The ASX 200 fell as BHP delivered its biggest single-session loss in more than a year after revealing a 42% cost blowout at its Canadian potash project. The broader materials and gold sectors were always going to be under pressure today, anyway, as the US dollar soared to a 13-month undermining commodity prices. Healthcare, led by a resurgent CSL, was a beacon of strength.
Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.
Let’s dive in!
Today in Review
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
| ASX 200 | 8,828.7 | -0.93% |
| All Ords | 9,047.3 | -0.87% |
| Small Ords | 3,553.1 | -0.27% |
| All Tech | 3,003.4 | +0.44% |
| Emerging Companies | 3,030.9 | -1.29% |
Currency | ||
| AUD/USD | 0.7014 | -0.00% |
US Futures | ||
| S&P 500 | 7,545.0 | -0.34% |
| Dow Jones | 51,917.0 | -0.17% |
| Nasdaq | 30,569.75 | -0.49% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Sector | ||
| Health Care | 25,163.4 | +3.51% |
| Consumer Staples | 12,940.8 | +1.27% |
| Energy | 9,792.0 | +0.49% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 3,828.6 | +0.45% |
| Information Technology | 1,840.0 | +0.22% |
| Financials | 9,242.8 | -0.08% |
| Industrials | 8,448.8 | -0.13% |
| Communication Services | 1,637.2 | -0.32% |
| Real Estate | 3,708.9 | -0.69% |
| Utilities | 9,664.2 | -0.82% |
| Materials | 24,566.8 | -4.03% |
ASX 200 Intraday Chart
%20intraday%20chart_19%20Jun.png)
Markets
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 82.4 points lower at 8,828.7, 0.9% from its session high and just 0.3% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 128 to 158.
For the week, the XJO finished up 24.7 points or 0.28% higher, but this was a disappointing 1.8% from its intraweek high and just 0.3% from its intraweek low.
%20chart_19%20Jun.png)
CSL (CSL) chart — You might want to keep an eye on Monday's edition of ChartWatch ASX Scans (= first uptrend (aggressive setup) in a year vs 92-odd downtrends!)
Health Care (XHJ) (+3.5%) staged one of its most convincing sessions in the last 12-months — a period that at one stage saw the sector sporting a 47% rolling 12-month decline. CSL (CSL) (+7.6%) was the standout in its biggest single-day gain since February 2022, now up more than 29% from its June 3 low of $90. 4DMedical (4DX) (+17.6%) also surged sharply — taking total gains over the past year above 1,650% — though no specific catalyst was confirmed. Healius (HLS) (+5.1%), Mesoblast (MSB) (+3.4%), Cochlear (COH) (+3.4%), and Pro Medicus (PME) (+3.1%) all advanced.
Today's pattern should now be very familiar: on days when growth stocks are under pressure, capital finds a home in defensive, reliable, non-cyclical earnings.
Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+1.3%) was the other defensive sector apart from Healthcare that caught a bid. The A2 Milk Company (A2M) (+9.8%) was the sector's standout mover: got milk!? But the old reliables of alcohol and groceries were also up there: Endeavour Group (EDV) (+4.6%), Coles (COL) (+1.2%), and Woolworths (WOW) (+0.5%) each rose.
Energy (XEJ) (+0.5%) bounced modestly after several days of heavy selling, buoyed by slightly firmer commodity price leads. ICE Brent crude futures recovered 0.9% to US$80.58/bbl and globalCoal Newcastle Coal futures gained 1.5% to US$133.00/t. Coal stocks led the sector — Yancoal Australia (YAL) (+3.3%), New Hope Corp. (NHC) (+1.3%), and Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (+0.6%) all advanced. Woodside Energy (WDS) (+1.4%) was the notable oil and gas gainer, while Santos (STO) (-0.4%) eased slightly.
Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.4%) continued to find buyers as confidence that the RBA is done hiking for this cycle supports rate-sensitive consumer spending names. Gaming stocks led: Tabcorp (TAH) (+4.2%) and Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) (+2.6%). Retailers were also firmer — ARB Corp. (ARB) (+3.5%), Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) (+2.9%), Nick Scali (NCK) (+2.9%), and Super Retail Group (SUL) (+1.9%) all gained.
