Evening Wrap: ASX 200 gripped by panic as STO, WDS dumped, supermarkets only place to hide

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 191.9 points lower, down 2.44%.

No doubt by now, you've all heard the headlines: Aussie stocks got absolutely pasted today.

As in, the Energy sector fell 8% (Santos (STO) (-9.4%) and Woodside Energy (WDS) (-9.1%) among the many big casualties).

But it wasn't all red ink. Consider supermarkets – we all still have to go to those – tariffs bedamned, right!? So we saw stocks like Coles Group (COL) (+4.1%) and Woolworths Group (WOW) (+3.4%) actually rise today.

With today's near-200 point fall, the S&P/ASX 200 is back in "correction" territory. I've always found that word "correction" interesting because it implies were were "incorrect" before...and it's fair today say tonight's wrap is less about the headlines and more about navel gazing!

But, I do have detailed technical analysis on the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap 👇.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 191.9 points lower at 7,667.8, 2.5% from its session high and just 0.05% from its low 😱. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a dismal 42 to 241.

For the week, the XJO finished down 314.2 points or 3.94% lower, 4.1% from its intraweek high and just 0.05% from its intraweek low 💥.

Liberation Day trade measures: Chump card or Trump card?

Markets appear to be voting the former. If it is to be the latter, and hey – who’s to say 150 years of economic theory is wrong? – markets just don’t want to know about it right now.

So, we got what we got today – markets doing what they are designed to do best – price risk.

A low-risk environment facilitates cash moving out of safer assets (like cash itself, but also bonds) and into riskier assets like stocks (and crypto, or whatever is floating the boats of investors at the time) where it can be rewarded with higher returns.

Many assume stocks are safe. Or at least the blue chip stocks in their portfolio are safe. Fortunately, every now and then, events like this pop up to remind these confused individuals that stocks are indeed risky.

Which brings us to now, a high-risk environment. This is when risk assets must be sold to realise the cash which is then to be parked back in cash, bonds, or under the mattress. There it will earn a lower or no return – but at least it will still all be there when you next go to check on it.

And that’s whole point of pulling your cash out of the market and sticking it somewhere it’s value will not change – sure won’t go up a zillion percent like stocks can from here – but at least it won’t go down 📉.

This stuff isn’t new, it’s been happening since a single tulip could have bought you a nice 2-bedroom apartment on the Herengracht Canal – and it will continue to happen long after President Trump has-or-has-not Made America Great Again.

(That’s tonight’s wrap, and oh, a bunch of stuff got belted as well!)

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

What goes up...sometimes comes down 🎈💥 (click here for full size image)

There was a bit of a sense of inevitability about last night’s candle. I want to say that all-important 26-March supply-side candle – rejecting the dynamic short and long term supply at the trend ribbons – sealed the deal. It was just a matter of time from there.

But, as is usually the case in markets, there’s always a curve ball or two thrown in. For me, it was those last 3 white candles prior to last night's – what were the Yanks thinking 🤔?

What…that old El Presidente was going to deliver the most ground breaking and sound economic policy?

Anyways, I don’t want to get too political here because someone will take it far more seriously than they should 😁!

Let’s just talk about the trends, price action, and candles – like we have been before, during, and will do long after this mess is over! ✅✅✅

And, looking at the chart above, they all remain indicative of supply side control:

• The price is below the short term trend ribbon, the short term trend ribbon is down and the short term trend ribbon has been acting as a zone of dynamic supply (has been since 28-Feb)

• The price action is falling peaks and falling troughs (i.e., supply reinforcement and demand removal) (has been since 27-Feb)

• The candles are predominantly supply-side in nature (i.e., black-bodied and or upward pointing shadows) (has been since really the outside candle on 3-Mar).

• The price is below the long term trend ribbon, the long term trend ribbon has neutralised, and the long term trend trend ribbon is acting as a zone of dynamic supply (has been since 26-Mar)

The last one is the kicker – because that’s my signal to call that the long term trend has transitioned to down. The taking out of the first trough set below the long term trend ribbon (17238) is the final “seal the deal” signal for the start of a new bear phase by my reckoning.

Q. How long will the bear phase last?

A. I don’t know, go ask a prognosticating technical analyst (there are loads on TikTok if you’re unsure to look, but from what I’ve seen most were still 10-15 years away from being born when I bought my first stock!).

It will end when it ends. Watch for all the opposite of the stuff listed above. It really is that simple. I won’t labour the point by writing it all out (because let’s face it – it's Friday afternoon and it’s kinda been a long week 🍻!)

Watch that big green zone I’ve drawn on the chart. Old demand often turns out to be future demand – but let’s just wait and see what the candles look like when we get there.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

That's a big ⬛🕯️! (click here for full size image)

Largely ditto here, but perhaps our big green potential demand zone is a little closer.

Naturally, there will be those who read this and think, “OK smarty pants…so what should I do now…I can see it’s a bit stuffed…I probably should have acted on some of your rantings a little earlier…But what do I do now?”.

As noted above, I can’t tell the future. This thing is going to go where this thing is going to go. Monday could be the low and we’ll all be laughing about that time we were all worried about Trump’s tariffs but then he Made America Great Again and it was all fine.

I just know for me, as I said a few weeks ago, I want to operate at maximum conservatism levels. Because that’s what the market is doing.

