News | Market Wraps
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 pares losses as CBA, NAB lead bank sector resurgence, resources slump on sagging copper price
Mentioned
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 11.7 points lower, down 0.13%.
Aussie stocks staged a promising recovery from their early morning lows, but the mix of winners, and the ratio of winners to losers, casts some doubt on this rally's sustainability. Resources stocks were lower on the back of sagging commodity prices, and Tech stocks slumped on the back of the Nasdaq's drop on Tuesday.
But it wasn't all doom and gloom, as the big banks (National Australia Bank (NAB) (+1.7%) & Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+1.3%)), Telstra (TLS) (+1.4%), and Coles Group (COL) (+0.8%) led a "defensive rally".
Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Today in Review
Wed 05 Nov 25, 4:56pm (AEST)
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
| ASX 200 | 8,802.0 | -0.13% |
| All Ords | 9,071.2 | -0.30% |
| Small Ords | 3,673.9 | -1.43% |
| All Tech | 3,895.6 | -1.70% |
| Emerging Companies | 2,775.7 | -3.02% |
Currency | ||
| AUD/USD | 0.6499 | +0.14% |
US Futures | ||
| S&P 500 | 6,796.5 | -0.08% |
| Dow Jones | 47,271.0 | +0.12% |
| Nasdaq | 25,524.75 | -0.20% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Sector | ||
| Communication Services | 1,834.5 | +0.70% |
| Utilities | 9,874.0 | +0.64% |
| Financials | 9,853.7 | +0.59% |
| Consumer Staples | 11,676.1 | +0.36% |
| Industrials | 8,488.3 | +0.26% |
| Health Care | 34,992.1 | -0.10% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 4,167.2 | -0.13% |
| Energy | 8,613.4 | -0.17% |
| Materials | 18,886.6 | -1.06% |
| Real Estate | 3,960.9 | -1.18% |
| Information Technology | 2,638.3 | -2.67% |
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Markets
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ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 11.7 points lower at 8,802.0, 0.78% from its session low and 0.26% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by 86 to 186.
Yep! 86 to 186. Don't let that intraday chart fool you – it's still rotten in Denmark! 😉
Fund flows: Risk-off "rally"
Just like Monday – the intraday chart looks half decent… smacks of buy the dip… but dig a little deeper, and you’ll see it’s a thin façade of strength.
The market breadth is a dead giveaway – it’s been roughly 2:1 fallers-to-decliners all this week. Add in the fact the best performing sectors were highly defensive*: Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.7%), Utilities (XUJ) (+0.6%), Financials (XFJ) (+0.6%), Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.4%) – and it’s not a great look.
(*I.e., the stuff you buy when you don’t really want to buy anything but that superannuation guarantee money keeps rolling in and so you must… and in it rolls… my god, when will it stop… bloody hell Barry, the Armorgard truck just rolled up with another 50 mill… make it stop… make it stop!!! Yes, fund managers… I know that’s you! 😉).
Big banks (National Australia Bank (NAB) (+1.7%) & Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+1.3%)), Telstra (TLS) (+1.4%), Coles Group (COL) (+0.8%), some healthcare (Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) (+1.6%) & Cochlear (COH) (+1.5%))... defence, defence, defence...
At the other end of the spectrum… and a bit of a change today in that high-PE (tech) has joined low-PE (resources): Resources (XJR) (-0.9%) and Information Technology (XIJ) (-2.7%) bore the brunt of the losses.
Copper is peeling back from a recent all-time high... (click here for full size image)
Copper took a big hit last night on the LME and COMEX, aluminium was also sharply lower, and the rest of the base metals and iron ore were also down. Lithium is only sightly higher after its big drop yesterday (on rumours of further mine restarts in China – no actual news today). Precious metals prices were down overnight, but are slightly higher in Asian trade – not that this helped the Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-1.0%).
