Two big reasons why lithium free fall may have more to go
Tue 20 Aug 24, 9:30am (AEST)
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Market Wraps
/Evening Wrap: ASX 200 notches eight straight wins on stronger tech, gold, BHP, RIO and FMG finally bounce
Market Wraps
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 notches eight straight wins on stronger tech, gold, BHP, RIO and FMG finally bounce
Tue 20 Aug 24, 5:48pm (AEDT)
Stocks in article
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 17.3 points higher, up 0.22%.
Resources and technology companies led the S&P/ASX 200 to its eighth straight gain.
Gold and iron ore companies were prominent in the gainers, including a welcome rebound in shares of BHP Group (BHP), Rio Tinto (RIO), and Fortescue (FMG). Lithium and other battery metals stocks also bounced.
There were several big moves on earnings reports including Monadelphous Group (MND), Judo Capital (JDO), Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC), Baby Bunting Group (BBN) and Ansell (ANN). Elsewhere, Yancoal Australia (YAL) plunged after it failed to declare a dividend in its results released yesterday.
For all the big moves, including in depth technical analysis, and over 120 broker notes...
Let's dive in!
Today in Review
Tue 20 Aug 24, 4:25pm (AEST)
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Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 17.3 points higher at 7,997.7, 0.34% from its session high and 0.22% from its low. Just like yesterday, despite the modest gain in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a narrow 129 to 142.
Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.3%) was the best performing sector today, likely in response to another strong gain in Nuix (NXL) (+8.9%) as well as major constituents Wisetech Global (WTC) (+2.5%) and Xero (XRO) (+1.9%).
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nuix (NXL) | $4.77 | +$0.39 | +8.9% | +51.9% | +230.1% |
Appen (APX) | $1.145 | +$0.085 | +8.0% | +148.9% | -42.3% |
Wisetech Global (WTC) | $94.38 | +$2.31 | +2.5% | +0.3% | +12.3% |
Xero (XRO) | $144.31 | +$2.69 | +1.9% | +8.1% | +26.6% |
Infomedia (IFM) | $1.760 | +$0.03 | +1.7% | +8.3% | +4.1% |
Life360 (360) | $18.42 | +$0.3 | +1.7% | +14.7% | +114.9% |
Weebit Nano (WBT) | $2.09 | +$0.03 | +1.5% | -11.1% | -60.2% |
Technology One (TNE) | $22.92 | +$0.3 | +1.3% | +21.9% | +56.3% |
Nextdc (NXT) | $17.52 | +$0.14 | +0.8% | +4.0% | +33.2% |
The best ASX technology stocks today
Utilities (XUJ) (+0.9%) did well again today as AGL Energy (AGL) (+0.3%) and Origin Energy (ORG) (+1.7%) continued their winning ways, but the most interesting move today was in Resources (XJR) (+0.9%) which enjoyed a rare gain.
As far as rare gains go, BHP Group (BHP) (+1.3%), Rio Tinto (RIO) (+0.6%), and Fortescue (FMG) (+1.5%) likely added the most index points, but there were also strong gains across base metals, gold (still), and even lithium and battery metals stocks.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Larvotto Resources (LRV) | $0.265 | +$0.025 | +10.4% | +140.9% | +94.5% |
Macmahon (MAH) | $0.315 | +$0.025 | +8.6% | +21.2% | +110.0% |
Adriatic Metals (ADT) | $3.24 | +$0.22 | +7.3% | +0.9% | -15.0% |
Regis Resources (RRL) | $1.690 | +$0.075 | +4.6% | -11.5% | +10.5% |
Ora Banda Mining (OBM) | $0.505 | +$0.02 | +4.1% | +18.8% | +448.9% |
Chalice Mining (CHN) | $1.060 | +$0.04 | +3.9% | -3.6% | -80.4% |
Sayona Mining (SYA) | $0.027 | +$0.001 | +3.8% | -18.2% | -77.5% |
Southern Cross Gold (SXG) | $2.67 | +$0.09 | +3.5% | +23.0% | +536.0% |
Fenix Resources (FEX) | $0.300 | +$0.01 | +3.4% | -22.1% | 0% |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | $0.790 | +$0.02 | +2.6% | -17.7% | -71.2% |
Champion Iron (CIA) | $5.79 | +$0.14 | +2.5% | -5.2% | +8.6% |
Deterra Royalties (DRR) | $3.77 | +$0.09 | +2.4% | -2.3% | -15.8% |
Firefly Metals (FFM) | $0.895 | +$0.02 | +2.3% | +11.9% | +70.5% |
