Evening Wrap: ASX 200 recedes from highs as woeful resources hit by simultaneous lithium and iron ore meltdowns

Lithium prices are in meltdown mode in China at the moment, and I gotta say, that’s not a clickbait exaggeration. The iron ore price decline is nowhere near as spectacular as the lithium one, but it’s starting to get a bit pointy...

These were the dominant themes propelling the ever-ailing Resources sector lower again today. The results in terms of share price moves among affected stocks wasn't pretty.

But that doesn't mean there wasn't a whole heap of great stuff going on today – particularly if you own Healthcare, Tech, Real Estate, and Consumer Discretionary stocks.

We've all all the big news and moves on all of the above in this evening's wrap...so...

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 23.9 points higher at 7,850.7, 0.76% from its session high/low and just 0.31% from its high/low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a solid 173 to 96.

The Health Care (XHJ) (+1.7%) was the best performing sector today, buoyed by strong gains in sector heavyweights Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) (+7.1%), and CSL (ASX: CSL) (+2.0%) – both on better than expected results releases.

Also doing well today were the interest rate sensitives of Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.6%), Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+1.6%) and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.0%). Benchmark bond yields fell sharply Tuesday on better than expected wholesale inflation data in the US – this sparked a nice risk rally which we enjoyed (at least initially) today.

There were also plenty of results in the mix and for full details on those be sure to check out today’s Interesting Moves lists.

The best performing stocks from the best performing ASX sectors today

Only two of the major sectors closed in the red – you know which two. This time, Energy (XEJ) (-0.03%) escaped with a small loss, but Resources (XJR) (-1.8%) was not nearly so lucky.

The decline in Resources was dominated by two major themes: substantial falls in iron ore and lithium plays (two-and-a-half if you count uranium stocks were also pretty lousy).

Lithium prices are in meltdown mode in China at the moment, and I gotta say, that’s not a clickbait exaggeration. The benchmark November 2024 contract for lithium carbonate on China’s GFEX exchange lost another 4.6% today in a procession that would have been even worse if not for a tiny bounce (to be fair on some decent volume) into the close. That’s a new contract low, it’s also a record low for any benchmark GFEX lithium carbonate contract since they started trading just over a year ago.

The benchmark November 2024 contract for lithium carbonate on China’s GFEX exchange

Elsewhere, spodumene prices were down another 2.5% as per the SMM Spodumene Concentrate Index, and the Platts Australian price is down 10% in the last two trading sessions.

Many on social media are calling this the final capitulation – as if this is some sort of consolation for the fact they’ve held onto the bottom-left-top-right lithium demand narrative until this bitter end – and that end is nigh! I agree, that narrative is probably correct – but there’s always two sides to the price equation – it is clear lithium supply has something to contribute also!

The iron ore price decline is nowhere near as spectacular as the lithium one, but it’s starting to get a bit pointy. If you’re prepared for the bad news (sticking your head in the sand until it all blows over…one day...is also an option), I have fundamental analysis on the iron ore market in an earlier article here…and technical analysis in ChartWatch below.

Tough times for ASX resources stocks…

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Overhead points of supply potentially proving pesky...

The last time we covered was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 12 August.

In that update, I said “ideally, we knock that close above 7889 quickly. If it occurs with strong demand-side candles and a return to good price action – then we’re an excellent chance to reclaim the 8149 high”.

The significance of 7889, as I pointed out, is it’s the “balance point” of the recent correction – a halfway inflection point within the demand-supply spectrum. I also noted the importance of also emphatically closing above the 7861 static point of supply and the dynamic supply expected at the short term downtrend ribbon.

Today’s candle is far from the glowing endorsement of sufficient demand-side control to do any of the above.

Yes, we pushed strongly above all of those levels early, peaking at 7910.2, but by the close, we had faded to 7850.7 so that only the short term downtrend ribbon was bettered – and only just. The upward pointing shadow that this price action creates speaks of nagging and persistent latent excess supply in the system at higher levels.

Candles from here are critical. We want to see that supply eliminated quickly or we run the risk of rolling over here – the balance point being the balance point and all…

As always, white-bodied candles and or downward pointing shadows are the fingerprints of demand, the opposite – fingerprints of supply.

The long term uptrend ribbon remains the key (dynamic) demand zone. Supply sits at today’s high and up to 8149.

Iron Ore 62% (Front month, back-adjusted) SGX

Need to turnaround in a big way...right...about...now!

The last time we covered iron ore was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 8 August.

In that update, we noted the “extreme pressure” being exerted on the 94.00-99.20 demand zone. Today’s black candle takes us deep into the zone, and if it closes on its low – would be an excellent signal of the supply-side’s total domination of the price action.

I don’t have a great deal to add today apart from bringing this potential (impending?) breakdown to your attention.

The iron ore price must print some demand-side candles (i.e., white-bodied and or downward pointing shadows) very quickly here or it’s going to get nasty. The bigger the better, and preferably on significant volume to signal weak-handed supply has capitulated, shorts are covering back, and positional and speculative demand is coming in.

Looking back up at the chart, it just seems incongruous to mention shorts covering back and/or strategic demand coming back in any time soon!

