ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 5th November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, November 5. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 off lows but now in no man's land

[2:10 pm] ASX 200 currently down 0.3%, off session lows of -0.91%. A defensive rotation is taking place, with Utilities (+0.76%), Staples (+0.65%), Financials (+0.59%), Telcos (+0.36%) and Industrials (+0.10%) higher, while tech and resources tank. The index has mustered a bounce off intraday lows, but still down six of the last seven sessions and trading below the 50-day moving average. I call the current state of play 'no man's land' as momentum has taken a turn for worse, while moving averages are starting to slope downwards. Headlines have flipped relatively bearish on poor breadth, valuation concerns and hawkish rate revisions. However, the index is slightly oversold and increasingly overdue for a bounce.

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Resources smashed

[12:49 pm] Pretty much everything across the resource spectrum is trading sharply lower today, including:

• Iron ore: Fenix Resources (-9.7%), Fortescue (-3.8%), MinRes (-3.5%), Rio Tinto (-2.4%), BHP (-1.0%)

• Copper: Aeris Resources (-15.0%), 29Metals (-11.8%), Firefly Metals (-7.4%), Capstone Copper (-6.4%), Sandfire Resources (-3.4%)

• Gold: St Barbara (-10.1%), Resolute Mining (-8.3%), Meeka Metals (-7.1%), Aurelia Metals (-8.5%), Black Cat Syndicate (-6.8%), Bellevue Gold (-6.3%), Alkane Resources (-6.3%)

• Uranium: Alligator Energy (-10.7%), Peninsula Energy (-9.4%), Paladin Energy (-8.5%), Bannerman Energy (-7.5%), Boss Energy (-5.9%), Deep Yellow (-5.9%)

• Critical metals: Brazilian Rare Earhts (-14.3%), Arafura Rare Earths (-11.3%), Australian Strategic Metals (-10.8%), Lindian Resources (-5.8%), Syrah Resources (-6.1%), Chalice Mining (-5.2%), Hastings Metals (-5.1%), Iluka Resources (-4.5%), Lynas Rare Earths (-3.5%)

• Coal: Coronado Global (-5.6%), Stanmore Resources (-4.5%), Whitehaven Coal (-2.3%), New Hope (-1.5%)

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A heavy day for equities

[12:47 pm] Very weak day for stocks, with a risk barometer like the S&P/ASX Emerging Companies Index down 4.6% and hovering around intraday lows with no bounce in sight.

The index is now down 14% since its 14-Oct high and sliced right through the 50-day moving average (green). Volatile times ahead.

S&P/ASX Emerging Companies daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[11:38 am] Lots of blue-chip defensives slightly higher, while gold, lithium and defence stocks are trading sharply lower.

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Australian industry index improves

[11:29 am] The Australian Industry Index improved by 4.2 points to -11.2 seasonally adjusted in October, still well-off neutral levels (0) but the highest in over a year.

Key takeaways:

• The employment indicator returned to neutral for the first time in 18 months, led upwards by improving access to labour supply in the construction industry.

• Construction rose in the month, and in trend terms has seen steady improvement over the last year as supply constraints ease while market conditions improve.

• Manufacturing performance continued to weaken, particularly in the metals sector which is struggling with high energy prices and global trade headwinds.

• Pricing indicators suggest that industry is beginning to raise prices again after a year of wearing cost increases on the balance sheet.

Source: AI Group

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Carma flops on ASX debut

[11:08 am] The much anticipated Carma is trading at $2.53 after listing at 11:00 am AEDT (vs. offer price of $2.70).

It's suddenly become a challenging environment for equities, with the S&P/ASX Emerging Companies Index is down 3.5% today and down 12.6% since its 14 October record high. We've also seen a similar-sized (and profitable at ~14.6x FY26 NPAT) name like Advanced Innergy close at 96 cents on its debut vs. its $1.00 per share IPO.

For context, Carma is a technology-led, full-stack digital platform for buying and selling used vehicles in Australia. The company sources vehicles directly from consumers, auctions, and fleet partners, which are then transported to its Sydney reconditioning facility. Each car undergoes a 300-point inspection and professional reconditioning process, including mechanical checks, detailing, photography, and compliance.

It's currently loss-making, though the company is forecasting a substantial jump in revenues between FY25-26 while losses are set to remain relatively flat year-on-year. It's interesting that the company forecasts 78% revenue growth in FY25-26 despite revenues growing just 3.6% in FY24-25.

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ASX 200 tries to bounce but miners weigh

[10:30 am] The ASX 200 is down 0.26% in early trade as relatively positive sector performance is offset by a broad selloff among resource sectors.

