday

• 04:00 ***USA Federal Reserve FOMC meeting***

  • Federal Funds Rate: -0.25% to 4%-4.25% forecast

  • FOMC Economic Projections

  • FOMC Press Conference (at 04:30)

• 11:30 AUS Employment Data August

  • Employment Change: +21,200 m/m forecast vs +24,500 m/m in July

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.2% forecast vs 4.2% in July

• 21:00 UK Bank of England Monetary Official Bank Rate & Monetary Policy Summary

Friday

• TBA JPN BOJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, Press Conference

  • Policy Rate: no change to present <0.50% forecast

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +15.9% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) - Continued positive response to 16-Sep Letter of Interest from U.S. EXIM, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +13.5% Silex Systems (SLX) - GLE Completes Large-Scale Enrichment Demonstration Testing.

• +12.9% G50 Corp (G50) - Annual Report to shareholders, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.2% Race Oncology (RAC) - Hong Kong Investor Lunch Briefing Details, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list yesterday 🔎📈

• +11.5% St George Mining (SGQ) - Major REE and Niobium Discovery 1km East of MRE at Araxa, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.5% Sayona Mining (SYA) - No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +10.5% Gorilla Gold Mines (GG8) - Resources Rising Stars Investor Presentation.

• +9.9% Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE) - Sulista Results Confirm a New High-Grade Rare Earth District, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.8% Forrestania Resources (FRS) - Forrestania Resources - Expands Tenure at Forrestania, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.6% Dateline Resources (DTR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.2% Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.7% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.7% EBR Systems (EBR) - EBR Passes Tenth US Commercial Implant Milestone.

• +7.0% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - No news, general strength across the broader Coal sector today.

• +6.8% Metro Mining (MMI) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.3% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.1% Benz Mining Corp. (BNZ) - 4th High Grade Gold Lens Discovered at Zone 126, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.1% Wagners Holding Company (WGN) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.6% Minerals 260 (MI6) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.6% KGL Resources (KGL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.3% Betmakers Technology Group (BET) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.2% Whitehaven Coal (WHC) - No news, general strength across the broader Coal sector today.

• +5.1% Wildcat Resources (WC8) - No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +5.0% Core Lithium (CXO) - No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

Trading lower

• -30.0% PYC Therapeutics (PYC) – Change of Managing Director.

• -12.8% Bannerman Energy (BMN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -8.3% New Hope Corporation (NHC) – Presentation on Full Year Results 2025.

• -7.9% Deep Yellow (DYL) – General weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -7.4% Medallion Metals (MM8) – Investor Presentation.

• -7.3% Mithril Resources (MTH) – General weakness across the broader Silver sector today.

• -5.9% Sun Silver (SS1) – Investor Presentation - Mining Forum Americas, general weakness across the broader Silver sector today.

• -5.9% Polymetals Resources (POL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Silver sector today.

• -4.7% Unico Silver (USL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Silver sector today.

Broker Moves

Alkane Resources (ALK)

• Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.45

ALS (ALQ)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.45

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Upgraded to trim from sell at Morgans; Price Target: $29.24 from $26.84

Baby Bunting Group (BBN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.04

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.10

Centuria Office REIT (COF)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.20

Computershare (CPU)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $40.40

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $258.00

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $4.73

DUG Technology (DUG)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.89 from $2.32

EQ Resources (EQR)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.06 from $0.10

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.53 from $1.40

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.75

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.10

Imdex (IMD)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.55

Magnetic Resources NL (MAU)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.98

Metcash (MTS)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.35

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.10

• Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.80 from $4.00

Northern Minerals (NTU)

• Downgraded to hold from speculative buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $0.04 from $0.06

NRW Holdings (NWH)

• Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $4.70 from $3.60

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.00 from $9.30

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.60 from $7.70

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.00

REA Group (REA)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $279.25

Rural Funds Group (RFF)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.10 from $1.93

Silex Systems (SLX)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.90 from $6.64

Service Stream (SSM)

• Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.00

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.60

Sayona Mining (SYA)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $9.00 from $8.35

Tuas (TUA)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.95 from $7.10

Scans