Tech got belted on the back of the Nasdaq sell-off last night – but we know this sector has been on the outs for many, many weeks now…
So, whilst everything makes sense within our framework of recent sector rotations… it’s far from a resounding vote of confidence in Aussie shares… ⚠️
Today's best blue chip gainers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brambles (BXB) | $23.92 | +$0.51 | +2.2% | -2.9% | +29.2% |
National Australia Bank (NAB) | $44.53 | +$0.74 | +1.7% | -0.1% | +16.5% |
ASX (ASX) | $57.29 | +$0.91 | +1.6% | -1.3% | -10.7% |
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) | $32.70 | +$0.51 | +1.6% | -2.2% | -0.8% |
Cochlear (COH) | $284.82 | +$4.14 | +1.5% | -0.7% | -0.1% |
Telstra Group (TLS) | $4.91 | +$0.07 | +1.4% | +1.7% | +28.5% |
Commonwealth Bank (CBA) | $176.35 | +$2.24 | +1.3% | +4.1% | +24.1% |
Amcor PLC (AMC) | $12.17 | +$0.15 | +1.2% | +0.2% | -24.0% |
Scentre Group (SCG) | $4.06 | +$0.05 | +1.2% | -0.5% | +17.3% |
Medibank Private (MPL) | $4.90 | +$0.06 | +1.2% | +1.7% | +38.0% |
Cleanaway Waste (CWY) | $2.58 | +$0.03 | +1.2% | -11.6% | -4.4% |
Washington H. Soul Patts (SOL) | $37.83 | +$0.42 | +1.1% | -0.1% | +14.3% |
Downer EDI (DOW) | $7.72 | +$0.08 | +1.0% | +1.8% | +40.1% |
AGL Energy (AGL) | $8.87 | +$0.09 | +1.0% | -1.2% | -15.8% |
APA Group (APA) | $9.21 | +$0.09 | +1.0% | +3.0% | +35.4% |
Woodside Energy (WDS) | $25.16 | +$0.22 | +0.9% | +9.3% | +4.6% |
Endeavour Group (EDV) | $3.62 | +$0.03 | +0.8% | +1.4% | -22.5% |
Transurban Group (TCL) | $14.57 | +$0.12 | +0.8% | +3.1% | +15.5% |
Coles Group (COL) | $21.97 | +$0.17 | +0.8% | -5.6% | +24.8% |
Insurance Australia (IAG) | $7.82 | +$0.06 | +0.8% | -5.8% | +5.8% |
Today's worst blue chip losers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nextdc (NXT) | $15.69 | -$0.8 | -4.9% | -6.9% | -3.5% |
Life360 (360) | $48.53 | -$2.23 | -4.4% | -11.5% | +118.8% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | $44.45 | -$1.57 | -3.4% | +5.1% | +9.5% |
Goodman Group (GMG) | $31.23 | -$1.1 | -3.4% | -7.6% | -14.8% |
James Hardie Industries (JHX) | $29.48 | -$0.99 | -3.2% | -2.5% | -38.6% |
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) | $13.40 | -$0.45 | -3.2% | -30.5% | +76.3% |
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) | $2.98 | -$0.1 | -3.2% | +14.6% | +3.1% |
Fortescue (FMG) | $19.97 | -$0.52 | -2.5% | +3.7% | +2.5% |
IGO (IGO) | $5.06 | -$0.13 | -2.5% | -4.9% | -4.7% |
Technology One (TNE) | $36.06 | -$0.79 | -2.1% | -7.1% | +48.3% |
Reliance Worldwide (RWC) | $3.96 | -$0.08 | -2.0% | -1.2% | -21.9% |
Ramsay Health Care (RHC) | $30.79 | -$0.6 | -1.9% | -3.0% | -21.6% |
Pinnacle Investment Group (PNI) | $18.28 | -$0.32 | -1.7% | -1.9% | -9.2% |
Ramelius Resources (RMS) | $3.20 | -$0.05 | -1.5% | -21.4% | +37.3% |
Pro Medicus (PME) | $254.57 | -$3.71 | -1.4% | -14.6% | +30.0% |
AMP (AMP) | $1.725 | -$0.025 | -1.4% | +5.5% | +20.6% |
Wisetech Global (WTC) | $67.55 | -$0.96 | -1.4% | -21.3% | -41.5% |
South32 (S32) | $3.02 | -$0.04 | -1.3% | +3.1% | -18.8% |
Block (XYZ) | $111.34 | -$1.46 | -1.3% | -5.3% | +0.4% |
Seek (SEK) | $26.66 | -$0.34 | -1.3% | -4.9% | +9.1% |
ChartWatch
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)
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S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)
Check the candle on 3-Nov (Monday). Downward pointing shadow into 8809-43 – the demand-side buying the dip at an area in price they were active before.