• Iron ore heavyweights BHP (-1.2%), Fortescue (-2.1%) and Rio Tinto (-1.5%) broadly lower

• Gold miners struggling after prices fell 1.7% overnight to US$3,931/oz, most names are down around 1-3%

• Copper miners like Sandfire (-2.1%) and Capstone Copper (-6.0%) falling in-line with the pullback in copper prices overnight

• Lithium names like Pilbara Minerals (-5.6%) and Liontown (-7.7%) also sharply lower, giving back recent gains

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

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Goodman Group 1Q26 update highlights

[10:26 am] Goodman Group just wrapped up a conference call for its 1Q26 update. The key highlights include:

• Data centres are becoming the dominant focus, projected to represent over 75% of the $17.5 billion+ development workbook by June 2026, with 500 megawatts of project activation planned as the first stage of 1.8 gigawatts of total capacity.

• Development strategy emphasises metro cloud-based data centres near major cities, with secured power increases driven by Tokyo project commencement and ongoing negotiations for additional capacity. Australian and European data centre partnerships expected in 2H26, though no North American partnerships are planned for FY26.

• Industrial development remains focused on high-quality, tech-enabled facilities with significant US and Western Sydney inquiries for larger projects extending into FY27-28.

• Capital management will rely on partnering all data centre developments with institutional investors to maintain low leverage, with strong fundraising progress in Europe (new fund) and Australia, though regulatory timing may delay announcements beyond February results.

• Leasing demand is robust across all regions (Europe, Australia, Japan) with major customer deals expected through calendar 2026, positive rental growth and low vacancy rates anticipated in the logistics portfolio, and further US dual-purpose site acquisitions planned within six months.

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Nanosonics to launch on-market buyback

[9:51 am] Nanosonics plans to launch an on-market buyback of up to $20 million shares in FY26, reflecting "the Company’s strong financial position, consistent cash generation and confidence in its long-term growth outlook."

CEO comment: “The Board is confident Nanosonics has sufficient cash reserves to fund its strategic initiatives, including the continued growth of the trophon business, the controlled market release and broader commercialisation of CORIS, and pursuing selective potential bolt-on acquisitions. The buy-back is a reflection of that confidence and our commitment to delivering long-term value to shareholders."

Not a material on-market buyback given the company's $1.37 billion market cap.

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Copper prices dip

[9:49 am] A sharp pullback for copper prices overnight, down 2.4% to US$4.95/lb. This drove the Copper Miners ETF (COPX) down 3.7% to the lowest since 29 September.

Copper daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Hansen Technologies acquires Digitalk

[9:35 am] Hansen Technologies entered into a binding agreement to acquire 100% of Digitalk Group, a provider of Mobile Virtual Network Operator and carrier-grade platforms for the global communications industry.

Transaction highlights:

• Purchase price of £33.1 million (circa A$66.4 million), funded through a mix of existing cash reserves and debt

• Digitalk reported FY25 revenue of £10.5m (over 90% recurring) and Cash EBITDA of £3.3m, reflecting an acquisition multiple of approximately 10x enterprise value to Cash EBITDA

• Digitalk serves approximately 150 customers across more than 30 countries with solutions that are highly complementary to Hansen’s Global Communications Suite

• Transaction expected to be immediately EPS accretive

To add some perspective, Hansen reported FY25 operating revenue and underlying cash EBITDA of $392.5 million and $93.4 million respectively.

Overall, the 10x EV/cash EBITDA multiple is decent and appear to offer mid single digit cash EBITDA accretion (ex-synergies).

Company page: Hansen Technologies (HSN)

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Woodside's Capital Markets Day highlights

[9:28 am] Woodside is projecting strong cash flow growth into the early 2030s, underpinned by a major project pipeline spanning ammonia, LNG, and oil developments across multiple regions.

• Net operating cash is expected to reach $9 billion by the early 2030s, representing over 6% compound annual growth in sales and cash flow from 2024, with a pathway to a 50% increase in dividend per share from 2032.

• Near-term catalysts include the Beaumont New Ammonia project expecting first ammonia this year and the Scarborough Energy Project on track to begin LNG shipments in H2 of next year.

• Medium-term projects include Mexico's Trion field targeting first oil in 2028 and Louisiana LNG targeting start-up in 2029.

• CEO commentary: “Woodside is extracting full value from every asset through safe, reliable operations and a focus on innovation to reduce operating costs and increase efficiencies."