Syrah Resources (SYR) | $0.225 | +$0.005 | +2.3% | -26.2% | -64.4% |
Core Lithium (CXO) | $0.095 | +$0.002 | +2.2% | -5.0% | -76.8% |
Perseus Mining (PRU) | $2.58 | +$0.05 | +2.0% | -3.0% | +55.9% |
South32 (S32) | $3.01 | +$0.05 | +1.7% | +0.7% | -18.2% |
Fortescue (FMG) | $17.26 | +$0.25 | +1.5% | -19.8% | -14.3% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | $4.27 | +$0.06 | +1.4% | +6.2% | +21.0% |
BHP Group (BHP) | $40.25 | +$0.52 | +1.3% | -3.3% | -6.6% |
Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $75.77 | +$0.87 | +1.2% | +7.6% | 0% |
IGO (IGO) | $5.03 | +$0.05 | +1.0% | -12.2% | -58.7% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | $2.16 | +$0.02 | +0.9% | +21.3% | +242.9% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | $14.56 | +$0.12 | +0.8% | +2.4% | +41.4% |
Sandfire Resources (SFR) | $8.78 | +$0.06 | +0.7% | +5.2% | +46.1% |
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) | $6.34 | +$0.04 | +0.6% | +4.8% | -5.9% |
Rio Tinto (RIO) | $110.47 | +$0.65 | +0.6% | -3.5% | +5.4% |
The best ASX resources stocks today
Really, only one sector did it tough today, the Real Estate (XRE) (-1.6%) sector. It was a mixed bag with most of the damage being done by Dexus (DXS) (-8.9%) which disappointed with its full year results, and Ingenia Communities Group (INA) (+5.7%) which pleased with its results offering.
ChartWatch
NASDAQ Composite Index
The hard work begins now...
The last time we covered the Comp was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 6 August.
In that update, we had just printed what turned out to be the bottom-most candle of the recent correction.
Looking at the chart above, history shows the dynamic demand at the long term uptrend ribbon held firm – fighting off yet another bear market threat.
I called that candle a “line in the demand-supply environment sand”. It still stands as the delineator between bull and bear market. As long as we don’t close below 15708, I propose some version of the bull market remains intact.
Ideally, it’s the up, up, and away kind – and not the rotate miserably in a choppy trading range below the old high of 18671 for six months kind of bull market.
Candles look good – they’re a consistent run of clear demand-side variants since 15708 with only a couple of exceptions. The price action they create, i.e., the steepness of this last move, is also strongly representative of a return to demand-side control.
With 17792 in the bag, the supply zone between 18129-18671 now comes into focus.
Candles are crucial in this zone – black-bodied and or upward pointing shadows equals the manifestation of excess supply – and this would likely at least halt the current run. If they grow in frequency or size in that range it could signal trouble for the bulls.
Alternatively, if they stay white-bodied and or downward pointing shadows, we are setting up for new highs.
I wouldn’t be fussed by a short, sharp pullback here – particularly one punctuated by downward pointing shadows. It would be constructive to firming the evidence of demand-side control and give us valuable information about the supply-side’s remaining capacity to wage war.
In many ways, the easy part of this recovery is likely done. I suggest it’s going to get a little tougher and far more interesting from here!
Russell 2000 Index (RUT)
Until we signals to the contrary - Keep calm and follow the trend
The last time we covered the RUT was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 7 August.
In that update, I noted “The only way to fix a great big dump – is to manufacture a great big pump”. The old V-shaped recovery is the best.
Well, the bull’s prayers have been answered because looking at the Comp chart and here, it’s exactly what we’ve got.
To be fair, the rally here is a little more subdued which indicates the broader US market hasn’t completely come along for the Comp’s mega-cap tech run.