Tuesday’s black-bodied candle with close near the low shows that particular lot got their fill! Yet 8809 still somehow held…
Today, 8809 slipped, but we find yet another long downward pointing shadow into a welly defined zone of demand of 8731-38.
This critical demand zone is holding… For now! 🤞
In yesterday's Evening Wrap, I ran a poll asking your opinion on the next point I should cut risk on “my ASX risk bucket” – presently at 2/3RP – to 1/2RP.
42% of you said on a close below 8731. Based on today's demand-side candle 42% of you are therefore spot-on correct! For now! (Note that sustained lousy market breadth 🤔!)
Interestingly, 21% of you appear to be thoroughly fed up with the Old Tin Pot, compared to 16% that retain unwavering faith in it! For the 21% who said "Cut on a close below 8809", that's today, and you may still yet be proven correct. I hope not – but it's still a very real possibility.
The price action today told us: 8731 is an important line in the sand.
It’s where the buy-the-dippers who matter, i.e., the key, influential demand-side movers and shakers – entered the market to soak up the prevailing supply and then turned the tide with respect to price.
Also consider, just how bad the XJO chart looked at today’s low of 8733 – another long black candle, really threatening the sustainability of the short and medium term uptrend. It looked pretty darn scary!
Yet, that’s where demand kicked in.
They didn’t care how bad it looked – because they know better. They know better than us lowly chart readers and mum and dad investors who don’t determine the major turning points in the XJO price! All these “investors that actually matter” saw was value… opportunity… a reason to put their capital at risk.
Re-read those last few sentences a few times. It’s kinda important – it tells us that the big money tends to buy pullbacks when most of the dumb money is probably thinking it’s the worst time to do so!
Really, that’s kinda how the market must work when you think about it!
Anyways, they’re right… For now! 8731 holds. In theory, today’s candle augurs well for a follow through to the upside tomorrow – MOTN. Monday-Tuesday shows that it’s not “ALWAYS”!
View: I remain comfortable at 2/3RP (2/3 Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 67%).
Key levels: 8831 is the next key level that the price must not cross to maintain any semblance this is still a short term uptrend! A move to 1/2RP on a close below there; A close above the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 8918-8925) would help confirm the demand-side remains active in the system.
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Economy
Today
There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today
Later this week
Wednesday
USA tentative due to US government shutdown – JOLTS Job Openings
Thursday
02:00 USA October ISM Services PMI (50..8 forecast vs 50.0 previous)
Friday
No major economic announcements expected this day
Saturday
USA tentative due to US government shutdown – Core PCE Price Index m/m
USA tentative due to US government shutdown – Non-Farm Employment Change
Latest News
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
+11.7% EZZ Life Science Holdings (EZZ) - Dividend/Distribution.
+6.1% Amaero (3DA) - No news.
+5.9% Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) - Update on status of FIRB approval & second court hearing.
+5.3% Adairs (ADH) - No news, upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans (but price target cut to $2.60 from $2.90).
+4.8% Global X Gold Bullion (Currency Hedged) ETF (GHLD) - No news, (gold bullion ETF).
+4.4% Encounter Resources (ENR) - No news.
+4.1% MLG OZ (MLG) - No news.
+4.0% Kingston Resources (KSN) - No news.
+3.7% Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq-100 Complex ETF (SNAS) - No news, (short Nasdaq ETF).
Trading lower
-18.5% Trigg Minerals (TMG) - Continued negative response to 04-Oct CSAMT Findings - a Large-Scale Hydrothermal Antimony System, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.
-17.2% Aeris Resources (AIS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Copper sector today, (Copper price sharply lower on both LME and COMEX overnight).
-15.3% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.
-14.9% Lumos Diagnostics Holdings (LDX) - No news.
