Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slammed 100 points on ANZ, NAB, WBC selloff as correction enters dangerous phase

ASX 200 futures are up 18pts (+0.23%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

It was always going to be a tough day for the ASX 200 when three out of four of the big banks fell over 2% (ANZ, NAB, and WBC, CBA was down 1.4%), and with big resources companies like BHP, RIO and WDS tumbling similar amounts.

Positives? There weren't many during today's triple-digit drubbing - another painful extension of the swelling correction that has befallen the Australian share market in the wake of President Trump's trade war.

Gold and utilities stocks did eke out gains - albeit tiny, but uranium and copper stocks fared much better. Copper stocks rallied strongly on a nice spike in the copper price overnight, while uranium stocks, well let's just say they can't claim the same reason!

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200 and High Grade Copper in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 103.9 points lower at 7,786.2, 1.33% from its session high and 0.68% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a decisive 80 to 193.

Dead cats, black candles, supply-side control. You are probably just as unsurprised by today’s triple digit continuance of the beating that the Aussie stock market has taken since the 8616 Valentine’s Day peak as I am.

One thing I did find a little curious, however, was the sizeable 21-point pop in the closing price auction (it’s the up-blip in the intraday chart above).

It makes you wonder why the fund manager(s) in question didn’t get all that buying into the market during the six long hours preceding the customary murky 10-minutes of after-market shenanigans which concludes each day’s trade on the ASX.

Surely the desperation from those market participants to secure stock wasn’t from a want of supply or low prices – there was plenty of each to go around during regular trade. So, I suggest it wasn’t a long-side fund looking to gain risk exposure.

Logically, it was more likely instead a short-side fund who had committed to closing out today no matter what. They ebbed and flowed their short closing during the day, and they finished it off in the auction. Interestingly there was insufficient supply around in the auction to prevent a larger pop in prices.

Consequences? Not sure…just musing…probably none. Do they know something we don’t know? 🤔

Who cares…It’s just a reminder that short covering is a very important part of demand – and it will play critical role in any demand-side resurgence – should one ever materialise!

Apart from the above, I could do best and worst sectors, but let's face it – it was 50 Shades of Red today.

If I squint, defensives like Gold (XGD) (+0.34%) and Utilities (XUJ) (+0.02%) were better placed than the high-PE cohort of Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-2.0%), Financials (XFJ) (-1.6%), Health Care (XHJ) (-1.2%), and Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.1%).

One curiosity, or another curiosity, I should say after taking into account the closing price auction up-blip – was the poor performance of the Industrials (XNJ) (-1.9%) sector. It rarely gets a mention here, because it rarely does anything interesting from a major price move perspective.

But, I note that the sector index contains a wide range of both defensive and economic growth sensitive companies. So, I suggest if the Industrials sector is struggling, it makes sense the whole market is struggling.

Industrials sector best / worst performers today

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

Indecision reigns supreme! (click here for full size image)

From my X/Twitter post on the Comp this morning:

11-Mar 🕯️ = Demand-side working into system vs Supply-side less motivated/impactful

>Avg Volume vs 🕯️ = Decent supply early, demand did step in to soak up, but insufficient to overcome degree of latent supply

Conclusion = Indecision!

So, next 🕯️ = Super important!

⬜ = Demand-side gaining control

⬛ = Supply-side still in control

ST/LT Trends & Price Action = Consistent with Supply-side control 📉⚠️

(Translation: The downward and upward pointing shadows in last night's candle indicates both the demand-side and the supply-side had control of prices at some point. Encouragingly excess demand did work into the system after the early decline, showing some buy the dip activity. This activity, however, was insufficient to overcome the continued latent supply remaining in the system, and therefore a more decisive high close eluded us. The above average volume suggests plenty of interest at lower prices, but also plenty of pesky latent supply – again consistent with indecision. After such a pronounced indecision candle, the next candle is of particular importance as it may indicate which side of the market is gaining the upper hand. A white candle would be consistent with demand-side control, while a black candle would be consistent with supply-side control).

Indecision is the enemy of trend traders. We want consensus. Consensus the market is cactus or is cranking – either way – consensus breeds the strongest and most reliable trends. ✅

US 10 Year T-Bond Yield, US economy is NOT cactus 🌵 (click here for full size image)

Note: One interesting morsel from last night's trade, an inkling that the "US economy is cactus" theory is backing out a little – a tidy selloff in bonds – triggering a tidy rally in risk-free market yields. The catalyst was the stronger than expected JOLTS Survey, which showed more positions available as US firms than expected.

If the US economy isn't going down the toilet, then why are stocks trading like it is? No impact on stocks yet, well if you don't count that indecision candle (hey – at least it wasn't another sell off like ours today), but I suggest this is something to watch closely going forward.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Please, the dead cat is already dead! 🙀☠️ (click here for full size image)

Cactus. Enough said. 🌵

High Grade Copper Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Copper keeping on keeping on 🤞 (click here for full size image)

Not cactus. Surprisingly, also not disappointing the faith I placed in this one a few weeks back. A decent demand-side showing last night and at a critical zone of demand – the short term uptrend ribbon.