Still, there’s some good signals here in the candles and the steepness of the recent rally that the demand side is back in control and the supply side is…well…where did they go!?
2176 is the next key supply challenge, and 2279-89 from there. 1993 is to the RUT what 15708 is to the Comp. It’s end of the bull market stuff on a close below there.
Overall, the Comp and the RUT both provide encouraging signs for bulls that the correction was an aberration and longer term fallout from contagion and liquidity crunches are minimal for now.
I don’t know the future. Anything can happen. The biggest bear market in history could start with tonight’s candle. If it does, we will see the transition from demand-side to supply-side control play out. It will be clear.
Until then, all I can suggest is: Keep calm and follow the trend!
Economy
Today
CHN 1-year Loan Prime Rate & 5-year Loan Prime Rate no change at 3.35% and 3.85% as forecast
Later this week
Wednesday
10:30 AUS MI Leading Index July (+0% in June)
Thursday
04:00 USA FOMC August Meeting Minutes
09:00 AUS Flash Manufacturing PMI & Flash Services PMI August (47.5 and 50.4 respectively in July)
17:15 EUR Various countries and EU Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
23:45 USA Flash Manufacturing PMI & Flash Services PMI August (49.8 forecast and 54.0 forecast respectively and vs 49.6 and 55.0 respectively in July)
Friday
00:00 USA Existing home sales July (3.92 million forecast vs 3.89 million June)
ALL DAY USA Jackson Hole Symposium
Saturday
00:00 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speech
00:00 USA New home sales July (628,000 forecast vs 617,000 June)
ALL DAY USA Jackson Hole Symposium
Latest News
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
+11.6% Monadelphous Group (MND) - Full Year Statutory Accounts and 2024 Full Year Results Presentation
+10.5% Judo Capital (JDO) - Judo FY24 Annual Report and Judo FY24 Result Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+8.9% Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC) - 2024 Annual Report and RWC FY2024 Results Presentation
+8.9% Nuix (NXL) - Continued positive response to yesterday's FY24 Financial Results Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+8.9% Baby Bunting Group (BBN) - Appendix 4E and 2024 Annual Report and FY24 Investor Presentation
+8.9% Ansell (ANN) - FY24 Annual Report and FY24 Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+8.6% Macmahon (MAH) - Macmahon FY24 Annual Report and Macmahon FY24 Results Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+8.0% Appen (APX) - Continued positive response to 30 July Q2 FY24 Quarterly Activity Report and Appendix 4C (there's also yesterday's Response to ASX Price Query), rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈
+7.3% Adriatic Metals (ADT) - Generally stronger ASX precious metals sector on rising gold and silver prices (silver up 3 sessions in a row now), also suggest some short covering triggered here...
+6.3% Silver Mines (SVL) - Possibly a bit of ditto ADT, but could be just a bounce after the massive sell off after Bowdens Silver Project Appeal Proceedings Outcome
+5.7% Ingenia Communities Group (INA) - Appendix 4E and Financial Statements FY24 and FY24 Results Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+5.2% ARB Corporation (ARB) - Appendix 4E and Annual Report and Full Year Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
Trading lower
-14.5% Yancoal Australia (YAL) - Negative response to yesterday's 1H 2024 Financial Results Presentation, also see the meme at the bottom of this section from @Cyclops_Trader on X/Twitter 👇
-11.2% Mader Group (MAD) - FY24 Annual Report and FY24 Results Presentation
-8.9% Dexus (DXS) - 2024 Annual Report and 2024 Annual Results Presentation
-7.9% Iress (IRE) - Continued negative response to yesterday'sFY24 Half Year Results Presentation, two broker rating downgrades (see Broker Notes section below)
-7.0% Solvar (SVR) - FY24 Results Investor Presentation and FY24 Annual Results
-6.9% Audinate Group (AD8) - Pullback after yesterday's rally after FY24 Investor Presentation, downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS (see Broker Notes section below)
-5.7% Magellan Financial Group (MFG) - No news, ex-dividend $0.357 50% franked
-5.0% Grange Resources (GRR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉
Yancoal investors were left with a bad taste in their mouth after the company failed to declare a dividend
Broker Notes
The A2 Milk Company (A2M)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.20 from $7.05
Upgraded to hold from underperform at CLSA; Price Target: $5.60 from $5.90
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.60 from $5.70
Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $6.25 from $6.05
Audinate Group (AD8)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.60 from $10.50
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.00
Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $12.20 from $10.90
Adacel Technologies (ADA)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.65 from $0.75
Ampol (ALD)
Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $36.00
Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $33.00
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.75 from $36.50
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $35.00
Upgraded to buy from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $35.50
Downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $33.00 from $36.00
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $31.60 from $33.00
Amcor (AMC)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $17.00 from $15.00
ANZ Group (ANZ)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $24.50
Autosports Group (ASG)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.10
Baby Bunting Group (BBN)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.40
Bellevue Gold (BGL)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.85
BHP Group (BHP)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $48.40
Bluescope Steel (BSL)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $23.00 from $23.70
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $28.20
Retained at underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $18.03 from $17.80
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $24.00 from $26.10
Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.50 from $20.00
Upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $24.50 from $23.00
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $23.50 from $25.00
Champion Iron (CIA)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.60
Capricorn Metals (CMM)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.25
Centuria Office Reit (COF)
Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.35 from $1.60