-13.1% Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.
-12.4% St George Mining (SGQ) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.
-12.3% Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.
-11.5% Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today.
-10.5% Elsight (ELS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today.
-10.3% Meteoric Resources (MEI) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.
-10.0% Northern Minerals (NTU) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.
-9.9% American Rare Earths (ARR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.
-9.7% Megaport (MP1) - No news 🤔.
Broker Moves
Atlantic Lithium (A11)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.23
Adairs (ADH)
Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.90
AGL Energy (AGL)
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.68
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)
Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $73.46 from $74.45
Eagers Automotive (APE)
Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $33.00 from $18.70
Ballard Mining (BM1)
Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.05 from $0.80
BlueScope Steel (BSL)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.35
Collins Foods (CKF)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.07 from $10.13
Downer EDI (DOW)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.65
G8 Education (GEM)
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $0.72 from $0.90
Global Lithium Resources (GL1)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.50 from $0.35
Goodman Group (GMG)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.73
Hansen Technologies (HSN)
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.30
IDP Education (IEL)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.00
ImpediMed (IPD)
Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.13 from $0.14
Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)
Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $163.00 from $252.00
Lovisa Holdings (LOV)
Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $42.50
Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.40
News Corporation (NWS)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $67.50 from $70.00
NEXTDC (NXT)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $21.45
Origin Energy (ORG)
Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.11
QBE Insurance Group (QBE)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $23.30
Rox Resources (RXL)
Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.10
St George Mining (SGQ)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.20
Spirit Technology Solutions (ST1)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.65 from $0.60
Sovereign Metals (SVM)
Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.65 from $1.00
Universal Store Holdings (UNI)
Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $10.50 from $10.80
West African Resources (WAF)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.00
Scans
Top Gainers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| VBC | Verbrec Ltd | $0.15 | +30.44% |
| CPN | Caspin Resources Ltd | $0.12 | +23.71% |
| SRR | Sarama Resources Ltd | $0.049 | +22.50% |
| MML | Mclaren Minerals Ltd | $0.024 | +20.00% |
| HAL | Halo Technologies Holdings Ltd | $0.045 | +18.42% |
Top Fallers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR1 | Austral Resources Australia Ltd | $0.047 | -70.63% |
| DTI | DTI Group Ltd | $0.021 | -30.00% |
| FRX | Flexiroam Ltd | $0.018 | -28.00% |
| T3D | 333D Ltd | $0.075 | -25.00% |
| ANG | Austin Engineering Ltd | $0.215 | -23.21% |
52 Week Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| VBC | Verbrec Ltd | $0.15 | +30.44% |
| GR8 | Great Dirt Resources Ltd | $0.23 | +17.95% |
| VBS | Vectus Biosystems Ltd | $0.165 | +13.79% |
| AMS | Atomos Ltd | $0.031 | +10.71% |
| ARC | ARC Funds Ltd | $0.11 | +10.00% |
52 Week Lows
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR1 | Austral Resources Australia Ltd | $0.047 | -70.63% |
| ANG | Austin Engineering Ltd | $0.215 | -23.21% |
| ENL | Enlitic Inc | $0.021 | -19.23% |
| AXP | AXP Energy Ltd | $0.013 | -18.75% |
| GEN | Genmin Ltd | $0.019 | -17.39% |
Near Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCI | Perpetual Credit Income Trust | $1.20 | -0.42% |
| WVOL | Ishares MSCI World Ex Aust Minimum Volatility ETF | $44.56 | +0.25% |
| IAGPF | Insurance Australia Group Ltd | $105.58 | +0.07% |
| VVLU | Vanguard Global Value Equity Active ETF | $76.91 | +0.01% |
| IHD | Ishares S&P/ASX DIV Opportunities Esg Screened ETF | $16.30 | -0.18% |
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| PME | Pro Medicus Ltd | $254.57 | -1.44% |
| OML | Ooh!Media Ltd | $1.355 | -1.46% |
| GMG | Goodman Group | $31.23 | -3.40% |
| FAIR | Betashares Australian Sustainability Leaders ETF | $21.17 | -0.24% |
| WES | Wesfarmers Ltd | $82.13 | -1.74% |
