Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures plunge on Trump's tariff rollout

ASX 200 futures are up 42pts (+0.52%) as at 7:00 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Trump dropped a bombshell tariff announcement, including a minimum 10% tariff on all exporters to the US

• These tariffs charge as much as 49% on imports from Cambodia as well as 34% for China, 20% for the EU, 46% for Vietnam and more

• S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow futures briefly rallied after the blanket 10% tariff, but plunged after Trump announced country-specific numbers

• Its worth noting that ASX 200 futures markets close at 7:00 am AEDT and reopen around 9:50 am

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 opened lower, finished near best levels but Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement sent futures (blue) sharply lower (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished higher and near best levels but Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement sent markets sharply lower

• S&P 500 futures currently down 1.7%, Nasdaq futures down 2.5% 

• Hedge funds cut net exposure ahead of the tariff announcement, particularly in European and emerging markets (RT)

• Investors poured record $10.6bn into Europe ETFs, seven times the inflows recorded last year (RT)

• Gold funds see major inflows as Trump trade risks spur big wave of safe-haven buying (FT)

• China Q4 earnings top estimates by wider-than-expected margin following Beijing's stimulus push (BBG)

STOCKS

• US companies announced the fewest stock buybacks since the Covid pandemic (BBG)

• Newsmax tumbled 77% after surging over 1,000% in two days (CNBC)

• Amazon has put in a bid to acquire TikTok (CNBC)

• Visa offers Apple ~$100M to take over its credit card partnership from Mastercard (RT)

• Hyundai, Kia Motors post record US March sales ahead of tariffs (YH)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Chicago Fed's Goolsbee warns of consumer spending dip due to tariffs, but hard data still showing solid growth (BBG)

LIBERATION DAY

• Markets experienced a brief rally (S&P 500 futures up ~1.7% at 7:15 am AEDT) after initial comments about a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports, which is much lower than feared

• Markets tumbled after Trump pulled out the ‘Reciprocal Tariffs Chart’ which noted the following tariffs – China (34%), EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), Japan (24%), India (26%), South Korea (25%), Australia (10%) and more 

• Futures now down sharply – S&P 500 (-1.5%), Nasdaq (-2.0%), Dow (-0.5%) and Russell 2000 (-1.9%)

• Full reciprocal tariff list can be found via White House sources (X)

• This marks one of the largest waves of tariffs ever imposed in US history, seeking to generate more than US$600bn per annum

• Trump plans for other sectoral tariffs for semis, pharmaceuticals and potential critical minerals, not covered by the new regime

ECONOMY

• South Korea inflation unexpectedly prints 2.1% in March vs. 2.0% ests, reinforcing expectations for BOK hold (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• BHP considered spinning off iron ore and coal divisions as part of its medium-term growth strategy (RT)

• GenusPlus to acquire 100% of MGC Group for $10.2m cash, expected to be immediately earnings accretive (GNP)

• Star Entertainment survival hopes dashed as debt refinancing plan collapses (Bloomberg)

• Virgin Australia targeting potential IPO of around $750-800m (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Australian Agricultural Co: Re comments about Australia, Trump singled out beef exports. "But they ban American beef ... yet, we imported $3 billion of Australian beef from them last year alone," he said, adding that "we’re doing the same thing right now starting at midnight tonight.”

• Obliteration Day: The magnitude of these tariffs is just insane. The total tariff rate on Chinese goods are 34% on top of the current 20% (so 54%). "This is a massive shock to the economy," says Renaissance Macro Research (these guys called the 50 bp rate cut last year). They also said “it's surprising stocks are not down even more. Perhaps investors assume cooler heads prevail later. I would not hold your breath.” Bottom line, get ready for some volatile (and downward) price action on Thursday. Let's see how things trade after the initial gap down.

BROKER MOVES

• Bluescope Steel upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $26 from $25 (JPM)

• Mineral Resources downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $27 from $35 (JPM)

• Newmont upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $87.50 from $74 (JPM)

• Pilbara Minerals downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $1.60 from $2.50 (JPM)

• Treasury Wine downgraded to Neutral from Buy with $10.50 target (CITI)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 3 Apr: Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.014, Lindsay Australia (LAU) – $0.023, Ridley Corporation (RIC) – $0.048

• Fri 4 Apr: FFI Holdings (FFI) – $0.10

• Mon 7 Apr: Duxton Water (D2O) – $0.037, Gowing Bros (GOW) – $0.03, Shine Justice (SHJ) – $0.015

• Tue 8 Apr: Brickworks (BKW) – $0.25

• Wed 9 Apr: Clover Corporation (CLV) – $0.007

• Thu 10 Apr: Cadence Capital (CDM) – $0.03, Cadence Opportunities Fund (CDO) – $0.065, Cosol (COS) – $0.01

• Fri 11 Apr: WAM Leaders (WLE) – $0.047

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Adairs (ADH), AMP (AMP), Ampol (ALD), Bapcor (BAP), Bega Cheese (BGA), G8 Education (GEM), Generation Development Group (GDG), Helia Group (HLI), K&S Corp (KSC), Lycopodium (LYL), Orora (ORA), Perenti (PRN), Shriro (SHM), Solvar (SVR), South32 (S32)

• Listing: None 

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• ~7:00 am: Trump Tariff Announcement 

• 11:30 am: Australia Balance of Trade (FEB)

• 1:00 am: US ISM Services PMI (MAR)