Evening Wrap: ASX 200 rises on renewed China stimulus hopes, gold, mining, health and financial stocks lead

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 38.3 points higher, up 0.47%.

Resources stocks chose to see the positives in a China Ministry of Finance meeting on the weekend in which few hard numbers and hard details on new initiatives to solve the country's debt and property crisis were given.

Elsewhere, key Health Care and Financials stocks also rose – and if you’ve got Resources, Health Care and Financials rising – you’re typically going to have a decent day on the Aussie market. But I do note, market breadth wasn’t flash at all!

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 38.3 points higher at 8,252.8, 0.47% from its session low and 0.23% from its low. Despite the gain in the benchmark index, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a narrow 133 to 135.

The Gold (XGD) (+2.0%) sub-index was the best performing sector today, likely in response to a rise in the gold price we were tracking in the ChartWatch section of Friday’s Evening Wrap. Those gains held in into the close of COMEX trading early Saturday morning our time, and after an early dip in Asian trade, the gold price is firming back towards that last candle’s highs. One could argue that the all-time high of 2708.7 is now back within an average candle’s reach.

The gold price is potentially one average candle away from setting a new all-time high

Also doing well today was the Materials (XMJ) (+1.3%) sector more generally, as fund manages chose to see the positives in Saturday’s speech by China Ministry of Finance Lan Fo’an.

This is despite no new specific numbers being put to the size of upcoming fiscal measures by Fan, but to be fair, he did provide some detail on a few measures being mulled including refinancing heavily indebted local governments, potentially removing some restrictions on certain property purchases, and cutting some real estate-related taxes.

Perhaps its just a case of no bad news is good news and/or with each report to market Chinese policy makers are growing more incrementally more credible in terms of something will eventually be done to solve the country’s major debt and property issues.

Interestingly it wasn’t another binary bet between resources stocks and Health Care (XHJ) (+0.89%) and Financials (XFJ) (+0.78%)…1’s and not 0’s across these major index-constituent heavy sectors.

Resources, Health Care and Financials majors flexed their muscles today

If you’ve got Resources, Health Care and Financials rising, you’re typically going to have a decent day on the Aussie market – but I do note as pointed out above – market breadth wasn’t flash at all…🤔

Doing it tough today was once again the Energy (XEJ) (-1.26%). It was again by far the worst performing ASX sector as key oil and gas producers traded lower on the back of (to be fair) only very modest declines in energy commodity prices Friday, and into Asian trade today. Check out this article discussing the sector, crude oil price forecasts and Goldman Sach’s top ASX energy picks.

I do note, in contrast to oil and gas names, coal and some uranium stocks were stronger today.

The XEJ has underperformed the ASX 200 by over 70% over the last 12 months, today just made it even worse!

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today, note also, US markets closed Monday due to Columbus Day Holiday

Later this week

Tuesday

• Tentative CHN Various

  • New Loans (+1,090 billion forecast vs 900 billion previous)

  • M2 Money Supply (+6.4% p.a. forecast vs +6.3% p.a. previous)

  • Trade Balance (91.5 billion forecast vs 91 billion previous)

  • Foreign Direct Investment (-31.5% year to date vs previous corresponding period)

Thursday

• 11:30 AUS Employment Change September (+25,200 forecast vs +47,500 August)

• 23:15 EUR ECB Main Financing Rate (-0.25% to 3.4% forecast)

• 11:30 USA Core Retail Sales September (+0.1% m/m forecast vs +0.1% m/m in August)

• 23:45 EUR ECB Press Conference

Friday

• 01:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index October (43 forecast vs 41 September)

• 13:00 CHN "Data Dump"

  • GDP September (+4.6% p.a. vs +4.7% p.a. previous)

  • Industrial Production (+4.6% p.a. vs +4.5% p.a. previous)

  • Retail Sales (+2.3% p.a. vs +2.8% p.a. previous)

  • Fixed Asset Investment (+3.3% year to date vs previous corresponding period)

