Evening Wrap: ASX 200 halves loss, but broker downgrades stoke mining stocks wipeout, MIN, PLS, LTR, WHC hit

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 74.8 points lower, down 0.94%.

Stocks like Cettire (CTT) (-14.5%), Ansell (ANN) (-14.3%), and Breville Group (BRG) (-4.97%) are assumed to be big Trump tariff losers, while James Hardie Industries (JHX) (+2.75%), with its substantial operations and production base inside the US, is assumed to be a winner.

There were also some big rating downgrades in the mix as several brokers weighed the new trade world order and updated their commodities price forecasts, and therefore their valuations for Aussie mining companies. Big losses in the likes of LTR, MIN, PLS, and WHC ensued.

Finally, I have detailed technical analysis on the NASDAQ Composite, the S&P/ASX 200 and US Treasury Bond Yields in today's ChartWatch.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 74.8 points lower at 7,859.7, slightly better than mid-range – 1.18% from its session low and 0.95% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by 77 to 188 showing there was still be very bearish undertone to today’s trade.

Similar themes to yesterday amidst the carnage, which to be fair makes since given the current circumstances: Plenty of defence (and plenty of selling pretty much everything else!).

All in all, though, I suggest that today's sub-1% fall and mid-range close was better than most of you probably expected all things considered (i.e., Liberation Day 🗽!)

Of course, there were stocks absolutely belted – as funds attempted to figure out what’s probably going to get belted tonight in the US. FYI, US stock futures are sharply lower in the wake of this morning’s trade policy announcement by President Trump – I have more on this and the technicals in ChartWatch below .

Stocks like Cettire (CTT) (-14.5%), Ansell (ANN) (-14.3%), and Breville Group (BRG) (-4.97%) are assumed to be big Trump tariff losers, while James Hardie Industries (JHX) (+2.75%), with its substantial operations and production base inside the US, is assumed to be a winner.

There were also some big rating downgrades in the mix as several brokers weighed the new trade world order and updated their commodities price forecasts, and therefore their valuations for Aussie mining companies. So, I note here sharp falls in long term ChartWatch ASX Scans Feature Downtrend stalwarts Liontown Resources (LTR) (-12.5%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (-9.5%), Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (-7.6%), and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-6.8%).

Sector-wise, in keeping with the "defence" theme, Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+1.3%) and the Gold (XGD) sub-index (+1.2%), actually rallied on the day. Hardest hit, high-PE Information Technology (XIJ) (-2.9%), and economic growth dependent Energy (XEJ) (-2.7%) and Resources (XJR) (-2.4%) were harshly dealt with.

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

An interesting chart (click here for full size image)

Obviously this one closed before the President Trump’s Liberation Day speech, and therefore is yet to respond / factor this news and its ramifications into prices.

NASDAQ futures are presently down around 715 points or 3.6%. The Comp closed Wednesday’s (to be fair extraordinary showing of confidence and faith in the US capitalist apparatus) at 17601.

So in theory, it could open around 16900-ish which would put it smack-bang at the last point of demand (16854).

But it will be irrelevant where the Comp starts trading. Absolutely meaningless. It will only matter where it closes.

Close at the lows of the session, and it means the supply-side dominated proceedings and was motivated into the close. Just as much, it would mean the demand-side was powerless or unwilling to stop them.

Either way, and combined, it would suggest a likely continuation of the prevailing short term downtrend – and more importantly – the confirmation of the new long term downtrend.

Alternatively, should we see another demand-side candle of the likes of the last 3, so we’re talking about four in a row and the last post the big news – then it would be a resounding show of force by the demand-side. I suspect correction is over sort of stuff.

So, let’s just say one cannot understate the importance of tonight’s proceedings in the Comp. The fate of the bull market likely hangs on it! 💥

US 10 Year T-Bond Yield (click here for full size image)

US 10's did respond to the news, declining all session. It's super interesting how stocks and bonds both rallied last night – risk on and risk off at the same time. Super unusual. It shows cash coming off the sidelines and committing (albeit with far less risk in theory in bonds than stocks).

Given the plunge in US stock futures since Liberation began, it looks like bond traders are smarter than stock traders – at least for now.