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Pexa: 1Q26 update

[9:22 am] No big surprises from the 1Q26 update, with FY26 guidance reaffirmed. The key numbers for the first quarter include

• Total transaction volumes up 6% year-on-year

• Total national market penetration was maintained at 90%

• UK business Optima and Smoove saw re-mortgage completion volumes up 32% and 22% respectively

CEO commentary: “We delivered a solid trading performance in the first quarter of FY26 across both Australia and the UK. In Australia, property transaction volumes grew 6%, driven by strong refinancing activity. The UK market is gaining momentum, showing clear signs of growth after a period of subdued activity.

Company page: Pexa Group (PXA)

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Goodman Group: 1Q26 update

[9:13 am] Goodman Group reported its Q1 FY26 update, which noted:

• Like-for-like net property income up 4.2%

• Occupancy at 96.1%

• Asset under management unchanged at $72.1 billion as at 30 September 2025

• Work in progress of $12.4 billion, with projected June 2026 WIP of over $17.5 billion

• Reaffirmed FY26 operating EPS growth of 9% year-on-year

CEO commentary: “Logistics customers are focused on significant capital investment in AI and robotic technology, to drive automation and productivity gains. This is particularly evident across larger customers and is likely to continue to see consolidation across the sector into larger, more advanced facilities in prime locations. Combined with minimal vacancy and limited new supply in our markets, this should support future growth and activity."

Company page: Goodman Group (GMG)

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Austin Engineering cuts FY26 guidance

[9:08 am] Austin Engineering has announced steep cuts to its FY26 guidance, with management noting: "we have undertaken a thorough review of the internal and external factors that are impacting our business and moved to quickly implement measures to address and overcome them."

• Revenue guidance cut to $370-380m vs. prior $390-410m (6.2% downgrade at the midpoint)

• Underlying EBIT guidance cut to $30-34m vs. prior $40-46m (25.6% downgrade at the midpoint)

The stock is already down 45% year-to-date following a series of downbeat announcements including weaker-than-expected FY25 results (26 Aug), FY25 guidance downgrade (11 Jun) and soft initial FY25 guidance (27 Feb).

This places the company in an awkward spot as it recently launched an on-market buyback of 10% of ordinary shares with the view that:

• The on-market share buy-back reflects both the strength of our balance sheet and the confidence we have in Austin’s long-term growth prospects."

• “With strong cash generation expected and a clear capital management framework, we see the buy-back as an excellent use of a portion of our capital, given the current metrics of Austin shares."

Company page: Austin Engineering (ANG)

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Tyro appoints new CEO

[9:04 am] Tyro Payments has appointed Nigel Lee as CEO, effective 12 January 2026. Mr Lee has spent four years as the Regional Managing Director Asia Pacific and Chief Customer Officer at Ingenico, a cloud-based payments platform.

Company page: Tyro Payments (TYR)

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Bluescope CEO to retire

[8:55 am] Bluescope CEO Mark Vassella announced his plans to retire as of 1 February, 2026. The company has named Tania Archibald, the current CEO of Bluescope's Australian steel products business, as the replacement CEO.

Mr Vassella has been with the company since 2018 and beneficially owns 1.13 million shares (approx $24.9m).

Company page: Bluescope Steel (BSL)

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Vault transitions logistics to owner-operator model

[8:53 am] Vault is transitioning its King of the Hills (KoTH) mine to an owner-operator model from January 2027, deploying a significantly larger fleet to support a roughly 35% increase in mining activity. The announcement does not appear too material, as the company reaffirmed its FY26 production and cost guidance (and no material capex changes).

• The company will deploy two 360-tonne and one 260-tonne excavators supported by 190-tonne haul trucks to handle average annual material movements of approximately 14 million bank cubic metres over the Ore Reserve life.

• Vault's FY26 Leonora production and AISC cost guidance remains unchanged, along with the FY27 and FY28 outlook provided in September 2026, with approximately A$2 million in deposits for long-lead fleet items expected in Q2 FY26 as the company reviews equipment financing and hybrid funding options.

Company page: Vault Minerals (VAU)

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Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warn of a stock market correction

[8:51 am] Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley CEOs warned of a likely 10-20% equity drawdown within the next two years, framing it as a normal bull market correction rather than a structural concern, while highlighting Asia as a key investment opportunity.

• Goldman's Solomon projected a 10-20% drawdown sometime in the next 12-24 months, while Morgan Stanley's Pick cited 10-15% pullbacks as healthy and not driven by macro crisis.

• Both executives advising clients to remain invested rather than attempt market timing.

• The warnings follow recent cautions from the IMF about sharp corrections and concerns from Fed Chair Powell and Bank of England Governor Bailey about inflated valuations, coming amid a relentless global rally driven by AI gains and rate cut expectations.