US Dollar Index futures, front-month, back-adjusted chart
Materials (XMJ) (-4.0%) was the session's worst sector, hit by a confluence of forces. The US Dollar Index surged to a 13-month high following Wednesday's hawkish Fed meeting, as investors piled into the greenback under the assumption of higher US rates ahead. And since most major commodities are priced in US dollars, a stronger dollar directly compresses commodity prices by making them more expensive for non-US buyers.
COMEX copper futures fell 1.1% to US$6.31/lb and SGX iron ore futures slipped 0.7% to US$98.50/t. Base metals stocks were broadly sold: Rio Tinto (RIO) (-3.1%), South32 (S32) (-2.8%), Sims (SGM) (-2.6%), and Sandfire Resources (SFR) (-2.5%) all fell.
The sector had one additional, company-specific headache: BHP (BHP) (-5.6%) revealed Jansen potash project costs had blown out to at least US$6.9 billion — 42% above the original US$4.9 billion estimate — its biggest single-session loss since April 2025.
%20COMEX%20chart_19%20Jun.png)
Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX chart — rejection of the long term trend ribbon suggests gold's dream run is at an end! ⚠️
The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-3.8%) extended the prior session's losses as the stronger USD and higher risk-free yields delivered a familiar one-two punch to precious metals. COMEX gold futures fell a further 2.2% to US$4,152.6/oz and COMEX silver futures plunged 3.3% to US$64.11/oz — precious metals are now deep in retreat from the multi-year highs of earlier this month, with gold down more than 20% since the onset of the conflict. Newmont (NEM) (-6.7%), Ora Banda Mining (OBM) (-5.8%), Evolution Mining (EVN) (-5.1%), and Pantoro Gold (PNR) (-3.9%) were all sharply lower.
Lithium stocks continued to struggle, with no commodity price signal available today — the GFEX market in China was closed for a public holiday, leaving stocks to drift on sentiment alone. IGO (IGO) (-5.4%), Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-4.7%), Liontown Resources (LTR) (-2.9%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (-2.3%), and Elevra Lithium (ELV) (-1.1%) all fell.
Today's best ASX Top 300 gainers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4DMedical (4DX) | $4.54 | +$0.68 | +17.6% | +13.5% | +1716.0% |
| Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) | $10.66 | +$1.32 | +14.1% | +20.9% | +282.1% |
| The a2 Milk Company (A2M) | $6.71 | +$0.60 | +9.8% | +15.5% | -18.0% |
| CSL (CSL) | $116.32 | +$8.24 | +7.6% | +20.9% | -51.3% |
| Meridian Energy (MEZ) | $4.83 | +$0.32 | +7.1% | 0.0% | -7.6% |
| Weebit Nano (WBT) | $8.55 | +$0.53 | +6.6% | +32.4% | +448.1% |
| Life360 Inc (360) | $23.84 | +$1.39 | +6.2% | +30.9% | -26.7% |
| PYC Therapeutics (PYC) | $1.52 | +$0.075 | +5.2% | +14.7% | +37.7% |
| Core Lithium (CXO) | $0.305 | +$0.015 | +5.2% | -4.7% | +246.6% |
| Generation Development Group (GDG) | $3.73 | +$0.17 | +4.8% | -5.6% | -30.9% |
| Endeavour Group (EDV) | $3.43 | +$0.15 | +4.6% | +13.6% | -14.7% |
| Minerals 260 (MI6) | $0.93 | +$0.04 | +4.5% | +14.1% | +675.0% |
| Mercury NZ (MCY) | $5.69 | +$0.24 | +4.4% | -0.2% | +3.5% |
| Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) | $0.875 | +$0.035 | +4.2% | +29.6% | +17.5% |
| Helia Group (HLI) | $5.29 | +$0.21 | +4.1% | +6.9% | +1.0% |
| Air New Zealand (AIZ) | $0.38 | +$0.015 | +4.1% | +16.9% | -29.6% |
| Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT) | $2.61 | +$0.10 | +4.0% | -1.1% | -33.1% |
| ARB Corporation (ARB) | $19.61 | +$0.66 | +3.5% | +10.8% | -34.5% |