(No doubt bond traders who just read that statement said to themselves…Duh, obviously! 😁)

Today's candle (the last on the chart) is live so we should discount it, but it shows the bond market is again forecasting a significant increase in risk aversion. Partly that, and partly also that the US economy is going to be so rekt (do you like my Gen Alpha lingo...or is it Gen Z...I can't keep up!) the Fed is going to have to slash rates to bail it out.

So, who do you trust? Stocks or bonds? I think you can guess my opinion (the bond market is always right!)

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

An interesting chart (click here for full size image)

A super impressive effort from the demand-side today. They bought the dip, trade war uncertainty and all. That long downward pointing shadow meant we held two important points of demand in 7733 and 7808.

There's still plenty of cash out there looking to buy under the right price and liquidity circumstances. That should be encouraging if you're the kind of person that's willing the market back up.

And...well...that's probably all that's worth noting here for now. Let's see how the chips fall tonight and pick up this discussion tomorrow after we've seen how the world has responded to the Liberation of the US economy!

Economy

Today

• CHN Caixin Services PMI March

  • 51.9 vs 51.5 forecast and 51.4 in February

  • Stronger than expected growth, confirming similarly strong official data earlier in the week

Later this week

Friday

• All Day Chinese Bank Holiday

• 20:30 USA Non-Farm Payrolls Data March

  • Employment Change: +139,000 forecast vs +151,000 in February

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% forecast, unchanged from February

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.1%, unchanged from February

• 23:25 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speech

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +38.1% Galan Lithium (GLN) - Secondary Trading Notice.

• +14.3% Benz Mining Corp. (BNZ) - Benz Delivers a New High Grade Gold Discovery at Glenburgh.

• +9.7% AMA Group (AMA) - Change of Director's Interest Notice (on market purchase of 790,000 shares worth $50,000) and continued positive response to 02-Apr Departure of CEO and Appointment of Managing Director, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.7% Meeka Metals (MEK) - Change of Director Interest Notice - P Chapman (exercise of options to purchase 500,000 shares, premium paid $50,000), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.3% Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq-100 Hedge Fund ETF (SNAS) - No news, it's a short NASDAQ ETF.

• +5.2% Ramelius Resources (RMS) - March 2025 Quarter Update Record Underlying Free Cash Flow.

• +4.6% BetaShares US EQY Strong Bear ETF (BBUS) - No news, it's a short US equities ETF.

• +4.4% Spartan Resources (SPR) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder (possible reduction in short interest), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -14.5% Cettire (CTT) - US Tariff Changes on Goods from the EU, viewed as a Trump tariff loser, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -14.3% Ansell (ANN) - No news, viewed as a Trump tariff loser.

• -12.5% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today, downgraded to lighten from hold at Ord Minnett and price target cut to $0.500 from $0.670, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -9.5% Mineral Resources (MIN) - No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today, downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan and price target cut to $27.00 from $35.00 (and two other price target cuts – see Broker Moves below for details) fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -9.4% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.8% EBR Systems (EBR) - No news 🤔.

• -8.6% Netwealth Group (NWL) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.6% Whitehaven Coal (WHC) - No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today, downgraded to underperform from outperform at CLSA and price target cut to $4.60 from $7.20, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.2% Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) - No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.9% Iperionx (IPX) - No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.8% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today, downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan and price target to $1.600 from $2.50 (and another price target cut – see Broker Moves for details), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.6% Zip Co. (ZIP) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• 29METALS (29M)

  • Retained to hold from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.300 from $0.320

• The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.20

• Astral Resources (AAR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.410

• Acrow (ACF)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.330 from $1.290

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $75.00

• AMP (AMP)

  • Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $1.300 from $1.350

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $30.50

• ARB Corporation (ARB)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $39.54

• Bellevue Gold (BGL)

  • Retained to hold from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.350 from

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $42.00

  • Retained to accumulate from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $42.00 from $43.00

• Bluescope Steel (BSL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $26.50 from $28.50

  • Upgraded to overweight from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $24.00 from $23.20

  • Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $26.00 from $25.00

• Brambles (BXB)

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $19.80

• Champion Iron (CIA)

  • Upgraded to buy from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $7.02 from $7.34

• Collins Foods (CKF)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.38

• Capricorn Metals (CMM)

  • Retained to accumulate from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.40 from $9.30

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $19.50

• Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

  • Retained to buy from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.00 from $12.50

• Cettire (CTT)