  • Unemployment Rate

• 23:30 USA Building Permits September (1.45 million forecast vs 1.48 million August) & Housing Starts September (1.35 million forecast vs 1.36 million August)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +9.5% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news since 8 Oct Key step towards implementation of debt financing achieved, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (has been featured a few times recently in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists) 🔎📈

• +7.4% Appen (APX) - Successful Completion of Institutional Placement, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for several weeks now) 🔎📈

• +6.3% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, generally stronger ASX gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists regular) 🔎📈

• +6.0% Regis Resources (RRL) - No news, ditto stronger ASX gold sector, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (has been featured a few times recently in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists) 🔎📈

• +5.9% Macmahon (MAH) - Decmil Secures $123m Road Upgrade Contract, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists regular) 🔎📈

• +5.8% Spartan Resources (SPR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend (but hasn't featured in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for several weeks now…) 🔎📈

• +5.8% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term trend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up, this candle will earn it a spot in tomorrow's ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list! 🔎📈

• +5.5% Chalice Mining (CHN) - Commonwealth Awards Major Project Status to Gonneville, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, doing its best to break above the long term trend ribbon (now neutral) 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -35.6% Webjet (WEB) - 1H25 Preliminary Results update (update noting disappointing margins performance, particularly in Europe and negative impacts from customer incentive agreements more broadly, downgrade to H1 FY25 TTV/revenue to 6.4% from 7.0% reported as recently August AGM, operating expenses up 15%)

• -5.2% Webjet (WJL) - No news specifically here, but no doubt tagged by the WEB fallout

• -5.1% Tabcorp (TAH) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -4.3% Strike Energy (STX) - No news, generally weaker energy sector on modest pullback in the crude oil price Friday and in Asian trade today, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend (price has been repelled from the long term trend ribbon)

• -4.1% TPG Telecom (TPG) - TPG agrees sale of fibre and fixed EGW assets to Vocus

• -3.7% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -3.7% Corporate Travel Management (CTD) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -2.9% PWR Holdings (PWH) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -2.9% Karoon Energy (KAR) - No news, ditto weaker energy sector, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

Broker Notes

• 29METALS (29M)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.55

• AGL Energy (AGL)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $11.50 from $11.30

• Ampol (ALD)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $32.90 from $35.60

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $59.00

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $47.10 from $47.50

• Beach Energy (BPT)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.26 from $1.44

• Catapult Group International (CAT)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.75 from $2.35

• Challenger (CGF)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.20 from $7.00

• Cooper Energy (COE)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.25 from $0.25

• COG Financial Services (COG)

  • Initiated at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.25

• Comet Ridge (COI)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.27

• Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.50

• Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure/Notes (DBI)

  • Initiated at positive at E&P; Price Target: $4.30

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.00

• Duratec (DUR)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.90 from $1.50

• Evolution Mining (EVN)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.25

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $17.55 from $17.45

• IGO (IGO)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.90

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.70 from $6.85

• Incitec Pivot (IPL)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.30

• Karoon Energy (KAR)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.03 from $2.20

• Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.70 from $6.55

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.80 from $7.40

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $56.00 from $55.50

• Metro Mining (MMI)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.14

• Macquarie Group (MQG)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $176.00

• NIB (NHW)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.05

• Origin Energy (ORG)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $10.45 from $10.75

• Platinum Asset Management (PTM)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.21

• REA Group (REA)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $250.00

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $135.00 from $135.50

• Regal Partners (RPL)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.30

• Smartpay (SMP)

  • Initiated at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.40

• Santos (STO)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.00 from $8.65

• Strike Energy (STX)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.32

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.25 from $0.25

• The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.40

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $5.10

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.70 from $5.60

• Tyro Payments (TYR)

  • Initiated at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.65

• Viva Energy Group (VEA)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.60

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $29.70

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $27.20 from $31.70

• Webjet (WEB)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.25

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.63

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.35

Scans