| Mesoblast (MSB) | $2.13 | +$0.07 | +3.4% | +4.4% | +27.5% |
| Magellan Financial Group (MFG) | $10.12 | +$0.33 | +3.4% | +18.6% | +21.5% |
Today's worst ASX Top 300 losers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Yellow (DYL) | $1.55 | -$0.17 | -9.9% | -6.3% | -9.1% |
| L1 Gold Fund (LGF) | $1.82 | -$0.16 | -8.1% | -8.5% | -10.3% |
| Alcoa Corporation (AAI) | $83.14 | -$6.14 | -6.9% | -3.8% | +93.6% |
| Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $143.47 | -$10.24 | -6.7% | -4.9% | +61.2% |
| HUB24 (HUB) | $73.55 | -$5.18 | -6.6% | -7.7% | -9.0% |
| Ora Banda Mining (OBM) | $1.215 | -$0.075 | -5.8% | -8.3% | +30.6% |
| BHP Group (BHP) | $61.40 | -$3.64 | -5.6% | +4.5% | +69.9% |
| IGO (IGO) | $8.17 | -$0.47 | -5.4% | -2.3% | +101.7% |
| Vault Minerals (VAU) | $4.80 | -$0.26 | -5.1% | +9.6% | +80.1% |
| Evolution Mining (EVN) | $12.54 | -$0.67 | -5.1% | +5.1% | +61.2% |
| Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE) | $4.91 | -$0.26 | -5.0% | -16.4% | +113.5% |
| PLS Group (PLS) | $5.88 | -$0.29 | -4.7% | -2.0% | +354.1% |
| Bellevue Gold (BGL) | $1.47 | -$0.07 | -4.5% | -2.6% | +55.6% |
| Greatland Resources (GGP) | $13.59 | -$0.64 | -4.5% | +2.3% | +105.9% |
| Ryman Healthcare (RYM) | $1.84 | -$0.085 | -4.4% | +7.0% | -19.3% |
| Resolute Mining (RSG) | $1.11 | -$0.05 | -4.3% | -11.9% | +82.0% |
| FireFly Metals (FFM) | $1.89 | -$0.085 | -4.3% | -1.0% | +85.3% |
| Zimplats Holdings (ZIM) | $13.81 | -$0.62 | -4.3% | -10.4% | -16.8% |
| Genesis Minerals (GMD) | $5.96 | -$0.26 | -4.2% | -1.3% | +32.2% |
| West African Resources (WAF) | $3.11 | -$0.13 | -4.0% | +1.3% | +42.0% |
Chartwatch
Nasdaq Composite Index
Analysis
Solid candle Thurs. Wild result, though!
I mean, the Comp opened by gapping above Wednesday's supply side candle's high. That's a total about face from what was a potentially damning close just a minute earlier in market time (sure, 18-odd hours in real time, but from Wed's-close-to-Thur's-open — it was a total rethink of the fundamentals).
The Comp then pulled back, BTD kicked in... and voila, downward pointing shadow + close at session high = Demand side candle ✅
Plus, a new trough has formed at 25960 — higher than 24980 = Return to rising troughs ✅
The long term trend remains intact and very solid ✅
However, can one really argue that the balance between demand and supply side candles in the recent past is unequivocally back to: predominantly demand side?
Since the 27191 peak? No, not for me — there's still just too much black in there. 👎
So, as encouraging as Thursday's candle is, and despite the other two ticks, I'm going to play it safe (or unnecessarily conservative — only time will tell!) and stick with 1/2RP for now.
Let me see another solid demand side candle, like the last, closing at least above 26789 — but preferably within that 26789-27191 supply zone.
Safe vs sorry... Something like that!
View
I am 1/2RP on the Comp (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).
Key levels
27191 is the key point of supply. 24980 is the key point of demand. The short term uptrend ribbon (presently 25792-26102) may also come into play before that.
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)
%20chart_19%20Jun.png)
Analysis
Gosh I wish I'd played this a little safer.
Nope, I'm just sorry. 😭
But, put up your hand if you're at all surprised that my faith in the OTP has turned out to be unfounded.
Yeah... Didn't think so! 🤦
One day — surely, it must happen eventually — the OTP will exceed my very low expectations!?
(Big sigh...)