• Both firms identified Asia as a bright spot, with Goldman expecting continued capital allocator interest in China as one of the world's largest economies, and Morgan Stanley expressing bullishness on Hong Kong, China, Japan, and India based on distinct growth narratives.

• Morgan Stanley highlighted multi-year investment themes including Japan's corporate governance reforms and India's infrastructure build-out, while singling out China's AI, EV, and biotech sectors as particularly exciting opportunities.

Source: CNBC

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Palantir tanks despite blowout earnings

[8:48 am] Palantir (-7.9%) shares dipped from record highs despite delivering a blowout Q3 result and Q4 guidance, fulled by AI-fueled growth across both government and commercial segments.

• The company posted a 24% EPS beat (21 cents vs. 17 cents expected) and an 8% revenue beat ($1.18 billion vs. $1.09 billion expected), with total revenue jumping 63% year-over-year and net income more than tripling to $475.6 million.

• Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $1.33 billion topped the $1.19 billion consensus, while full-year sales expectations rose to $4.4 billion (vs. $4.17 billion ests) despite the ongoing government shutdown potentially threatening key contracts.

• US government revenue surged 52% to $486 million, bolstered by a recent $10 billion Army contract, while US commercial business more than doubled to $397 million with total contract value for commercial deals quadrupling to $1.31 billion.

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US-China trade: Don't cross these four red lines

[8:46 am] China has outlined four red lines following the Trump-Xi trade truce, signaling the fragile foundation of the agreement amid persistent tensions over technology, Taiwan, and structural economic issues.

Ambassador Xie Feng identified Taiwan, democracy, China's political system, and development rights as non-negotiable core interests, warning that conflicts over tariffs, industry, or technology "will lead to nothing but a dead end."

The trade truce left key issues unresolved, including Beijing's push for access to advanced US semiconductors and American calls for China to rebalance its economy toward domestic consumption to address trade imbalances.

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A record setting shutdown

[8:44 am] The US government shutdown has now reached 35 days, matching the 2018-19 record, with minimal progress toward resolution despite emerging bipartisan discussions and escalating real-world impacts.

• Senate Majority Leader Thune expressed optimism for a deal this week involving a House vote on a continuing resolution extending into 2026, while a bipartisan Senate group is discussing a compromise pairing a two-year ACA tax credit extension with income phase-outs. However, Democratic leadership hasn't endorsed the approach and Republican senators remain divided on the CR.

• Transportation disruptions are intensifying, with nearly 3,000 flights delayed Monday due to air traffic controller call-outs, following Friday's massive delays and 500 cancellations.

• SNAP food assistance beneficiaries are expected to see regular benefits cut in half this month, highlighting the growing impact on social services.

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Overnight risk-off sentiment

[8:42 am] The overnight risk-off sentiment was largely driven by valuation concerns, amplified by Wall Street CEO commentary and stretched tech multiples, though historical patterns suggest dip-buying appetite remains strong.

• Goldman Sachs CEO flagged a likely 10-20% equity drawdown within 12-24 months, while Morgan Stanley's CEO noted expensive valuations but suggested 10-15% pullbacks unrelated to macro events should be welcomed as normal bull market corrections.

• Palantir (-7.9%) emerged as a focal point despite strong earnings, with shares up over 150% year-to-date and trading at an 85x price-to-sales ratio

• South Korea's Hynix's 240% one-day rally prompted Korea Exchange to issue an investment caution.

• Valuation scrutiny feeds into broader concerns around Big Tech index concentration, weak/narrow breadth and potential AI capex bubble risks.

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Why the blog doesn't run some days

[8:27 am] I wanted to give you a quick explanation for the occasional missing days in our blog posts. We're a very small content team, literally just Carl and me. When you don't see a new post, it's usually because I'm either sick, a Melbourne public holiday, or taking annual leave.

We're working on some improvements to make things more reliable, including notifications when new posts go live and hopefully adding resources so the blog can keep running even when I'm away. Thanks for your patience, support and understanding.

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Good morning!

[8:23 am] ASX 200 futures are up 19pts (+0.21%) as of 8:30 am AEDT. The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks broadly lower (S&P 500 -1.17%, Dow -0.53%, Nasdaq -2.04% and Russell 2000 (-1.78%)

• Palantir shares dip ~8% despite blowout Q3 earnings and Q4 guidance, weakness largely attributed to news that Michael Burry announced 5 million put options on the stock

• Bitcoin down ~6% and hovering the US$100,000 level, now down ~20% since 6-Oct record high and entering technical bear market territory

• Market weakness largely attributed to valuation concerns, with various Wall Street CEOs flagging a potential 10-20% pullback in the short-to-medium term

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.