Morning Wrap: No reprieve in sight for ASX after US markets end lower again overnight

In a nutshell:

• US markets endure choppy session as investors grapple with Trump tariffs

• ASX set to slide again, with SPI futures pointing to a weaker start

• Commodities generally stronger; gold, base matelas and oil higher

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 attempted a bounce but failed in a choppy (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks were mostly lower in choppy trade, with stocks ending off worst levels but unable to sustain bounce attempt

• Markets rattled by economic slowdown fears, fueled by tariffs, spending cuts (FT)

• Wall Street starting to fear that Trump will wreck soft landing for the US economy (WSJ)

• Speculative corners of the market routed as investors flee to high quality assets (Bloomberg)

• Goldman Sachs says hedge funds unwinding risk as in early days of Covid pandemic (Reuters)

• Citi downgrades US stocks on exceptionalism doubts, upgrades China (Bloomberg)

• PBOC dials back yuan support amid doubts over US exceptionalism (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• Delta Airlines earnings downgrade heightens concerns about travel demand (Bloomberg)

• Oracle misses, but AI momentum building (Reuters)

• Tesla has worst day in four years amid a growing backlash over Elon Musk's political allegiances (Bloomberg)

• OpenAI strikes $12B deal with CoreWeave, signing a five-year contract ahead of its hotly anticipated stock market launch (FT)

• Nvidia's challengers seizing new opportunity to crack its dominance of AI chips after DeepSeek's industry shake up (FT)

• Apple preparing major software overhaul that will fundamentally change OS appearance (Bloomberg)

• Elon Musk blames X outage on massive cyberattack (FT)

• DeepSeek owner does not want new shareholders for the moment (WSJ)

• Volkswagen projects flat profitability in 2025 amid trade tensions and muted demand (Bloomberg)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB's Schnabel warns of persistent inflation risks, signaling potential rate cut pause (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• US and Ukraine agree to ceasefire deal, pending Russian approval

• Trump announces additional 25% tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum

• Trump admin in talks with China about setting up Trump-Xi summit in June; talks currently stuck at lower levels (Bloomberg)

• Rubio says US may resume aid if Ukraine commits to peace, Kiev must cede territory for peace 

• Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff planning to meet Putin in Moscow later this week following US-Ukraine summit (Axios)

ECONOMY

• Trump to meet CEOs on Thursday amid growing business alarm over tariffs, economic slowdown (Bloomberg)

• NEC Director Kevin Hassett downplays US recession concerns (Reuters)

• Tariff panic across Wall Street puts pressure on Trump to push sweeping tax cut bill (Bloomberg)

• US economy downgraded by Goldman Sachs on negative tariff impact (CNBC)

• Builders stockpile lumber and swap out materials to work around tariffs but face high storage costs (link)

• China's consumption boost plan of $41B just a start as deflationary pressures deepen (CNBC)

• Japan Q4 GDP revised down amid household consumption weakness (Bloomberg)

• UK consumer spending slows in February despite rising confidence (Reuters, Bloomberg)

• Australian consumer confidence rises following rate cut (Reuters), business confidence negative (Reuters)

ASX TODAY

• Red Hill Minerals reports H1 NPAT A$3.6M vs year-ago (A$1.1M)

• Lotus Resources provides updated scoping study results for Letlhakane uranium project

• Wildcat Resources reports H1 NPAT (A$6.4M) vs year-ago (A$6.2M)

• Rio Tinto is looking to sell up to $US9 billion of bonds to help pay for Arcadium Lithium.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• ASX 200 bounced from the lows yesterday, can the bulls follow through to the upside today?

• Growth stocks have been hammered amid the selloff - will bargain hunters move in?

BROKER MOVES

• Coles upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley; target up to $21.70 from $18.40

• Woolworths target decreased to $33 from $34 at Morgan Stanley

• Brickworks upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Jarden; target down to $25.60 from $29.10.

• Brickworks upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; target remains $30

• Austal downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argonaut Securities; target down to $4.40 from $4.65.

• Ramelius Resources downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argonaut Securities; target down to $2.60 from $3.50.

• Webjet Group initiated overweight at Wilsons; target $0.97

Key events 

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wednesday 12 March – Brambles (BXB) – $0.303, Breville Group (BRG) – $0.18, Kip McGrath Education Centres (KME) – $0.005, Motorcycle Holdings (MTO) – $0.08, Perpetual Equity Investment Company (PIC) – $0.04, WCM Global Growth (WQG) – $0.019.

• Thursday 13 March – Bapcor (BAP) – $0.08, Bisalloy Steel Group (BIS) – $0.08, Count (CUP) – $0.018, Duratec (DUR) – $0.018, Embelton (EMB) – $0.15, Glennon Small Companies (GC1) – $0.01, Glennon Small Companies (GC1PA) – $0.34, Globe International (GLB) – $0.10, Inghams Group (ING) – $0.11, Joyce Corporation (JYC) – $0.105, Kogan.com (KGN) – $0.07, McMillan Shakespeare (MMS) – $0.71, Perpetual (PPT) – $0.61, Pepper Money (PPM) – $0.071, PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund (PGF) – $0.055, PWR Holdings (PWH) – $0.02, Regis Healthcare (REG) – $0.081, SRG Global (SRG) – $0.025, Summerset Group (SNZ) – $0.101, Thorney Opportunities (TOP) – $0.011, Vulcan Steel (VSL) – $0.02, Yancoal Australia (YAL) – $0.52

• Friday 14 March: Ariadne Australia (ARA) – $0.005, CAR Group (CAR) – $0.385, Data#3 (DTL) – $0.131, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Wisetech Global (WTC) – $0.105.

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Lendlease Group (LLC), Magellan Financial Group (MFG), Reff Casino Trust (RCT)

• Listing: None

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: Westgold Resources (18 March)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

US - Core Inflation MoM and YoY, Inflation Rate MoM and YoY - 11:30 PM Cananda - BoC Interest Rate Decision - 12:45 AM