Until then, it seems we are back in the trading range. 8987-9022 seems to be a monster. Looking down, the trend ribbons absolutely must hold.
Talking about 'hold', moving between portfolio risk allocations is never an instantaneous thing... and to be fair, some of the sectors we've been looking at targeting for aggressive setups in the webinars actually did well today (healthcare, discretionary).
Look, it's a "2/3RP if you can get it" sort of thing — which might not even be the case. Let's just say that after today, I don't think there's any great rush to get there...
View
I am 2/3RP 🪣 on the OTP (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 67%).
Key levels
8987-9022 is the key zone of supply. Beyond that, it's 9201. Demand is in the 8485-8561 range, but the short- and long-term trend ribbons (presently 8687-8787) will likely also increasingly come into play as a dynamic zone of excess demand.
(Glossary of acronyms! OTP (Old Tin Pot): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position)
This week's ChartWatch Live Webinar: Why Elon Musk should sell 1.6 billion SpaceX shares right away... (and a major Nasdaq top signal!)
ChartWatch LIVE Webinar
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Economy
Today
There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today...
Later this week
Friday
ALL DAY CHN Holiday / Non trading day
ALL DAY USA Holiday / Non trading day
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
- SkyCity Entertainment Group (SKC) $0.47+14.6%
Reached an agreement to pay $21 million for breaches of anti‑money laundering and counterterrorism laws at its Adelaide casino after a three‑year review, with the fine to be paid in three instalments.
- Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) $10.66+14.1%
Secured a US$124 million contract to supply Slinger counter-drone remote weapon systems to UAE defence firm Generation 5 and signed a conditional JV in Abu Dhabi to develop high‑energy laser weapons and remote weapon systems.
- AML3D (AL3) $0.15+7.1%
Completed an initial ~$4.5 million order for two custom ARCEMY X systems for Newport News Shipbuilding, with a second ~$9.9 million order tracking for early 2027.
- IDP Education (IEL) $2.56+6.7%
Said adjusted EBIT would be about $122 million for FY26, with $30 million net cost reductions and announced a $50 million share buyback.
- Arena REIT (ARF) $3.25+2.9%
Reported an estimated $11.5 million uplift in FY26 portfolio valuations (0.6%), supporting a 3¢ increase in NAV per share and declared a final quarter distribution of 4.8125¢.
Trading Lower
- Alligator Energy (AGE) $0.04-29.5%
Announced a maiden inferred MRE of 12 Mlbs U3O8 at the Plumbush deposit, increasing project MRE to 30 Mlbs, and executed a call option to acquire the Mullaquana Crown Lease.
- Aeris Resources (AIS) $0.39-8.2%
NSW Supreme Court made orders approving the scheme of arrangement under which Aeris will acquire 100% of Peel, giving Aeris the South Cobar Copper Project with combined copper resources of 197kt.
- BHP Group (BHP) $61.40-5.6%
Lifted total capex for the Jansen S2 potash project from US$4.9 billion to US$6.9 billion and will book a US$2.3 billion impairment in its annual results, with first production now expected in late FY31.
- PLS Group (PLS) $5.88-4.7%
Approved $175 million in pre‑FID spending for its proposed P2000 expansion at Pilgangoora to preserve construction timing flexibility ahead of a December‑quarter 2026 final decision.
- Macquarie Group (MQG) $249.82-1.2%
Completed purchase of about $734 million of its own stock to fund employee profit‑share and promotion awards (average price $238.80).
