Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, S&P 500 falls on Trump auto tariffs, gold hits another record high

ASX 200 futures are down 8pts (-0.10%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• US stocks were lower after Trump announced additional 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the US (also flagging the tariffs as permanent)

• Gold cracked another fresh all-time high of US$3,059 while copper prices pulled back sharply from Wednesday's record close of almost US$5.4/lb

• A relatively quiet start for the local sharemarket, a few interesting insider trades took place on Thursday morning/arvo

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower in relatively choppy trade (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US indices failed to hold on to positive gains, closing broadly lower and near worst levels

• A bit of a risk-off move as the market continued to digest the latest tariff headlines including a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the US 

• Volatility for options tied to tariff-sensitive currencies have been easing over the past two weeks (BBG)

• Hedge funds snap up cyclical stocks as tariff fears weigh (Bloomberg)

• Copper spikes to record high as traders scramble to get shipments to US before potential tariffs in weeks (BBG)

STOCKS

• Ferrari plans to hike US prices up to 10% to counteract tariffs (BBG)

• Tesla seen as least impacted by latest auto tariffs due to large domestic production (YH)

• CoreWeave slashes IPO value again to US$1.5bn from initial target of US$4bn, brings in Nvidia as anchor investor (FT)

• Microsoft cancels more new data center projects in the US and Europe due to oversupply of computer clusters for AI (BBG)

• H&M profit slumps due to strong kroner and discounts to clear excess inventory (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• St. Louis Fed President Musalem says effects of tariffs could keep rates on hold for longer (RT)

• ECB's Wunsch suggests steady rates amid US trade policy (BBG)

• Norway delays first rate cut of cycle but maintains easing bias (BBG)

TRADE & GEOPOLITICS

• Trump announces 25% tariffs on autos not produced in US (BBG)

• Auto tariffs could push up new car prices by 5-10k while used car market could see 9-12% inflation in near-term (RT)

• Slovakia to be most vulnerable in the EU to tariffs due to heavily dependent auto industry (BBG)

• Trump says reciprocal tariffs will apply to all nations, but will be very lenient (BBG)

• China's Xi said to be meeting with chief executives of BMW, Mercedes, Qualcomm and other key foreign business leaders (RT)

• Canada PM says they will respond soon to Trump's auto tariffs (AX)

• Japan PM Ishiba says will consider appropriate response to Trump's auto tariffs (BBG)

ECONOMY

• China industrial profits fell 0.3% in the first two months of 2025 vs. Bloomberg estimates of a 9% increase, decline suggests the economy remains fragile and hurt by rising tariffs and deflationary risks (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Bellevue Gold may look to raise equity along with an expected production guidance downgrade (The Aus)

• GPT Group Chair Vickki McFadden purchases 25,000 shares, beneficially owns ~138,000 after the translation (GPT)

• Southern Cross Media Chairman Heith Mackay-Cruise purchases 74,000 shares, beneficially owns ~194,000 after the transaction (SXL)

• Southern Cross Media CEO John Jelly purchases 76,900 shares, beneficially owns 338k shares after the transaction (SXL)

• The Star’s Gold Coast casino licence deferred until 30-Sep (SGR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold soared to a fresh record high of US$3,059 overnight. The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rallied 2.44% to surpass its August 2020 peak, now trading at the highest level since January 2013. This should set up local names for a strong session

• Markets continue to chop. I like to use the term 'no man's land' – markets have bounced off lows but still in a hole after the ~10% drawdown. Price action has remained choppy at best and more data is needed to confirm the next directional move.

• Data centres stocks have been obliterated. On Thursday, NextDC tumbled 6.5% to close at its lowest level since November 2023 and now down 20% year-to-date. The latest downward drive has been the Microsoft pulling back from data centre leases and Alibaba's comments about a bubble in the data centre space.

BROKER MOVES

• Paladin Energy upgraded to Outperform from Neutral but target cut to $8.25 from $9.10 (MQG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 28 Mar: 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.05, 360 Capital REIT (TOT) – $0.007, Arena REIT (ARF) – $0.046, Bravura Solutions (BVS) – $0.105, Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) – $0.041, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.025, Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW) – $0.063, Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE) – $0.038, Comms Group (CCG) – $0.001, Cromwell Property Group (CMW) – $0.007, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC) – $0.051, Dexus Industria REIT (DXI) – $0.041, Elanor Commercial Property Fund (ECF) – $0.019, Garda Property Group (GDF) – $0.018, Gryphon Capital Income Trust (GCI) – $0.014, Homeco Daily Needs REIT (HDN) – $0.021, KKR Credit Income Fund (KKC) – $0.017, Perpetual Credit Income Trust (PCI) – $0.007, Ram Essential Services Property Fund (REP) – $0.013, Rural Funds Group (RFF) – $0.029, Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.041

• Mon 31 Mar: Cedar Woods Properties (CWP) – $0.10, MA Credit Income Trust (MA1) – $0.015, Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.013, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.013, Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.008, Ramsay Health Care (RHCPA) – $3.316, Staude Capital Global Value Fund (GVF) – $0.033.

• Tue 1 Apr: Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – $0.012

• Wed 2 Apr: ARB Corporation (ARB) – $0.34, Harvey Norman (HVN) – $0.12.

• Thu 3 Apr: Lindsay Australia (LAU) – $0.023, Ridley Corporation (RIC) – $0.048

• Fri 4 Apr: FFI Holdings (FFI) – $0.10

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Apiam Animal Health (AHX), ARN Media (A1N), Bisalloy Steel Group (BIS), Breville Group (BRG), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), Credit Corp Group (CCP), Engenco (EGN), Globe International (GLB), Iluka Resources (ILU), LaserBond (LBL), McMillan Shakespeare (MMS), Monadelphous Group (MND), Nido Education (NDO), Origin Energy (ORG), Qualitas (QAL), Teaminvest Private Group (TIP), Telstra Group (TLS), and Universal Store (UNI)

• Listing: None

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 6:00 pm: Germany Consumer Confidence (APR)

• 6:00 pm: UK Retail Sales (FEB)

• 6:45 pm: France Inflation Rate (MAR)

• 11:30 pm: US Core PCE Price Index (FEB)