Evening Wrap: ASX 200 flat, Flight Centre upgrades guidance + A small cap wins a $100 million payout

The Index gives back all of its early gains, Japan unexpectedly logs a trade surplus as exports to US and Europe jump, Australia's unemployment remained unchanged at 3.5% in June, an earnings upgrade from Flight Centre lifts the travel sector and Indiana Resources wins a $100 million payday.

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

Strong start but a breakeven close (Source: Market Index)

Markets

The ASX 200 finished around breakeven after a brief 0.8% rally in early trade, which makes it feel like a rather heavy day. Sector performance mostly followed US markets, with Tech and Banks higher while most other sectors declined. There's a lot of chatter about markets sitting in overbought conditions (especially for US markets). As for the ASX 200, we're up almost 10% from the July 10 low and just experienced a rather sharp intraday reversal. Does this raise the likelihood of a pullback?

Economy

Japan’s balance of trade was 43bn yen in June from a 1.38tn deficit in May.

• A surprise surplus against expectations of a 46.7bn yen deficit

• This marks the economy’s first surplus since July 2021

• Exports to the US and Europe rose 11.7% and 15.0% but exports to China fell 11%, the most since January

• Exports of production gear for chips fell 17.7% year-on-year, with shipments of chip components to China down 12.8% 

Australia’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5% in June.

• Analysts expected unemployment to rise to 3.6%

• “The rise in employment in June saw the employment-to-population ratio remain at a record high 64.5 per cent, reflecting a tight labour market in which employment has recently increased in line with population growth.” – Bjorn jarvis, ABS Head of Labour Statistics

Latest news

What happened today?

I'm thinking about evolving this segment into cool stuff that happened on the market today. What are your thoughts? Is this stuff interesting? Educational? Let me know at [email protected].

Flight Centre: Earnings from an intraday perspective

Flight Centre (ASX: FLT) upgraded its FY23 EBITDA guidance to $295-305m vs. prior guidance of $270-290m and consensus expectations of $280m. I love watching the intraday price action for an announcement like this because:

• The stock is gapping up pre-market

• The announcement reflects a sizeable upgrade against consensus

• Does this result in an intraday run (as more buying follows through after the open)

• Does this result in an intraday fade (after the initial gap up and buying, which tends to subside in the first 30-60 minutes of trade)

Flight Centre intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

The stock opens 2.0% higher and by 10:15 am is up 4.7%.

The other thing to think about is whether or not this drives positive flow for other travel stocks. The answer is yes.

• Webjet (ASX: WEB) opens +0.5% and closes +2.7%

• Helloworld (ASX: HLO) opens +3.1% and closes +9.4%

• Qantas (ASX: QAN) opens +0.9% and closes +1.9%

Where do analysts sit with Woodside?

Woodside (ASX: WDS) has a pretty interesting chart. It's been relatively rangebound since March 2022 and beginning to poke its head out.

Woodside weekly chart (Source: TradingView)

But from a fundamental perspective, do earnings and energy prices support a move higher?

The company posted its second quarter earnings on Wednesday, where production came in at 44.5mmboe, in-line with estimates of 44mmboe. Analysts were mixed following the result and some cut their price targets given the 6-month delay to Sangomar. Here's the gist of what analysts are thinking:

• The average price target among 19 ratings was unchanged at $35.43

• 42% were Buy rated, 42% Hold and 16% Sell

A more light hearted story

On a more light hearted note, here's a story about a microcap ($38.5m market cap) by the name of Indiana Resources (ASX: IDA).

The stock rallied 73% on Monday, 17 July after the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes ordered Tanzania (yes the country) to pay compensation for the unlawful expropriation of Ntaka Hill.

On Wednesday, 20 July, lawyers sent a letter of demand to Tanzania for a payment of US$113.6 million to the claimants. Indiana is a 62.4% shareholder of the combined claimants.

So this translates to roughly A$104 million or almost three times the company's current market cap.

The problem is: Getting the money out of Tanzania.

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +36.6% Nuix (NXL) – Guidance

• +7.9% Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• +6.2% Delta Lithium (DLI)

• +5.8% Stanmore Resources (SMR) – Q2 production

• +5.2% Mineral Resources (MIN) – Amends Marbl JV

• +4.5% Pact Group (PGH)

• +4.0% Flight Centre (FLT) - Earnings upgrade

• +2.4% QBE Insurance (QBE) – GWP and guidance 

• +2.3% Zip (ZIP) – Guidance

• +0.3% Endeavour Group (EDV) – Supports Vic Govt gaming reforms

Trading lower

• -14.6% Telix Pharma (TLX) – Earnings (Wed close)

• -9.8% Antisense Therapeutics (ANP) – Launches SPP

• -6.6% Northern Star (NST) – Downgraded by multiple brokers

• -4.7% Electro Optic Systems (EOS)

• -2.2% Austal (ASB) – US Navy contracts likely to restrict bidder approval

Broker notes

A few Goldman Sachs notes of interest:

Northern Star (NST)

• Rating and TP: Neutral with $12.00 ($12.59 on 19 July close)

• “NST reported group gold sales of 426koz, slightly below expectations though delivering FY23 sales of 1,563koz at the lower end of guidance, with an AISC of A$1,700/oz keeping FY23 costs to A$1,759/oz (and inside the top end of guidance).”

• “However, the key focus was the FY24 outlook, with gold sales volume guidance of 1.6-1.75Moz 3%/7% below prior GSe/VA consensus, and AISC of A$1,730-1,790/oz 6%/10% above prior GSe/consensus.”

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Rating and TP – Buy with $126.60 ($116.05 on 19 July close)

• “RIO reported a slightly weaker-than-expected 2Q23 result with iron ore shipments ahead of our estimate, copper and alumina production below, and realised pricing for Fe/Al/Cu in 1H23 broadly in-line.”

• “Despite the copper downgrade and weaker alumina and bauxite performance, we rate RIO a Buy (on CL) based on …” – Compelling relative valuation (vs. BHP and Fortescue), attractive FCF and dividend  yield, strong production growth in 2023-24 and Pilbara turnaround

Seek (SEK)

• Rating and TP: Sell with $23.50 ($24.47 on 19 July close)

• “Given macro uncertainty and sustained SEK Job index weakness (i.e. -2.3% MoM in Jun) we consider forward ANZ volume scenarios and a range of high frequency data.”

• “However our 12m TP is +4% to $23.50 given improved Growth Fund value (GSe 25% discount) and roll-forward in base year to FY25, offset by earnings.”

Scans