Evening Wrap: ASX 200 higher, uranium stocks break out + S&P 500 faces inflation test

The local sharemarket inches higher despite a strong lead from Wall Street, Australia's consumer confidence remains near recession lows while business confidence falters, JPMorgan expects the S&P 500 to trade flat to up to 0.5% after tonight's inflation print, an ASX-listed small cap receives a takeover bid at a massive 165.3% premium and uranium stocks are breaking out ... selectively.

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

Choppy but higher session (Source: Market Index)

Markets

The S&P 500 rallied to 14-month highs overnight which means the ASX 200 must be in for some big gains after the long weekend. Syke.

The heavyweight resource sector is struggling for upside amid China's disappointing economic recovery. Last week, inflation in China remained at low levels and its producer price index fell 4.6% month-on-month, marking the steepest decline in seven years. It'll be difficult for our market to rally without the participation of the resource sector.

On the flip side, the S&P/ASX 200 Info Tech Index has staged a V-shaped bounce after falling 3.8% last Thursday. The Index is back at levels not seen since April 2022. We're seeing gains across the board, including Wisetech (+5.2%), Xero (+4.2%) and NextDC (+3.5%).

Economy

Australia’s consumer confidence rose 0.2% to 79.2 in June, according to Westpac Economics.

• The Index has now been near recession lows for the past 12 months

• Inflation remains the dominant drag on confidence (62% of consumers), followed by budget and taxation (43%), economic conditions (40%) and employment (32%)

• Major purchases deteriorated further in June, back down near extreme lows seen in February and March. The sub-index fell 6.5% to 76.4

• Consumer risk aversion hit all-time highs in June, with the report noting “safe-havens and paying down debt are very heavily favoured.”

• Paying down debt is at its highest since the option was included in 1997, while riskier options like real estate reflected just 5% of respondents, near all-time lows 

Australia’s business confidence eased to -4 points in May from 0 in the previous month, according to NAB Economics.

• “The fall in conditions now appears to be accelerating, and while they remain a touch above their long-run average they are well below the levels we saw in early 2023.” 

• “Leading indicators weakened, with forward orders down 6 pts to -5 index points suggesting that conditions will ease further in coming months and capacity utilisation remaining high but edging lower.”

• “Historically there have been very few periods of negative orders outside of downturns in the economy.”

• “Both input and output price growth ticked up in the month and remain high. Labour costs growth rose to 2.2% in quarterly equivalent terms, while input prices rose to 2.5%.”

Latest news

Market Insights

It's CPI time: JPMorgan's playbook

US inflation data will be released at 10:30 pm AEST tonight. Here's what the market is expecting for the May print:

• Headline inflation up 0.2% MoM from 0.4% in the previous month

• Headline inflation to ease to 4.1% YoY from 4.9%

• Core inflation up 0.4% MoM unch

• Core inflation to fall to 5.3% YoY from 5.5%

As for how the S&P 500 will react, here's what JPMorgan expect:

Cybersecurity M&A

I'm not too familiar with the ASX-listed cybersecurity space but I did come across an interesting takeover today for Tesserent (ASX: TNT). It entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Thales Australia at a massive 165.3% premium to its last closing price of 4.9 cents per share.

Thematically, cybersecurity is a rather appealing space given all the breaches we've seen across major organisations like Optus, Medicare, IPH, Latitude Financial and more. The Australia Government also announced almost $200 million of investments into the cyber space as part of its 2023-24 fiscal year budget.

As for ASX-listed cybersecurity stocks, they've been great at selling the narrative and then creating bagholders. The takeover for Tesserent brings the stock just 7% shy of breakeven year-to-date.

Tesserent 12-month price chart (Source: Market Index)

ArchTIS (ASX: AR9) is another name that's down 20% year-to-date and 35% in the last twelve months. Whereas Dropsuite (ASX: DSE) is arguably the odd one out, up 64% this year.

Anyway, does this takeover shake up the sector a little bit? Will we see a bit of a re-rate follow through for names like ArchTIS?

Uranium: It's breaking out ... selectively

I've been following uranium for quite some time now. And for the most part, it's been as sector that starts to move out and then whipsaws back into its longstanding trading range.

But now, uranium spot prices are starting to break out and trading at the highest level since May 2022. Is this the beginning of something?

Uranium spot price (Source: TradingEconomics)

A lot of names have also remained rangebound, even after the recent rally.

There's only one name that's breaking out in a meaningful manner. And that's Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) - It's based in Australia (whereas several ASX-listed names are based in Namibia) and expects to hit production status in the December quarter.

Boss Energy 12-month price chart (Source: Market Index)

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +144.9% Tesserent (TNT) – Thales to acquire at 13 cps

• +12.0% Sezzle (SZL) – Continuation rally, up 14.4% in previous three

• +6.6% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) – Government contract

• Uranium sector move: Alligator Energy (+19.4%), Bannerman (+17.7%), Deep Yellow (+10.2%), Paladin Energy (+9.4%), Lotus Resources (+8.1%), 92Energy (+6.0%)

• Tech sector move: Wisetech (+5.0%), Xero (+4.3%), NextDC (+3.5%)

Trading lower

• -5.9% Domino’s Pizza (DMP) – Exits Danish markets and guidance

• -7.5% Terracom (TER) – Coal sales update

• -2.9% Bapcor (BAP) – Downgraded by Citi

• Nickel sector move: Ecograf (-8.3%), Widgie Nickel (-8.2%), Nickel Mines (-7.7%), Pacific Nickel Mines (-5.1%), Centaurus Metals (-2.5%)

• Coal sector move: Yancoal (-4.5%), Stanmore (-2.2%) Whitehaven (-1.9%)

• Energy sector move: Woodside (-1.6%), Beach Energy (-1.9%)

Broker notes

Broker notes are taking a day off today. 

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