It’s also worth reading the article I wrote today about the concept of “cost support” in the iron more market, as well as current iron ore market demand-supply dynamics, and broker price forecasts. I also provide a weekly chart that shows the next key zone of demand isn’t until 78-80.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Wednesday

• 22:30 USA Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m July (+0.2% m/m and +3.4% p.a. forecast vs +0.1% m/m and +3.4% p.a. June)

Thursday

• 11:30 AUS Employment Change & Unemployment Rate July

  • Employment Change: +20,400 forecast vs +50,200 in June

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.1% forecast vs 4.1% in June

• 12:00 CHN Data Dump July

  • Industrial Production y/y +5.3% forecast vs +5.3% June

  • Retail Sales y/y +2.6% forecast vs +2.0% June

  • Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y +3.9% forecast vs +3.9% June

  • Unemployment Rate +5.1% forecast vs +5.0% June

  • New Home Prices m/m -0.65% forecast vs -0.67% June

• 22:30 USA Core Retail Sales July (+0.1% m/m vs +0.4% m/m June)

Friday

• 09:30 AUS RBA Governor Michell Bullock Speaks

Saturday

• 00:00 USA University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index August (66.7 forecast vs 66.4 July)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +24.3% Appen (APX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +11.1% Bravura Solutions (BVS) - Annual Report for FY24 and FY24 Result and On Market Buyback, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +9.4% Iperionx (IPX) - IperionX Achieves First Titanium Furnace Production Run

• +9.3% Jupiter Mines (JMS) - No news, tin price has rallied last few trading sessions

• +9.1% Latin Resources (LRS) - No news, still in prevailing short and long term downtrends - bounce is small compared to decline since May, dodged the broader ASX lithium sector bullet today 🤔

• +8.8% Strike Energy (STX) - No news, still in prevailing short and long term downtrends - bounce is small compared to decline since May, energy commodity prices have been strong last few sessions 🤔

• +8.3% Navigator Global Investments (NGI) - No news, bounced off long term uptrend ribbon 🔎📈

• +8.1% Immutep (IMM) - First Participant Dosed in Phase I Study of IMP761

• +7.2% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +7.2% Pro Medicus (PME) - Annual Report 2024 and PME FY2024 results presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +6.8% Seven Group (SVW) - Seven Group Holdings 2024 Annual Report and FY24 Results Investor Presentation, bounced off long term uptrend ribbon 🔎📈

• +6.6% Evolution Mining (EVN) - Appendix 4E and FY24 Financial Report and FY24 Financial Results Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +5.3% Orora (ORA) - 2024 Annual Report and Investor Presentation Results Year Ended 30 June 2024

• +4.2% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +4.1% Amotiv (AOV) - FY24 Appendix 4E & Financial Report and 2024 Full Year Results Presentation

Trading lower

• -9.6% Fenix Resources (FEX) - No news, broad ASX iron ore sector weakness on continued falls in iron ore price (see ChartWatch)

• -4.6% Mineral Resources (MIN) - Ditto ASX iron ore, but lithium prices are also down heavily again in China = double whammy! Fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -4.6% Fortescue (FMG) - Ditto ASX iron ore, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -3.8% Champion Iron (CIA) - Ditto ASX iron ore, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -3.7% ASX (ASX) - ASX Statement on ASIC Proceedings

• -3.7% Deterra Royalties (DRR) - Ditto ASX iron ore, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -3.4% Stanmore Resources (SMR) - Coking coal prices have also taken a dive (along with iron ore = key steel making ingredients), closed below long term trend ribbon 🔎📉

• -3.2% Abacus Storage King (ASK) - No news since yesterday's FY24 Investor Presentation, broker response generally positive…📉

• -2.8% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, also a tough day for ASX uranium stocks...fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -2.8% BHP Group (BHP) - Ditto ASX iron ore, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -2.6% Rio Tinto (RIO) - Ditto ASX iron ore, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -2.5% Bluescope Steel (BSL) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📈

• -2.5% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📈

• -2.4% Boss Energy (BOE) - No news, also a tough day for ASX uranium stocks...fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

Broker Notes

AGL Energy (AGL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.28

Amotiv (AOV)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.80

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $13.00

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.40

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.35

Australian Vanadium (AVL)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.08

Aurizon (AZJ)

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.60 from $4.10

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.18 from $1.45

BWP Trust (BWP)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $3.40

Car Group (CAR)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $42.00 from $40.00

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $85.00

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $95.00

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $110.00

Challenger (CGF)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.30 from $6.95

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.00 from $7.50

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $8.55 from $7.85

• Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $7.50 from $7.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.20 from $7.40

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.30 from $8.00

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.03

Computershare (CPU)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $30.00

• Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $28.60 from $27.50

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $29.50

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $345.00 from $335.00

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $352.00 from $355.30

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $330.00

• Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $330.75 from $315.35

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $319.00 from $317.30

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $278.00 from $319.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $340.00

Droneshield (DRO)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.30

Dexus Industria Reit (DXI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.11

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.40

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.81

Guzman y Gomez (GYG)

• Initiated at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $31.00

Homeco Daily Needs Reit (HDN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.40

James Hardie Industries (JHX)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $50.90 from $51.10

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $55.85 from $57.60

• Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $52.00 from $50.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $64.00 from $66.60

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $59.00 from $58.00

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $53.00 from $55.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $49.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $57.50 from $60.00

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $11.70

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $12.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $10.97

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi; Price Target: $20.45 from $19.00

• Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $17.20 from $17.75

• Retained at underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $18.15 from $18.60

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $21.00 from $16.75

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $24.00

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $22.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $20.50 from $21.00

• Downgraded to marketweight from overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $21.04 from $23.52

Orora (ORA)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.30

Region Group (RGN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.38 from $2.42

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.50

Seek (SEK)

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $19.00 from $21.00

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $26.80 from $27.00

• Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $19.50 from $20.60

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $23.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $31.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $25.40 from $27.10

Seven Group (SVW)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $43.00

Seven West Media (SWM)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $0.16

Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $12.20 from $11.40

• Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $14.30 from $12.67

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.90 from $12.30

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.50

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $14.00 from $13.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $11.20 from $10.30

Scans