Broker Moves
Company | Broker | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
A1MAIC Mines | Shaw and Partners | Retained | Buy | $1.10 |
BBNBaby Bunting Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $3.30 |
BCIBCI Minerals | Shaw and Partners | Initiated | Buy | $0.75 |
BOEBoss Energy | Goldman Sachs | Upgraded | Neutral(from Sell) | $1.30(from $1.40) |
BPTBeach Energy | Citi | Retained | Sell | $0.90(from $1.05) |
| Macquarie | Retained | Underperform | $0.85 | |
CGFChallenger | Bank of America | Downgraded | Neutral(from Buy) | $10.00 |
| Citi | Retained | Buy | $10.00 | |
| CLSA | Retained | Hold | $8.85 | |
| Goldman Sachs | Retained | Buy | $9.00 | |
| Jarden | Retained | Neutral | $9.20(from $8.70) | |
| Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $11.00 | |
| UBS | Retained | Buy | $11.00(from $10.20) | |
CMMCapricorn Metals | Bell Potter | Retained | Buy | $16.25 |
EHLEmeco Holdings | Macquarie | Retained | Neutral | $1.08(from $1.40) |
GMGGoodman Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $40.00 |
| Ord Minnett | Retained | Hold | $29.50 | |
IELIDP Education | UBS | Retained | Buy | $5.15 |
KARKaroon Energy | Citi | Retained | Buy | $1.75(from $2.50) |
LICLifestyle Communities | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $5.80(from $5.40) |
| UBS | Retained | Neutral | $5.70(from $5.80) | |
MPKMany Peaks Minerals | Canaccord Genuity | Retained | Speculative Buy | $1.90 |
NCKNick Scali | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $14.15 |
PDNPaladin Energy | Goldman Sachs | Downgraded | Sell(from Neutral) | $9.70(from $11.30) |
QANQantas Airways | Citi | Retained | Buy | $10.40 |
REAREA Group | Bell Potter | Retained | Sell | $133.00(from $137.00) |
SDFSteadfast Group | Macquarie | Downgraded | Neutral(from Outperform) | $4.50(from $4.80) |
SEKSEEK | Bell Potter | Retained | Buy | $18.60 |
| Macquarie | Retained | Neutral | $18.50 | |
SGMSims | Ord Minnett | Retained | Lighten | $24.00 |
STOSantos | Citi | Retained | Buy | $8.50(from $9.00) |
TCGTuraco Gold | Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $1.00 |
TPWTemple & Webster Group | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $5.60 |
WDSWoodside Energy Group | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $29.50(from $34.00) |
Scans
Top Gainers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| A8G | Australasian Metals Ltd | $0.13 | +44.44% |
| OSL | Oncosil Medical Ltd | $0.795 | +34.75% |
| PFT | Pure Foods Tasmania Ltd | $0.021 | +31.25% |
| AD8 | Audinate Group Ltd | $2.23 | +27.43% |
| PCL | Pancontinental Energy NL | $0.011 | +22.22% |
Top Fallers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| CYP | Cynata Therapeutics Ltd | $0.018 | -93.08% |
| AGE | Alligator Energy Ltd | $0.037 | -29.52% |
| AIV | Activex Ltd | $0.013 | -27.78% |
| NOR | Norwood Systems Ltd | $0.013 | -23.53% |
| FOS | FOS Capital Ltd | $0.11 | -21.43% |
52 Week Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| RMI | Resource Minerals International Ltd | $0.115 | +9.52% |
| BXN | Bioxyne Ltd | $0.105 | +9.38% |
| BCM | Brazilian Critical Minerals Ltd | $0.051 | +8.51% |
| AVE | Avecho Biotechnology Ltd | $0.015 | +7.14% |
| WBT | Weebit Nano Ltd | $8.55 | +6.61% |
52 Week Lows
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| CYP | Cynata Therapeutics Ltd | $0.018 | -93.08% |
| FOS | FOS Capital Ltd | $0.11 | -21.43% |
| BUY | Bounty Oil & Gas NL | $0.02 | -20.00% |
| UM1 | Unity Metals Ltd | $0.075 | -18.48% |
| RMY | Rma Global Ltd | $0.025 | -18.03% |
Near Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| WVOL | iShares MSCI World Ex Aust Minimum Volatility ETF | $45.17 | -0.02% |
| EGH | Eureka Group Holdings Ltd | $0.65 | +3.18% |
| GCI | Gryphon Capital Income Trust | $2.07 | +0.49% |
| VVLU | Vanguard Global Value Equity Active ETF | $80.93 | -0.82% |
| IHD | iShares S&P/ASX DIV Opportunities Esg Screened ETF | $17.32 | -0.92% |
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBF | Duxton Farms Ltd | $0.455 | +2.25% |
| KAR | Karoon Energy Ltd | $1.44 | -0.35% |
| NVX | Novonix Ltd | $0.175 | -2.78% |
| REA | REA Group Ltd | $140.08 | -3.13% |
| FAR | FAR Ltd | $0.285 | 0.00% |
