Evening Wrap: ASX 200 lifts as GOLD GOLD GOLD! meltup continues, WTC and PME hammered again

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 13.0 points higher, up 0.16%.

Good as gold 🥇 – that was the major theme of the week! Gold stocks were again on the rise, up another 3% in aggregate as the gold price notched yet another record high.

The big funds look to still be playing defense on the ASX (gold is a defensive asset) as consumer staples stocks like Woolworths (WOW) (+1.2%) and Coles Group (COL) (+1.5%) prospered, and so too did lower PE stocks in the Energy and Resources sectors like Woodside Energy (WDS) (+0.9%) and Rio Tinto (RIO) (1.0%).

The opposite of defense is high-PE and momentum – and those stocks, including many in Information Technology and Healthcare – were belted again today. WiseTech Global (WTC) (-4.3%) and Pro Medicus (PME) (-3.9%) are just two examples of 2024 darlings that have turned into 2025 pariahs.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the NASDAQ Composite and Gold 🥇 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 13.0 points higher at 7,982.0, 0.51% from its session low and just 0.24% from its high. Reflecting the narrow gain in the benchmark today, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a slim 141 to 137.

For the week, the XJO finished a modest 50.8 points higher or +0.64%. It closed 1.04% from its intraweek low and 0.41% from its intraweek high.

Good as gold 🥇. That was the theme of the week, and really, it has been a consistent theme all year. If you’ve been in an investing black hole and you have no idea what I’m talking about, then let’s just say the gold price has been doing pretty well of late, and so too have Aussie gold stocks as a result.

I have full technical analysis on the gold price for you in ChartWatch below, and I am proud to say that if there is an ASX gold stock that has gone up bags since the start of the year – it has featured at least once in my daily ChartWatch ASX Scans uptrends lists. For many of these stocks, however, they’ve featured over and over again.

Trend following doesn’t work all the time, but when it does – and there’s such a reliable trend like there is presently in gold – it can work beautifully.

In short for this part of the Evening Wrap – i.e., the quick summary of what went up and down on the day, let’s conclude by saying the Gold (XGD) sub-index (+3.4%) was the best performing ASX sector for the day. By quite a bit!

S&P/ASX 200 Gold (XGD) sub-index chart (click here for full size image)

But it was light and day between the XGD and the worst performing sector, Information Technology (XIJ) (-2.2%). Ironically, the XIJ was one of the two best performing sectors of 2024 (the other being Financials). Now, in this “post-correction shun anything high-PE-momentum-2024” environment – it can’t take a trick 😭.

S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology (XIJ) chart (click here for full size image)

The chart above shows how the XIJ flattened through Nov-Feb, and then cracked in late-Feb with a long black candle (I call them species ending events!) triggered by a big sell off in sector leader WiseTech Global (ASX: WTC) (-4.3%). Soon after, it slipped below the long term trend ribbon (which had neutralised), and more recently, it has performed the fatal "test-and-fail at the long term trend ribbon" that is so commonly associated with bear markets.

Needless to say, there have been several XIJ constituents appearing in the downtrends lists of ChartWatch ASX Scans. You can’t say I haven’t been banging the warning drums on the XIJ and many other deteriorating trends ⚠️.

In between Gold and Tech, well, it looked, much like yesterday, as Defensive and Low-PE = Good vs High-PE-2024-momentum and Bond Proxies = Bad. In keeping, the defensive Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.91%) followed the XGD as second best performing sector today, with the low-PE Energy (XEJ) (+0.81%) and Resources (XJR) (+0.54%) sectors not too far behind.

Unloved with the XIJ, was bond proxy Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (-1.6%) (still suffering from higher risk-free Australian yields this week), and high-PE Health Care (XHJ) (-0.42%) (2024 momentum darling Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) (-3.9%) is unravelling and earnt a spot in ChartWatch scans downtrends for the first time yesterday).

There’s plenty to be said about trying to stay on the right side of the themes driving fund flows at a macro level on the ASX, and making the necessary adjustments at micro level in your portfolio.

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

A logical follow through to Wednesday’s supply side reversal (click here for full size image)

If I’m doing my job correctly, you should just about be reading candles as easily as you’re reading this sentence.

And, on that basis, last night’s candle on the Comp should be no surprise to you – a logical follow through to Wednesday’s supply side reversal – smack bang in the dynamic supply zone defined by the short and long term trend ribbons.

The upward pointing shadow speaks of an early rally that was met with excess supply from the sell the rally contingent of the demand-supply environment.

It was, however, hardly a massive supply-side showing, and we’re probably now ebbing into an area where demand was reasonably active post-that 17238 low. The general theory that attempts justify the concept of “support” is thus: If there was excess demand at a point in price in the past, there may still be demand lurking in that area in the future.

Maybe, we don’t assume. We see first – then we analyse and conclude.

So, it will be important to see how the price action responds from here – and all the way down to 17238 – that all-critical delineator between bull and bear.

You know the drill…Fingerprints of Supply: Black bodies and or upward pointing shadows vs Fingerprints of Demand: White bodies and or downward pointing shadows.

I haven’t labelled the last peak, set at the high of Tuesday’s candle at 18281, because I want to keep the trend ribbons free of clutter – but that’s now the key point of supply to the upside. A close above there and we’re in good shape to tackle 18605 and potentially even escape from the confines of the trend ribbons🙏.

Alternatively, a close below the low of the 21-Mar emphatic demand candle of 17474 and we’re on our way to 17238 😭.

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Good as gold 🥇 (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered gold was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 24 March.

In that update, we were tracking a minor ebb in the overall undeniable-and-total-demand-side control that the gold chart so clearly demonstrates.