Strong candles and respecting of the short and long term uptrend ribbons are accompanied by demand-side price action (rising peaks and rising troughs). All good stuff.

Opposing these signals of demand-side control, supply is clear and substantial, though. The 4.8875-4.906 zone – you can't miss it.

But with each attempt at breaking 4.8875-4.906, a little more, and a little more of the latent supply that resides there is chipped away...until...well, we shall see!

Demand sits at 4.622 / the short term uptrend ribbon. A close below both would end the short term uptrend.

Until then, I can't seen any reason why Copper can't take another run at 4.8875-4.906, nor really can I see any reason why it can't get through this time.

As always ("Yes Carl – we know!" I hear you say!) watch the candles at the supply zone. White bodies and downward pointing shadows there will tell you the demand-side is unphased by the potential supply-side threat, thus increasing the probability of a successful break.

Alternatively, black bodies and upward pointing shadows there will tell you the supply-side is very much in control in that zone, and the status quo will most likely remain.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Thursday

• 20:30 USA Core Producer Price Index (PPI) February m/m (+0.3% forecast vs +0.4% in January)

Friday

• 22:00 USA Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment March (63.8% forecast vs 64.7 in February)

• 22:00 USA Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations March (+4.3% p.a. in February)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +10.0% Gorilla Gold Mines (GG8) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.3% Nickel Industries (NIC) - Information on Proposed Indonesian Royalty Changes, rebounded after yesterday's sharp sell-off due to Response to ASX Price Query.

• +7.6% Andean Silver (ASL) - Geophysics Uncovers Extended Mineralisation at Sinter Hill and Euroz Hartleys Institutional Conference Presentation.

• +7.5% Brainchip (BRN) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +7.4% Novonix (NVX) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +6.8% Aurelia Metals (AMI) - No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.8% Catalyst Metals (CYL) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.8% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - No news, (possibly delayed catch up to recent rally in other ASX coal stocks on back of bounce in thermal coal prices - CRN has greatest exposure to coking coal - the price of which did also finally bounce overnight).

• +5.1% Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) - No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today.

• +4.6% Metals Acquisition (MAC) - No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today.

• +4.6% Regal Partners (RPL) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +4.0% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today - no help from the uranium price (down again overnight), bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +3.8% Adriatic Metals (ADT) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +3.7% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - Continued positive response to 11-Mar Botanix Conference Commercial Update, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +3.5% Silex Systems (SLX) - No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +3.3% Johns Lyng Group (JLG) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +3.3% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon!.

• +3.3% Spartan Resources (SPR) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +3.2% DigiCo REIT (DGT) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +3.2% Deep Yellow (DYL) - No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon!

Trading lower

• -22.0% Austal (ASB) - $200m Institutional Placement - investor presentation, (placement and SPP at $3.80 per share is a massive discount to last traded price, if it was a crypto - punters would be screaming of a rug pull! 🤦).

• -10.0% IPH (IPH) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.8% Imugene (IMU) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.7% Ramelius Resources (RMS) - Continued negative response to 11-Mar Mt Magnet Mine Plan presentation, downgraded to hold from buy at Argonaut Securities, also a substantial target price cut to $2.60 from $3.50, several other large target price from other brokers (see Broker Moves section below for more details).

• -8.1% Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ) - No news, general weakness across the broader Industrials sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -5.0% Corporate Travel Management (CTD) - No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today.

• -5.0% Helloworld Travel (HLO) - No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.9% Kelsian Group (KLS) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.6% MA Financial Group (MAF) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• Audinate Group (AD8)

  • Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.30 from $8.70

• Austal (ASB)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.65

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.75 from $5.10

• Brickworks (BKW)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $32.50 from $36.60

  • Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $30.00

  • Upgraded to overweight from negative at Jarden; Price Target: $25.60 from $29.10

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.90 from $27.30

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $25.00 from $28.75

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $29.00 from $30.50

• Breville Group (BRG)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $38.20

• COG Financial Services (COG)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.090 from $1.160

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.70 from $18.40

• Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.20

• Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.15

• Meteoric Resources (MEI)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.400

• McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.00

• Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $20.00 from $25.00

• Nickel Industries (NIC)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.470

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.000

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.600

• Orica (ORI)

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $23.00

• Ramelius Resources (RMS)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $2.60 from $3.50

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.90 from $3.20

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.60

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.80

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.89 from $2.98

• Regal Partners (RPL)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.00

• Rox Resources (RXL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.560

• Suncorp Group (SUN)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $24.67

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.85

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $29.20

• Webjet (WJL)

  • Initiated at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $0.970

• Woolworths Group (WOW)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $33.00 from $34.00

Scans