Coronado Global Resources (CRN)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.80
Core Lithium (CXO)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.08
De Grey Mining (DEG)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.35
Domain Australia (DHG)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.75
Deterra Royalties (DRR)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.70
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.00
Dexus (DXS)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.20
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.51
Evolution Mining (EVN)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.05
Fortescue (FMG)
Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $15.50
Gold Road Resources (GOR)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.05
GPT Group (GPT)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.90
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.98 from $4.70
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.68
GWA Group (GWA)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.05 from $3.10
Hub24 (HUB)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $39.40
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $41.00
IGO (IGO)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.75
Iluka Resources (ILU)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $9.00
Ingenia Communities Group (INA)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.30
Iress (IRE)
Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $11.35 from $11.24
Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $9.25 from $9.20
Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $10.00 from $10.20
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.25 from $9.70
Downgraded at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $11.20 from $10.74
Judo Capital (JDO)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.26
Lendlease Group (LLC)
Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $7.30 from $6.92
Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $6.50 from $7.25
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.03 from $8.10
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.35
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $6.25 from $5.79
Arcadium Lithium (LTM)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.35
Liontown Resources (LTR)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.15
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.00
Mineral Resources (MIN)
Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $47.00
Monadelphous Group (MND)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.20
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.15
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $15.00
Mystate (MYS)
Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.31 from $4.20
New Hope Corporation (NHC)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.70
Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.90
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.70 from $4.00
Northern Star Resources (NST)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $15.90
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $14.10
Nufarm (NUF)
Downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.65 from $4.80
Nuix (NXL)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $5.20 from $3.00
OOH!Media (OML)
Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $1.87
Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $1.60 from $1.80
Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.56 from $1.28
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.85 from $1.95
Pilbara Minerals (PLS)
Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.40
Perenti (PRN)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.30
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70
Reece (REH)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $26.80 from $26.90
Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $19.00
Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $23.70 from $23.35
Retained at underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $21.00 from $15.65
Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $22.85 from $19.40
Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $19.00
Retained at reduce at Morgans; Price Target: $21.00 from $22.10
Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $23.50 from $20.80
Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $20.50
Rio Tinto (RIO)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $136.60
Regis Resources (RRL)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.85 from $2.15
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.90
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.70
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.85
Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.20
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.90
South32 (S32)
Initiated at sell at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.25
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.70
Seek (SEK)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $28.00 from $31.00
Sandfire Resources (SFR)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.50
Sims (SGM)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.50
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $11.10
Suncorp Group (SUN)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $17.70 from $17.50
Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $18.35 from $18.00
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00 from $15.80
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $19.95 from $20.20
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $18.92 from $18.47
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $19.20 from $18.20
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $19.00
Southern Cross Gold (SXG)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.26
Vicinity Centres (VCX)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.10
Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)
Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $30.40 from $28.40
Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $28.60 from $26.20
Retained at underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $25.80 from $25.00
Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.00
Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.60
Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $26.11 from $24.15
Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $27.00
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $30.00
Webjet (WEB)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $10.99 from $10.50
Whitehaven Coal (WHC)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.80
Scans
Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.
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