I said something along the lines of “nothing goes up in a straight line”, and that I couldn’t see anything to threaten my total demand-side control view…and to simply wait for the next demand-side candle to restart the uptrend…

Well, the chart above shows the short and long term trends in gold remain impeccable, as does the price action, and do the candles.

I don’t do predictions, so I don’t do… “gold is going to a zillion dollars an ounce and we’ll all be paying for our bread with gold shavings after fiat has been rendered worthless by endless debasement and the crumbling of the global financial system as we know it…”

I’m not one of those guys 🤔.

I don’t subscribe to either plausible or sensational narratives (and I strongly recommend you stop doing so if you happen to do this with gold or any other commodity or thematic).

Honestly, I couldn’t care less how high or not gold goes. Simply that it does…and preferably in a low volatility trend either way!

What more could a trend follower want 🤷!

My job is to ascertain the direction and strength of that trend, the probability or lack thereof it will continue, and to decide how much or not to risk on any trade I may decide to take.

The rest is up to the market…and the market is gonna do what the market is gonna do. So stop fussing over it!

Have a great weekend everyone! 🏖️

(If you want to see what a credible blow off top candle pattern / major supply zone combination looks like, then check out my copper article from today where I ran the latest technicals on Dr Copper 🧐.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 20:30 USA Core PCE Price Index February (+0.3% m/m and 2.7% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m and 2.6% p.a. in January)

• 20:30 USA Personal Income February (+0.4% m/m forecast vs +0.9% m/m in January)

• 20:30 USA Personal Spending February (+0.6% m/m forecast vs -0.2% m/m in January)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +25.0% Strickland Metals (STK) - Fifth Drill Rig Commences Exploration at Rogozna and Shanac Resource Increases to 5.3Moz AuEq, Rogozna now 7.4Moz, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +19.7% Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) - Response to ASX Price Query, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.9% Turaco Gold (TCG) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.0% Silver Mines (SVL) - No news since 27-Mar Diamond Drilling at the Bowdens Silver Project, general strength across the broader Silver sector today.

• +9.4% Andean Silver (ASL) - No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.2% Gentrack Group (GTK) - No news 🤔.

• +8.8% Artrya (AYA) - Artrya Secures FDA Clearance for Salix Coronary Anatomy, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +7.1% Meeka Metals (MEK) - No news since 27-Mar 36m @ 2.82g/t Au - High-Grade Gold at Turnberry Central, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.1% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.9% Ramelius Resources (RMS) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +6.8% Predictive Discovery (PDI) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.4% Orthocell (OCC) - No news since 26-Mar First Sales of Striate in Germany, Austria & Swiss Region, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +6.3% Spartan Resources (SPR) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.0% Titan Minerals (TTM) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +4.6% Regis Resources (RRL) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.4% West African Resources (WAF) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.3% De Grey Mining (DEG) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.2% St Barbara (SBM) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +4.1% Polymetals Resources (POL) - No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list yesterday 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -9.0% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news 🤔 (trend appears to be rolling over again ⚠️!).

• -8.6% Novonix (NVX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.4% Orora (ORA) - Change in substantial holding from PPT, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.1% Light & Wonder (LNW) - No news, tracked fall in its US listing overnight.

• -6.0% Mesoblast (MSB) - No news since 27-Mar Ryoncil Is Now Available For Purchase In The United States, tracked fall in its US listing overnight.

• -5.3% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) - No news since 27-Mar when it was downgraded to hold from buy at Canaccord Genuity and price target cut to $0.200 from $0.300.

• -5.2% Johns Lyng Group (JLG) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.9% DigiCo REIT (DGT) - No news, general weakness across the broader Real Estate sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.4% Brainchip (BRN) - No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.3% Wisetech Global (WTC) - No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.1% Paladin Energy (PDN) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder (from Bank of America) and Change in substantial holding (possibly increasing short sell interest), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.9% Pro Medicus (PME) - No news, general weakness across the broader HealthCare sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list yesterday 🔎📉

• -3.7% Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) - No news, general weakness across the broader Copper sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.5% Goodman Group (GMG) - No news, general weakness across the broader Real Estate sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.20

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $75.00 from $80.00

• AUB Group (AUB)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $38.70 from $38.00

• Boss Energy (BOE)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.65 from $4.80

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.30

• Catalyst Metals (CYL)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $5.69 from $4.56

• Domain Australia (DHG)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.43

• EBR Systems (EBR)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.86 from $1.760

• Fleetpartners Group (FPR)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.90

• Healius (HLS)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.050

• Incitec Pivot (IPL)

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.90

• James Hardie Industries (JHX)

  • Upgraded to buy from underperform at Bank of America; Price Target: $43.40 from $42.00

• KMD Brands (KMD)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.350 from $0.500

• Medibank Private (MPL)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.25

• Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $30.80

• NIB (NHF)

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.55

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $13.35 from $14.80

  • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.25 from $9.10

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.00

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.00 from $9.60

• Pro Medicus (PME)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $280.00 from $330.00

• QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.05 from $23.80

• Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.00

• SPC Global Holdings (SPG)

  • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.900

• Southern Cross Gold (SX2)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $6.03 from $3.69

• The Reject Shop (TRS)

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $6.68 from $5.10

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.80

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $6.68 from $3.50

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.68 from $5.00

• Tuas (TUA)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.00 from $6.70

• Wesfarmers (WES)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $61.00

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $70.10 from $73.10

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $80.40

  • Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $75.00

  • Retained at underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $66.00

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $75.00 from $811.00

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $66.70

  • Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $69.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $78.00

Scans