  • Retained at underperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.900

• Delta Lithium (DLI)

  • Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.170 from $0.300

• Deterra Royalties (DRR)

  • Retained to buy from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.30 from

• Endeavour Group (EDV)

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $4.30

• Elders (ELD)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.75

• Emerald Resources (EMR)

  • Upgraded to lighten from sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.60 from

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.00

  • Retained to buy from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $21.00 from

• Findi (FND)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $8.35 from $7.95

• Gorilla Gold Mines (GG8)

  • Initiated at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $0.740

• Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

  • Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.200 from $0.260

• Goodman Group (GMG)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $37.50

• Hub24 (HUB)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $78.00 from $93.00

  • Retained to neutral from at UBS; Price Target: $76.00 from $86.00

• Harvey Norman (HVN)

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.40

• Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

  • Retained to neutral from at UBS; Price Target: $8.50 from $8.60

• IGO (IGO)

  • Retained to buy from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.00 from $6.75

• Ikegps Group (IKE)

  • Initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.100

• JB HI-FI (JBH)

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $95.80

• James Hardie Industries (JHX)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $55.00

• Kelsian Group (KLS)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.80

• Light & Wonder (LNW)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $198.00

• Lotus Resources (LOT)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.350

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Downgraded to lighten from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.500 from $0.670

• Metals Acquisition (MAC)

  • Retained to buy from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $28.00 from

• Medadvisor (MDR)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.090 from $0.210

• Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Bank of America; Price Target: $9.20

  • Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $8.20 from $8.85

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $27.00 from $35.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.00 from $39.00

  • Retained to buy from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $32.00 from $35.00

• Medallion Metals (MM8)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.550

• Metro Mining (MMI)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.170

• Medibank Private (MPL)

  • Retained to buy from at UBS; Price Target: $5.10 from $4.90

• Newmont Corporation (NEM)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $95.00 from $73.00

  • Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $87.50 from $74.00

  • Retained to buy from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $95.00 from $92.50

• NIB (NHF)

  • Retained to neutral from at UBS; Price Target: $7.10 from $6.75

• Nickel Industries (NIC)

  • Retained to buy from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.600 from

• Netwealth Group (NWL)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $25.80 from $30.00

  • Retained to neutral from at UBS; Price Target: $29.00 from $30.75

• Origin Energy (ORG)

  • Retained to buy from at UBS; Price Target: $11.80 from $12.00

• Predictive Discovery (PDI)

  • Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.430 from $0.400

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Initiated at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $5.90

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $1.600 from $2.50

  • Retained to hold from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.750 from $2.50

• Playside Studios (PLY)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.500

• Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

  • Retained to neutral from at UBS; Price Target: $19.50 from $25.20

• Perpetual (PPT)

  • Retained to buy from at UBS; Price Target: $23.00 from $24.00

• Perseus Mining (PRU)

  • Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.75 from $3.65

• Platinum Asset Management (PTM)

  • Retained to sell from at UBS; Price Target: $0.510 from $0.570

• Pexa Group (PXA)

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $15.50 from $15.55

• QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

  • Retained to buy from at UBS; Price Target: $24.60 from $24.40

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $116.00

  • Retained to buy from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $127.00 from $126.00

• Ramelius Resources (RMS)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.90

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained to sell from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.40

• Resolute Mining (RSG)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.550 from $0.450

• South32 (S32)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50

  • Retained to buy from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.30 from $4.50

• Scentre Group (SCG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.90

• Steadfast Group (SDF)

  • Retained to buy from at UBS; Price Target: $6.70 from $6.65

• Santos (STO)

  • Retained to buy from at UBS; Price Target: $8.00 from $8.15

• Super Retail Group (SUL)

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $15.70

• Suncorp Group (SUN)

  • Retained to neutral from at UBS; Price Target: $20.90 from $20.85

• Tasmea (TEA)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.85

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.50

• West African Resources (WAF)

  • Retained to buy from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.80 from $2.65

• Wildcat Resources (WC8)

  • Retained to buy from at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.300 from $0.500

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

  • Retained to neutral from at UBS; Price Target: $26.50 from $27.10

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

  • Downgraded to underperform from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $4.60 from $7.20

• Woolworths Group (WOW)

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $37.00

• Xero (XRO)

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $180.00 from $177.00

Scans