There will be others that will tell you to be fearful when everyone is greedy and greedy when everyone is fearful. That’s not my gig – and you’re welcome to try that out.

In my experience it usually only works right at the top and right at the bottom, though. I try to focus on the bits in between – the trends – and the trends are clear.

And, to be fair, I’ve been clear about my opinions on them. The rest is up to you.

Either way, have a fantastic weekend everyone. It was a pleasure to track – candle-by-candle – this reversal with you. I hoped I helped you figure out a few things about markets on the way – but yours and mine work is not done!

See you Monday! 🫡

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 20:30 USA Non-Farm Payrolls Data March

  • Employment Change: +139,000 forecast vs +151,000 in February

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% forecast, unchanged from February

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.1%, unchanged from February

• 23:25 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speech

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +7.5% Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq-100 Hedge Fund ETF (SNAS) - No news (it's a short NASDAQ ETF!)

• +6.9% BetaShares US EQY Strong Bear - CH ETF (BBUS) - No news (it's a short US stocks ETF!)

• +5.7% BetaShares Australian Strong Bear ETF (BBOZ) - No news (it's a short ASX ETF!), rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.2% Capricorn Metals (CMM) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, even though gold was down last night the gold sector was about the only place to hide today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.1% Coles Group (COL) - No news, general strength across the broader Consumer Staples sector today, more specifically here, though, due to the defensive nature of supermarkets, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈 (nice to see ChartWatch still snagging a couple of wins today!)

• +3.4% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, interestingly uranium was also strong today - probably overdue for a bounce, but the uranium futures price also was slightly higher overnight.

• +3.4% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) - No news, probably LYC's US project helped it here.

• +3.4% Woolworths Group (WOW) - No news, general strength across the broader Consumer Staples sector today, ditto "super" supermarkets today!

• +3.1% Endeavour Group (EDV) - F25 Third Quarter Trading Update Reporting Date, general strength across the broader Consumer Staples sector today, probably also some defensive shine experienced here too…and I suspect many of us will need a drink this evening when perusing our portfolios 🍷!

• +3.0% Ansell (ANN) - US Tariffs Update (plus it got smashed yesterday, so perhaps a reprieve today).

• +2.7% Boss Energy (BOE) - No news, ditto general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

Trading lower

• -16.7% Amotiv (AOV) - Trading Update and Outlook, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉 (Hey no point doing any more than the top 10 here tonight - and you're going to see a lot of "I told you so vis-a-vis prior ChartWatch downtrend heads up!")

• -13.8% Zip Co. (ZIP) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -12.2% Karoon Energy (KAR) - Becoming a substantial holder (Citi, looks like some short selling arrangements) , general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -12.0% Breville Group (BRG) - No news since 03-Apr New US Tariffs announced today, seen as a big tariff loser, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -11.7% Corporate Travel Management (CTD) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -11.4% Credit Corp Group (CCP) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -11.3% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -11.0% HMC Capital (HMC) - No news since 03-Apr Investor Day 2025 Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -10.8% Beach Energy (BPT) - No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -10.4% DigiCo REIT (DGT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -9.9% Mineral Resources (MIN) - Change in substantial holding (UBS decrease), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• Aml3d (AL3)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.400

• ALS (ALQ)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.25

• Atlas Arteria (ALX)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.70

• Amcor (AMC)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.20

• AMP (AMP)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.550 from $1.700

• Ansell (ANN)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $37.20

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $36.20

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $29.30

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $31.00 from $34.00

• Amotiv (AOV)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.94

• Eagers Automotive (APE)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.39

• ARB Corporation (ARB)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $45.40

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $45.00

• Autosports Group (ASG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.00

• Aurizon (AZJ)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.41

• Bapcor (BAP)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.85

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.75

• Breville Group (BRG)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $38.20

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.40 from $37.40

• Challenger (CGF)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.00

• Champion Iron (CIA)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.20 from $7.10

• Computershare (CPU)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $42.00

• EQT (EQT)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $35.00 from $36.00

• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH)

  • Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: NZ$33.20 from NZ$30.10

• Fleetpartners Group (FPR)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.65

• Genusplus Group (GNP)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.20

• Gentrack Group (GTK)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $11.80

• Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.15

• Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $14.60

• Light & Wonder (LNW)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $200.00

• Lovisa (LOV)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.86

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.80

• McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.24

• Medibank Private (MPL)

  • Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.80

• NIB (NHF)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.65

• Nextdc (NXT)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $18.70

• Orora (ORA)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.42

• Orica (ORI)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.91

• QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $23.00 from $23.20

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $24.50 from $23.00

• Region Group (RGN)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.40

• Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

  • Initiated at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $38.70

• Ridley Corporation (RIC)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.90

• Ramelius Resources (RMS)

  • Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $3.60

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.90

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.50

• Sandfire Resources (SFR)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $10.50

• Sheffield Resources (SFX)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.190 from $0.160

• Sims (SGM)

  • Downgraded to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $12.00 from $14.80

• Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.06

• Transurban Group (TCL)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $13.80

• Tasmea (TEA)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $3.80 from $3.65

• The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.60

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $15.00

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $11.70 from $13.40

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.90

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $31.00

• Block (XYZ)

  • Upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $67.00 from $65.00

Scans